61.5 and super dish & rainbow

[Bob Haller]

With the super dish coming I wonder if the 61.5 slot will still be needed?

I doubt rainbow can put up much of a offering that makes money with so few transponders.

Wonder if charlie will sell 61.5 slot to rainbow when superdish is active?

Subs never wanted 2 dishes on their homes anyway. 61.5 might be worth big bucks to rainbow. the money could help fund the superdish effor.

[Chris Freeland]

If anything E* will eventually purchase Rainbow DBS, they can never have too much bandwidth ;) . Their is not room on the spotbeams for all of the locals currently on 61.5 and I think HD channels will be duplicated on both 61.5 and 148 for at least a year or two to give current HD subs plenty of time to upgrade to the SuperDish once HD goes to 105.

[Bob Haller]

With ewnough spot beam birds at superdish I wonder if Ecould carry ever LIL station nationwide? The smaller DMAs often ave outdated cable that would turn over dead with E as a competitor.

In any case E will either buy or sell all of 61.5

[JohnH]

Super dish ain't all that Super. Just an additional 500mhz of conus bandwidth or about 350 additional SD channels. Not much in the local channel universe.

EchoStar only has 11 frequencies to sell at 61.5. Also, they have a contract with Dominion for the life of EchoStar 3.

The split off of Rainbow DBS may make it easier to purchase. Don't know. There is a launch date and time now for Rainbow 1. July 17th at 23:20 UT.

[Chris Freeland]

Originally posted by JohnH
Super dish ain't all that Super. Just an additional 500mhz of conus bandwidth or about 350 additional SD channels. Not much in the local channel universe.

EchoStar only has 11 frequencies to sell at 61.5. Also, they have a contract with Dominion for the life of EchoStar 3.

The split off of Rainbow DBS may make it easier to purchase. Don't know. There is a launch date and time now for Rainbow 1. July 17th at 23:20 UT.

However by next year it will be 500mhz x 2 once SES America launches its new bird at 105 and no one here really know for sure weather the current 105 bird is at least partially usable or not with the SuperDish. However I agree that this extra band width will fill up fast with additional SD locals, International and HD.

[JohnH]

Originally posted by Chris Freeland
However by next year it will be 500mhz x 2 once SES America launches its new bird at 105 and no one here really know for sure weather the current 105 bird is at least partially usable or not with the SuperDish.

The 500mhz I was referring to was at 105. All of the configurations of the SuperDISH shown have been configured for 105. Charlie Ergen mentioned a satellite would be brought into position at 105 within a couple of months, maybe. It certainly would not be a good move to use G Star 4 when it is inclined .7 Degrees. A bunch of dish repoints would have to be done later when AMC 15 comes on line.

EchoStar 9 when it gets to 121 has been announced to have 100 International channels, apparently as a service which would be separate from DISH Network. It is strange that the announced launch to be in May has come and gone with no new launch time frame being announced. Some think not this year, even.

[digdu689y]

"Charlie Ergen mentioned a satellite would be brought into position at 105 within a couple of months, maybe"

Now that AMC 9 has been successfully launched to 85 W; AMC 2 will be freed up in 30 to 40 days. It has 24 X 36 Mgz Ku transponders @ 60 watts that covers US, Hawaii and southern Canada.

It could be moved to 105 by SES

[JohnH]

Yeah, that is a possibility. The last word about AMC 2 was they had received permission to operate it at 81.9 deg. That info is somewhat dated though. Maybe new authorization is in the works.

[Jacob S]

I think Rainbow and Dish may work together one providing some HD content while the other providing local service and international service. In other words a sharing of the spectrum. I dont know how this would work if they do not use the same type of receiver. Some say they will use MPEG-4 while others say they will use MPEG-2 and Dish providing hardware for their service. Maybe Dish would buy out the company and customers after the service is up for a while in which the company would attract customers that Dish or Direct would not have just as Direct bout out PrimeStar.

[Chris Freeland]

Originally posted by digdu689y
"Charlie Ergen mentioned a satellite would be brought into position at 105 within a couple of months, maybe"

Now that AMC 9 has been successfully launched to 85 W; AMC 2 will be freed up in 30 to 40 days. It has 24 X 36 Mgz Ku transponders @ 60 watts that covers US, Hawaii and southern Canada.

It could be moved to 105 by SES

That would make a lot of since, especialy since SES already has the space at 105 rented to E*, once the new satellite is launched at 105, AMC2 could then be moved to 81.9 or left as a spare. If this is the plan, the HD channels would not need to take up space on 110 for long and would provide space before the end of the year for many of the new locals to be added too.

[Claude Greiner]

There is no way in hell Charlie is going to sell off the 61.5 assets, if anything they are in talks with rainbow to purchase the 11 remaining transponders at 61.5

Right now this situation would simply be cost prohibitive for the fact that they are going to have to upgrade everyone who has a 61.5 Dish to a SuperDish. In addition to that, they might as well get rid of 148 also, since that slot in conjunction with 61.5 is susposed to serve the entire country

[Mike123abc]

Originally posted by Claude Greiner
There is no way in hell Charlie is going to sell off the 61.5 assets, if anything they are in talks with rainbow to purchase the 11 remaining transponders at 61.5

Right now this situation would simply be cost prohibitive for the fact that they are going to have to upgrade everyone who has a 61.5 Dish to a SuperDish. In addition to that, they might as well get rid of 148 also, since that slot in conjunction with 61.5 is susposed to serve the entire country

I could see him giving up 61.5 for enough $$. If R/L DBS were to buy 61.5 for enough cash to put up a spot beam satellite at 121 and pay to replace all the 61.5 dish people with superdish, it could be a good fit. Having a spot beam satellite on 121 could give him enough capacity to cover every market LIL. If three satellites the equivalent of D-4S/7S were to be put at 121 E* could do LIL HDTV to many markets. All it takes is lots of $$. 1-2 billion would probably make Charlie jump off of 61.5.

148 could mirror 110 for HI/AK.

Assuming they want to do HDTV for ABC/CBS/Fox/NBC/UPN/WB/PBS in the top 20 markets. It would take 60-80 spot beams. A couple more uplink centers would be needed. Dish could offer in the 48 a one dish solution where the top 20 markets get HDTV locals and everyone gets LIL from 121 (plus the capacity on 119/110 spots), and HDTV cable channels from 105.

But, since R/L is going to enter the world with a satellite and roughly 500million, I doubt it would be buying 61.5.

[Bob Haller]

I wouldnt be surprised if 61.5 is sold to generate the $$ for enough spot beams for the entire US. 148 could be paired with 157 for alaska hawaii and pacific service with sky angel and LIL in these areas.

I think the key to beating cable is a single dish and 100% LIL coverage. If rainbow can find the bucks this will works. What do spot beam birds cost these days? 250 million for the sat and another 1.5 million for launch? Something in that area.

Given previous govermnment auctions whats 61.5 wrth anyway?

Imagine a commercial we have ALL your locals included in the packages:)

[Mike123abc]

If Dish were to sell off 61.5 they could just move the 61.5 to 121 as soon as E9 gets to 121. They would immediately have 15 more transponders for expansion while they build a new spot beam satellite(they only have 17/32 on 61.5 vs all 32 on 121). A spot beam satellite with the capacity of one of D*'s (40+ spots) could give them most of the US. They could even dust off the old E1 plans from the merger.

It would be ironic to end up building E1 for use at 121. They would reach the goal of the merger on their own and serve all DMAs.

[Jacob S]

I dont see Dish selling off 61.5/148 but I could see them trading that slot for another one that is closer to 101/105/110/119/121 area so that everything could be served on one dish unless they could add additional space to one of the slots 105-121 to more than make up for what was at 61.5.

Also it would take so much time to make those satellites and get them launched so its that much time lost without 61.5. Perhaps they could lease space somewhere close around 101-121 until more satellites are launched to replace what is leased. If they sold 61.5 in exchange for being able to use their HD or other service at that slot then perhaps that would be a good tradeoff them being allowed to really use that slot when they get money for it to put up even more satellites.

[Mike123abc]

Echostar 9 is waiting for launch to go to 121. A launch date has not been set, but should be soon. If they have 121 they could just mirror 61.5 on 121 then switch everyone to 121, then turn off 61.5. They could do by the end of the year if they really wanted to (i.e. got a big $$ from R/L DBS).

If they get another satellite in 105 they could move HDTV off of wings and that would free up more space.


As far as trades go, there is really nothing as valuable as 61.5 to trade for... there is no available DBS frequencies, just ku-fss that is cheap compared to DBS freqencies. Only way I see them giving them up is for $$.

[Jacob S]

61.5 and 148 both could be used for another satellite service in itself but everything would have to be mirrored in which would result in half the space. It would just require twice the bandwidth since everyone cannot see each slot.

[Mike123abc]

Actually they could do East and West coast feeds and have some variety. Plus if they use some transponders on each wing for locals.

[Jacob S]

So in all actuality not all would be mirrored, the locals wouldnt be. As good as some of the compression is getting it probably would not take up too much space anyways for all the basic channels.

[Bob Haller]

Whatever happens its going to change. Maybe I should dust off my crystall ball? Anyone remember that? For a while my old source did great! 007 do you still read these forums??

[Bob Haller]

Maybe a strategic alliance of E and rainbow against D and Rupert?

[Jacob S]

I am thinking the same thing as you Bob but something was mentioned about Dish and Direct possibly working on sharing some of the spectrum in the future. Unexpected and surprising things seem to happen anymore, like this SuperDish and 105/121 slots to be used. Things we never imagine to happen do seem to happen more often than it used to.

[Mike123abc]

I think the key is that DBS companies are working hard to overcome bandwith limitations and compete with both each other and cable. All sorts of new ideas will be coming out.

[Chris Freeland]

Remember guys, with the new technology that has just came out to make it less costly for cable to go 100% digital, in not to many years the cable guys are going to have a boatload of bandwidth to play with. E* is going to need all the bandwidth they can put together to continue to be competitive with cable, I still say if anything E* will buy Rainbow DBS at 61.5. Also with a couple additional up-link centers E* could place another Spotbeam satellite at 110 and re-use those same frequencies up to an additional 38 spots. With 100% Digital cable on the horizon E* and D* both are going to need to have as much bandwidth that they can possibly assemble to stay competitive with cable. E* is off to a good start with the addition of 105 and 121, but they need to keep and possibly expand 61.5 too.

[Jacob S]

I agree. They may need this new 61.5 satellite and its capabilities from Rainbow along with 105/121 and additional compression in the future to get the addtional bandwidth needed.

Perhaps within the next 5-10 years by the time all of cable does use this new technology for additional bandwidth satellite could increase compression by half more if not double in addition to using some similar ideas of NorthPoint for sharing that same spectrum (possibly for locals and other services). Also a sharing of the overall spectrum with Dish and Direct may be needed for additional space. The amount saved on not duplicating the services which would cause launching of more satellites for each service could be used for additional satellites or receiver swapouts for additional compression schemes and to fight piracy.

[Mike123abc]

The coming future will be well yeah they have my locals (on DBS) but are they in HDTV like cable? Customers will not care about any technical arguments that satellite does not have the bandwidth. Either the service has it or it does not. In 5 years most of the country will probably have HDTV locals on cable. Sure, they may not be watched in HDTV by everyone, but as TV sets get old and replaced, churn will eventually convert them all to digital cable ready TVs that can tune in HDTV, and most TVs will offer better than standard definition.

This future is a ways off, but not very far off. Even if it is 10 years away, DBS has to make moves now to deliver it starting now. Bandwidth does not grow on trees, nor can you run to Walmart and do a quick buy on a satellite. The plans to deliver have to be made now. Dish has demonstrated some of this by locking up 2 new orbital locations. While not as prime as the regular DBS slots (i.e. have to be lower power), it does increase bandwidth dramatically.

To be competitive eventually DBS will have to offer HDTV locals and "cable channels". 10-15 years from now I would expect Dish to deliver every channel in HDTV and Locals in HDTV to at least the top 100 markets, or be relegated to Kmart status of multichannel providers.

[Jacob S]

In 5 years most of the population will still not have the new television sets as everyone is not going to go out and buy a new tv set once digital becomes mandatory therefore they would not be using HDTV anyways. This will guy satellite time to rework its structure for HDTV and the new digital standard. A lot of people will probably buy convertors to switch the digital back to analog unless the price of a new digital tv is not much more than the convertor.

Its like starting all over again on offering all locals in HDTV or the new digital standard along with the other channels. Channel offerings may have to go down to only include the major ones that the majority watch but there may also be a drop in price for customers as a result and that would help keep the competitive in that aspect, when it comes to price. This may not be how things turn out though. The unexpected or something we have never thought of will happen.

[Mike Richardson]

DBS generally has more bandwidth than Cable when you think about it. DBS is carrying hundreds of local channels, and a bunch of international channels too, while cable only has to worry about standard channels, and just a few locals. The fact that they could clear out 5 entire transponders on their 110 satellite shows that they've still got free space too.

I'd be more worried about cable converting to all-digital then using the new space for more two-way services. But if you ask me I don't think analog cable will go away for years to come. It's still an advantage that cable has, the fact you can split the coax with a $10 splitter and get 6 TVs with cable (although not the best quality in the world, heh).

[Jacob S]

I also agree with this. A lot of people like the fact they can split the signal with a splitter without any additional cost and if there is going to be a cost of like $10 per additional room like I hear there is now if not more then this will cause many to possibly switch to satellite where it is only $5 per additional room (soon maybe nothing extra with some of these dual tuner receivers coming out).

That is a good point made about satellite providing all of these locals to the entire U.S. along with all these other channels where cable provides just to a much much smaller region. If satellite could share the bandwidth like Northpoint wanted to do or some other solution for locals then this would free up a lot of spectrum and give room for other things in the future and they could start the transition to digital/HDTV.

[Bob Haller]

Ahh the issue is this. When did multip[le dishes become acceptable/ this was always the downfall to the side slots. people didnt want 2 dishes on their home it never bothered me, i have 3. but it did bug the heck oiut of my wife..

Whatever solution has to fit what customers will be willing to live with.

I wonder if they could pair the super dish with 148? I know for certain a multi look dish could do core and 148 but not 61.5. They never exploited this possiblity.

Rainbow appears serious about providing a real service, this should be interesting....

[Big Bob]

Originally posted by Mike Richardson
DBS generally has more bandwidth than Cable when you think about it. DBS is carrying hundreds of local channels, and a bunch of international channels too, while cable only has to worry about standard channels, and just a few locals.

But remember, a cable system only provides local channels for one market. DBS has too povide locals for all the locals they carry at the same time

[Chris Freeland]

Originally posted by Mike123abc
The coming future will be well yeah they have my locals (on DBS) but are they in HDTV like cable? Customers will not care about any technical arguments that satellite does not have the bandwidth. Either the service has it or it does not. In 5 years most of the country will probably have HDTV locals on cable. Sure, they may not be watched in HDTV by everyone, but as TV sets get old and replaced, churn will eventually convert them all to digital cable ready TVs that can tune in HDTV, and most TVs will offer better than standard definition.

This future is a ways off, but not very far off. Even if it is 10 years away, DBS has to make moves now to deliver it starting now. Bandwidth does not grow on trees, nor can you run to Walmart and do a quick buy on a satellite. The plans to deliver have to be made now. Dish has demonstrated some of this by locking up 2 new orbital locations. While not as prime as the regular DBS slots (i.e. have to be lower power), it does increase bandwidth dramatically.

To be competitive eventually DBS will have to offer HDTV locals and "cable channels". 10-15 years from now I would expect Dish to deliver every channel in HDTV and Locals in HDTV to at least the top 100 markets, or be relegated to Kmart status of multichannel providers.

I do not disagree, however it has ben reported that technology may be in the works that will allow local commercials to be inserted into National programing via satellite, if this new technology works out, in a year or two E* and D* might be able to provide East, Mountain and Pacific timezone feeds of NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, WB and UPN HD feeds and insert local commercials. Another advantage to satellite too is that local channels where available are optional for those who choose to save a few bucks. With ota dtv those who can receive these channels ota can do so and get a picture as good as what they could receive with satellite or cable, but with satellite they have the option to do so and save a few bucks. Satellite not doing HDTV for every local market might not be too much of a problem if people are educated about dtv and the advantages of getting local HDTV for Free ota.

[Bob Haller]

I still doubt HDTV will be mainstream. First to really appreciate it you need a big screen. But then you need a large room to view it properly. I dont see joe sixpack putting in a media roiom. You really need a set over 32 inches to appreciatre HD.

It will be a option but I dont see it as a runaway demand. By now posters were predicting everyone would be getting a diguital tv adapter. I have yet t see one offered. Heck even the tv manufacturers werent excited about the digital conversion and had to be drug kicking and screaming to add digital receivers to their sets.

[Jacob S]

I also doubt HDTV will be mainstream, at least for a good while. Digital tv still has not taken hold yet and will not for a while, probably for not 5 or so years when it becomes mandatory.

I have been wondering and even said something about inserting commercials in the national feeds of the networks but dont know if this would be possible or not. Perhaps it could be with the spotbeam satellites. This would save lots and lots of space. There would still be the independant channels that people would want in which this could not be done with.

I also agree with needing a bigger tv to appreciate HDTV.

[Bob Haller]

Theres no law or rule by anyone REQUIRING HD. Just a rule by 2006 to get digital tv everywhere. But even then 85% HAVE to have digital to get the analog signals turned off/

It was government wishful thinking to make $$ .

[Chris Freeland]

I agree that HDTV will be a luxury item for several more years for many people, heck it will likely be several years before I can justify HD for my family though I would love to have that Home Theater Room. However their is enough people out their who can and do buy big screen tv's out their, yes even many Joe six packs, and anyone who buys a big screen today would be foolish not to buy at least an HD monitor, having a good selection of National HD channels to feed those HD monitors will be coming a more and more important option for both DBS and cable program providers. I feel having the HD feeds of the local broadcast Network channels will be more important for cable then DBS because it is much easier to combine a ota antenna with a satellite dish then it is with cable tv, and as I said before, with cable you are forced to take those local channels, with DBS you have the option of getting locals Free ota without giving up all those popular cable networks.

[Jacob S]

I most definitely agree on it being foolish for people to not get the HD tv's if they are going to spend that much money on them because it should be for the long rum since it is such a high cost investment. What about tv's that are just digital and not HD? Wouldn't those be cheaper or are those not out yet or do all the digital tv's have HD capability as well? I figured some would not have that capability if they were cheaper.

[Bob Haller]

Yep digital NOT HD will be cheaper. Small HD sets dont really show the quality difference. I think at best HD will be a very slow climb. It took color many years and that was a very big difference.

[Cyclone]

I think it will be the opposite. It will fall in quickly like how the internet caused eveyone to get PCs and get an ISP. It will start out slow and accelerate. All the new stuff this fall will be the catalyst. Hardware will become cheaper and cheaper. The retailers will push it big time to get marketshare and rainbows will stretch from horizon to horizon.

Cyclone

[Chris Freeland]

Almost all big screen projection tv's and many tube TV's 30" and larger on the market now are at least HD ready, and I saw a 30" wide screen Samsong HD monitor yesterday at BB for $749. It will not take long until most people with a 30" tv or larger will want HD programing, I suspect that soon mid-price and high end tv's in the 20"- 30" sizes range will be 480p high res but not HD and low end 20"-30" tv's and probably most tv's less then 20" will be SD digital, however the sales figures I have ben seeing, the larger sets are getting a larger and larger share of the tv market, it will not be long before us Home Theater buffs on a tight budget will be able to afford a 30" HDTV.

[Bob Haller]

Cyclone posters have been waiting for it to fall in quickly for a long time