News AFTER Jan. Deadline

[shilton]

We all know by now that the January deadline for the merger will come and go and Dish will finally be able to put this thing to rest once the official call-off date lapses. I expect this month's Charlie Chat to be as boring as the last since all we will be hearing is "We are still fighting for the merger...blah blah blah"...But does anyone have any inklings as to what type of news we can expect to hear from Charlie and E* after January once the merger is called off. Can we expect to hear news of more locals, the great "Plan B" that Charlie says he does not have??? I am just wondering if anyone has any "dirt" as to what we can expect to hear from them once the merger is officially called off since we all know full well that they will have to shift into another mode to keep acquiring new customers while keeping the ones they currently have happy with new features, channels, etc??? I am just wondering what we can expect to see in 2003???

[Eyedox]

We can all thank Charlie for pissing away millions of our subscription dollars to pay off DirecTV to withdraw from the merger agreement.

[John Walsh]

Originally posted by Eyedox
We can all thank Charlie for pissing away millions of our subscription dollars to pay off DirecTV to withdraw from the merger agreement.

From watching Charlies actions in the past do you really think he will just hand over the money on January 22nd?

[FTA Michael]

Whatever cash Charlie does hand over (if any), don't think of it as a merger withdrawl fee. Think of it as a payment for the right to scrutinize D*'s books, see D*'s contracts with suppliers and sellers, and hamstring D*'s growth efforts for over a year. It may have been expensive, but he got some real value for it.

As for Plan B, Charlie's too good a businessman not to have one in his pocket. And as long as his contractual merger obligations last, it'll stay deep in his pocket.

Speculation? I'd guess he'd go for something that would spur rapid growth. He'd pick on something that D* doesn't do as well. How about ... adding a few extra channels to each premium channels, and then talking about how many more there are than D*? Or restructuring AT150 to come in around the Total Choice Plus price, and talking about the premium channels that are included in the price? Or picking up the stray D* channels he doesn't have yet (Oxygen, Trio, more?) and advertise that he offers more channels for the same price?

Any other guesses out there?

[Curtis0620]

D* had a look at Charlie's books also.

[dmodemd]

Looking long term Dish is in deep doo-doo as HDTV gains ground.

Once cable companies start carrying HDTV and include local stations (which they are doing now), Dish will not be able to provide HDTV of all the local channels they have now for decades!!

So this whole strategy of gaining market share by adding DMA's is going to hit a dead end.

[shilton]

Originally posted by dmodemd
Looking long term Dish is in deep doo-doo as HDTV gains ground.

Once cable companies start carrying HDTV and include local stations (which they are doing now), Dish will not be able to provide HDTV of all the local channels they have now for decades!!

So this whole strategy of gaining market share by adding DMA's is going to hit a dead end.

Bear in mind that both D & E are betting on changes in technology that will mean utilizing different compression methods to allow more services and less bandwidth. Plus I am sure between now and the time when ALL BROADCASTERS will be in HD, several new birds will be launched to help ease any congestion.

The switch to HD will be slow on all fronts. Smaller broadcasters are already asking the FEDS for extensions and most likely even more extensions will come as consumers will be hesitant to drop the money into the new technology as well. For a complete transition to all HD, one should reasonably expect a MINIMUM of 10 years. I would think in that time, the technology will develop in such a way that nothing BLOWS UP IN CHARLIE'S FACE.

Remember that only about 7 years ago, a speed of 9600 bps was super for a modem. Today, they are screaming at 56k over ordinary phone lines and Lucent technologies is working on a standard that will allow ordinary phone lines to handle data at a rate comparable to cable within the next 3-5 years.

I think there is really nothing to fret over here. Charlie would be stupid to not embrace as many DMA's as he can. Technology will catch up later.

[Geronimo]

Launching more birds wont do it. you need licenses to use the transponders. They had better hope the technology changes.

[Chris Freeland]

I agree it will likely be a decade before HD will be a major force. The average person will be satisfied with SD digital which D* and E* already provide. D* and E* will provide the National HD channels like the Premiums, Discovery HD, ESPN HD etc., it will be many years before the majority or programing is available in HD, by then technology will catch up. Most people that want local HD can supplement the satellite offerings with a decent antenna, unlike analog you will either get a great picture or not at all. E* and D* will likely carry one or two sets of the big 4 nets in HD for those who can not receive HD locals, like satellite was before locals on satellite. After the ota stations shutdown their analog channel, I suspect that the digital channels will also eventually end up on lifeline cable which will be another way for satellite subs to supplement their HD Satellite channels.

[DoyleS]

At some point he has to deal with the problem of getting a higher PQ on the highest demand channels. That likely means getting everyone onto a Dish 500 so that he can move channels around and use lower compression on the high demand channels. The PQ issue is a time bomb. Once subscribers are past their 1 year discount pricing, they are free to move back to cable or other service. HD locals for all practical purposes is only being broadcast in large markets. The old analog fuzzy picture problem is not there on OTA digital. In my case, I have no need of HD locals via satellite. They all come in great OTA. If you check the various HD forums, that is the case for most people in the larger metropolitan areas. What is not available is the balance of programming. ESPN, Movie channels, Discovery etc. As a first blush viewers would like to see this programing in a non artifact format. It doesn't have to be HD but it has to be good enough to watch on at least a 32 or 36 inch set. I don't think Ala Carte HD is viable in the long term. Right now the Discovery channel may be able to get away with it because it is unique but long term it is unlikely to fly.
In the current economy and political situation, you will see more money spent on personal items like entertainment. Just look at the ads. Home theater is a major push this year whereas 2 years ago it was just emerging. Screen sizes are moving up with prices coming down in all technologies CRT, LCD, Plasma. If your monthly bill is $30 on Cable or Sat, the motivation is to get a bunch of channels that you can't get over the air. If your Bill is up over $50 I tend to think that good PQ becomes an item that you expect. In the $50 category, the best PQ is likely to win. Both Cable and Sat pay their bills with $30 subscribers and make their profit with +$50 subscribers. The hardware and infrastructure costs are the same for both customers. The cost of switching is also not significant when the bill is $50/month. This may be biased with the way I would like to see things go but that is how I will make my decisions. I would look for this to really start shaking out over the next 3-4 years otherwise the Sat guys D* and E* are going to be left with the Rural market while the Cable guys dominate the metropolitan areas. I think the unfortunate item right now is that the Sat guys are forced into spending a lot of effort getting the must carries lined up.

..Doyle

[hectorshelagh2001]

Ques for Charlie: Are you going to go to Unvle Rupies Kangaoo Roast next Jan 22, 2003?