Press Release:DirecTV announces 3rd quarter '08 conference call,financial results

[Steve615]

http://investor.directv.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=342116

Scheduled for Thursday,November 6,2008 at 2 PM ET.
Jon Rubin,Senior VP of DirecTV financial planning and investor relations is scheduled to host the conference call/webcast.

[n3ntj]

In my crystal ball, I foresee D* discussing a brand new feature to their HR2x lineup at this meeting where there are two feeds buffered at the same time and the customer can swap between these 2 concurrent live buffers.

[Grentz]

Interesting, I wonder if they will give an update on subscriber additions as well. Always interesting to see ;)

[Steve615]

Giving this a bump so it doesn't get buried in the pages of threads going now. :)

[Ken S]

In my crystal ball, I foresee D* discussing a brand new feature to their HR2x lineup at this meeting where there are two feeds buffered at the same time and the customer can swap between these 2 concurrent live buffers.

Highly unlikely they would be talking about DVR features during a financial call.

[Stanley Kritzik]

In my crystal ball, I foresee D* discussing a brand new feature to their HR2x lineup at this meeting where there are two feeds buffered at the same time and the customer can swap between these 2 concurrent live buffers.

From your mouth ....

Go for it!

Stan

[David MacLeod]

I'd be interested if they address the installer issues and how this is affecting new and existing customers.

[Herdfan]

Highly unlikely they would be talking about DVR features during a financial call.

They have before.

[Steve615]

T minus 2 days. :)

[Stanley Kritzik]

In my crystal ball, I foresee D* discussing a brand new feature to their HR2x lineup at this meeting where there are two feeds buffered at the same time and the customer can swap between these 2 concurrent live buffers.

From your mouth to .....

Stan

[Ryan415689]

edit for content.

[ATARI]

They will probably mention the wirless Linksys DOD connection and the plans for a faster network adapter next year (the WET610N) and the HR23.

Other than the usual finacial junk... thats my guess.

I concur.

Anyone expecting a TiVo update is going to be disappointed.

[bonscott87]

They will probably mention the wirless Linksys DOD connection and the plans for a faster network adapter next year (the WET610N) and the HR23.

Other than the usual finacial junk... thats my guess.

Highly doubt they will mention any of that. These are simply financial results calls and rarely have any detailed insight on hardware or channel launches unless someone asks the direct question on it. But most questions obviously have to do with their bottom line.

[Sixto]

Here's the transcript from the last call (Q2-2008):http://seekingalpha.com/article/89864-the-directv-group-inc-q2-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

So you guys can get a feeling for what they talk about ...

[bonscott87]

Anyone expecting a TiVo update is going to be disappointed.

I would bet that to be true. The past 2 financial calls haven't mentioned Tivo at all and nobody has even asked that question. Only mention from DirecTV about Tivo was the initial press release, that's it. So it's pretty obvious that neither DirecTV nor the street expect the Tivo deal to be a big deal on their bottom line. If a box gets shown at CES then I'd expect some mention perhaps in the 4th quarter call in February.

This is a HUGE thing for Tivo of course and they mention it every 5 minutes it seems to try to keep their stock price up. ;)

[Sixto]

Yep, during the Q2-2008 call on 8/7/2008 the word "TiVo" was never mentioned.

Edit: Sorry, scratch that. The TiVo deal was not announced until 9/3/2008.

[harsh]

Interesting, I wonder if they will give an update on subscriber additions as well. Always interesting to see ;)The subscriber additions are predicted to be 20% lower than the previous year's third quarter by Craig Moffet of Sanford C. Bernstein. http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6611431.html

Craig has been wrong before.

[cforrest]

Craig is a cable guy anyway, giving buy ratings to most of the cable stocks. So he has to try and punish cable rivals, satellite and phone companies, in statements when he can IMO.

[Shades228]

The big topics of this call will be, customer acquisition, churn, sac, arpu change, equipment cost vs equipment sold, targeted marketing for high value customers, and net cash worth.

The only reason they would talk about upcoming tech or programming changes is to mollify share holders if some of these values are lower then projected.

[bonscott87]

The subscriber additions are predicted to be 20% lower than the previous year's third quarter by Craig Moffet of Sanford C. Bernstein. http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6611431.html

Craig has been wrong before.

Wouldn't surprise me at all with the economy the way it is. Most people I know are just staying with what they have and reducing their service. BUT, DirecTV does always get a Sunday Ticket boost in the 3rd quarter so we'll see. That may offset many of the losses due to the economy.

[Ken S]

There are some other concerns for DirecTV. Price competition is beginning to heat up. TWC still isn't charging for HD in most areas, FIOS announced they were decreasing rates.
As the number of real/cared about national HD channels begins to even out among the providers it goes back to commodity pricing. The land-based guys get a big advantage here because of the ability to package tv, phone and internet.
It'll be interesting to see what DirecTV's projections are and what questions they're faced with.

[Sixto]

One thing they may comment on is the status of DirecTV-12 ...

Be interesting to hear the wording (if referenced).

[RAD]

Here's the link to the press release with the results, http://dtv.client.shareholder.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=346114 . Looks like the made money and had a net increase in subscribers again. It will be interesting to see what Dish announces on Monday, do they continue the downward slide on subscribers or did the TurboHD promo turn them around?

[Greg Bimson]

Added 156K net new subscribers during Q3 2008. Partial blame given to losing the Bell South contract back in April, which of course will come back in February.

[Doug Brott]

Added 156K net new subscribers during Q3 2008. Partial blame given to losing the Bell South contract back in April, which of course will come back in February.

The nine-month number of 560k is close to last year's nine-month number (603k) ..
Total subscribers is now 17.3 million.

[Doug Brott]

Conference Call is in progress now: http://investor.directv.com/released...leaseID=342116

[bonscott87]

Sorry I'm late to blog. Actually had to work today, imagine that.

Sounds like the main statements must be over as there is a question about AT&T losses.

[bonscott87]

Look to pick up those Bell South subs back up after the AT&T agreement starts up next year.

[Doug Brott]

First 15 minutes were rehash of earnings release.

[bonscott87]

Question about increased HD competition.

Chase: DirecTV is happy with where they are at with their position of their leadership. But they need to keep it "fresh" with new things such as the NFL Sunday Ticket mix channel in HD now.

[bonscott87]

Whole lot of financial, stock and Latin America stuff. Yawwwwwn.

[hdtvfan0001]

Wake me up when we get to the point of learning about new products, services, features.... :D

[dcowboy7]

The subscriber additions are predicted to be 20% lower than the previous year's third quarter by Craig Moffet of Sanford C. Bernstein. http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6611431.html

Craig has been wrong before.

he was wrong....its 35% lower.

[Doug Brott]

SlingBox mentioned .. mobility will emerge over the next few years.

[bonscott87]

Q: What % of customers take advanced services?
A: Close to 50% by end of the year.

Q: Do you plan a Slingbox type solution?
A: Mobility is certainly something to look at in the future. Very niche market right now.

[bonscott87]

Wake me up when we get to the point of learning about new products, services, features.... :D

Yea, good luck. They typically don't talk much on this stuff in the financial calls. :(

[hdtvfan0001]

Yea, good luck. They typically don't talk much on this stuff in the financial calls. :(

true - usually only once a year...but once in a while..they drop a little hint or info of surprise for what's coming...

[Stuart Sweet]

Q: What % of customers take advanced services?
A: Close to 50% by end of the year.

That would be huge -- Do I understand that right, 9 million HD or DVR subs?

Q: Do you plan a Slingbox type solution?
A: Mobility is certainly something to look at in the future. Very niche market right now.

A very diplomatic answer considering that the owner of the dominant product in that market is your primary competitor.

[bonscott87]

Question on whole home solution, been on the plans for a couple years, any details?

Right now focus is more on an engineering and customer service focus. Right now it's PC to DVR and back, then in 2009 going from DVR to DVR and then perhaps in 2010 they would be looking at the whole home solution Step by step process.

Pushing single wire technology in 4th quarter.

Not marketing the PC connectivity but they have these "beta" testers that have been using it for a while and they like it. (Nice nod to the CE community).

[Doug Brott]

Whole home solution ..

Engineering and Customer focus
Watch DVR from PC
HD Box to access HD-DVR soon
New box '09 - '10 timeframe

Single-Wire technology for connectivity
10,000+ DIRECTV2PC beta users (?)

Whole-Home will be centerpiece beyond '09

[Doug Brott]

Not marketing the PC connectivity but they have these "beta" testers that have been using it for a while and they like it. (Nice nod to the CE community).

I sensed this as well :)

[bonscott87]

That would be huge -- Do I understand that right, 9 million HD or DVR subs?



That is correct and they mentioned similar numbers last time. That's when people say that the DirecTV DVR isn't that big I must look at these numbers and you have to think at least 7-8 million of that 9 million have a DVR and the HD DVR has to be a big chunk of that. I'd say at least double if not triple the number of people have a DirecTV DVR then have/had a DirecTivo.

[bonscott87]

And that's all she wrote.

Once again, no mention of Tivo that I heard.

[spidey]

wonder if whole home solution will require an IP network or if they will utilize MoCa in some way.

[Doug Brott]

And that's all she wrote.

Once again, no mention of Tivo that I heard.

I did not hear any question from the investors nor did I hear a mention of TiVo in the general comments or as part of the Q&A.

[dcowboy7]

I did not hear any question from the investors nor did I hear a mention of TiVo in the general comments or as part of the Q&A.

maybe they all fell asleep.

[RAD]

wonder if whole home solution will require an IP network or if they will utilize MoCa in some way.


IIRC that's been asked in the past and none of the STB's or switches can utilize MoCa at this time so I'd guess ethernet since the boxes do have that support now.

[beejpowers]

Right now it's PC to DVR and back, then in 2009 going from DVR to DVR ...


So MRV is on the way next year? Fan-flippin-tastic!:D :up: :up: :up:
This is the first I have heard this (admittedly, I have not been reading the forums as diligently as before but, it's nice to hear it from the company.)

[hdtvfan0001]

maybe they all fell asleep.
I know I almost did... :D

This was a barebones session...subscriber results...some financials...etc.

Not much else new at all. That tends to come in the 1Q session anyway.

[Ken S]

Wow, churn was up 10%...that can't make folks happy.

ARPU up 6%...as growth slows we can expect them to look more and more at our wallets to keep revenues increasing.

Second presentation now Carey has talked about Engineering and not in conjunction with new products. I'd also guess he's not talking about the guy that drives the train he takes to work. This is a good thing hopefully some heat from above will stop some of the sloppiness below. Maybe they get some additional resources to make better more stable products.

2009 for MRV...same time frame as the new Tivo box?

[Lee L]

Wow, I figured DVR-DVR MRV was coming sooner than that. Hopefully, when they say 2009, they don't releast at the end of 2009.

[408SJC]

Even if it was at end of '09 they will need testers

[Herdfan]

then in 2009 going from DVR to DVR


Ahhhh..........!!!!!

2009? That could be over a year from now for MRV.:mad:

[Thaedron]

Ahhhh..........!!!!!

2009? That could be over a year from now for MRV.:mad:

I certainly hope it's very early 2009.

[harsh]

A very diplomatic answer considering that the owner of the dominant product in that market is your primary competitor.Actually, mobility is DIRECTV2Go. I'd say he ignored the question altogether.

edit: I thought some more about what constitutes mobility and I can see where it now also covers receiving stuff on your wireless hand-held. Getting up a good head of steam with a "secure" media player for phones would be a daunting task indeed. There's also the issue of private home viewing that they well need to definitively address as part of such a setup.

[harsh]

wonder if whole home solution will require an IP network or if they will utilize MoCa in some way.It seems likely that they will continue to pursue IP-based solutions. On the other hand, perhaps MoCA is the motivation for recommending against diplexing?

[hdtvfan0001]

Actually, mobility is DIRECTV2Go. I'd say he ignored the question altogether.
Maybe by choice.

[bonscott87]

Ahhhh..........!!!!!

2009? That could be over a year from now for MRV.:mad:

I take it to mean this.

2007 was the year of Media Center.

2008 was the year of the PC to DVR and back connectivity. We've been testing this in the CE program for what, nearly a year now? At least for a good portion of 2008 and now it's officially launched.

So 2009 is the year of DVR to DVR, or MRV as we call it. I'd think CE testing for that would begin pretty soon, as in a couple months or so.

Then it all leads up to 2010 for a whole home solution.

This has all been step by step, building on the other it seems. It's taken a while but DirecTV seems to be taking the long view on this anyway. Most of this stuff still to this day is all a niche market, just the geeks want it. So they let the CE program bang on it for a couple years piece by piece until they have a solid foundation built up and then they have a full product. Pretty interesting.

But yes, the mention of MRV and whole home DVR was the biggest "news" for us and it came from a question from the audience so it was a good question indeed.

[Ken S]

It should be noted he talked about DVR to DVR and not DVR to receiver.

[Sixto]

Here you go ... word for word ...http://seekingalpha.com/article/104587-directv-group-inc-q3-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

[Doug Brott]

Here you go ... word for word ...http://seekingalpha.com/article/104587-directv-group-inc-q3-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1

Thanks Sixto ..

[RAD]

Here's the section where Chase mentions about MRV:

"And you are going to move from that being able to up the time, boxes in the home, so if you got an HD box in one room and HD DVR in the other room, the HD box can access the HD DVR and then probably more towards the end of '09, '10 move to really a next generation box. It is one box feeding multiple sets, so it’s a process of moving through time. "

[jacmyoung]

Here's the section where Chase mentions about MRV:

"And you are going to move from that being able to up the time, boxes in the home, so if you got an HD box in one room and HD DVR in the other room, the HD box can access the HD DVR and then probably more towards the end of '09, '10 move to really a next generation box. It is one box feeding multiple sets, so it’s a process of moving through time. "

I also did not read anything about DVR to DVR, rather HDDVR to HD box. I have four HDDVRs, but wonder if I should go out and get myself an HD box for a potential MRV CE.

[inkahauts]

He can only talk about MRV coming next year... There is no way its going to be implemented this year.. Its not even in testing yet... And based on DOD and Directv2pc, it takes around 6 months from when we first see testing till it is officially launched...


I wouldn't be surprised if the whole house solution uses Moca... and works over cable and internet... Cable lines for main unit and clients, and internet to any other regular reciever, like the HR20's, etc...

[dcowboy7]

2007 was the year of Media Center.

2008 was the year of the PC to DVR and back connectivity.

2009 is the year of DVR to DVR, or MRV as we call it.

2010 for a whole home solution.


2011 - the year "channels i get" issue resolved. :D

[russdog]

So 2009 is the year of DVR to DVR, or MRV as we call it. I'd think CE testing for that would begin pretty soon, as in a couple months or so.
It should be noted he talked about DVR to DVR and not DVR to receiver.
Here's the section where Chase mentions about MRV:

"And you are going to move from that being able to up the time, boxes in the home, so if you got an HD box in one room and HD DVR in the other room, the HD box can access the HD DVR and then probably more towards the end of '09, '10 move to really a next generation box. It is one box feeding multiple sets, so it’s a process of moving through time. "
I also did not read anything about DVR to DVR, rather HDDVR to HD box. I have four HDDVRs, but wonder if I should go out and get myself an HD box for a potential MRV CE.
In this thread, we have multiple posters claiming that DVR-to-DVR was explicitly mentioned.
Yet the transcript apparently shows no mention of that whatsoever. Instead, it talks about HD-receiver-to-DVR.

Can we get this straight before we invent a mythology of promises that were not made?
If they did say DVR-to-DVR, can someone please help me find it?
If they didn't, can we please not fabricate a false story about it?
So, bottom line: Did they or didn't they?

[rahlquist]

In this thread, we have multiple posters claiming that DVR-to-DVR was explicitly mentioned.
Yet the transcript apparently shows no mention of that whatsoever. Instead, it talks about HD-receiver-to-DVR.

Can we get this straight before we invent a mythology of promises that were not made?
If they did say DVR-to-DVR, can someone please help me find it?
If they didn't, can we please not fabricate a false story about it?
So, bottom line: Did they or didn't they?

I tend to agree with you. From the transcript.

And you are going to move from that being able to up the time, boxes in the home, so if you got an HD box in one room and HD DVR in the other room, the HD box can access the HD DVR and then probably more towards the end of '09, '10 move to really a next generation box.That doesnt says JUST DVR-DVR.

[Lee L]

Surely, if you can send from a DVR to a standard Receiver, you can also send to another DVR.

[Ken S]

In this thread, we have multiple posters claiming that DVR-to-DVR was explicitly mentioned.
Yet the transcript apparently shows no mention of that whatsoever. Instead, it talks about HD-receiver-to-DVR.

Can we get this straight before we invent a mythology of promises that were not made?
If they did say DVR-to-DVR, can someone please help me find it?
If they didn't, can we please not fabricate a false story about it?
So, bottom line: Did they or didn't they?

I'll listen to the audio again to confirm...wouldn't be my first mistake this lifetime...or even this week (it's pretty early in the day here).

...ken

[RAD]

Surely, if you can send from a DVR to a standard Receiver, you can also send to another DVR.

True, but only if they write the code for it and distribute. The big question would be will they, I hope they do.

[russdog]

That doesnt says JUST DVR-DVR.
It doesn't say DVR-DVR at all.

Surely, if you can send from a DVR to a standard Receiver, you can also send to another DVR.
Surely, if one eSATA drive will work with an HR21, they all will. Uh-huh.

It appears to me that we're fabricating DVR-DVR stories about this....

[jacmyoung]

Surely, if you can send from a DVR to a standard Receiver, you can also send to another DVR.

Of course in theory, but what I found interesting is an HD DVR to HD box scenario is much closer to the current HD DVR to PC format, as supposed to our assumption of the HD DVR to HD DVR MRV.

All I am saying is until reading what he said, few ever thought about HD DVR to HD box MRV because one thing people like about MRV is a better use of all the storage spaces. But if the HD DVR to HD box may be a more obvious first step in MRV, that is better than nothing. I just will hate to have to add a receiver for testing.

[Lee L]

That may be true about no DVR-DVR MRV. If so, I think everyone will be dissapointed and DirecTV will have vastly missed the target market for this as it seems silly to buy an inferior reciever to see what is on a machine in the other room. Plus, every other MRV solution I am aware of is between two DVRs so it seems logical that DireCTV would do the same.

In fact, I wonder if many people with standard HD recievers even know what MRV is or if it has occured to them that it might be cool. On the other hand, a large number of DVR owners want the feature.

[Ken S]

I listened again...he speaks of HD to HD DVR. That's far better. It would also mean DVR to DVR would work as they are also a receiver. It also means we're not looking at a download and play system, but more of a streaming solution.

I assume the whole home setup would also include the ability to use DVR like functions on live TV (as well as recorded content) from a client box.

[RAD]

That may be true about no DVR-DVR MRV. If so, I think everyone will be dissapointed and DirecTV will have vastly missed the target market for this as it seems silly to buy an inferior reciever to see what is on a machine in the other room. Plus, every other MRV solution I am aware of is between two DVRs so it seems logical that DireCTV would do the same.

In fact, I wonder if many people with standard HD recievers even know what MRV is or if it has occured to them that it might be cool. On the other hand, a large number of DVR owners want the feature.

Their target market could be the AT&T Uverse MRV solution which doesn't have a DVR on every TV, only one that feeds them all. Or they could be going after the E* market, those folks that use the TV2 feature to feed a NTSC signal to a remote TV but they've now upgrade that set to HD and want a HD picture without having to spend a couple hundred $'s on a 2nd DVR.

But as someone that has four HD DVR's I sure hope they don't forget about us and get a client installed on those boxes also.

[jacmyoung]

I know it is just what Chase said, not be taken as an official road map but since we are speculating anyway, by reading the below:

“…so if you got an HD box in one room and HD DVR in the other room, the HD box can access the HD DVR and then probably more towards the end of '09, '10 move to really a next generation box. It is one box feeding multiple sets, so it’s a process of moving through time.”

I tried to break down the above comment in three parts, the first is the initial MRV plan in 09’, an HD box capable of viewing recorded programs on an HDDVR somewhere else in the house. This is the most obvious next step since we already have DirecTV2PC available, which is in a similar format.

Then the second step which is very vague: “…and then probably more towards the end of 09’…” What “more” are they planning? DVR to DVR? Or maybe just to enhance the above DVR to receiver functions, for example allow the receiver to remotely schedule recordings on the DVR?

The third step is what got me thinking the DVR to DVR scheme may not occur at all. Here the next generation box will still be a server/client structure, not a peer to peer (as DVR to DVR) structure. Basically moving from the single HDDVR/single HD box MRV to a single HDDVR/multiple HD client terminals MRV plan. Again a natural evolution of a consistent MRV scheme, no peer to peer DVRs in the picture.

[ATARI]

I know it is just what Chase said, not be taken as an official road map but since we are speculating anyway, by reading the below:

“…so if you got an HD box in one room and HD DVR in the other room, the HD box can access the HD DVR and then probably more towards the end of '09, '10 move to really a next generation box. It is one box feeding multiple sets, so it’s a process of moving through time.”

I tried to break down the above comment in three parts, the first is the initial MRV plan in 09’, an HD box capable of viewing recorded programs on an HDDVR somewhere else in the house. This is the most obvious next step since we already have DirecTV2PC available, which is in a similar format.

Then the second step which is very vague: “…and then probably more towards the end of 09’…” What “more” are they planning? DVR to DVR? Or maybe just to enhance the above DVR to receiver functions, for example allow the receiver to remotely schedule recordings on the DVR?

The third step is what got me thinking the DVR to DVR scheme may not occur at all. Here the next generation box will still be a server/client structure, not a peer to peer (as DVR to DVR) structure. Basically moving from the single HDDVR/single HD box MRV to a single HDDVR/multiple HD client terminals MRV plan. Again a natural evolution of a consistent MRV scheme, no peer to peer DVRs in the picture.

My take on the end of '09 to 10 comment was simply the time frame that the next generation box would come out.

Hmmm...when is that TiVo unit comming out again? :)

[russdog]

I listened again...he speaks of HD to HD DVR. That's far better. It would also mean DVR to DVR would work as they are also a receiver.
You are inserting a large and arbitrary assumption here.
In fact, we simply don't know.
There is nothing to indicate that what you said is true.

Now, you might *think* it make sense. But so what?
It "makes sense" that if one brand of eSATA drives works, so would another, but that's not how it is.
Why anybody would make assumptions like this about D* products is beyond me.
You're doing Wishful Thinking. It might turn out to be true, but there's zero reason to assume that.

[jacmyoung]

My take on the end of '09 to 10 comment was simply the time frame that the next generation box would come out.

Hmmm...when is that TiVo unit comming out again? :)

I know many TiVo fans want to stare at it very hard trying to see the new TiVo box in the picture somewhere between the lines, unfortunately we have not heard D* mentioning it at all lately.

His comment clearly said the new generation of box will be in 2010, not referring to the new TiVo HD DVR.

[Lee L]

Considering how long it took them with the Comcast thing, I can see the DirecTV TiVo thing taking a while also.

[hdtvfan0001]

Considering how long it took them with the Comcast thing, I can see the DirecTV TiVo thing taking a while also.
Thanks for reminding me about that..good point...Tivo was a year behind their delivery date for Comcast...

[ATARI]

I know many TiVo fans want to stare at it very hard trying to see the new TiVo box in the picture somewhere between the lines, unfortunately we have not heard D* mentioning it at all lately.

His comment clearly said the new generation of box will be in 2010, not referring to the new TiVo HD DVR.

I know, I know.

But a guy can dream, right?

[Sixto]

Thanks for reminding me about that..good point...Tivo was a year behind their delivery date for Comcast...2009 TiVo DirecTV Box = TiVo HR10-250 experience plus TiVo HD XL experience plus some DirecTV SWM/MPEG4 help (not that hard) plus DirecTV interactive features (most likely). Not that hard, especially if the base box is TiVo agreed hardware.

2008 TiVo Comcast Box = All new experience on Comcast equipment, with zero prior knowledge. Hard.

[hdtvfan0001]

2009 TiVo DirecTV Box = TiVo HR10-250 experience plus TiVo HD XL experience plus some DirecTV SWM/MPEG4 help (not that hard) plus DirecTV interactive features (most likely). Not that hard, especially if the base box is TiVo agreed hardware.

2008 TiVo Comcast Box = All new experience on Comcast equipment, with zero prior knowledge. Hard.
One would think so.....but someone told me a long time ago that Tivo was Madagascaran for "late". :D

[Ken S]

You are inserting a large and arbitrary assumption here.
In fact, we simply don't know.
There is nothing to indicate that what you said is true.

Now, you might *think* it make sense. But so what?
It "makes sense" that if one brand of eSATA drives works, so would another, but that's not how it is.
Why anybody would make assumptions like this about D* products is beyond me.
You're doing Wishful Thinking. It might turn out to be true, but there's zero reason to assume that.

There is a lot to indicate what I said will be true.

1. It is the most cost efficient thing for DirecTV to do.
2. The HR2x series is a DirecTV HD receiver.

As for comparing a 3rd party drive controller to this situation...go for it. That's a bit of a stretch.

Hey, I could be wrong...they could be designing an MRV system that only works with Dish HD receivers.

I'd be much more likely to not believe the time frames they've given than how it will work.

[bonscott87]

You are inserting a large and arbitrary assumption here.
In fact, we simply don't know.
There is nothing to indicate that what you said is true.

Now, you might *think* it make sense. But so what?
It "makes sense" that if one brand of eSATA drives works, so would another, but that's not how it is.
Why anybody would make assumptions like this about D* products is beyond me.
You're doing Wishful Thinking. It might turn out to be true, but there's zero reason to assume that.

I'm the one that said DVR to DVR as I wrote it live and it appeared to be what he said. It was off a bit from the exact wording but what do you want for live blogging, not being able to rewind and doing real work at the same time. ;)

Second, of course MRV will include DVR to DVR. Both HR2x DVR units and the H21/23 all have the same software on it. So if the H21 can stream programs off an HR21, then of course another HR21 can stream from another HR21. It makes no sense at all to not do that. Heck, if a PS3 can see the HR2x playlist I'd think another HD DVR can. ;)

Your eSata drive argument holds no water since 1) eSata drives are not created equal, some have features built in to them in terms of power savings or specifically for PC and Mac that make them not work as a DVR drive and 2) eSata drives on the HR2x receivers are unsupported.

[jacmyoung]

Believe me I want DVR to DVR MRV too, but the fact is what Chase described of the D* planned MRV approach did not include DVR to DVR. It was about one HDDVR to support one HD box as a client in 2009, and then a new HDDVR to support multiple HD clients in 2010.

We can of course try to believe he simply left out the DVR to DVR part. Hopefully we can have some confirmation soon.

[Ken S]

Believe me I want DVR to DVR MRV too, but the fact is what Chase described of the D* planned MRV approach did not include DVR to DVR. It was about one HDDVR to support one HD box as a client in 2009, and then a new HDDVR to support multiple HD clients in 2010.

We can of course try to believe he simply left out the DVR to DVR part. Hopefully we can have some confirmation soon.

He didn't leave DVR out...the DVR in question IS an HD box.

[bonscott87]

Believe me I want DVR to DVR MRV too, but the fact is what Chase described of the D* planned MRV approach did not include DVR to DVR. It was about one HDDVR to support one HD box as a client in 2009, and then a new HDDVR to support multiple HD clients in 2010.

We can of course try to believe he simply left out the DVR to DVR part. Hopefully we can have some confirmation soon.

You guys do realize that Chase is not a technical guy and he answered this question "off the cuff" without any preparation. I can't believe people want to nit pick what was said live with no real press release by someone who pretty much knows the big picture and not the gritty details.

One only needs to be active in the CE program to see where things are going. I'll just leave it at that.

[russdog]

You guys do realize that Chase is not a technical guy and he answered this question "off the cuff" without any preparation. I can't believe people want to nit pick what was said live with no real press release by someone who pretty much knows the big picture and not the gritty details.

One only needs to be active in the CE program to see where things are going. I'll just leave it at that.
I don't think anyone is doubting the direction.
The only issue was the claim that D* has somehow announced DVR-DVR in 2009.
They haven't.

ps: I would expect that any capable exec would not speak in a meeting like that without being prepared and without choosing his words carefully. However, I certainly could be wrong.

[Ken S]

I don't think anyone is doubting the direction.
The only issue was the claim that D* has somehow announced DVR-DVR in 2009.
They haven't.

ps: I would expect that any capable exec would not speak in a meeting like that without being prepared and without choosing his words carefully. However, I certainly could be wrong.

russdog,

I agree with you on the time-frame...DirecTV hasn't been stellar at releasing working technology.

[bonscott87]

ps: I would expect that any capable exec would not speak in a meeting like that without being prepared and without choosing his words carefully. However, I certainly could be wrong.

I agree with you to some extent however I deal with these type of guys on a daily basis in my job and they have no clue what's really going on down in the trenches. Heck, my boss barely knows what's going on in his own department let alone the CEO about 8 rungs up the later. :)

And Chase isn't exactly the best speaker in the world. Ummmm...Ummmmm...Ummmm... ;)

Anyway, doesn't matter. We know their direction, MRV is certainly coming, time will tell where it goes, and unless they do something that makes no sense it should eventually be DVR to DVR.

[Ken S]

So, any thoughts on the financial? The increased churn coupled with increasing subscriber acquisition costs isn't healthy. Churn now tracks at costing over $2 billion a year (cost to stay even).

The increase in ARPU of 6% is to be expected...but are they going to start to run into a wall on increases as the other providers catch-up on HD channels and it becomes a commodity?

FIOS and UVerse continue to expand their markets

Internet-based TV content is growing dramatically. You Tube/Google just announced Hulu type service, NetFlix streaming is available on everything from yoru computer to a toaster nowadays.

How long can you charge a $10/month HD access fee? (Probably a long time it took the FCC to finally get rid of the Touch Tone surcharge).

[bonscott87]

So, any thoughts on the financial? The increased churn coupled with increasing subscriber acquisition costs isn't healthy. Churn now tracks at costing over $2 billion a year (cost to stay even).

The increase in ARPU of 6% is to be expected...but are they going to start to run into a wall on increases as the other providers catch-up on HD channels and it becomes a commodity?

FIOS and UVerse continue to expand their markets

Internet-based TV content is growing dramatically. You Tube/Google just announced Hulu type service, NetFlix streaming is available on everything from yoru computer to a toaster nowadays.

How long can you charge a $10/month HD access fee? (Probably a long time it took the FCC to finally get rid of the Touch Tone surcharge).

I think the increased churn (didn't go up too much) is mainly do to what they said, losing tens of thousands of Bell South customers. They'll see a nice bump up in sub number from the new AT&T agreement next year.

Also increased chrun is all across the industry because of the economy. I know 3 people personally that have dropped pay TV all together (one with DirecTV, 2 with cable) to go OTA only to save money. When you're looking at a choice between eating and pay TV, eating usually wins out. ;) Obviously I'd expect this to continue well into next year. If they think they can weather the economy storm then I'd expect them to just grin and bear it. If not then you may see more promotion of the family pack or the formation of a cheap package in between Family and Choice similar to Dish.

In the end, so far DirecTV is faring far betting in this economy then is Dish and cable, mainly due to their concentration on "high end" customers". I guess I'd be considered high end in that I get Sunday Ticket, but I did chop out all the movie channels to save money. But we're both still working so we can keep the base package. But if either of us get laid off, then it's OTA only for us as well.

[Ken S]

I think the increased churn (didn't go up too much) is mainly do to what they said, losing tens of thousands of Bell South customers. They'll see a nice bump up in sub number from the new AT&T agreement next year.

Also increased chrun is all across the industry because of the economy. I know 3 people personally that have dropped pay TV all together (one with DirecTV, 2 with cable) to go OTA only to save money. When you're looking at a choice between eating and pay TV, eating usually wins out. ;) Obviously I'd expect this to continue well into next year. If they think they can weather the economy storm then I'd expect them to just grin and bear it. If not then you may see more promotion of the family pack or the formation of a cheap package in between Family and Choice similar to Dish.

In the end, so far DirecTV is faring far betting in this economy then is Dish and cable, mainly due to their concentration on "high end" customers". I guess I'd be considered high end in that I get Sunday Ticket, but I did chop out all the movie channels to save money. But we're both still working so we can keep the base package. But if either of us get laid off, then it's OTA only for us as well.

Losing AT&T didn't cause increased churn...it dropped subscriber acquisitions. When they lost the BellSouth deal it wasn't like those customer's had their accounts closed.

I agree to some extent on the voluntary churn, but the other factor is there is more and more content available from other sources many less expensive if not free (with an internet connection). That's going to be a challenge for the guys that consider themselves the premium brand.

[bonscott87]

Losing AT&T didn't cause increased churn...it dropped subscriber acquisitions. When they lost the BellSouth deal it wasn't like those customer's had their accounts closed.

Actually most of those subs were indeed shut off. BellSouth forced converted them to Dish. So yes, they are lost subs and it counts as churn.

I agree to some extent on the voluntary churn, but the other factor is there is more and more content available from other sources many less expensive if not free (with an internet connection). That's going to be a challenge for the guys that consider themselves the premium brand.

While I agree that IP TV will be a challenge, it's not even a blip on the radar yet. So few people do this to even make a difference. 5 years from now? Maybe. But the vast majority of people still watch TV. Heck, I can watch tons of stuff via Hulu and whatnot but I don't because I want to watch full quality HD on my big expensive HD set. IPTV does nothing for me, and I'm one of the bigger "geeks" going in terms of technology. And the stats back that up. Again, maybe in a few years, but today? Not a player.

[Ken S]

Actually most of those subs were indeed shut off. BellSouth forced converted them to Dish. So yes, they are lost subs and it counts as churn.



While I agree that IP TV will be a challenge, it's not even a blip on the radar yet. So few people do this to even make a difference. 5 years from now? Maybe. But the vast majority of people still watch TV. Heck, I can watch tons of stuff via Hulu and whatnot but I don't because I want to watch full quality HD on my big expensive HD set. IPTV does nothing for me, and I'm one of the bigger "geeks" going in terms of technology. And the stats back that up. Again, maybe in a few years, but today? Not a player.

BellSouth/AT&T didn't force subs to switch to Dish. At least not here in SE Florida. If you read their release you'll see that Carey only attributes the smaller amount of new subs to losing the AT&T deal.

Those big expensive TVs are starting to come with built-in web browsers. Will the change happen in a year...no, of course not...but the internet has already had a drastic effect on TV viewing. Hulu is streaming some HD content now and at least one of the networks is also offering HD off the net. I think this is a huge risk factor for DirecTV in the long term. I would put it in the class of what broadband did to AOL's business.

[say-what]

Actually most of those subs were indeed shut off. BellSouth forced converted them to Dish. So yes, they are lost subs and it counts as churn.BellSouth/AT&T didn't force subs to switch to Dish. At least not here in SE Florida. If you read their release you'll see that Carey only attributes the smaller amount of new subs to losing the AT&T deal. Agree, I subscribed through BellSouth and receive a discount on my DirecTV bill each month that continues now. I was never once told or solicited to switch to Dish - like I would anyway. They let you continue under your existing bundle.

[bonscott87]

Agree, I subscribed through BellSouth and receive a discount on my DirecTV bill each month that continues now. I was never once told or solicited to switch to Dish - like I would anyway. They let you continue under your existing bundle.

How about I modify my statement: In many cases you were highly encouraged to switch to Dish. And in most MDU's it was forced. I know a couple people that live in such apartment complexes and they were all forced to switch to Dish.

YMMV of course.

Anyway...

[inkahauts]

And in most MDU's it was forced. I know a couple people that live in such apartment complexes and they were all forced to switch to Dish.

YMMV of course.

Anyway...

Ah, that would be completely illegal...

[Ken S]

How about I modify my statement: In many cases you were highly encouraged to switch to Dish. And in most MDU's it was forced. I know a couple people that live in such apartment complexes and they were all forced to switch to Dish.

YMMV of course.

Anyway...

Highly encouraged meaning they got advertising in the mail...or was there waterboarding involved? C'mon...let's be real the AT&T change had nothing to do with churn. DirecTV isn't claiming it did...it seems only you are.

Yes, it probably cause lower subscription numbers, but my guess is the number of people that canceled DirecTV because the AT&T deal switched is ridiculously small. Dish's subscription numbers would also certainly bear that out. People that were getting a discount through BellSouth for DirecTV are still getting that discount and my guess is DirecTV is still paying AT&T on those existing customers.

[harsh]

Ah, that would be completely illegal...As the operator of the MDU can't send both providers signals through the same plant, they have to make a choice. I'm guessing that there is language in the contract that says that the choice is the operators, not the residents.

The problem for many MDU operators is the significant amount of new equipment demanded by the DIRECTV Ka/Ku setup. I would bet that their motivation to not change to MFH2 plant would be strong; especially with a few more MFH3 installations coming on line. In either case, there's lots of hardware to buy and install and likely more than a little wire plant to replace.

[bonscott87]

Ah, that would be completely illegal...

How is that illegal? Apartment complexes change their TV provider all the time. In an apartment I used to live in long ago back in college they had their own internal cable system (just 30 channels). You couldn't get the local cable company.

Then they went to DirecTV thru the whole place. Few years later they switched everyone to the local cable company. Sure, they couldn't stop you from getting DirecTV on your own (assuming line of sight and all that) but if you wanted TV thru that cable in the wall then you were switched from DirecTV to cable no matter if you wanted to switch or not. It's just the way it works in MDU where the complex wires you up for something and you get whatever it is they provide you.

[Lee L]

You guys do realize that Chase is not a technical guy and he answered this question "off the cuff" without any preparation. I can't believe people want to nit pick what was said live with no real press release by someone who pretty much knows the big picture and not the gritty details.

One only needs to be active in the CE program to see where things are going. I'll just leave it at that.


I actually thoguht about this over the weekend and I think you are probably right. He is probably breifed on many things prior to teh call, but to parse his every word like he is Alan Greenspan or something is probably not the best thing we could spend out time on as he might not actualyl know in depth what the plan is to the level we want to know.