Could this kill DVD's & Blu-ray?

[Cholly]

This bit of news from HDTV Magazine could effectively kill the DVD market:
http://www.hdtvmagazine.com/columns/2009/11/hdtv_almanac_more_on_dvd_killers.php

[kfcrosby]

I've heard this for awhile now.

This will work WHEN:

Real unlimited high quality broadband service becomes available and or Fiber to the Home (FTTH) becomes a reality for more than just a small percentage of us.

[Shaqdan]

no

[4HiMarks]

I saw articles about a similar device for CDs back in the 90s. It was going to revolutionize record stores. They wouldn't have to keep any inventory at all, just a highspeed CD burner, color laser printer for cover art, and broadband internet access, back in the days when all of these things were very expensive, if available at all.

[tcusta00]

I've heard this for awhile now.

This will work WHEN:

Real unlimited high quality broadband service becomes available and or Fiber to the Home (FTTH) becomes a reality for more than just a small percentage of us.

I think you may have misread the article. The only place that needs high speed internet is the kiosk, not the customer's home.

I saw articles about a similar device for CDs back in the 90s. It was going to revolutionize record stores. They wouldn't have to keep any inventory at all, just a highspeed CD burner, color laser printer for cover art, and broadband internet access, back in the days when all of these things were very expensive, if available at all.

And digital music players have all but killed CDs.

[Tom Robertson]

It will change the DVD rental market, but not kill the DVD to own market.

Cheers,
Tom

[hdtvfan0001]

It will change the DVD rental market, but not kill the DVD to own market.

Cheers,
Tom
Agree.

Not new, and not likely for some time.

[4HiMarks]

And digital music players have all but killed CDs.

Actually, it was efficient compression codecs permitting a CD to be ripped into a file about a tenth as big as the raw audio. Then storage became inexpensive and physically small enough to make a digital music player a feasible device. Once there was a large enough user base, a market niche for selling the digital music directly developed.

But it all goes back to the codec. MP3 killed CDs, not the iPod. And MP4 will probably kill DVDs.

[Stewart Vernon]

But it all goes back to the codec. MP3 killed CDs, not the iPod. And MP4 will probably kill DVDs.

Two entirely different markets.

People wanted more portability for their music and the MP3 allowed for smaller electronic devices that no longer had to be sized to play larger media.

To enjoy video you want bigger screens... and if you have a bigger screen, then there's no distinct advantage to having the smaller media to play it on.

Videos don't need to be as portable as music has needed to be for most people's desired method of enjoyment.

Sure, portable digital video players are popular... but not instead of a big screen TV... rather in addition to it.

I can see the digital copy gaining steam with purchase of media for home use... but not digital copy only.

[tcusta00]

Oh jeez guys, it's semantics. The physical CD was killed by the ability to get that music digitally and put it directly on the device to play it. :rolleyes:

Much like this thread is discussing an article referring to whether the physical DVD/BRD will be killed by the ability to put that directly on the device that plays it.

The hair splitting room is down the hall to the left.

[hdtvfan0001]

Oh jeez guys, it's semantics. The physical CD was killed by the ability to get that music digitally and put it directly on the device to play it. :rolleyes:

Much like this thread is discussing an article referring to whether the physical DVD/BRD will be killed by the ability to put that directly on the device that plays it.

The hair splitting room is down the hall to the left.
...and yet they are still selling millions of CD's....

Long live Blu Ray. :D

[roadrunner1782]

...and yet they are still selling millions of CD's....

Long live Blu Ray. :D

+1 I love my Blu-Ray discs!

[tcusta00]

...and yet they are still selling millions of CD's....

Long live Blu Ray. :D

http://www.dmwmedia.com/news/2008/02/19/report:-digital-music-download-sales-pass-cd-sales-2012

DVD launched in 1995 and yet VHS lived on until just last year...

[Stewart Vernon]

I think Tweeting and text messaging will kill the need for spoken language.

In the future people will no longer speak and will begin being born with additional fingers to enhance the typing process.

[elaclair]

I think Tweeting and text messaging will kill the need for spoken language.

In the future people will no longer speak and will begin being born with additional fingers to enhance the typing process.

Oh Stewart, now that's just silly. You KNOW it will be a Cerebral Wi-Fi implant that will "type" by thought alone. Finger typing? That is just SOOO last century.....:D

[armophob]

Unless I can store the movies at the house, then it is not going to replace my dvds. How many terabyte drives will I need to store all those movies in HD?

[Tom Robertson]

My van has a DVD player (the next might have a BD player, who knows.) Optical portability and delivery ain't dead. And likely won't be until they figure out how to let me play a digital copy anywhere I can today--including loaning out the copy to a friend or family member. Or take a BD to a movie watching party.

Cheers,
Tom

[Stewart Vernon]

What *could* replace Blu ray in the near future could be SD-RAM type delivery.

If the prices on those come down, they could rival the 50GB Blu ray discs and be used to store the same already digital copy of movies... Prices are too high right now, but it would be smaller/easier to store and would still satisfy the physical copy that most of us want.

I could go that way if the future does... but I don't like the idea (don't like it already with music) of buying only a digital copy that I'm then responsible for storing somewhere that doesn't get erased or deleted... I take care of CDs/DVDs/Blu so they practically last forever... but any digital-only copy only lasts as long as your hard drive (or you have to keep backing it up) unless you burn it to a disc yourself... and if you burn it to a disc, you'd be better off buying it that way to begin with.

[hdtvfan0001]

http://www.dmwmedia.com/news/2008/02/19/report:-digital-music-download-sales-pass-cd-sales-2012

DVD launched in 1995 and yet VHS lived on until just last year...
Exactly - CD's will still be the "majority" media for another year or two over downloads...but like every other "tech advance"...it will phase out over time.

Right now...they still do sell alot of CD's - not everyone has bought into the download concept.

The same will likely hold true for DVD and Blu Ray media.

[rudeney]

My van has a DVD player (the next might have a BD player, who knows.) Optical portability and delivery ain't dead. And likely won't be until they figure out how to let me play a digital copy anywhere I can today--including loaning out the copy to a friend or family member. Or take a BD to a movie watching party.

This will happen once the industry is satisfied that each copy purchased is only being used in one place at one time. With physical discs that are "difficult" to copy, this satisfies that need. With a downloadable digital copy, for now, it seems the only way to handle this is by tying it to a single device. The solution to me seems quite simple. Just encode personally identifiable information about the purchaser into the digital copy. This way, if it gets copied, then the first generation owner can be identified and prosecuted. I know some downloadable software does this and it seems to work quite well.

[4HiMarks]

I think you misinterpreted me. IMHO the days of physical media of any type are numbered. You won't have to worry about scratching a disk, or having a multi-terabyte drive, when every movie ever made is available online, streaming directly to any playback device you choose, anywhere you want, instantaneously, for pennies per showing.

It might not happen tomorrow, but I would be very surprised if it had not yet happened 20 years from now.

[rudeney]

streaming directly to any playback device you choose, anywhere you want, instantaneously, for pennies per showing.

I wouldn't count on that, unless you are counting in hundreds. This is really no different than the PPV models we have now, and they are already $5+.

[hdtvfan0001]

It might not happen tomorrow, but I would be very surprised if it had not yet happened 20 years from now.
No worries....I'll either be dead or drinking dinner through a straw by then. :D

[4HiMarks]

I wouldn't count on that, unless you are counting in hundreds. This is really no different than the PPV models we have now, and they are already $5+.

Note that I am talking about 2009 pennies. How much do you think today's $5 movie rentals would be in 1990 dollars?

And I'm also speaking of bandwidth. How much would it have cost 20 years ago to get 15-20mbps download speeds? Heck, even 10 years ago. Twenty years from now, we will all probably have gigabit (or higher) fiber to the home. Look at the speeds they have right now in Korea and Japan.

How much does an average long distance phone call cost today, compared to 20 years ago? Can't be measured, it's so small.

Now consider storage. A 1 TB drive was unbelievably large and expensive just a few years ago. I can remember when hard drives dropped below $1000 per GB. Now you can get 4-8 GB flash drives free as promotional items, or under $20 if you need to buy one. In 20 years, you'll be carrying around petabyte thumb drives. The content providers will have even more capacity. The marginal cost of the space for a single movie will be negligible. Do you worry about the price of the wood taken up by a single book in a bookshelf?

Consider Netflix. I don't subscribe, but if I did, and I really wanted to work it, how many movies could I stream in a month? 30? 60? more? I think they would come out to a lot less than $5 each. Redbox charges $1/movie, and Blockbuster is going bankrupt charging close to $5. HBO and other premium channels cost only pennies per film. PPV is the most expensive option out there, and the price of that is coming down too.

[Stewart Vernon]

In your streaming-only model... I can't watch a movie if the internet is down. Also, if power is out and I have a home generator I could watch a DVD but I couldn't watch something from the internet.

[rudeney]

Note that I am talking about 2009 pennies. How much do you think today's $5 movie rentals would be in 1990 dollars?

Well, according to http://www.dollartimes.com/calculators/inflation.htm, about $2.10. And as I recall, back when I was renting VHS movies, they were $2-$3 each. ;)

[robbiecc]

My 1st computer was a Co-Co II and programs were either typed in, on carteges, or a 'data' cassette. Processor was an 8086 and 8K of ram, and the internet-when it finally started was 300 baud. That was maybe 20-25 yrs ago. I took my coco from 8 to 100k ram for more than a 500 gig HD cost now-not adjusting for inflation and $100 was a lot more back then. I've seen alot of these technologies start and where they are today and I wouldn't even hazzard a guess where it will be in 5-10 yrs. I rem a 7 channel tv market in chicago area and stations going off the air at nite-now we have hundreds of channels and they fill the dead time with info mercials(think the off air was better)
Point is, there is no telling what has yet to be invented , improved or perfected, and cost wise I rem cd writers(computer) were over $1000, now you can get a decient lightscribe for under $40. The only thing i would bet on is it will be smaller, faster and cheaper.

[Luck255]

Is it just me or does it seem like putting a movie on an SD card and taking it home would turn into just obscene piracy? It takes only a few minutes to start downloading practically any new movie at a poor quality. I can't imagine why movie studios would just give you a perfect digital copy of their work and hope the honor system works out so you buy the movie again in 48 hours.