Will HD kill Satellite???

[shilton]

For weeks now, I have been reading here that HD is going to be the death of satellite tv and I am just not buying it. If and when HD becomes a problem for satellite, here is what I see.
Our government in its infinate wisdom will choose an "official" standard for satellite tv much as they are doing now with HDTV. Its a fact within a certain # of years, ALL local programmers will have to be in HD. Our government has already selected the standard. As a result any HD set will see any HD signal. If bandwidth becomes an issue, I see our government stepping in and choosing a standard for satellite thus allowing DISH and DirecTV and whomever else there may be to "share bandwidth" to help distribute programming across America. Basically in much the same manner as the phone companies share lines today. Each company must open up its lines to its competitors. If we were to say...ok Dish will carry 50% of the locals and DirecTV will carry the other 50% in its fleet and they must use the same compression and encryption technologies to deliver the signal...Boom suddenly there goes your bandwidth problem out the window.
It does not require a merged company...just some cooperation on their parts (with a little government arm-twisting) and the best part of all this...if they use the same technology, its becomes SO easy to switch back and forth from one provider to another if you choose. This could work, as each has its own unique programming to allow it to market itself to distinct audiences. D* has NFL Game Plan, E* does not...but they have different options for NBA, Soccer, etc...They each have their own unique offerings. All they really need to share is the bandwidth for locals and of course our Government in its wisdom would give each company tremendous tax breaks to convert its equipment over the the new "standard". See its so easy...Satellite WILL NOT die with HD. Somehow, someway, the companies, their millions and our government will not let it.

[Mike123abc]

Your theory wont work:

1. The government would never force 2 competitors work together if they do not want to, there is no national emergency for satellite television. The country does not face eminent threat. They specifically prevented the merger because they want competition.

2. Even if they both combined, HDTV LIL would still not have the bandwidth if they were forced must carry. It would take pretty much every transponder they have to do LIL. HDTV takes 4x the bandwidth of HDTV, two companies together is only 2x.

3. Who would pay for all new boxes to all the subscribers? Even at $250 each X 40 million would be $10billion.

4. Who would pay for the extra satellites to double the capacity?

It is not going to be done by the government, it will be done by satellite companies with new technology. Someone will figure out how to get more bandwidth through the satellite. Satellite probably find a way to compete, but looks like cable will have the upper hand soon and will probably take a few years for DBS to get things going again.

[Scott Greczkowski]

Just to correct what was said above the government is not forcing everyone to go HD, they are forcing them to go DIGITAL. Big difference.

Many stations are not going HD as they want to multicast (Sending 4 Channels out on 1 digital carrier) so they can make extra revenue.

Many stations are going to want cable and satelllite companies to provide their full signals including their multicast channels.

[shilton]

Originally posted by Scott Greczkowski
Just to correct what was said above the government is not forcing everyone to go HD, they are forcing them to go DIGITAL. Big difference.

Many stations are not going HD as they want to multicast (Sending 4 Channels out on 1 digital carrier) so they can make extra revenue.

Many stations are going to want cable and satelllite companies to provide their full signals including their multicast channels.
Pardon me...you are quite correct. The government is forcing stations to go Digital...but the fact is...they DID choose a digital standard so that any digital set will accept the signal. If things get too heavy, they will consider the same for satellite tv or any other broadcast medium. Case in point...all radio stations CURRENTLY broadcast in either AM or FM. ANY radio can pick up any station. Its a standard! It could be done to force all satellites to broadcast in the same standard, thus allowing them to share bandwidth. Think our government won't force companies to work together...think again. They already DID with phone service. One company MUST share its lines with its competitors, etc. No its not a matter of national security...but if will share the buyers best interests. If bandwidth becomes an issue...someone will find a solution. Sharing satellites is indeed a possibility although perhaps not the top choice of either company. it may be as close to the merger as they will ever get. And picture a day where their own unique offerings are so different that many households elect Dish and DirecTV in the same household thus supporting both companies. It could happen! besides...I still don't see the big push to HD for MANY years! As long as people's tv's work...they will wait to replace 'em.

[Mike123abc]

They forced wired phone companies to work together because they were a monopoly, they are not forcing new companies to share their stuff. There are at least 4 wireless phone standards (GSM, TDMA, CDMA, AMPS) that do not talk to each other. Also, phone companies are winning the court battle to make the forced openness unconstitutional.

[Bob Haller]

Well the FCC required sat radios second generation receivers to be compatible for either service.

I ALWAYS ask this...

WHO percisely can make a bigger profit on HD than simelcasting?

Or a profit in HD at all?

Tell me who going to make big bucks and then we will figure out how to carry it

[Mike123abc]

That is the problem of HDTV, it does not command more money from most people. It is more of a selling point now. People will go with HBO/Showtime to get the HDTV channel in the package. I personally have grown to like Discovery HDT, and would pay to see it since no commercial interruptions (they only have commercials at the end of shows). But, I have to wonder how many are like me and pay to see discovery.

The problem will arise if everyone else is offering HDTV and people grow to demand it. But, don't expect them to pay more for it, they will just want it after all it is just cable.

[Jacob S]

What if Dish only sells premium channels and if DirecTv only sells basic packages and another company only sells locals? They could combine their satellites and equipment without a merger. Kind of like DirecTv and USSB, only instead of merging, splitting, but doing some of the things a merger would do.

[LauraW]

Originally posted by Jacob S
What if Dish only sells premium channels and if DirecTv only sells basic packages and another company only sells locals?
If the they got together and decided to do that, it would be illegal. I think it's called collusion in the antitrust laws. Companies aren't allowed to agree to split up the market: "You take that segment and I'll take this one". Some folks where I work were talking about arranging a deal like this one time, and then our lawyer came back from vacation and freaked out. (We're in a different industry, but the same laws apply.)

If it happens by accident, however, it's OK. But when the Justice Department serves the subpoenas, there'd better not be any incriminating evidence. :eek:

-- Laura

[Jacob S]

What if one says they will go out of business if something is not done causing one to just sell one type of service and the other company still remain as is, but later on decided to use that other service on their satelite instead of its own? If a company was forced to go bankrupt or not be able to do it anymore in the beginning then I wonder if they would still think something of that.

[James_F]

You mean like USSB and DirecTV? Have two bills? Doesn't sound good to me....

[Bob Haller]

Well they could ooperate on sharing LIL carriage, and exchaNGE CHECKS EACH MONTH. bUT THIS WOULD REQUIRE A COMMON PLATFORM, and friendly owners.All of which is in doubt today.

[Jacob S]

A common platform and sharing satellites would save them a lot of money.

[Scott Greczkowski]

Originally posted by Jacob S
A common platform and sharing satellites would save them a lot of money.

Unfortunately this would require FCC and DOJ approval first. These are the same folks who shot down the merger.

[Jacob S]

I do not see how that is much different than allowing different satellite programmings to sell programming on the same c-band satellites. There would be more spectrum available for the FCC to sell too if they would merge some space together if they would not use all of the space they have now. If they had a common platform for all providers just like c-band it would be a lot better. I hope someone does this in the future.