Blu-ray has case of the economic blues

[Mark Holtz]

From SF Gate:

Blu-ray has case of the economic bluesThis year, Blu-ray won the war. Now it faces another battle.

Technology analysts say the world's economic roller coaster could mean consumers will be holding onto their money instead of buying pricey Blu-ray players and discs - the high-definition DVD format.FULL ARTICLE HERE (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/10/19/BUH113J4QH.DTL)

Quite frankly, I'm not surprised. The improvement of DVD over VHS was much greater than Blu-Ray is over DVD. While I can see purchasing a new title in BluRay, what library content is available that is worth the dip again to BluRay? The Matrix? Definately. Kill Bill? Maybe. U-571? Maybe not.

[funhouse69]

This is a huge dilemma for a lot of people I over almost 1000 DVD's and play them through a HTPC that upconverts it to 1080i and I think that the picture is awesome (as long as the source is). There is something to be said about having your entire movie collection in a single source and at your finger tips.

I think that Bly-ray is a fairly significant improvement picture wise over regular DVD but it isn't enough for me to go and spend the money for the same movie again. So at this point I don't have any intentions of buying or adding a Blu-Ray player to my Home Theater. I'm sure sooner or later I will have to.

[LarryFlowers]

A simple case of winning the battle and losing the war. Not an uncommon position for Sony to find themselves in (and they never seem to learn).
Mistakes:
1. Letting there be a format war in the first place
2. Premium level pricing for BluRay players
3. Failure to recognize that for most viewers, an upconverting DVD player is "adequate".
4. Failure to produce software in a timely manner.

On top of this you have on-demand services from DirecTV and Comcast, Netflix set top boxes that are HD ready (not enabled yet but that is just a matter of time), XBox 360 game consoles which already deliver HD movies, will receive an upgrade in November that will give it access to the Netflix on line library.
You have a number of online movie delivery services either up and running or will be shortly.

Internet access speeds are improving across the country, providing a ready delivery conduit for the movies. In 3 years I watched maximum internet delivery speeds ion my old neighborhood go from 3MB to 6MB to 12MB.

I doubt that even cutting the prices to $150 and tripling the size of the current library would help at this point, too little too late.

[MIAMI1683]

A simple case of winning the battle and losing the war. Not an uncommon position for Sony to find themselves in (and they never seem to learn).
Mistakes:
1. Letting there be a format war in the first place
2. Premium level pricing for BluRay players
3. Failure to recognize that for most viewers, an upconverting DVD player is "adequate".
4. Failure to produce software in a timely manner.

On top of this you have on-demand services from DirecTV and Comcast, Netflix set top boxes that are HD ready (not enabled yet but that is just a matter of time), XBox 360 game consoles which already deliver HD movies, will receive an upgrade in November that will give it access to the Netflix on line library.
You have a number of online movie delivery services either up and running or will be shortly.

Internet access speeds are improving across the country, providing a ready delivery conduit for the movies. In 3 years I watched maximum internet delivery speeds ion my old neighborhood go from 3MB to 6MB to 12MB.

I doubt that even cutting the prices to $150 and tripling the size of the current library would help at this point, too little too late.

You talk about the XBOX360 update coming. Take that a step further with all of the advertising that Microsoft is doing with that. I see accesories now in stores with a label that says. "Coming in Novembe Netflix Support" Now I am interested in this very much. It may change they way I spend my money. Get a netflix acct. and drop my pay tv service acct. It may wash, but with 2 360's. It may make sense just to d/l watch delete and repeat. This is huge to me. I can't wait. Your other reason listed are the reason the PS3 failed too. Nice hardware, but bad support.

[Chris Blount]

I agree. Blu-Ray has an uphill battle. I am purchasing Blu-Ray discs but not many as other delivery systems improve. I'm already finding that I use my Apple TV and PS3 much more than I thought I would for a quick HD movie fix.

If I do want a HD copy of a movie on Blu-Ray, I add it to my personal "Wish List" and wait for a sale or buy it used.

I've said this many times before and some can't seem to face this fact: We are starting to see the extinction of disc based media. Sure, it's years away, but its coming.

[Jason Nipp]

I find myself not buying titles I already have on DVD, just new releases.

OK I bought 1 title I already had, and that was National Treasure. And I only got that because I wanted National Treasure 2 and my wife didn't know which one I wanted so she bought both 1 and 2 on BD.

Oh and I do find the price of BD movies is coming down. In the very beginning as a very early adopter I paid well over $30 for titles. I think my first BD movie actually was like $43. My latest title was Iron Man and that only cost me $29 because all we could find was the collectors edition.

[Stuart Sweet]

I don't know if I'll backfill my old stuff if the features are the same but if a BD comes out with better features I'll likely buy it.

I agree that "hard" media will eventually go away but not until the infrastructure for HD on-demand delivery has reached enough people. In the meantime I expect that sub $150 players and BD's priced no more than $5 over DVDs will keep things looking good in the meantime.

But then again I bought an HD-DVD player.

[paulman182]

If the players come down low enough this holiday season, I'm afraid I won't be able to resist.

Netflix has an ever-growing library of BD and it's only $1 more per month.

[durl]

Blu-ray is on my list for Christmas. Rather than buying a stand-alone player, however, I'm going to add a BR drive to my media server.

[jazzyd971fm]

I find myself not buying titles I already have on DVD, just new releases.

+1 same here, the movies I have on DVD are fine enough for me. :)

[Stewart Vernon]

Depends on the titles and the prices... I have re-bought a few on either HD DVD or Blu ray of movies I really liked that benefitted from the HD upgrade (like Serenity, Terminator 2, Transformers, and so forth)... but others I have not. I bought Smallville Seasons 1-6 on DVD before I had any HD options... but I bought Season 7 on Blu this year. I am not planning on going back and getting Season 6 on Blu or Season 5 on HD DVD unless and until all seasons are available (on Blu at this point obviously).

I just rebought Sleeping Beauty and Nightmare Before Christmas. Both were good movies, and Disney's crazy "vault" scenario makes me go ahead and get the ones I want when they come out so I don't miss later... I missed Beauty & the Beast, for example, so I'll be snapping up the Blu ray when it comes out without waiting.

If Blu rays are available on super deals like B1G1 free scenarios then I consider the double-dip upgrade... otherwise I'm fine waiting for most. I would re-buy movies like Star Wars or Lord of the Rings, though, without hesitation.

[spartanstew]

I own almost 900 SD-DVD's.

I've had a BD player for 6 months.

I own 6 BD movies.

There's a handful of movies I'll buy in Blu Ray that I already own (not many) and as someone else said, will wait for sales on newer titles (or buy used).

I'm averaging about $15 per disc on the 6 that I own and won't spend much more than that.

[HIPAR]

I might bite when they offer a $199 player along with two disks in the box, two disks as a store promotion and five more by mail.

--- CHAS

[Sirshagg]

I might bite when they offer a $199 player along with two disks in the box, two disks as a store promotion and five more by mail.

--- CHAS

That might get me to bite.

For the last few years I'v purchased 99% of my DVD's from the previewed tables at Blockbuster and Hollywood Video. This gives me a $7-8 cost per disc so untill the Blue disc start showing up on those shelves I don't really see much need for the player. Also with nearly 1700 DVD's I don't see myself repurchasing titles on Blue (Already did that with LaserDisc - not again)

[Ron Barry]

Personally I think Blue-Ray will take a big jump when you can get a good BD player for sub 200 dollars. That is about a 2x cost from a decent SD Player.

As long as there are delivery mechanism available like Netflix and Blockbuster to get the content with buying it I think it had a chance. Depending on cost, I think I will get a Blue Ray player fox xmas also.

On the buying side. I have personally stopped buying DVDs period and I think the common person has also. Well stopped is a bit harsh but what I mean is that I am very picky of what I buy. Why? Because I have a subscription rental service at my disposal and DVDs take up storage. I think that is what most people do and If I recall DVD sales are down big time.

You get BD players below 200 with a good selection of quality units and people will buy. Online HD content is good, but I don't think you will see it at the size that blue ray can deliver for a long time. Also as time goes on expect to see better interactivity in BD and that is something Online has yet to tackle.

[djlong]

I already have a BR drive, I just have to buy the rest of the components to build a new media center computer around it. That machine will be my Blu-Ray/DivX/MKV/HD/SD/WhateverElseTheyComeUpWithInTheFuture player.

[Cmnore]

So, as far PC-based drives go - I'm gonna get the LG HD-DVD/Blu-Ray combo drive to replace my Toshiba HD-DVD drive. I only have one slot in my PC for a drive, so it'll have to do double-duty on formats. What are you guys going to use, and what are the cost of them?

[forbin]

I wouldn't have got a bluray player if I hadn't also wanted a ps3. For everything you get, it's a pretty good deal. I also run linux on it and use it as a general purpose media/file server. Not much ram, but works fine for a cheap living room computer. And it looks good.

I do notice a substantial picture quality difference and rent bluray when I can. The problem is the selection is lousy. It seems most new movies that are available for bluray suck. Aside from the occasional blockbuster I want to see like Iron Man (which kicked ass!), I can rarely find anything I'm interested in watching on bluray.