Sonic Blue D&M deal falls through, Replay to be auctioned off

[Kagato]

Well, the death knoll for Replay is sounding. D&M buy out fell through, so the IP is going to be auctioned off. I reiterate that I think Dish should buy the IP rights. They'd get Name Based timers, Shareing, etc.

[Cyclone]

Does Reply work with Dish Network?

[dbronstein]

I used a SA Replay for 2 years with Dish before I got my 721. It worked great, except for an occasional hiccup with the IR blaster.

I totally agree that Dish should go for this. The software in my Replay was much better than the 721, and not just because of the name-based recording. The menus and screens were laid out much better and were much more intuitive.

Dennis

[bogi]

I remember when they use to make graphic cards,modems ,and they were the only viable competitor to sound blaster with Sound Cards. Unfortunately when Diamond got bought out and changed its name it went all down hill.

[Scott Greczkowski]

I totally agree that Dish should go for this.

I second this!

What Replay has done is something that Echostar has been trying for a long long time to do.

Buying Replay would put the Dish PVR's on a platform where they deserve to be.

[marshalk]

I agree this would be a great idea. Such a good idea in fact that the odds of it happening I put at about zilch. Now if this were a dumb idea we could almost count on it. Am I being cynical?

...mk

[Richard King]

If they are simply doing an asset sale, Dish would miss out on the most valuable asset, the employees. Does anyone know if Sonic Blue still has any employees?

[Mike123abc]

Being able to buy the company assests and get a couple of the key employees would work wonders for Dish's PVR reputation. If it is cheap enough Dish would be foolish to let to get by them.

[James_F]

But at what cost. The value of ReplayTV goes way down if they don't plan to offer a SA version. That and I have no idea what they will do with the sharing of programs. I assume they'd not use it on their own Dish receivers since it opens them up to DCMA....

[Scott Greczkowski]

Hey as a 721 owner, I would say I would be willing to pay $99 to have my 721 "supercharged" with Replay power. :)

Just a thought anyways... :)

[Chaos]

I'll agree. Dish, do the right thing and buy Replay. I'll pony up some money to help defer the costs. It has to be cheaper than the whole D* mess anyway and will make your existing customers happy in the process.

[dbronstein]

I'd gladly play $99 to have my 721 running Replay software.

[goblin]

Count me in for $99 too! I had a 3030 ReplayTV before I moved to the 721 and really miss some of the features (name based recording the most).

Please please please -- it would really be a huge boost for E*.

[bunkers]

Not to mention that if they bought the ReplayTV division, that they would be able to effectively allow either SA or bitstream recording options.

If they record the compressed bitstream from DISH, the recording capacity would effectively double or triple.

I think the ability to both record a bitstream AND record SA -- would be huge.

[bunkers]

And at present, ReplayTV has about as much claim to the PVR patents as TIVO does. This is a chance for charlie to claim a piece of the PVR proprietary land grab. Legally, its a cheap way to buy some legitimacy and also opens up name based recording potentially. I would say the most likely scenario if they did take over the business would be to (a) continue existing operations and use monthly fees to fund itself in large part. (b) work on adding the DISH compressed bitstream as a recording option -- and (c) integrating the EPG to work with DISH better, or as needed. This effectively gives dish a competitive device to compete against the TIVO, and most recently, the TIVO with home media options. Replay has all that and MORE. It also sharing, which in newer homes, eliminates some of the negatives of satellite (1 rcvr/1tv).

[James_F]

So wait, you guys want Dish to get into the stand along PVR business? I mean how are they going to make money because they will really overpay for ReplayTV if they are just going to use it as a replacement 721. There is NO way Dish investors will let this happen. Now, maybe Dish could go in with someone and own part of a LLC that they could then use to augment their PVR technology, but going alone would be a huge waste of money since the value of ReplayTV is in its ability to work with any TV or Cable system.

[Kagato]

Well, it depends on if any potential buyer wanted to the screw the Present replay subscribers. A shell company could buy Replay, that company could fully license Replay IP to who ever. The shell company goes under, E* still has rights to the IP. Replay Subs screwed as they don't have any guide info.

On the other hand let's look at what replay needs in order to function:

1) Guide Data
2) Dial In Connections
3) Software Maintance
4) Warranty/Support

E* already does all 4. In addition, they have a much larger customer base already using Guide Data, and Dial In lines. I would be willing to wager that E* pays a lot less on a per subscriber than Sonic Blue ever did. So assuming that they stoped making the SA Replays and just supported existing subscribers they could actually be making money per subscriber from day one. Dish get's IP. Replay users keep paying for their service, and Tivo gets to own the SA PVR market.

[James_F]

But they will be bidding against companies that will factor in selling ReplayTV to everyone. How can they outbid one of those companies if they don't market the box to everyone to gain the extra revenue. Believe me I'd like to see Dish license ReplayTV for my parents sake, but I just can't see them making this work by themselves.

[Scott Greczkowski]

Originally posted by James_F
So wait, you guys want Dish to get into the stand along PVR business? I mean how are they going to make money because they will really overpay for ReplayTV if they are just going to use it as a replacement 721. There is NO way Dish investors will let this happen.

Hold on a second here....

The Dish investors have NO voice (that means ZERO) because the deal only needs the vote from one man who is the MAJORITY stock holder. And that person is Charlie Ergen.

It's his ball and he will decide if he wants to play or not, the rest of the investers just go along for the ride if they like it or not.

I personally would buy Replay and discontinue the stand alone boxes, or I would sell "Stand alone" replay units with Echostar tuners built in. :)

I hope he goes for it.

[James_F]

So you think Dish will pay over $40 Million for the assets of ReplayTV? D&M was willing to pay at least that so they will have to outbid them. $40 million is too much when they could just license it for much, much less and still get the same product.

[jeffwtux]

"40 miiillllion dollars" ?!?!?

I hope that was an attempt at "Dr Evil" like sarcasm, because $40 million is nothing. If they could put themselves at the top of the heap of PVR technology, $40 million would be a steal. That probably LESS than $100 per PVR customer in 1 year.
Frankly that's a slam dunk if it's $40 million. How many 508s have they sold for $199 to existing customers? They lose more than $100 on that right now. If they buy Replay and pass that cost on, that will be the "free market". I doubt anybody will have a problem with that. I say go for it, Chuck.

[James_F]

Why buy it for $40 Million when they can license it for much less? What makes you think Dish would ever do this considering how cheap they have been in the past? It appears that they think they know PVRs better than anyone....

This is just speculation and I fail to see anything that point to this happening... I would think Dish would be as close to buying TiVo as they are to buying ReplayTV.

[Scott Greczkowski]

$40 million is NOTHING if it helps Dish gain respect in the PVR marketplace.

I bet Charlie would be willing to pay $40 million to get all the Dishplayers to disapear. :)

[James_F]

Originally posted by Scott Greczkowski
I bet Charlie would be willing to pay $40 million to get all the Dishplayers to disapear. :)
That I'd agree with... :lol:

But we won't know what this company might go for...

Have you heard anything from Dish about this Scott?

[Scott Greczkowski]

Nope things are very quiet from Dish. I expect to hear some big things soon (although I have no idea what those big things may be)

It's just too quiet!

[Mike D-CO5]

I agree with everyone else on this thread, buying replay would help dish finally be on equal footing with Directv and Tivo. Directv dvr powered by Tivo and Dishnetwork pvr powered by Replaytv.

[Randy_B]

Remember Dish is already the number PVR provider. But they have nearly zero visibility in the media coverage of PVRs and associated technology. Even though Replay is spiraling down the drain, they still get a mention in just about every related article. That is millions of $$$ of free publicity they can't get any other way. Also, just about every advance that Tivo makes will benefit DirecTV and thus come at a cost to Dish's edge in that market and move them back from DirecTVs subscriber lead. However if Dish can increase their PVR offering then every advance in their PVR sector will bring them closer, more quickly to subscriber parity with DirecTV. I also think Dish has a very unique opportunity to "buy" respect and leverage their current lead in the PVR market to really own a huge chunk of this growing sector.

I am not sure that auctioning the assets will cost any one company the $40M the D&M offered. Dish may able to "subsidize" another buyer by making a lucrative licensing deal with them for Replay software. This other company could then try and work the SA market relying on Dish's lease the license arrangement. Dish could reciprocate and provide them the guide and software/delivery experience and services. Just another possible option.

There are lots of possibilities coming out of this auction. It wil be very interesting to watch the news on tis one.

[James_F]

That is the key. What if TiVo views this as an opportunity to remove a competitor? They might be willing to spend $100 million on ReplayTV. With Dish PVRs, Microsoft XP Media Center Edition and other PVRs, I doubt antitrust would be an issue for a TiVo purchase.

[Kagato]

The fact is Dish is fighting a two front war. On the one hand "Tivo" is a well reconized word. I hear it at least once a week on the night time talk shows. Tivo is paired with DirecTV, and executes extremely well on the technical merit of the product. (They just don't know how to keep marketing costs in check). On the other hand is the cable companies. As they roll out more and more Digital Cable they are going to get better quality. And VOD from cable is nipping at the heals.

Buying replay provides branding, IP, and, depending on the terms of the debt, it may provide additional income.

There are other options too. A partnership between Dish and JVC would be interesting. 20 Mil each, full IP sharing. JVC could do the SA units, Dish could leverage it's existing Dial and Guide Data services, plus handle DBS units.

[Jacob S]

Good point, Tivo would be more likely buying it out than Dish would. I also doubt Dish would buy them out because they could put that money in their own pvr product to make it better.

[Scott Greczkowski]

Tivo is just trying to stay afloat themselves, I don't think they have the money to blow on something like this (no matter how wise a move it would be)

[Jacob S]

Dish and the cable companies have more money available to just buy it out. Do you think a cable company would do that to offer it for their cable systems? Since a lot of cable is digital now they would probably want a one receiver product instead of an add on unless they wanted to be able to use the receivers they have right now in production along with the existing ones from the past and analog services. It would work good with the tv's that are getting cable descramblers built inside them as well since they will not have a pvr device with them.

[Randy_B]

As Scott said, Tivo is carrying too much debt to get into the bidding and I doubt that GM will, and I am sure Sir Rupert is rather distracted. I am sure Tivo's dream is Replay being splintered among the bidders and becoming unviable in the SA market.

I like kagato's idea. JVC/E* partnership. JVC has the wherewithall to make a run in the SA market. With E* "giving" them the guide services, that would eliminate a consdierable cost of entry. Could really be a win/win for the both. I am sure JVC would love to take a shot at Sony in the PVR HW market.

[James_F]

My point was more that we might not even know what companies might want to grab ReplayTV.

[Kagato]

The problem is I don't think the cable companies (nor a STB maker like Sci Atlana) are too keen on Replays file sharing outside the house capibilities. This brings up the point that any potential buyer may have to orphan existing subscribers in order to skirt the pending law suits that Replay has against it by the TV networks and the MPAA.

On the other hand, Replay does have a settlement and cross licensing agreement with Tivo. Who ever would buy Replay would not only have Replays IP, they would also be imune to any suites Tivo may want to file. That's extremely attractive to a number of companies. This is also the reason Tivo doesn't need to buy out Replay. They are already teamed with Sony, philips and hughes... What's there to fear?

I think the attracted players would be, Pioneer (for both their cable and comsumer divisions), Dish, and JVC. Although you could see a Goldstar or a Samsung come out of left field on this one. Of those, only Dish has the infrastructure to deal with this product in place. Everyone else would have to start from scratch.

[Mike D-CO5]

DISH ARE YOU LISTENING!!!!

[Jacob S]

Yes but would it cost more to buy Replay than the rights for the featuers Tivo has?

[msanto]

Originally posted by Jacob S
Good point, Tivo would be more likely buying it out than Dish would. I also doubt Dish would buy them out because they could put that money in their own pvr product to make it better.

Although it's possible for Dish to put more work into their own PVR line, it's a lot faster to market and may in fact be cheaper in the long run to buy the SW.

Realistically, with the new Tivos coming out, Dish needs to upgrade its PVRs FAST in order to compete.

I'm starting to get buyer's regret over going w/ Dish.

[James_F]

I doubt you'll be able to upgrade the existing PVRs anyway. Why would they want to bother with that? They'll want you to upgrade to the new PVRs anyway.

[msanto]

Originally posted by James_F
I doubt you'll be able to upgrade the existing PVRs anyway. Why would they want to bother with that? They'll want you to upgrade to the new PVRs anyway.

I doubt that they'd actually be that stupid. It's akin to getting new FW for my router, say, or a new OS for a Palm. Why should I buy new HW if I just invested big $$$ in their 721? A smart company would realize that, and not want to alienate their older customers.

Besides, there's no reason the HW needs upgrading. The SW is the only thing that should need upgrading. I'd be willing to pay for a SW upgrade to something "Replay-based".

[James_F]

Why would you expect them to do that? This isn't a firmware upgrade. Its like buying a desktop from Dell and 1 year later asking them for the latest OS. :rolleyes: This isn't a bug fix.

[Randy_B]

Hmm, Yeah that is exactly what I would expect. For $15 eMachines upgraded my daughters computer from ME to XP (more than a year after I bought the computer). Why wouldn't Dish, if they bought Replay software, and the 721 and/or 50x could run it, offer the new software for their HW for a reasonable fee?

The question is why WOULDN'T they. :rolleyes:

[msanto]

Originally posted by James_F
Why would you expect them to do that? This isn't a firmware upgrade. Its like buying a desktop from Dell and 1 year later asking them for the latest OS. This isn't a bug fix.

If you bothered to read my ENTIRE post, I said, I would be willing to pay for something "Replay-based". I'm not saying I want the SW for free. But there's NO reason the SW can't be upgraded. :rolleyes:

And if I bought a Dell, no I wouldn't expect them to give me the OS for free, but I would expect the HW that I spent big bucks on to support a new OS (at least if the OS is introduced within a couple of years). In this case, the 721 is essentially a computer running Linux, and a pretty new model, so there's no reason it can't support the new SW.

[mjschuyler]

E* buying into Replay sounds like a great idea for E*! Does Replay use Linux software like the 501, 508 and 721? If so wouldn't their software be an easy change over for E*? How about as James F suggests E* was to buy the rights to the software. If they wanted to keep control of Replay software they could spin off Replay as an other company to continue old Replay business ( maybe to the existing employees). Then if the "New Replay Company" went belly up E* would be not be responsible for the older Replay business.

Are there any screen shots of the Replay guide on the net? How fast would it be if it was in an E* receiver? Could it download over the satellite to the hard drive?

PVR's will be the driving force for any programming provider. They have been slow to take off but now cable systems are starting to use them use will snowball. Once you've had one it's very hard to go back to a standard receiver and VCR!

[Kagato]

I was under the impression that the new replays were linux based. There is also a lot of hacking you can do with it. Create a big video storage server on your PC. Expand the drive. Pretty cool stuff. Too bad they couldn't make it. Although, considering how much this thing is hacked, I'd guess even if replay goes under you could roll your own guide server.

[James_F]

Originally posted by msanto
But there's NO reason the SW can't be upgraded. :rolleyes:
OK so you put the word "no" in all caps. Where is your proof that this can be done? You don't have any idea if it can be done. Just because the 721 runs on Linux doesn' t mean it can support ReplayTV. I am sure there are custom chips that need to be addressed and code updated. Expecting Dish to provide this at cost to a small amount of 721 owners is not very smart. Either everyone gets or none. What happens if this upgrade costs $99 (even if they could do it). Not everyone will be paying for it and Dish could lose millions on it. This isn't really an upgrade anyway, its a total rewrite of the software.

And if I bought a Dell, no I wouldn't expect them to give me the OS for free, but I would expect the HW that I spent big bucks on to support a new OS (at least if the OS is introduced within a couple of years). In this case, the 721 is essentially a computer running Linux, and a pretty new model, so there's no reason it can't support the new SW.
:bang Uh, there is no expectation that any computer can run an OS 1 year later. Where do you get this idea from? No manufacturer would ever claim this. Anyway where does it say on the721 that it is upgradeable? I buy a Dell and install Linux on it 1 year later. The Dell has a special network card that linux doesn't support. You can't be serious that Dell should support an OS that they had no idea would exist at a later date.

Face it, Dish is not going to buy ReplayTV and even if they do, they won't be upgrading any existing models even if you are willing to pay $200 for it. The precedence that this would set would be hurtful to Dish in the future.

[Jacob S]

The 721 is Linux based so I assume that what you are talking about can be done with the 721. I think the dishplayer is also Linux based, the graphics look nearly the same.

I think that it would be stupid to have to buy a new receiver everytime somene wanted to upgrade. This is why I stress that the receivers need to be made to be upgraded. Do you remember those c-band receivers that had a removable board for their encryption? They have an upgrade option for their encryptionWhy do they not do that with these receivers or have an add on board for more memory and for added features? Especially for the high priced PVR receivers.

Would you want to buy a new computer everytime there was an upgrade or an advancement in technology? That is what updating drivers and software is for. PVR's are a type of computer in a sense. Dish would lose a lot of customers if they had to come out with a new receiver to advance their pvr technology, especially after how much the customers had to pay for the receiver, was told it was upgradable via satellite, and if another one would come out then they would more likely go through another company.

[James_F]

Originally posted by Randy_B
Hmm, Yeah that is exactly what I would expect. For $15 eMachines upgraded my daughters computer from ME to XP (more than a year after I bought the computer). Why wouldn't Dish, if they bought Replay software, and the 721 and/or 50x could run it, offer the new software for their HW for a reasonable fee?

The question is why WOULDN'T they. :rolleyes:

Sure if its that easy, but I can't imagine it is. While these PVRs are computers they have lots of custom programming on them that would have to be addressed. TiVo is charging $99 for the HMO "upgrade" which is a rip if you ask me but that "upgrade" isn't as advanced as this one would. Big is the ReplayTV OS? How long would it take to download? What happens if during the reinstall of the OS the 721 stops working? You won't have a disk to restart the process, its going to be a RMA back to Dish. I just don't see this as plausable solution when the 721 works.

[James_F]

Originally posted by Jacob S
I think that it would be stupid to have to buy a new receiver everytime somene wanted to upgrade. This is why I stress that the receivers need to be made to be upgraded. Do you remember those c-band receivers that had a removable board for their encryption? They have an upgrade option for their encryptionWhy do they not do that with these receivers or have an add on board for more memory and for added features? Especially for the high priced PVR receivers.
Because they don't have to. The 721 works and doesn't need an upgrade to ReplayTV software. Why didn't TiVo/DirecTV offer an upgrade from the original DirecTiVo to the new DVR?

Would you want to buy a new computer everytime there was an upgrade or an advancement in technology? Sometimes you have too. That is what updating drivers and software is for. PVR's are a type of computer in a sense. This isn't a drive upgrade, its a totally new OS. MacOS runs on a UNIX kernel just like the 721, but you wouldn't expect them to offer it as an upgrade option.Dish would lose a lot of customers if they had to come out with a new receiver to advance their pvr technology, especially after how much the customers had to pay for the receiver, was told it was upgradeable via satellite, and if another one would come out then they would more likely go through another company.
Why do you think this is an upgrade? Its not. Its a totally differenent PVR than the 721 currently is.

The only way I see this working is that you send you 721 to Dish, pay some money (at least $99) and they send you a "new 721" back with the ReplayTV software on it and a new remote. I have no idea what they will do about the dual tuners, and that might delay the roll out for a couple months. This isn't the type of upgrade that will get delivered over the SAT connection. Too risky.

[Randy_B]

Originally posted by James_F
Dish is not going to buy ReplayTV and even if they do, they won't be upgrading any existing models even if you are willing to pay $200 for it. The precedence that this would set would be hurtful to Dish in the future.

Hey, Baghdad Bob just said the same thing on CNN!:lol:

[jvidalc]

Just an FYI, the Replay OS is VxWorks.

[goblin]

I think a wholesale replacement of Dish PVR functionality with ReplayTV functionality would be very expensive and probably upset everyone (bugs, new UI, remote, etc.) -- but I don't believe anyone is suggesting such a dramatic change here on this forum.

As others have said, what E* needs to consider is whether leveraging ReplayTV software engineers, IP/patents, and codebase provides enough -enhancement- value to its own line of PVRs to warrant the purchase. This is a BIG question.

I've owned a ReplayTV and 721 I can confidently say that the RePlayTV UI and feature set is smoother and much more mature -- not in every way (I love my 721, that's why I switched), but there are definitely some ease of use and technical features that would be great to have.

E* supports or will support multiple models with different UI/features: 50x, 72x, 52x, and 92x. Each one probably has it's own programming team (but I'm just guessing). ReplayTV, however, concentrates its efforts on one model and sort of maintains older models as needed, much like E* maintains Dishplayers now. Using the ReplayTV programming team to integrate desirable enhancements into the currently evolving E* PVRs would be fabulous and the remotes would not have to change.

Paying $99 for an upgrade to such enhancements sounds great from my position, but maintaining 2 different (or even slightly different) codebases for each PVR seems like it would be very expensive for E*. Better to integrate new features and patent/IP from ReplayTV into the current PVR codebases over time. E* gets the brand recognition, IP/patent rights, and engineers.

Is it worth it to E*? Sadly, I doubt if any of us are in a position to say.

I would -really- love to see it happen though!

[James_F]

Originally posted by jvidalc
Just an FYI, the Replay OS is VxWorks.
Well there you go.... End of story on this one.... Its not a Linux OS. As I said, it would be lots of work to shoehorn it into the 721 let alone 50X.

[Randy_B]

Is "lots of work" enough to completely prohibit any consideration? I doubt it. E* needs something to differentiate it and then "own" that market. Tivo is still small, DirecTV doesn't own the technology and is still feeling its way along with DirecTivo. E* is the PVR leader )for the moment) and this is the best market (maybe the only) for Dish to seize and make its own. Replay (in some way) is probably the item that could do it. They don't have to use all actual the code to incorporate Replay capabilities and help fend of patent infringement suits.

[James_F]

Now that is true. They could easily add name based recording and other features without much of an update. That would be somthing that I would believe they would do, much like DirecTV "rebranded" the old DirecTiVos.

[Kagato]

When I started this thread I wasn't thinking of transfering the replay software wholesale. The idea was the get Replays IP, maybe support existing customers if possible, but actually porting no. There's no reason. The actual low level tech in the 721 is fine. It's the Interface. Name based recordings, season passes, comercial skips (*cough* like they'd ever bring that one over). If they wanted to they could steal the look and feel of the replay. Although that isn't a big gripe for me.

Now if they teamed up with JVC, maybe porting to a new platform would be an option. Maybe JVC would want to put together a slick DVD-R/DVHS PVR. They could use dish's existing infrastructure for getting the data to the customer. JVC does the hardware.

I don't think the price of replay is set in stone either. The price Fox is paying for D* is certainly a sign of that...