Steve Mehs
05-02-03, 05:10 AM
Next week, cable companies begin a week of reporting first quarter reports, with Cox leading the parade of announcements on Monday, followed by cable giant Comcast on Thursday.
Doug Shapiro, cable and satellite TV analyst for Banc of America Securities, said a few operators might show some improvement in their customer counts. "We ... expect that the divergence in basic sub growth evident last year, when AT&T, Cablevision and Charter all suffered sub losses, will reverse somewhat this year," he said in a research note released this week.
Shapiro said Cablevision and Comcast’s newly acquired AT&T Broadband systems could report significant improvement from earlier basic subscriber losses. And Mediacom may show that it has been adversely impacted by several local TV launches by DirecTV at the end of 2002, he said.
In his first quarter preview, Shapiro reiterated his line that the threat satellite TV poses to cable is moderating.
His reasons: DBS sub growth is slowing, and both EchoStar and Hughes - parent of DirecTV - are starting to focus more on profitability than market share. Shapiro said DBS unit economics don’t leave much room for price discounting, and "we believe the market is big enough for both cable and DBS to hit consensus subscriber growth estimates."
In addition, the analyst said that for the long-term DBS will have trouble competing with the cable bundle. As for News Corp.'s proposed takeover of DirecTV and Hughes, Shapiro said he thinks it's "far fetched" that a News Corp.-controlled DirecTV would launch a price war with cable companies over programming.
In addition to Cox and Comcast, EchoStar reports Tuesday, and XM Satellite Radio releases first quarter results Thursday. Cablevision will announce first quarter results May 13.
From SkyReport (http://www.skyreport.com) (Used with Permission)
Doug Shapiro, cable and satellite TV analyst for Banc of America Securities, said a few operators might show some improvement in their customer counts. "We ... expect that the divergence in basic sub growth evident last year, when AT&T, Cablevision and Charter all suffered sub losses, will reverse somewhat this year," he said in a research note released this week.
Shapiro said Cablevision and Comcast’s newly acquired AT&T Broadband systems could report significant improvement from earlier basic subscriber losses. And Mediacom may show that it has been adversely impacted by several local TV launches by DirecTV at the end of 2002, he said.
In his first quarter preview, Shapiro reiterated his line that the threat satellite TV poses to cable is moderating.
His reasons: DBS sub growth is slowing, and both EchoStar and Hughes - parent of DirecTV - are starting to focus more on profitability than market share. Shapiro said DBS unit economics don’t leave much room for price discounting, and "we believe the market is big enough for both cable and DBS to hit consensus subscriber growth estimates."
In addition, the analyst said that for the long-term DBS will have trouble competing with the cable bundle. As for News Corp.'s proposed takeover of DirecTV and Hughes, Shapiro said he thinks it's "far fetched" that a News Corp.-controlled DirecTV would launch a price war with cable companies over programming.
In addition to Cox and Comcast, EchoStar reports Tuesday, and XM Satellite Radio releases first quarter results Thursday. Cablevision will announce first quarter results May 13.
From SkyReport (http://www.skyreport.com) (Used with Permission)