Basra: Why they are not cheering

[James_F]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2884769.stm

On 18 March, the New York Times reported: "Military and allied officials familiar with the planning of the upcoming campaign say they hope that a successful and 'benign' occupation of Basra that results in flag-waving crowds hugging British and American soldiers will create an immediate and positive image worldwide while also undermining Iraqi resistance elsewhere."

The fact is that Basra is not undergoing a benign occupation. It has just been declared a military target by British forces which have come under attack from inside

Consider what happened in Basra last Saturday when there were air raids. The Qatari television channel al-Jazeera had a team in the city and it sent back graphic pictures of dead and wounded civilians which were widely shown in the Arab world.

But these images have been all but ignored in the West, which seems more interested in pictures of the American prisoners of war.

People do not take kindly to being bombed, even by "friendly forces".

There are two other points: the effect of years of sanctions and the effect of nationalism.

Although the sanctions regime allows for the provision of food and medicine, this is not always delivered to the poor.

Saddam Hussein is not blamed but the United Nations and the United States are.

The sufferers from sanctions may take time to be convinced that the invaders are bringing them relief.

Iraqi nationalism is another powerful influence.

Those who know the country say that it can hold people together, whether they are Kurds, Sunnis or Shias.

It appears to be a factor in the current phenomenon.

A coming together often happens to a people under siege, and a siege is what the Iraqis are now experiencing.


What happens in Basra will happen in Bagdad. This could get ugly and take lots of time. :(

He managed to talk not just to marines but to locals, one of whom Mustafa Mohammed Ali was a surgical assistant at the Saddam hospital in the city.

The sufferers from sanctions may take time to be convinced that the invaders are bringing them relief

He said that in fighting on Sunday bombs were dropped on civilian areas, killing 10 people.

That day, two dead marines were brought to the hospital and he made this admission: "When I saw the dead Americans I cheered in my heart."

And yet he did not support Saddam Hussein: "We don't want Saddam, but we don't want them [the Americans] to stay afterwards."


If those in southern Iraq don't want us why are were here?

[James_F]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2886235.stm

Now there might be an uprising against Iraqi forces by the local people. I can only hope that they will welcome US/UK forces in and not try and set up their own country.

[Timco]

I am sure those in Basra remember the last time we came rolling through in '91 and will temper their enthusiasm accordingly. They may feel that we could stop the war at any moment and go home, leaving them alone with Saddam again...

[Jacob S]

Anything we have seen so far will not compare to what we are about to see when we get really close to Baghdad.

[BobMurdoch]

Right now they are still afraid of the Republican Guard lurking in their midst. That willl change once the enemy troops are more afraid of us rather than the uprising people. But until that time don't be surprised that people aren't sticking their heads out until they are sure that they won't be chopped off.

[RichW]

Its not so much the Republican Guard as the influence of the secret paramilitary forces that has been present in the area for years. They are essentially Saddam's secret police which has been used to keep the people in line. This is how Saddam was able to get a large vote for him in the last sham of an "election".

If we learn anything from Afghanistan, our military needs to be present there just long enough to secure the area but not overstay its welcome. Reports from Kondahar in Afghanistan say that many people there want the US out. One frustrated citizen there was even quoted as saying "We were better off with the Russians".

I also fear that once the "War" ends in Iraq, guerilla warfare will begin. And then is Iran simply waiting to take land away from a defeated Suni Iraq?

[Bogy]

I think we are missing the point made in the quotes James gave. Iraqis may not like Saddam, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to like us. They may see it as a choice between 2 evils, not the evil/good choice we see it as. I heard an interview with a man in Basra whose entire family was wiped out by U.S. bombs. We might say that this was just collateral damage that was worth it in the goal to depose Saddam. He sees it as the actions of a foreign nation who have killed everyone near and dear to him.
Ever hear the saying, "Better the Devil you know." They at least know the devil that is Saddam. He is their devil. If there is an uprising in Basra, our best bet will probably be to take a back seat and only offer aid if it is asked for. Otherwise, it will just be seen as another attempt by America to take their country. The public Relations of not appearing to be the conquering nation is going to be very important. The Marine who raised a U.S. flag last week in his exuberance, made a big blunder. Hopefully, all Marines, etc. now have gotten the message this is not appropriate behavior.
The replacement Regime is now in the process of being chosen by Washington. It will be important that Iraq sees this as "their government" and not just America's puppet regime. Otherwise, Iraq will see no difference between Saddam and us.

[firephoto]

Originally posted by Bogy
I think we are missing the point made in the quotes James gave. Iraqis may not like Saddam, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are going to like us. They may see it as a choice between 2 evils, not the evil/good choice we see it as.
The differences are so subtle, not that they would consider not living with the fear of losing body parts as a good things. Definitely two evils. :rolleyes:

I heard an interview with a man in Basra whose entire family was wiped out by U.S. bombs. We might say that this was just collateral damage that was worth it in the goal to depose Saddam. He sees it as the actions of a foreign nation who have killed everyone near and dear to him.
If his whole family was wiped out by a bomb, then where was he at? Shooting at Brits perhaps? hmmmm Smart people don't wander out in the streets to watch a war if they are peaceful creatures. (I hope I'm not speculating more than you are)
Ever hear the saying, "Better the Devil you know." They at least know the devil that is Saddam. He is their devil. If there is an uprising in Basra, our best bet will probably be to take a back seat and only offer aid if it is asked for. Otherwise, it will just be seen as another attempt by America to take their country. The public Relations of not appearing to be the conquering nation is going to be very important.
The British are fighting in Basra, we moved toward Baghdad. (someones speculating again too)

The Marine who raised a U.S. flag last week in his exuberance, made a big blunder. Hopefully, all Marines, etc. now have gotten the message this is not appropriate behavior.
The flag that was lowered about as fast as it was raised? Not to mention it could have been a signal to the
other forces in the area. (sorry, I had the urge speculate)

The replacement Regime is now in the process of being chosen by Washington. It will be important that Iraq sees this as "their government" and not just America's puppet regime. Otherwise, Iraq will see no difference between Saddam and us.
I think you have good intention with this statement but it wasn't worded in the best way. Wouldn't Iraqi leaders overseeing Iraq be seen as their leaders and not puppets? Experienced international people will shadow them sort of to help them with the day to day gov't blah. How many not militant gov't positions are there in Iraq now? Not much of an experienced pool to draw form you know.

[Jacob S]

We will have to show them what our intentions are for them, not to take over but that we are doing this for their own good and that they need to learn the truth of all of this instead of lies that they have been hearing. Some seem to understand while others do not.