Bogy
04-07-03, 12:02 AM
The war has gone amazingly well from many standpoints. But will the rebuilding go equally as well?
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_np=0&u_pg=54&u_sid=703471
Oil funds may not fix Iraq after war
THE LOS ANGELES TIMES
WASHINGTON - To hear some Bush administration officials tell it, the reconstruction of Iraq will largely pay for itself, thanks to a postwar gusher of petroleum revenue.
"The one thing that is certain is Iraq is a wealthy nation," said White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer.
A look at the national balance sheet tells a different story.
Iraq will emerge from the war a financial shambles, some economists say, with a debt load bigger than that of Argentina, a cash-flow crunch rivaling those of Third World countries, a mountain of unresolved compensation claims, a shaky currency, high unemployment, galloping inflation and a crumbling infrastructure expected to sustain more damage before the shooting stops.
And the more oil Iraq produces to try to pump up its earnings, the more likely it becomes that prices will fall, leaving it no better off than before.
"Clearly, it's a basket case," said Dean Baker, co-director of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. "Once you start talking about it, you see what an impossible situation it is. I don't think the Bush administration is anxious to have that conversation."
Bathsheba Crocker, director of the Post-War Reconstruction Project at the centrist Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Iraq's oil money is not the panacea some Bush officials seem to think it is.
"It's unreasonable to think that oil is going to finance all of the needs of the country," Crocker said. "All told, there's just not enough money to go around."
Baker and Crocker are among a small but vocal contingent of nongovernment economists and foreign-policy analysts who say it's time for America to stop pretending that life in Iraq after the war will resemble something out of "The Beverly Hillbillies."
The reality, they say, will look more like Chapter 11. In their view, the only satisfactory solution is an international aid and debt-relief program as ambitious as the Marshall Plan that helped Europe recover from World War II.
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_np=0&u_pg=54&u_sid=703471
Oil funds may not fix Iraq after war
THE LOS ANGELES TIMES
WASHINGTON - To hear some Bush administration officials tell it, the reconstruction of Iraq will largely pay for itself, thanks to a postwar gusher of petroleum revenue.
"The one thing that is certain is Iraq is a wealthy nation," said White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer.
A look at the national balance sheet tells a different story.
Iraq will emerge from the war a financial shambles, some economists say, with a debt load bigger than that of Argentina, a cash-flow crunch rivaling those of Third World countries, a mountain of unresolved compensation claims, a shaky currency, high unemployment, galloping inflation and a crumbling infrastructure expected to sustain more damage before the shooting stops.
And the more oil Iraq produces to try to pump up its earnings, the more likely it becomes that prices will fall, leaving it no better off than before.
"Clearly, it's a basket case," said Dean Baker, co-director of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. "Once you start talking about it, you see what an impossible situation it is. I don't think the Bush administration is anxious to have that conversation."
Bathsheba Crocker, director of the Post-War Reconstruction Project at the centrist Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Iraq's oil money is not the panacea some Bush officials seem to think it is.
"It's unreasonable to think that oil is going to finance all of the needs of the country," Crocker said. "All told, there's just not enough money to go around."
Baker and Crocker are among a small but vocal contingent of nongovernment economists and foreign-policy analysts who say it's time for America to stop pretending that life in Iraq after the war will resemble something out of "The Beverly Hillbillies."
The reality, they say, will look more like Chapter 11. In their view, the only satisfactory solution is an international aid and debt-relief program as ambitious as the Marshall Plan that helped Europe recover from World War II.