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dbkelly
12-19-02, 12:06 AM
Just curious, (now that the polls are closed), what was your reasoning behind your picks tonight? Did you vote for who you think would actually win S5, or strategize on who the people in front on you would vote for? ... and vote differently! The reasoning behind this is if you vote the same as the person(s) in front of you and you both get it right, you don't gain any points! Yes, you both get more points, but you're not increasing your standings. (Does this make sense?)



Cheers,
David

Mark Lamutt
12-19-02, 07:10 AM
I'll have the voting summaries up this afternoon. And by the way, my votes were: Brian, Helen, Brian, Jan, Jan, Brian (if I remember correctly).

timf
12-19-02, 08:24 AM
My thoughts were this. Assuming Clay doesn't win the first immunity challenge, he'll be the first to go (I assumed this would be the case). My thoughts were Brian would win the final challenge and be in the final two, but since the person who won the final immunity has never won the game, I picked Helen to be the person he goes in with and who ultimately wins the game.

Mark Lamutt
12-19-02, 08:57 AM
My thinking was this, and it's all based on Brian winning the first immunity challenge: The only way that Brian can get the votes to win is if he's up against Clay in the final 2. So, if Brian wins the 1st IC, his biggest threat in the 2nd IC challenge between Jan and Helen is Helen, so she has to go first. Then in the 2nd IC, whether it's a race or endurance type challenge, I don't think that Jan can possibly win just because of her age. I think that Brian is stronger than Clay at this point, so he wins the second IC as well. I think that Jan's either the first one out, or is the last place finisher in the 2nd IC. So, she's the next one to be voted out, leaving Brian and Clay as the final 2. All of the S-J people were really pissed at Clay, so they throw their votes to Brian. Brian wins.

Of course, I could be wrong... :D

Danny R
12-19-02, 09:07 AM
I know the promo's showed Brian with the immunity necklace, but I believe this is a subtle misdirection. In the past the final 4 immunity has always been a "fallen comrads" type challenge, and the survivors have gone to Tribal Council with the old winner still wearing the necklace.

While the setup isn't quite the same for fallen comrads, I think the F4 contest will still be held at Tribal Council, and thus Brian isn't an obvious win.

Going by that assumption, we see Jan in promo's still competing in a race of some sorts. Since Brian said Jan was expendable, she probably won IC4, and I believe that means Helen was the #4 vote off.

Going into the final 3, I think Jan will faulter at the race, as she usually does in these sorts of things. Thus she's the 1st eliminated.

Brian often succeeds at races and uber challenges, so I picked him to win that immunity.

For Brian, the choice of Jan or Clay is easy. Jan hasn't backstabbed anyone and is universally liked. I don't think he'll pull a Colby and pick her. He goes with Clay for Final 2.

Now I think Brian will easily win the final survivor... but here is where I had to think about THIS game. Since Brian is the obvious choice to me, I had to assume that CoryTV also picked him. If thats the case, then its very unlikely I'd have enough points to pass him to take the big prize of the 721.

Thus I had to vote contrarian, and I picked Clay to win. If Clay pulls off a miracle win, then I've got a fighting chance (assuming all my previous assumptions are correct) of taking the top prize.

dbkelly
12-19-02, 09:48 AM
DannyR,

Unfortunately, I'm right with you! And you're ahead of me too! Dang it!!!

I'm banking that CoryTV also votes for the obvious winner: Brian. Thus, I had to vote for Clay to have any shot at winning the 721!

How I think it will go down:
IC 13a - Jan
BOOT - Helen
IC - Clay (my alt. pick would be Brian)
BOOT - Jan
WINNER - Brian


However, since I'm behind, I had to play the odds! Here's how I voted:

IC (13a) - Jan
BOOT - Helen
IC (13b) - Brian
BOOT - Jan
WINNER - Clay


I only need 2 to pass you (DannyR), if Clay does indeed win, our picks are different enough that (hopefully) I could still pull it off.


My thinking on the first out of IC (13b), is Brian's plan is to let Clay win the IC, thus letting him choose who to take to F2 (Brian). But, something happens and Clay faulters, so Brian has to step up and win the IC to guarantee F2. I picked Clay as first out.

Danny R
12-19-02, 01:41 PM
Darn darn darn...

The Early show this morning released additional video of tonight's final (couldn't they have done this YESTERDAY!). Looks like Brian does indeed win F4 immunity.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/3409.shtml

belsokar
12-19-02, 02:08 PM
well my reasoning is quite skewed...I definitely think brian is the perceived easy win here...which is why I have him getting voted off first...I have clay winning the first immunity challenge, which is the only thing possible that should save him from getting voted off...hopefully, this turns into a 2-2 tie at council, 2 votes for brian (the women should be smart enough to remove the strongest link), 2 votes for helen or jan...in a tie situation, i'm going with one of the women winning any tie-breaking scenarios...

the final immunity challenge is generally an endurance one, and generally the women seem to do better at this...so I have jan (being older) out first, and clay not being able to outlast helen. Helen being smart, must vote out jan to have a chance to win...she has no problem taking clay to the final 2. And no one would vote for clay over helen...thus we have our second consecutive female survivor, helen...i figured this reasoning was the only way I could overcome 1st place...lets hope it works

Wildfire_36
12-19-02, 05:20 PM
IC - Clay, he needs it too bad and he knows it, he will win it
Voted - Jan the others all know that if they are up against her in the end they will not win
IC-Brian he is just a power house right now
Eliminate - Brian has the power, Helen has the drive, she needs it and wants it bad, she will fight harder
Voted - Helen, both know that going up against her she will win
Winner- Brian, who can stand Clay enough to vote him the winner!?!?:mad:  And I can't get first anyways, so might as well WAG it!  LOL

Danny R
12-19-02, 09:03 PM
Wow... I was 1 jury vote shy from pulling the prize out of Cory's hand. I closed the gap to just 6 points prior to the final winner poll. Bet you were sweating bullets there for a bit.

Congrats CoryTV!

Congrats to Mark for a perfect round too! He takes the #1 honorary position!

JRath looks like he passed me and holds 2nd place, dropping me to third. Also a perfect round.

This has really been fun! Thanks for letting us play.

timf
12-19-02, 09:35 PM
Congrats to both Cory and Mark, as well as both the second and third place contestants. At least I managed to squeak out a few points in the final immunity challenge - not that they count towards anything.

Wildfire_36
12-19-02, 10:04 PM
Congrats guys! I got it all wrong but the winner! Oh well it was fun!

Gonna enjoy the reunion show now!

dbkelly
12-19-02, 10:05 PM
Congrats to CoryTV. A well deserved win.


Mark, thanks for all you hard work putting the polls together each week, and of course to Dishdepot.com for donating the 721 player.



Cheers!
David


PS - I hope we do it again for S6.

Mark Lamutt
12-19-02, 11:05 PM
Survivor: Amazon starts in February. I'm not going anywhere...who's up for the DBSTalk Survivor: Amazon Contest? :D

I've posted the preliminary results. I've got a lot of checking and verification to do tomorrow, but I hope to have to official results by the end of the day tomorrow. Damn I wish I was elligible to win!!! Congrats to the winners and to everyone that played! I had a great time running this thing and I'm glad you guys had fun playing. Really makes all of the work worthwhile!

Danny R
12-20-02, 09:11 AM
I finished watching the reunion show, and have come to the conclusion that Helen cost me the game!

Because she told Ted that Clay was a racist redneck, I think that totally biased Ted from sending his vote Clay's way.

I'm going to go over to Helen's house and ask her to buy me a 721. ;-)

Hehheh. It was a lot of fun. My own unofficial checking seems to indicate I'll win the tie-breaker for 3rd. I can't wait for Survivor - Amazon. Maybe Dish will have released the 921 by then!

Scott Greczkowski
12-20-02, 09:18 AM
Hats off to Mark Lamutt for doing an EXCELLENT Job running this contest! He put a hell of a lot of work into it, I hope it was excitiing for everyone who played!

Congrats to everyone who won!

Thank you to Dish Depot for the great prize! (And for whoever won the 721 remember DBSTalk.COM is your one stop shop for all kinds of 721 Help, News and Information.)

Thanks everyone for playinig!

JBKing
12-20-02, 12:15 PM
I forgot to vote. :(

But thanks for the thread and the hard work, Mark.