Why did they stop development of the HDPC-20?

[CraigerCSM]

I still don't get why people wouldn't want to use a Windows Media Center PC as their DTV DVR and HD DVR? Maybe it was adding another box and it should have been an internal PCIe Card? I guess with an all in one what happens if one part of it breaks? Or if the PC crashes while watching TV? Or they wouldn't want the TV PIP blocking the web page? I still don't know if I would want everything all in one box or if separate units would be better? I guess I just don't like having alot of cables.

[Doug Brott]

I still don't get why people wouldn't want to use a Windows Media Center PC as their DTV DVR and HD DVR? Maybe it was adding another box and it should have been an internal PCIe Card? I guess with an all in one what happens if one part of it breaks? Or if the PC crashes while watching TV? Or they wouldn't want the TV PIP blocking the web page? I still don't know if I would want everything all in one box or if separate units would be better? I guess I just don't like having alot of cables.

Most people just want to watch TV on their TV. A $200 STB is much cheaper than a $200 adapter + a $1500 PC. I don't think it gets any more basic than that.

[CraigerCSM]

Most people just want to watch TV on their TV. A $200 STB is much cheaper than a $200 adapter + a $1500 PC. I don't think it gets any more basic than that.

I could see cost being an issue. If you ordered a PC with a DTV HD Tuner built in that would probably add another $200 - $300 bucks to a PC and depending what you added to a PC the cost would get up their. I know I would want one to be a gaming PC and that would be like you said $1500. What about just getting a basic PC with the DTV tuner built in? That wouldn't be that much more than a HD DVR? I guess they saw they wouldn't profit off of it because only certain people would by one?

[harsh]

Ah, then perhaps this is one time you should consider the message that I'm pushing here .. The HDPC-20 was a bit of a niche product and had some bad timing .Considering the installed base of legacy switchgear, is DECA really that much less vertical than the HDPC-20?

[CraigerCSM]

Considering the installed base of legacy switchgear, is DECA really that much less vertical than the HDPC-20?

I think that maybe the mistake was going from internal to external if they were going internal first. I wonder why they couldn't get internal to work? Maybe people would have liked that more because the external version just added another box. People like less boxes right? Or do they like more?

[Doug Brott]

Considering the installed base of legacy switchgear, is DECA really that much less vertical than the HDPC-20?

Won't go much into DECA here since it's still CE .. but HDPC-20 is something entirely different than DECA. One is basically a receiver while the other is a networking interface .. I don't even get why it makes sense to compare them the way you are :shrug:

[Doug Brott]

I think that maybe the mistake was going from internal to external if they were going internal first. I wonder why they couldn't get internal to work? Maybe people would have liked that more because the external version just added another box. People like less boxes right? Or do they like more?

Internal/External doesn't matter. The HDPC-20 requires a PC. While perhaps folks here have PCs connected to their TV Mom & Pop simply don't want to even consider that. Maybe down the road 5-10 years, but today? The product is too niche.

If for some reason, you think that it is easy for everyone to have a PC next to their TV, then you're not considering other folks desires for appearance and cost savings. Add a PC into the mix and it adds to the cost. A media server is not a netbook PC (which would be cheap) .. It's going to cost about $1500 for the most basic system and more for those that want the latest greatest. THEN you'd add the cost of the DIRECTV receiver .. whether it's inside or outside it won't be free.

What people like is to have simplicity and adding a PC into the entertainment setup just isn't as easy (and cheap) as plugging in a dedicated STB.

[P Smith]

Internal/External doesn't matter. The HDPC-20 requires a PC. While perhaps folks here have PCs connected to their TV Mom & Pop simply don't want to even consider that. Maybe down the road 5-10 years, but today? The product is too niche.
...
So, if we could retrace the trend:
- internal PCI card: 1997 (dead);
- external USB box: 2008 (dead);
- [external GoE box: 2018] alive ?

[Sort of slow for contemporary electronics ;)]

[Grentz]

It would be neat if they made an enthusiast product, I know there are some thriving communities of HTPC owners out there that really have gone in hoards to any decent product developed for them (Look at the HD Home Run for example). I know I would switch over to some sweet HTPC setups if I could interface DirecTV cleanly and directly as I am sure some other in the HTPC crowd would.

Still a limited market though sadly :(

[gregjones]

The problem with the enthusiast product is simple. The big interest in HTPC is not on Windows. It's not even on Mac. The biggest interest is in Linux (or even XBox) based implementations. The reason is simple.

You can build a very capable HTPC system for under $450 based on Linux. That is an ION-based Acer Revo, a remote control with USB receiver and an external 2TB drive. Throw in the completely free XBMC live on a flash drive and you have a very nice system. That is enough space to accommodate a lot of media in an extremely quiet, very small form factor.

Adding in the DirecTV external solution would double your space requirement and gain you very little more than you could achieve by getting the less expensive HR2x HD DVR.

[Doug Brott]

Adding in the DirecTV external solution would double your space requirement and gain you very little more than you could achieve by getting the less expensive HR2x HD DVR.

Yup, and this doesn't even factor in dealing with things like virus ... The STB just makes more sense all around and there are other options out there for folks that want to go the HTPC route

[gregjones]

Yup, and this doesn't even factor in dealing with things like virus ... The STB just makes more sense all around and there are other options out there for folks that want to go the HTPC route

Bingo. It has too many points of failure and a tiny audience. The user has to:


want DVR functionality without wanting a DVR
Have a PC to use for the purpose
Make sure the PC has the minimum hardware
Accept Windows as the operating system
Make sure the PC has been overbuilt to accommodate for a virus/malware scanner
Pay for a Windows License


It just isn't worth it. As I said before, I have an HTPC. I do not use DVR functionality on it because I prefer my media unedited and without commercials. I have a DVR that works very well (HR20-700). I'm not willing to screw either of them up trying to make one into the other.

PS: And as far as media center interfaces go, the Windows MCE interfaces are some of the worst available.

[Beerstalker]

I don't know, people seem to be interested in the QAM and cable card solutions for WMC, especially now that they are going to be able to buy tuner cards and install them personally rather than buying pre-built machines certified by cablelabs like they originally had to.

[Doug Brott]

I don't know, people seem to be interested in the QAM and cable card solutions for WMC, especially now that they are going to be able to buy tuner cards and install them personally rather than buying pre-built machines certified by cablelabs like they originally had to.

Are they really? A bunch of techies snatching these up because it's "cool" really doesn't qualify. It would have to be viable for the mainstream. I would expect a similar situation. Now on a different front, the Cable Card solution is based on a standard. This certainly would allow third parties to easily get into the game if all they were concerned about was creating the PCI card. Then the techies can have fun with this hobby just like anything else.

Still, most consumers won't go this route because of the complexity of the setup. Perhaps it will be more pervasive in 5-10 years, but even then I expect turnkey solutions which will very likely be Linux based rather than Windows based simply to keep the costs down.

[Beerstalker]

The thing is, they won't necessarily have to have a computer hooked up to the TV. About 4 years ago or so I built a new computer for my parents and installed WMC2005 on it. I then bought the Linksys MC Extender and put it in their living room. This worked as their DVR for 3 years and they were very happy with it (they are not computer literate at all, my mom can't even play games on the internet or check email without calling me for help). I was finally able to talk them into getting a Motorola HD-DVR though last year so they could actually watch some HD content on their 51" HDTV. Of course they keep tuning into the standard def channels instead because they forget to go to the 9XX HD channel to watch their shows.

Once companies come out with some nice media center extenders that work with Windows 7 (other than the Xbox 360) I think this market will really start to blossom. I can easily see someone making a Blu-Ray player with media center extender software built in since so many of them are already doing similar things with Netflix, Youtube, etc. I know I would be willing to ditch the crappy Motorola DVR and upgrade their computer with a QAM tuner and Windows 7. I'd really rather see them drop Comcast though and go with DirecTV. I just can't convince them to do this though because they have 8 TVs in the house and won't be willing to spend $35 a month just in receiver rentals to get TV on them when they get that for free with cable.

If I could build a PC with 6 tuners or so, and then just have extenders in each room hooked up to the TVs then it would be more of a possibility to get them to switch. It sounds like DirecTV is heading in this sort of direction already with their Whole Home DVR solution anyway.

[gregjones]

The thing is, they won't necessarily have to have a computer hooked up to the TV. About 4 years ago or so I built a new computer for my parents and installed WMC2005 on it. I then bought the Linksys MC Extender and put it in their living room. This worked as their DVR for 3 years and they were very happy with it (they are not computer literate at all, my mom can't even play games on the internet or check email without calling me for help). I was finally able to talk them into getting a Motorola HD-DVR though last year so they could actually watch some HD content on their 51" HDTV. Of course they keep tuning into the standard def channels instead because they forget to go to the 9XX HD channel to watch their shows.

Once companies come out with some nice media center extenders that work with Windows 7 (other than the Xbox 360) I think this market will really start to blossom. I can easily see someone making a Blu-Ray player with media center extender software built in since so many of them are already doing similar things with Netflix, Youtube, etc. I know I would be willing to ditch the crappy Motorola DVR and upgrade their computer with a QAM tuner and Windows 7. I'd really rather see them drop Comcast though and go with DirecTV. I just can't convince them to do this though because they have 8 TVs in the house and won't be willing to spend $35 a month just in receiver rentals to get TV on them when they get that for free with cable.

If I could build a PC with 6 tuners or so, and then just have extenders in each room hooked up to the TVs then it would be more of a possibility to get them to switch. It sounds like DirecTV is heading in this sort of direction already with their Whole Home DVR solution anyway.

I'm just going to play devil's advocate here for a moment. You balk at the $35/month lease fees for all the receivers but wouldn't complain about the cost of building a system with six tuners? Do you have any idea what the cost per tuner would be? Have you considered the memory requirements for running six tuners on top of Windows?

I understand the concern regarding upfront costs versus ongoing costs, but your solution would cost at least $1500 before adding the cost of the external tuners (which aren't being manufactured and would have a significant cost per tuner, I would imagine). The $1500 is being generous considering you would need to factor in things like disk contention and virus protection under Windows.

An alternative is to get 3 HR2x DVRs (upfront cost: $600), a small ION based PC ($199) and even an external 2TB hard drive ($179). That leaves more than $500 to offset the cost of the lease fees on the two extra DVRs (for the first 50 months). I do not factor in the cost of the other five locations because they were not factored into any other scenario. The ION pc can run whatever software you wish because it has a chipset supported by Windows and Linux.

[gregjones]

...Now on a different front, the Cable Card solution is based on a standard. This certainly would allow third parties to easily get into the game if all they were concerned about was creating the PCI card. Then the techies can have fun with this hobby just like anything else.

This is the key point. CableCard is a standard where the cost and market can be shared across multiple companies' client bases.

I don't think this has been brought up before but the largest growth in HTPC usage seems to be in multi-tenant dwellings. Often this is a kid in college that uses their nice monitor as their TV, hooking it up to the cable included in the rent of his dorm or apartment. That's a great market for HTPCs and a lousy one for DirecTV. This is particularly the market segment that has the hardest time deciding to put up a satellite dish. CableCard is an easy fit with them, though. Even a set of rabbit ears and a USB tuner are a better fit.

[CraigerCSM]

When Microsoft showed off Windows 7 they showed that it could have several things going across multiple HDTV's. I wonder why DTV wouldn't take advantage of that and have Windows Media Center be the central hub of DTV throughout the home? Unless they don't even need that because of MRV? However doing several thing across multiple TV's, wouldn't people think that would be cool to do? Have DTV in one room, a game going on another, a movie on another TV through PPV or VOD?

[smiddy]

Sometimes there are political struggles between companies. I'm not saying that is what happened, but it is possible.

[Doug Brott]

When Microsoft showed off Windows 7 they showed that it could have several things going across multiple HDTV's. I wonder why DTV wouldn't take advantage of that and have Windows Media Center be the central hub of DTV throughout the home? Unless they don't even need that because of MRV? However doing several thing across multiple TV's, wouldn't people think that would be cool to do? Have DTV in one room, a game going on another, a movie on another TV through PPV or VOD?

:shrug: I know my home is not wired for that. Most people just have coax and power to where their TV is located.

[Grentz]

I can tell you that WMC can do much more than our STBs can ever hope to achieve at this point. The MRV is solid, the recording capabilities are vast, and the GUI is top notch IMO. You also have huge support for other formats that can be integrated, very good set top boxes like the 360 and other units, and pretty much infinite recording space. It is of course more expensive and more technical than getting the STBs from Directv or your Cable Company...but much more powerful as well. Lifeware even goes up and beyond (and skyrockets the price) adding in more features and home automation.

Many use WMC for HTPCs, the issue has always been getting the content on to it and that is why it has never been extremely wide spread. That is also why things like Cablecards and the HDPC-20 were so highly anticipated by the people that understood what it meant for the future. Cablecards big issue is that the cable companies hate it and limit what is available through it in many areas, or just make it a PITA to get.

DirecTV's goals and such are completely their own. I know the reasons it does not have mass market appeal and will not be widespread ever, but I can say that there is an enthusiast and elite installer market that would jump on the opportunity of something like the HDCP-20. Lifeware alone, which is an add-on for WMC, can get into the 10s of thousands for a single install. Not ever going to be widespread, but a niche market that has some serious funds behind it. Let us not forget DirecTV does have interest in commercial and pro markets with their release of things like the HR21-PRO.

The really sad thing is if you look out there, besides Directv and Dish there are not many DVRs I would ever want to use. They are so terrible from most companies, and that is the main reason I was so excited about cablecards. It really is a shame that tech went down in flames like it did (though it was doomed from the start with the cable companies distaste for it). For me though I am still very happy with the DirecTV DVRs. I really like what they have done with them over the years and they are a very good platform that is one of the many reasons I have stuck with DirecTV for so long.

[harsh]

The biggest interest is in Linux (or even XBox) based implementations. The reason is simple.As is the reason that someone might be hesitant to agree to their IP being introduced into such a system.

Without (and perhaps even with) the DRM protections afforded by Microsoft, getting content providers to agree to be carried is a tough sell on Windows and nightmare on Linux with its relatively limitless possibilities and very industrious developer base.

[P Smith]

Grentz,
I think when someone like you become to be at that decision making position inside of a company, then such ideas start converting into real product. But that driving force just dissipating by retrogrades at top of the company who afraid innovations what could potentially erode current cash cow or simple out of their vision of future.

[P Smith]

As is the reason that someone might be hesitant to agree to their IP being introduced into such a system.

Without (and perhaps even with) the DRM protections afforded by Microsoft, getting content providers to agree to be carried is a tough sell on Windows and nightmare on Linux with its relatively limitless possibilities and very industrious developer base.

Follow by that postulate, we shouldn't have digital OTA.

[gregjones]

As is the reason that someone might be hesitant to agree to their IP being introduced into such a system.

Without (and perhaps even with) the DRM protections afforded by Microsoft, getting content providers to agree to be carried is a tough sell on Windows and nightmare on Linux with its relatively limitless possibilities and very industrious developer base.

Actually it explains the dead product. The only viable solution from a DRM perspective is Windows. The only viable solution from a customer perspective is not Windows. This leaves a product without an audience. That's when it's time to pull the plug. They did.

[P Smith]

Watching and writing/editing events (anything what you want) from OTA does making all your points nullified.

[Grentz]

Actually it explains the dead product. The only viable solution from a DRM perspective is Windows. The only viable solution from a customer perspective is not Windows. This leaves a product without an audience. That's when it's time to pull the plug. They did.

HTPC users are switching to WMC these days. Vista and now Win7 MC are very impressive updates over the past and bring to the table much of what the enthusiast crowd was craving. Myth, Sage, etc. are still very popular, but don't keep underestimating WMC.

There are some very impressive addins these days for WMC too.

[gregjones]

HTPC users are switching to WMC these days. Vista and now Win7 MC are very impressive updates over the past and bring to the table much of what the enthusiast crowd was craving. Myth, Sage, etc. are still very popular, but don't keep underestimating WMC.

There are some very impressive addins these days for WMC too.

WMC has some nice features. It is just hard to see the limited integration of a device like the HDPC-20 as a huge selling point for it. Even if WMC had 100% of the HTPC market, it would represent a very small portion of the DirecTV market.

Where CableCard has the ability to work for multiple providers, the DirecTV solution (or a Dish one) would have a much higher requirement for profitability. The market is fairly well divided among different platforms and software on those platforms. Even if it were a single choice on a single platform, it might have been too small a market for a profit.

[LarryFlowers]

WMC has some nice features. It is just hard to see the limited integration of a device like the HDPC-20 as a huge selling point for it. Even if WMC had 100% of the HTPC market, it would represent a very small portion of the DirecTV market.

Where CableCard has the ability to work for multiple providers, the DirecTV solution (or a Dish one) would have a much higher requirement for profitability. The market is fairly well divided among different platforms and software on those platforms. Even if it were a single choice on a single platform, it might have been too small a market for a profit.

You can forget pointing to, or looking toward, cablecard type solutions. Just a week ago, even the FCC admitted that the cablecard was a complete and utter failure... see http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2009/12/fcc-admits-cablecard-a-failure-vows-to-try-something-else.ars

[bidger]

You can forget pointing to, or looking toward, cablecard type solutions. Just a week ago, even the FCC admitted that the cablecard was a complete and utter failure... see http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2009/12/fcc-admits-cablecard-a-failure-vows-to-try-something-else.ars

Cable Labs, founded in 1988 by Cable Operating Companies, pretty much ensured it would be a "complete and utter failure". It's like leaving the mice in charge of the Cheese Store.

HTPC users are switching to WMC these days. Vista and now Win7 MC are very impressive updates over the past and bring to the table much of what the enthusiast crowd was craving. Myth, Sage, etc. are still very popular, but don't keep underestimating WMC.

There are some very impressive addins these days for WMC too.

I started with MCE2005, then Vista, and before the end of the year I'll upgrade to W7. I like the MCE2005 interface, but the leap to Vista's MC Interface was huge. And you're spot on about the add-ins. Given my choice, I'd prefer to use that interface for my DIRECTV viewing as I do for antenna. I know I'm not in the majority, but the majority of folks don't buy vinyl records and that's a niche market that does OK for itself.

[gregjones]

You can forget pointing to, or looking toward, cablecard type solutions. Just a week ago, even the FCC admitted that the cablecard was a complete and utter failure... see http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/news/2009/12/fcc-admits-cablecard-a-failure-vows-to-try-something-else.ars

You completely missed the point. CableCard had every advantage that this solution didn't and is still struggling. If CableCard, with a much wider base and significantly lower requirements, struggles then what is the hope for a product that has more requirements (DRM, attached satellite dish) and a higher cost with a much smaller population?

[gregjones]

...but the majority of folks don't buy vinyl records and that's a niche market that does OK for itself.

Vinyl records do not require customer support infrastructure to work. You buy the record and that is it. If you don't have a turntable, the company is not at fault. I understand your point, but it is a bad analogy.

[bidger]

Vinyl records do not require customer support infrastructure to work. You buy the record and that is it. If you don't have a turntable, the company is not at fault. I understand your point, but it is a bad analogy.

You think there's no customer support for companies that still manufacture records? You've never heard of a bad pressing? No mass-produced product is without defect and no company can entirely forsake a Customer Service Dept.

[wavemaster]

I for one have several xbox360's for media extending. I was hoping the DVR with the media extending would do the trick, but it failed dismally.

You cheerleaders can blindly follow what DTV tells you to (one thing that is unfortunate on this forum is there can be no NON DTV endorsed ideas without all the cheerleaders beating them down). I for one will be moving to the first company that can get my tv viewing integrated into the PC where I can extend it through my network.

So PC users are that unique here? That is laughable and to say there is a small market is equally laughable (unless a million users is small). Every friend I have (most of which I sold on DTV to begin with) would want this ASAP. Even my parents who are PC challenged have a MCPC in their house for all their extending.

I guess I'm just bothered by all the "DTV says we don't need it, so we don't need it tone".

If it's not for you - fine. But don't ASSume it isn't for anyone else.

[Doug Brott]

I for one have several xbox360's for media extending. I was hoping the DVR with the media extending would do the trick, but it failed dismally.

You cheerleaders can blindly follow what DTV tells you to (one thing that is unfortunate on this forum is there can be no NON DTV endorsed ideas without all the cheerleaders beating them down). I for one will be moving to the first company that can get my tv viewing integrated into the PC where I can extend it through my network.

So PC users are that unique here? That is laughable and to say there is a small market is equally laughable (unless a million users is small). Every friend I have (most of which I sold on DTV to begin with) would want this ASAP. Even my parents who are PC challenged have a MCPC in their house for all their extending.

I guess I'm just bothered by all the "DTV says we don't need it, so we don't need it tone".

If it's not for you - fine. But don't ASSume it isn't for anyone else.

No one said that YOU didn't need it. I'm saying this is a niche market. It's great that your parents have this in their house. Did they have the idea and set it up themselves or did you play a part in making it happen?

As for DIRECTV saying that we don't need it, what DIRECTV did (not say) is not release the product. DIRECTV decided that THEY didn't need it and in this situation, YOU suffered. It's unfortunate that you are bothered by this, but in the corporate world, all companies (including DIRECTV) are in business to make money. Clearly they decided that this product wasn't something that they wanted in their portfolio and we are where we are today. I'd love it if my bank decided out of the goodness of their heart to deposit a few thousand dollars in my account, but I suspect that would just be wishful thinking on my part.

[wavemaster]

No one said that YOU didn't need it. I'm saying this is a niche market. It's great that your parents have this in their house. Did they have the idea and set it up themselves or did you play a part in making it happen?

As for DIRECTV saying that we don't need it, what DIRECTV did (not say) is not release the product. DIRECTV decided that THEY didn't need it and in this situation, YOU suffered. It's unfortunate that you are bothered by this, but in the corporate world, all companies (including DIRECTV) are in business to make money. Clearly they decided that this product wasn't something that they wanted in their portfolio and we are where we are today. I'd love it if my bank decided out of the goodness of their heart to deposit a few thousand dollars in my account, but I suspect that would just be wishful thinking on my part.


So it is your belief that the PC/Media is a niche market, I believe it is a large market fully capable of supporting the development of a PC card or Box. Doesn't matter we can disagree.

Again, the first company to get it gets my money. In this case it was over $2,000.00 from me to DTV last year. Most of my friends have similar bills so it will add up quick - when only a few thousand switch it will mean millions in monthly revenue. BTW - Having it would also BRING subs from other services that are waiting/wanting.

You "Money Only" guys - have you ever heard of a loss leader? When another company gets it (Dish, FIOS, Cable etc.) DTV WILL lose subs. This in the end will all end up costing more for the subs that are left. So in DirectTV's case staying ahead in technology will allow them to continue to grow. Don't fear it, and even more so if you don't plan on using it.

When I started with D in 98 the company and users alike seemed to be technically savvy. The company was an innovator which is why a LOT of users went with them to begin with. It's a shame to see that go.

[wavemaster]

It's great that your parents have this in their house. Did they have the idea and set it up themselves or did you play a part in making it happen?


And to answer your question, they saw what I had and asked if I could do the same for them - which I did. But I don't see how that matters.

They didn't invent or think up their television either - but did see one somewhere and decided it was worth purchasing one.

I'm pretty sure they didn't invent or think up most of the things in their life - They are just the consumer type.

[CraigerCSM]

No one said that YOU didn't need it. I'm saying this is a niche market. It's great that your parents have this in their house. Did they have the idea and set it up themselves or did you play a part in making it happen?

As for DIRECTV saying that we don't need it, what DIRECTV did (not say) is not release the product. DIRECTV decided that THEY didn't need it and in this situation, YOU suffered. It's unfortunate that you are bothered by this, but in the corporate world, all companies (including DIRECTV) are in business to make money. Clearly they decided that this product wasn't something that they wanted in their portfolio and we are where we are today. I'd love it if my bank decided out of the goodness of their heart to deposit a few thousand dollars in my account, but I suspect that would just be wishful thinking on my part.

I think if DTV did an internal tuner card that would have been more profitable and less expensive to make then an external box. I think maybe people wouldn't have wanted to add another set-top box to their setup?

[wavemaster]

I think if DTV did an internal tuner card that would have been more profitable and less expensive to make then an external box. I think maybe people wouldn't have wanted to add another set-top box to their setup?

Totally agree. This would also allow for any OS that could run on a PC that had drivers for it and be DRM compliant.

[Justin23]

I think if DTV did an internal tuner card that would have been more profitable and less expensive to make then an external box. I think maybe people wouldn't have wanted to add another set-top box to their setup?

I'm just curious...what's with the fascination with not wanting to add another set-top box? I've seen it across multiple threads that you have posted. Is there some STB phobia that we aren't aware of yet? ;) Just wondering...

[CraigerCSM]

I'm just curious...what's with the fascination with not wanting to add another set-top box? I've seen it across multiple threads that you have posted. Is there some STB phobia that we aren't aware of yet? ;) Just wondering...

I don't like all the wires that come with having multiple boxes. I would like having everything all in one. Also having to flip between video inputs to view other devices. The only one bad thing about that is what happens if one part of the all in one box breaks?

[Beerstalker]

Wavemaster, you may be interested in this if you haven't already seen it. There are supposedly more vendors coming out with similar devices next year too. I would expect there will be a few of them at CES.

http://ati.amd.com/products/tvwonderdigital/index.html

[Ganome_Danome]

I don't like all the wires that come with having multiple boxes. I would like having everything all in one. Also having to flip between video inputs to view other devices. The only one bad thing about that is what happens if one part of the all in one box breaks?

I feel exactly the same way. I have my PC hooked up to my 32 inch HDTV and spend more time on the PC/internet than I do on my HR20 watching tv. Switching back and forth is a pain in the butt, and a waste of power and space, and frankly hardware (the HDD is going to be dying soon and I'll have to replace it with an external one - sigh).

I am getting more and more disillusioned by DTV by the month. They just simply aren't offering me the type of service I'm looking for, but the alternatives aren't up to snuff yet (this is one of those times that I hate being on the forefront of change). As soon as I can get everything through my PC/media extenders, I'll switch to it in a heartbeat.

As for the one bad thing, if you know anything at all about building your own PC, then a hardware problem shouldn't be an issue. If you are buying your HTPC through Dell though, then just stick to DTV's antiquated methods.

[wavemaster]

I feel exactly the same way. I have my PC hooked up to my 32 inch HDTV and spend more time on the PC/internet than I do on my HR20 watching tv. Switching back and forth is a pain in the butt, and a waste of power and space, and frankly hardware (the HDD is going to be dying soon and I'll have to replace it with an external one - sigh).

I am getting more and more disillusioned by DTV by the month. They just simply aren't offering me the type of service I'm looking for, but the alternatives aren't up to snuff yet (this is one of those times that I hate being on the forefront of change). As soon as I can get everything through my PC/media extenders, I'll switch to it in a heartbeat.

As for the one bad thing, if you know anything at all about building your own PC, then a hardware problem shouldn't be an issue. If you are buying your HTPC through Dell though (not you personally Craiger), then just stick to DTV's antiquated methods.

Well said!

WELCOME TO THE FORUMS!

[Doug Brott]

As for the one bad thing, if you know anything at all about building your own PC, then a hardware problem shouldn't be an issue. If you are buying your HTPC through Dell though (not you personally Craiger), then just stick to DTV's antiquated methods.

I wouldn't say "antiquated" so much as "current" The HTPC market is emerging, yes, but it's still in it's infancy with regards to making headway in a normal home. The simplest HTPC would simply use OTA and wouldn't even bring DIRECTV or cable into the picture. Content providers will want to be protected meaning any HTPC that is going to meet success will have to take that into consideration regardless of whether it's a specific product, a consortium or a group of hobbyists. Anything else will bring a legal hammer that will stop the project in it's tracks. These things will ultimately need to be worked out. The same thing happened with Sat TV, Music Downloads, etc. etc.

So, this emerging technology is still 5-10 years out for even moderate traction. To think otherwise would be wishful thinking.

Not everyone has a PC, and many who do only have a Laptop because they like to take it with them or use it in different rooms. So, for most people (not the techies here), this means getting an additional PC and then perhaps feeder boxes for remote viewing. Don't see this happening any time soon. Folks just want to turn the TV on want watch something.

[wavemaster]

I wouldn't say "antiquated" so much as "current" The HTPC market is emerging, yes, but it's still in it's infancy with regards to making headway in a normal home. The simplest HTPC would simply use OTA and wouldn't even bring DIRECTV or cable into the picture. Content providers will want to be protected meaning any HTPC that is going to meet success will have to take that into consideration regardless of whether it's a specific product, a consortium or a group of hobbyists. Anything else will bring a legal hammer that will stop the project in it's tracks. These things will ultimately need to be worked out. The same thing happened with Sat TV, Music Downloads, etc. etc.

So, this emerging technology is still 5-10 years out for even moderate traction. To think otherwise would be wishful thinking.

Not everyone has a PC, and many who do only have a Laptop because they like to take it with them or use it in different rooms. So, for most people (not the techies here), this means getting an additional PC and then perhaps feeder boxes for remote viewing. Don't see this happening any time soon. Folks just want to turn the TV on want watch something.

Why does it have to be "Everyone". 500,000 users would MORE than cover the cost. Also if it added subs because of it, it is a double whammy. WHY does DTV have WE network when only 10% of the subs watch it? It doesn't need to be everyone to work. When I got my first HD box there was only a fraction of the users out there that had HD, and DTV lost money on it for years. I'm sure glad they didn't throw out that idea because EVERYONE wouldn't use it.

And honestly if you think the PC/Media marriage is 5-10 years away, WOW. I sure hope you don't get to call the shots in the DTV meetings. It is already here. If I were on the board I would never vote against technology. It's what built the company and can continue to sustain/grow it.

[Ganome_Danome]

I wouldn't say "antiquated" so much as "current" The HTPC market is emerging, yes, but it's still in it's infancy with regards to making headway in a normal home. The simplest HTPC would simply use OTA and wouldn't even bring DIRECTV or cable into the picture. Content providers will want to be protected meaning any HTPC that is going to meet success will have to take that into consideration regardless of whether it's a specific product, a consortium or a group of hobbyists. Anything else will bring a legal hammer that will stop the project in it's tracks. These things will ultimately need to be worked out. The same thing happened with Sat TV, Music Downloads, etc. etc.

So, this emerging technology is still 5-10 years out for even moderate traction. To think otherwise would be wishful thinking.

Not everyone has a PC, and many who do only have a Laptop because they like to take it with them or use it in different rooms. So, for most people (not the techies here), this means getting an additional PC and then perhaps feeder boxes for remote viewing. Don't see this happening any time soon. Folks just want to turn the TV on want watch something.


True, and they will continue to have companies like DTV feeding them the "old way" of doing it (at least for the foreseeable future). And at the same time DTV will continue to be less and less appealing to people that want options. Once they lose those people, and more importantly, the people they influence, they will have one hell of a time luring them back.

[gregjones]

So PC users are that unique here? That is laughable and to say there is a small market is equally laughable (unless a million users is small). Every friend I have (most of which I sold on DTV to begin with) would want this ASAP. Even my parents who are PC challenged have a MCPC in their house for all their extending.

I guess I'm just bothered by all the "DTV says we don't need it, so we don't need it tone".

If it's not for you - fine. But don't ASSume it isn't for anyone else.

No, you are putting an emphasis in my post that doesn't exist. There may be demand for it. Unless there is a demand for it and a potential for profit, it won't be a product.

There's a lot of demand for free premium channels and unlimited PPV. Wishing doesn't make it a viable product.

If you can explain how DirecTV can meet that following goals, I am sure they will appreciate the input.

Record progams without fear of DRM lawsuits
Record programs without fear of DirecTV being negatively impacted in content carriage negotiations
Integrate well in the MCE environment (in Vista and 7 to be viable)
Have the increase in subscribers or additional lease/mirror fees offset the cost of ongoing customer and technical support (plus manufacturing costs)


That last bullet is the issue. DirecTV is not in the PC support business. Given their track record with explaining networks to consumers, I am not very hopeful on that front. See, if you had read my post carefully you would see that I don't think DirecTV can adequately support the product at a price that would make it attractive.

[gregjones]

Totally agree. This would also allow for any OS that could run on a PC that had drivers for it and be DRM compliant.

A card cannot be DRM compliant, per se. DRM is generally handled at the OS or driver level. If it is at the driver level, it means the storage of content has to be part of the device, which would rule out a card.

[Beerstalker]

They just have someone like ATI work with them to make a device similar to the one for CableCards, only it uses a DirecTV card instead to access DirecTV channels. Windows Media Center is responsible for the DRM, guide info, etc. All they would have to worry about is explaining to ATI how to decrypt their signal, ATI would then put that into the format WMC needs and sends it out over USB.

They then charge a similar fee to that for the Cable Card product, consider it a sale, and keep charging the $5 mirroring fee.

[zopewolk]

Most people just want to watch TV on their TV. A $200 STB is much cheaper than a $200 adapter + a $1500 PC. I don't think it gets any more basic than that.

well if they (DirecTV) would have used that logic when the HDPC-20 was in development, it would have never even made to beta, and they would have saved tons of money.

[wavemaster]

A card cannot be DRM compliant, per se. DRM is generally handled at the OS or driver level. If it is at the driver level, it means the storage of content has to be part of the device, which would rule out a card.

I said at the OS. The OS needs to have a driver for the card and DRM support.

[Doug Brott]

And honestly if you think the PC/Media marriage is 5-10 years away, WOW. I sure hope you don't get to call the shots in the DTV meetings. It is already here. If I were on the board I would never vote against technology. It's what built the company and can continue to sustain/grow it.

The technology is there, yes but there are many more non-technological issues to be resolved PLUS folks gaining market share. A Leichtman Research Group, Inc. report (http://www.leichtmanresearch.com/research/notes09_2009.pdf) indicates that "36% of TV households in the United States have at least one DVR." This is a full 10 years after the first TiVo's were first introduced to the marketplace. Even DVRs are still on a growth path.

HTPC, I'm sorry, is in it's infancy today. If you expect mainstream acceptance (which is what it will take) early than 5-10 years out, then you will be disappointed. If you are talking about things like MediaShare whereby DIRECTV can play something from your PC on your receiver, then that is closer. But full fledged sharing of all kinds of media the way your suggesting requires a number of other things to happen first. Heck, 10 years from now the PC/Media device you are referring to may simply look like the USB memory sticks of today. Not only does it do what you want, but you can put it in your pocket and take it with you.

These things take time. I don't see it happening as quickly as you do. Which best I can tell you're saying "today."

[wavemaster]

.... HTPC, I'm sorry, is in it's infancy today. If you expect mainstream acceptance (which is what it will take) early than 5-10 years out, then you will be disappointed. If you are talking about things like MediaShare whereby DIRECTV can play something from your PC on your receiver, then that is closer. But full fledged sharing of all kinds of media the way your suggesting requires a number of other things to happen first. Heck, 10 years from now the PC/Media device you are referring to may simply look like the USB memory sticks of today. Not only does it do what you want, but you can put it in your pocket and take it with you.

These things take time. I don't see it happening as quickly as you do. Which best I can tell you're saying "today."

We have the entire house feeding off a MC with XBox 360's as extenders, as well as a direct HDMI feed to a Gefin switch. Anyone in the house can tap the entire music collection, the entire movie collection, Netflix, slideshows, home movies (in a ton of formats), OTA etc. - now, not in 5 years. I know a bunch of people doing the same thing. So you may be 5 to 10 years away, but there are a whole lot of us doing it now. Enough to develop a card or device that would plug in.

[Grentz]

The main thing I think they are missing out on is the high end niche market they could go for. They could gain a lot of high end, big spender customers (monthly fees!) by coming out with a device that worked well with WMC. They could even charge $1k + for it and still sell a lot in the niche market of high end custom installed systems. A lot of these systems at this point are stuck with cable or even simply OTA in many areas and the customers are craving a good TV input for their $20k-$100k system.

I agree totally with your points Doug for the mainstream and think you are right on, but not all the money is in the mainstream and I think they are missing some potential. I hope they know about it though and maybe have already done scenarios on it and just found it not to be what they are looking for as far as return.

You completely missed the point. CableCard had every advantage that this solution didn't and is still struggling. If CableCard, with a much wider base and significantly lower requirements, struggles then what is the hope for a product that has more requirements (DRM, attached satellite dish) and a higher cost with a much smaller population?

The issue with cablecard was very simple. All the TV and Set top box companies wanted it, all the distribution providers (IE cable companies) did not want it. FCC stepped in, cable cos were forced to provide cable cards, but still dragged their feet and made it tough for consumers to get them in most areas and never advertised them or promoted them much at all.

Barely any consumers understood/understand what cable cards were/are. Soon TV companies gave up and stopped integrating them, and only a few set top box companies like Tivo had any real continuing interest.

Cablecards were a sweet technology that should have benefited everyone, but cable companies got greedy and wanted to lease set top boxes filled with advertising and other crap to consumers and never marketed it heavily enough to their consumers.

[Tom Robertson]

I suspect a lot of this came down to a couple of things including:

Niche market. Don't kid yourself, ain't millions of these gonna sell anytime soon.
Software delays...
DIRECTV2PC is out and available to perform a similar (enough) function
Did I mention Niche market :)


I know you guys think this is a big, big seller, but really it isn't. There are 70M cable customers, only 18M DIRECTV customers.

Cheers,
Tom

[Grentz]

I suspect a lot of this came down to a couple of things including:

Niche market. Don't kid yourself, ain't millions of these gonna sell anytime soon.
Software delays...
DIRECTV2PC is out and available to perform a similar (enough) function
Did I mention Niche market :)


I know you guys think this is a big, big seller, but really it isn't. There are 70M cable customers, only 18M DIRECTV customers.

Cheers,
Tom

True, I had the feeling that DirecTV put their eggs in the DirecTV2PC basket...which overall was the better move for their mainstream customer base.

[ToddD]

I suspect a lot of this came down to a couple of things including:

Niche market. Don't kid yourself, ain't millions of these gonna sell anytime soon.
Software delays...
DIRECTV2PC is out and available to perform a similar (enough) function
Did I mention Niche market :)


I know you guys think this is a big, big seller, but really it isn't. There are 70M cable customers, only 18M DIRECTV customers.

Cheers,
Tom

As someone who was involved with this product in some way that I guess I'm still not contractually allowed to discuss- I'd look closely at Tom"s list. especially at point 2- But the whole list.

CES is coming up soon. Word is that Microsoft will have some very interesting things to show around Media Center. Might just be some Dish networks people around somewhere.

[paulh]

The "expensive niche product" argument seems both wrong and true to me.
When D* was launched in the 80's home many niche people spent $1000 (I'm guessing that is more than a HTPV in today's money) to install their own dish? Then, how many niche people spent $1000 for a DVR or an HD-DVR? The cost, alone, does not derail that market for me.

What gets me, though, is my general PC experience. MS only supports and provides updates for ~5-7 years? How many older D* receivers are still in use? This year, my 4 year old Laptop with XP and 512MB RAM (respectable when I bought it) got to the point it was just grinding along, barely do anything, even with just IE open. I finally upgraded to 1GB RAM and it works like a new PC, again. I still do not think an HTPC is "prime time" if the computer you bought 4 years ago can no longer function reasonably with just the standard OS and application updates. Then you have to get into the support structure you have to provide because average Joe is demanding someone fix his TV because he bought the premium $1500 HTPC deal...and there may be more total reasons con vs pro...

[inkahauts]

I almost think that we are more likely to see more and more devices like our set top boxes perform like computers and surf the web than we are going to see HTPCs take over...

[CJTE]

The "expensive niche product" argument seems both wrong and true to me.
When D* was launched in the 80's home many niche people spent $1000 (I'm guessing that is more than a HTPV in today's money) to install their own dish? Then, how many niche people spent $1000 for a DVR or an HD-DVR? The cost, alone, does not derail that market for me.

What gets me, though, is my general PC experience. MS only supports and provides updates for ~5-7 years? How many older D* receivers are still in use? This year, my 4 year old Laptop with XP and 512MB RAM (respectable when I bought it) got to the point it was just grinding along, barely do anything, even with just IE open. I finally upgraded to 1GB RAM and it works like a new PC, again. I still do not think an HTPC is "prime time" if the computer you bought 4 years ago can no longer function reasonably with just the standard OS and application updates. Then you have to get into the support structure you have to provide because average Joe is demanding someone fix his TV because he bought the premium $1500 HTPC deal...and there may be more total reasons con vs pro...

in the 80's?
DirecTV started in 94...
Are you thinking of USSB maybe?

[rjsimmons]

I suspect a lot of this came down to a couple of things including:

Niche market. Don't kid yourself, ain't millions of these gonna sell anytime soon.
Software delays...
DIRECTV2PC is out and available to perform a similar (enough) function
Did I mention Niche market :)


I know you guys think this is a big, big seller, but really it isn't. There are 70M cable customers, only 18M DIRECTV customers.

Cheers,
Tom

Point one is on target. Integrating a PC into a home entertainment setup is definitely limited at this time. Primairly because services like DirecTV do not integrate well.
Point 2 is something I cannot speak to. But I do use WMC in several palces around my home and I would *really* like to be able to integrate it into WMC.
Point 3 is just wrong. DIRECTV2PC does not even begin to integrate DirecTV into WMC. Please.
Again, it is a niche market because the primary delivery services do not integrate *at all* into WMC. And do not talk about cable card as an alternative. The cost is too high, the service is difficult to integrate, and, as has been said elsewhere, the cable companies have made the technology practically useless.

If DirecTV provided an internal or external box that integrated with WMC at a pricepoint equivalent to one of thier HR2x boxes the pickup would be significant, even if it is only picked up by the HTPC sector of the market to start with.

I really love my DirecTV service. DVRs and MRV really add to it. The quality is excellent. But even with this, I would move in a heartbeat to another provider that allowed effective integration with WMC. There is just no way to compare the single source experience to a truly integrated enviornment.

I am not interented in arguing this point. I am just relating how I view the current situation.

Best to all.
Ron

[hdtvfan0001]

Not all tech projects see the light of day.

Having attended the CES this past January - I saw plenty of "emerging technology" and "pending technology" things - some still are no where to be found, and may never see the light of day.

There has to be a revenue model established to support the production of these "beta technologies", and that just doesn't happen every time.

[P Smith]

Can I remind you, the box was SECOND attempt to bring the PC solution to us. First card built in year 1997. I would think it is a trend.

[gregjones]

Can I remind you, the box was SECOND attempt to bring the PC solution to us. First card built in year 1997. I would think it is a trend.

Sometimes it takes longer to get a product to market than the market is willing to wait. Sometimes the market evaporates before the product arrives. Oh, well.

[lee78221]

I hope DirecTV does release a PC tuner or the equivalent(I would buy it in a heart beat).

Right now I'm using my PC to record OTA channels and splitting it with my HDDVR(for non-OTA channels). After my contract is up that will be the deal breaker for me(If DirecTV doesn't have a PC tuner or the equivalent).

[Doug Brott]

I hope DirecTV does release a PC tuner or the equivalent(I would buy it in a heart beat).

Right now I'm using my PC to record OTA channels and splitting it with my HDDVR(for non-OTA channels). After my contract is up that will be the deal breaker for me(If DirecTV doesn't have a PC tuner or the equivalent).

Don't look for a PC Tuner to show up anytime in the reasonable future.

[Mike_TV]

Don't look for a PC Tuner to show up anytime in the reasonable future.

No doubt. We've been talking about it for years now.

[DarinC]

Don't look for a PC Tuner to show up anytime in the reasonable future.

And this may prove to be the "straw" that finally pushes me to switch to cable. I'm moving towards 100% HTPC bit by bit. I've built a server that I'm ripping my entire DVD/Blu-ray collection to. I've put HDHomeRun tuners on my network, and have switched all network recording from the DVRs to the HTPCs, which gets saved to the same server. I've upgraded all my PCs to Win7, and a < $50 video card upgrade was all that was needed to get older PCs HD capable. I now have PCs connected to more displays in my home than DVRs... I can now watch centrally stored Network TV/DVD/Blu-ray content in any room, while premium content from DirecTV is "less accessible". Increasing storage space is a simple matter of physically adding a drive and a few clicks of the mouse, and it's all protectected with parity-based backup.

The Win7 MC interface is really nice. It's not perfect... the biggest usability flaw IMO is FF/RR... autocorrect is sorely missed. But I've only been working on this for the past few months, and Win7 is brand new. As I learn more about it, and as MS and 3rd parties add features, I expect the experience will improve over time. Once the new 4 tuner cablecard tuners come out next year, it will be very hard to justify spending more $$ for DirecTV to continue the more restrictive infrastructure for my premium TV content. The only open questions for me at this point is Comcast's HD PQ, and the playback restrictions of content flagged as protected.

HTPCs may still be a niche product, but it wasn't that long ago that home PCs and satellite TV were too. More and more people are getting acustomed to watching content via PCs... from Hulu, Netflix, etc. It may simply evolve, rather than being a conscious move to a PC platform.

[CraigerCSM]

The main thing I think they are missing out on is the high end niche market they could go for. They could gain a lot of high end, big spender customers (monthly fees!) by coming out with a device that worked well with WMC. They could even charge $1k + for it and still sell a lot in the niche market of high end custom installed systems. A lot of these systems at this point are stuck with cable or even simply OTA in many areas and the customers are craving a good TV input for their $20k-$100k system.

I agree totally with your points Doug for the mainstream and think you are right on, but not all the money is in the mainstream and I think they are missing some potential. I hope they know about it though and maybe have already done scenarios on it and just found it not to be what they are looking for as far as return.



The issue with cablecard was very simple. All the TV and Set top box companies wanted it, all the distribution providers (IE cable companies) did not want it. FCC stepped in, cable cos were forced to provide cable cards, but still dragged their feet and made it tough for consumers to get them in most areas and never advertised them or promoted them much at all.

Barely any consumers understood/understand what cable cards were/are. Soon TV companies gave up and stopped integrating them, and only a few set top box companies like Tivo had any real continuing interest.

Cablecards were a sweet technology that should have benefited everyone, but cable companies got greedy and wanted to lease set top boxes filled with advertising and other crap to consumers and never marketed it heavily enough to their consumers.

I wonder why they couldn't go use the cable ready tech on the analog sets and use that on the HDTV's?

[Doug Brott]

HTPCs may still be a niche product, but it wasn't that long ago that home PCs and satellite TV were too. More and more people are getting acustomed to watching content via PCs... from Hulu, Netflix, etc. It may simply evolve, rather than being a conscious move to a PC platform.

I have no doubt that some form of HTPC will prove useful to many people .. Likely it will take the form of a STB even due to aesthetics. My only argument is that we are many years out (5-10) for anyone other than enthusiasts or those with enthusiasts friends/family willing to help.

I'd also say that folks with OTA access and an affinity for movies (vs. sports) are also going to get more early benefit than folks that watch sports and cable programming (non OTA).

[paulh]

I wonder why they couldn't go use the cable ready tech on the analog sets and use that on the HDTV's?

..like why you can usually get analog CNN with no box, but need(ed) a box to get analog HBO?

analog takes more bandwidth, and most cable companies have more bandwidth issues than D* I think one analog channel = 10 SD digital channels or 2 (3 if they're greedy) HD channels

There is digital clear QAM that cable companies can broadcast, and many ATSC tuners (in HDTV's) can tune in those "free" QAM signals with no box, and usually cable companies provide a few of those open channels (like locals and perhaps a few music channels) But since cable companies are in the business of making money, then they scramble most channels, and that requires a box or cablecard to decode.

[BDA123]

I think this debate is missing a few key trends.
- First of all, the integration of new technologies are not linear but exponential meaning that when they take off they spread at an increasing rate. 5 to 10 years to far longer than what will really happen. Most DVRs break down in 3. I would say your timeline is more like 3-5.
-Costs have decreased significantly. You can buy a ultra small, lower power consumption Atom 330 HTPC that will do everything in the HTPC arena well for about $300. Price changes everything.
-Windows 7 Media Center is finanlly an excellent interface with built in codecs. In fact, I have no problems playing my entire dvd/bluray content and could show my grandmother how to do it.
-But, most importantly content delivery is changing even faster than many consumers are changing. Content is being delivered by amazon, youtube, hulu, and netflix. Change is no longer an R&D idea for DirectTV it is a requirement to exist in 5 years. Consumers get a new computer every few years and all new computers will have the ability to watch HD content via these providers. Silverlight and Flash 10 have made that possible. If all you had to do was go click on the media center icon, click netflix and get any movie you wanted would you get HBO. If you could pay $5 a month for ESPN360 with 5 different shows to choose from would you still pay $50 for cable. No, so neither will my grandmother. The content will follow the $ and the $ is where the advertising can be targeted and quantified. The encoding technology is fully available to view content via almost any source which leave cable and DirectTV fighting with the providers of the content. Why do you think Comcast is making the move on NBC? Because the writing is on the wall. The future will involve much less intermediation then you see today and it isn't 10 years in the future. I just replaced my wife's grandmothers computer with this capability and yes it will take a couple of years for her to use it, but that isn't 10.

Case in point Redbox. At first it was a niche. However, make it cheap enough (price) and easy enough (accessibility) and it scares Hollywood into paniced lawsuits and destroys Blockbuster/Hollywood Video's bottom line. Netflix is the only company with a strategy to bypass Redbox and that is because they will be delivering a large percentage of their content digitally within 2 years. I was installing home theater systems twenty years ago in college so I can see the home theater side of the HTPC equation being much slower, but digital content delivery is growing exponentially and the only place to get a one size fits all solution is the HTPC. Sorry. And if you think the trend is picking up speed in the US, you should take a better look at Asia and Europe.

[Doug Brott]

BDA123,

How many years has it taken to adopt High Definition TV? We're talking going from the old analog (via Cable, Sat, Whatever) to today. Many, Many years. The OTA transition was originally supposed to happen long, long ago but only made it's way this year. No doubt it will change, but 2 yrs? Come on, humans aren't geared for turning on a dime and there are way too many hurdles for a paradigm shift that large in 2 years. We're talking off-the-shelf acceptance here. DVRs are probably close now and we're 10 years from the first DVRs. Yet still today, only 1 in 3 TV households have a DVR. There are still many, many, many people (2/3) that watch only Live TV (or VCR'd) TV. There simply is no founding basis past wishful thinking to say that HTPC will be mainstream in "a couple of years" years.

[BDA123]

First of all I said 3-5 years. DVRs have only been even remotely a wide spread option for 5 and only affordable for 3 years. Humans don't turn on dimes they turn on dollars. ;) The digital push for TVs was not consumer driven and is therefore not even a consideration. It was a bandwidth/regulatory move and required forcing consumers not enticing them. The $40 was a joke. People want a cheaper price and easier accessibility. Digital delivery provides both. That means the shift will be consumer driven. Humans change as fast as they are motivated to do so. It is usually technology slowing them down. In this case nearly all of the hurdles have been removed. Take a look at the Netbook explosion. About 22 million sold this year. Did you ever think that possible three years ago when they were talking fluff about making cheap computers for third world countries? Of course you didn't. Where market demand, price, and availablity meet you have consumer explosions. It will take as long as the average consumer takes to replace their current technology. For TVs that has taken a while, but computers move much faster. Now a large chunk of the US consumer market will have the technology available without much of any additional cost in the next three years. Also I don't think people will do it for a better looking picture. 2 out of 3 people don't care that much. But they care about their money and their time. Also, you are right about how many people watch live TV, but no one VCRs TV anymore. JVC isn't even making VCRs anymore and most of the old one's don't have digital tuners. The digital TV shift was fixed by consumers buying LCD and Plasma TVs with built in tuners.

[DarinC]

I just don't understand the belief that an HTPC is far too esoteric to be adopted by a decent portion of the market. DirecTV starting off as a self-installed option, with consumers buying STBs and satellite dishes, pointing, wiring, and setting up themselves. Sure, they got a much larger portion of the market when it became as easy as having a truck roll out and install it just like cable. But they didn't do bad before all that. Comparatively speaking, specialized software on a PC is fairly mainstream. And there are lots of ways people get drawn to them. Personally, I did it because I wanted my DVD collection electronically centralized. Others may do it because of online content. Others may do it to reduce hardware redundancy.

It's becoming common for people to have multiple PCs in their homes. MS is really starting to market the media center functionality. I don't think market acceptance is as far off as many seem to think.

[BDA123]

I couldn't agree more. I did it because I was sick of having my kids destroy our CDs and because my two old ReplayTVs didn't work right with the new digital tuners I had to install. That being said, I now have 5 computers in my home 4 of which are running Windows 7 and all cost under $450 each. All of my music, movies, and streaming content can be seen in every room. They each use less then 40 watts each, turn themselves on at 7 am into W7MC and are virtually silent. I have to admit that I was never impressed with XP MC, Vista MC, or any of the other media players. They were all too hard to setup and maintain, slow, poorly integrated, and not user friendly. Our ReplayTVs were just too easy. Windows 7 is finally a breath of fresh air. We stream content from Netflix and if I miss recording a show on the TV in the family room I just go to ABC.com and watch it. The movie library is incredible once you add the metadata to the movies and maintains itself for free with My Movies 3. Everyone I know that has seen it wants to setup their system this way over time. Again the key is over time. It is just a matter or replacing your current computers as they begin to die.

[Doug Brott]

First of all I said 3-5 years.

Well, I still say 5-10 .. I suppose we could both be right :)

[frankv]

BDA123, I sent you a PM.

[BDA123]

Frank ask me about my setup so here it is. I was going to respond just to him, but I have to have 5 posts first so here is the entire info.

Sure, I have two laptops and three PCs. Two of the PCs are dedicated HTPCs and other is a in our office. I am using Windows 7 on all of them (x86 on two and x64 on three). I have all of the PCs and one of the laptops hooked together on a wired gigabit home network. I store all of my movies and recorded TV on the main HTPC in the family room and stream the content to the other computers. The main HTPC is a Nvidia Ion Atom 330 based Mini Itx computer with a 1TB hard drive (movies), a 1.5TB hard drive (50gb OS partition, 1.45gb recorded HD TV), a Hauppauge 2250 dual tuner, and a blu-ray drive. I use Gyration remote controls/keyboards (RF) on both HTPCs. My HTPC in the loft/playroom is a Acer Revo 1600 (Nvidia Ion Atom 230) with an extra gig of memory. I have a usb tuner hooked to it and use it as backup for recording TV. My desktop in the office is also a Nvidia Ion Atom 330 based mini Itx setup with a SSD drive for the OS and a 320 gig for all the music and pictures. I store all our music and pictures on the office pc and stream it to the rest of the network. I have Itunes and 5 Ipods hooked up in the office PC. My HTPC setups are pretty simple and I keep them simple so that I can create a system image on a regular basis just in case. I have a $38 OTA digital antenna hooked to my roof and I get perfect OTA 1080i content from all of the local channels and I am about 30 miles from the towers. I have the following software on my HTPCs.
- Windows 7 Home Premium
- Adobe Flash 10 (HD online streaming)
- MS Silverlight (HD online streaming)
- Adobe Reader (view .pdf files)
- AnyDVD HD (takes the write protection off my DVDs)
- CloneDVD (copy DVDs to the hard drive)
- My Movies 3 (works inside of W7MC and monitors your movies library for new folders and downloads the metadata for new movies when they are added to the hard drive)
- CoreAVC (needed to play blu-ray discs from within WMP12 and W7MC)
- MakeMKV (turns blu-ray discs into .mkv files so that they can be played as single files in WMP12 and W7MC)
- AC3Filter (allows me to get 5.1 Dolby/DTS audio via SPDIF optical audio)
I have a 46" 1080p Sharp LCD in my family room and a 32" 720p Visio LCD in my loft. I have a very inexpensive $175 (Costco) Philips 5.1 home theater system (reciever, sub, and 5 other speakers) in the family room that works great. We watch owned movies anywhere in the house streamed from the familly room HTPC. I have our Netflix account login info setup in all of the Windows 7 Media Center setups throughout the house. I used to have cable but got sick of paying the bill. I now just record TV (in 1080i which is actually much better quality then I was getting from my local cable provider) and I can store up to 250 hours of HD TV content on my 1.45TB hard drive. We own a lot of Disney movies (in fact I just purchased the GForce Blu-ray today from Walmart for $10 ($20 on sale minus an extra $10 coupon from Disney (available online)) I get Nic and Disney shows like Dora, Diego, and Hanna Montana from Netflix via streaming and in the regular mail format. Works great. I get all the movies I want and all the TV I have time for. The only thing missing from the equation is ESPN360 (which is actually available for free via a ton of ISPs but mine isn't one of them) and a few other Home and Garden or Discovery shows. But even most of those shows are showing up on Netflix or Amazon. I have an Ooma VOIP phone which I absolutely love so the only bills I have is $20 to Netflix (3 movies plus Blu-ray) and my $50 high speed internet (Premium which is 10mb down 1mb up.) Each of the systems are easy to maintain, most of the software was free, and I am pretty much legal as fair as fair use goes. My kids now decide what movie to watch based on the metadata and I just store all the originals in a box in a closet.

[frankv]

I used to have cable but got sick of paying the bill.

Yeah, tell me about it (mine's $200 now and that's without movies). I like the idea of ditching it alltogether (for TV, still need high-speed internet), but until they have HGTV and soccer channels like FSC and GolTV, that's not gonna fly.

This Acer allows you to stream in full HD up to 1080p running on 2GB of memory? It doesn't even have a dedicated graphics cards, correct? That's quite impressive - Dell has a couple of similar machines (Inspiron series) that look inspiring ;) .

Thanks for the detailed explanation of your setup.

[BDA123]

Ya, but it is only a matter of time before you can pickup the content via subscription. The Acer Revo I have is streaming 1080p to a 720p TV. It has an integrated Nvidia 9400 GPU which does the job. However, the Atom 230 is a little slow. If I were to do it again I would buy the Atom 330 version which is the Acer Revo 3610. It comes with Windows 7, more memory, wireless keyboard and mouse, wireless N, as well as the dual core Atom chip. It is only a little better on video but a lot better with W7MC transitions, websurfing, etc. I have 4gb in most of my machines but I know the memory utilization during 1080 playback is rarely over 1.4gb so you don't need more then two to do the job. The Dell Zino is a fun little addition to the arena. But you have to upgrade the processor to the dual core and upgrade the GPU to the 4330 to really be able to do Blu-ray. You can even get it with a blu-ray drive. Its a fun little computer.

[Beerstalker]

Just ran across this product, which some people here will probably find interesting, even though it is a bit expensive.

Just one more step toward integrating HTPCs with TVs easily.

http://www.piixl.com/discover-the-edgecenter-3770/design.html

[BDA123]

A bit expensive! You are funny. Thats about $4300. All the computers, software, tvs, and recievers I have didn't cost that much. Why would I buy it when I can get a Acer Revo 3610 with a VESA mount for about 1/10 the price. At that price they have little to no market to sell that to. It amazes me that so many companies develop products prior to doing their market research. Serious "Field of Dreams" mistake.

[Beerstalker]

Like I said I knew it was a bit expensive, but remember it's in Europe and electronics are usually quite a bit more expensive over there. I'm just pointing out that this company definitely thinks there is a market out there for something like this, otherwise they wouldn't be building it. If this product sells well, other companies will start producing similar products and the price will go down.

I could only imagine how well something like this would sell if it had built in Tru-2-Way tuners or a similar device for D* or E* (sadly I've recently heard the E* has shelved their computer based tuner as well).

[Doug Brott]

(sadly I've recently heard the E* has shelved their computer based tuner as well).

This should probably tell you something ...

[smiddy]

(sadly I've recently heard the E* has shelved their computer based tuner as well).

This should probably tell you something ...
It goes back to what you said in the begining of this thread, nitch market. HTPCs have not taken off as some had anticipated. Even thought the majority of the new hardware supports the ability for computers to connect to TVs or PCs to display TV content, the paradigm is a PC is used for PC stuff, word processing, email, surfing the internet, etcetera. TVs are used for viewing and listening to video/audio content and is seemless. PCs haven't until recently been as seemless to provide TV content. The combination of all these things probably made the trade study on the "if we should go forward" choice a lot easier to make, to kill it off.

[BDA123]

I have been in sales for 25 years and I know what a niche product is. Niche implies that the demand for your product is religated to a niche of consumers. TV and online media content is not niche. The demand is not niche. What is really comes down to is that if you have a product that supplies the features necessary to meet the required demand you have sales. Everything else is a matter of price. What is currently happening is that in the past your products didn't meet the need of the consumer's demand. And when we finally had products a few years ago that meet the demand and truely created a supply/demand curve they were priced so high that the number of units sold was low. However, the increase in products has significantly pushed the supply curve to the right. Demand is not changing much because the demand has always existed. The supply curve shifting to the right if forcing the price down and essentially increasing demand or more correctly increasing the number of items sold. If you could produce these HTPC computers for $1 and sell them for $2 with an unlimited quantity supplied you would sell millions. The demand isn't the problem. The supply is the problem. Economics 101 guys. The fact that you can now get a computer that will do the job for $300 that used to take $1200 would essentially increase demand and sales four fold. Problem is that supply is not linear and demand is not linear. Demand will actually increase exponentially and supply will decrease exponentially. But this assumes that there is only one supplier of this type of product. In fact, there are probably 10 different manufacturers whos products have hit or are hitting the market in the next few months. Thus again pushing the supply curve to the right and increasing demand exponentially. If you think this product is niche you really don't understand the economics behind the market.

[gregjones]

I have been in sales for 25 years and I know what a niche product is. Niche implies that the demand for your product is religated to a niche of consumers. TV and online media content is not niche. The demand is not niche. What is really comes down to is that if you have a product that supplies the features necessary to meet the required demand you have sales. Everything else is a matter of price. What is currently happening is that in the past your products didn't meet the need of the consumer's demand. And when we finally had products a few years ago that meet the demand and truely created a supply/demand curve they were priced so high that the number of units sold was low. However, the increase in products has significantly pushed the supply curve to the right. Demand is not changing much because the demand has always existed. The supply curve shifting to the right if forcing the price down and essentially increasing demand or more correctly increasing the number of items sold. If you could produce these HTPC computers for $1 and sell them for $2 with an unlimited quantity supplied you would sell millions. The demand isn't the problem. The supply is the problem. Economics 101 guys. The fact that you can now get a computer that will do the job for $300 that used to take $1200 would essentially increase demand and sales four fold. Problem is that supply is not linear and demand is not linear. Demand will actually increase exponentially and supply will decrease exponentially. But this assumes that there is only one supplier of this type of product. In fact, there are probably 10 different manufacturers whos products have hit or are hitting the market in the next few months. Thus again pushing the supply curve to the right and increasing demand exponentially. If you think this product is niche you really don't understand the economics behind the market.

The fact that only a handful of people would argue that it is not a niche product reinforces the supposition that it is one. Again, I have an HTPC (with terabytes of content) and even I cannot be convinced that this is not a niche product. HTPC is popular with some folks, but the market for this product is far smaller than HTPC users even.

[BDA123]

I guess we shall see over the next 3 to 5 years. The thing is that most people want a HTPC that is simple, reliable, small, quiet, and cheap. I think the netbook market is a good example of how nettop sales will likely change over the next couple years. Netbooks will sell about 22 million this year. That is about 1/8 of all the units sold worldwide. Government and business buys about half of the units sold. So, currently 1 in every four consumer computers sold is a netbook. Why? Because they are simple, small, quiet, and most of all cheap. They make a great second or third computer is developed countries and first computers in underdeveloped countries. Nettops fit a similar market in the desktop arena. Most of the netbooks sold in the next couple of years will either have a Nvidia GPU or Intel GPU capable of HD video and will come with Windows 7. Same goes for Nettops. From the data I have seen Netbooks/Ultra Portable Laptops and Nettops will comprise about 50% of the consumer market within the next 3 years. And this doesn't even take into account all of the tablets, phones, mp3 players, and digital video players that will be running on snapdragon ARM and tegra ARM configurations which is fully capable of 720 output. Why do you think every manufacturer is coming out with one or more models? That means there is will be 40 million+ units capable of doing HTPC functions hitting the market annually. Do you really think most people are just going to ignore the functions? If you do you are just fooling yourself. Its not a matter of if, it is a matter of when. Take a look at CES here in a few weeks and tell me if you don't see the signs.

[Doug Brott]

I guess we shall see over the next 3 to 5 years. The thing is that most people want a HTPC that is simple, reliable, small, quiet, and cheap.

This is where you and I have a fundamental disagreement .. I think most people just want the cable (or DIRECTV) guy to come out to put a box in so that they can watch TV - end of story. With the analog OTA being shutdown, there may end up being a shift back to OTA for a large number of folks because the price is right (100% free). Will that shift drive HTPC sales? Maybe, but it's more likely to drive a Dumb recorder sales or a slightly less than dumb recorder sales. $300 is still not cheap to some people - Cheap is free - anything that requires "work" is just gonna take a bit longer to penetrate that broader market.

[BDA123]

I don't know about fundamentally different. You are very correct and there is a large percentage of Americans that are exactly as you describe. Until HTPCs are so cheap and so simple they will never use them. Those are the same people who check their email once a week if they even have a computer. They most likely don't own an Iphone and will wait until everyone else has one before they get one. Its not a bad thing. Sometimes I should be much less connected. It just is what it is. That being said I think the HTPC market is much larger than you estimate. There is a large percentage of sub-35 year olds (of which I am not a part) that would snap up the technology very quickly.

[ToddD]

(sadly I've recently heard the E* has shelved their computer based tuner as well).

Unless you have some new info I'd say that we do not know that this is true as of yet. What has been known is that they completed their beta testing program and asked for all of the equipment to be returned (standard policy with Microsoft MC testing). They as far as I have been able to learn, have not as of yet made any comment beyond that.

One interesting note was that their testing did not use a separate box as was what DirecTV was doing, They used a standard HD receiver with a special software load and sent the stream out of the ethernet port to the MC. Sorta like a Satellite based HD Home Run.

What future does MC have?

Two developments from Microsoft will determine if there is any future for the MC platform as a more mainstream platform.

Firstly, will there be new MC extenders. The Vista era extenders have gone End of Life. Will we see new ones as part of the Windows 7 era? That is one thing I'll be watching CES for.

The second is the version 2 release of Windows Home Server. If some of the published reports are true, we may see a platform that might move this concept much more mainstream.

I have been working with MC both as hobby and as a product designer back to it's earliest days. I can tell you that over time more and more of the issues that have kept it from becoming a more widely accepted product have been addressed. The two largest are that most people do not have a home network- that is being resolved by wireless, MOCA and powerline. The other is that people do not want a PC in the TV area. Now many TV's have in effect a MC extender class computer built in to them.

We are moving over time to a TV world that is based on IP data. As we do so, more and more, a computing approach will take hold. It will not be 10 more years, but it will not be 1 or 2. I'd say less than 5.

[ToddD]

. There is a large percentage of sub-35 year olds (of which I am not a part) that would snap up the technology very quickly.

I also am not of such age group,but have been amazed by what they are doing. This a group who have grown up with the internet. They know how to use it fully. The number of them that have devised ways to stream content from Hulu, the network web sites, downloading (many times illegally) shows, netfilx, itunes and so on is just wild. The goal for most all of this for them is to remove cost. They are cutting their cable in record numbers. Many believe that this is the real reason for the Comcast NBC deal (from Comcast's side).

All of this is in effect a HTPC model. So to say that they would snap up this tech is somewhat out of date....They are doing so.

[Barry in Conyers]

In this thread, the cognoscenti have bashed the HDPC-20 as being unneeded, unwanted and flawed from the beginning. It is interesting to go back a couple of years and read what the same people said when the HDPC-20 was introduced.

[CJTE]

All of this is in effect a HTPC model. So to say that they would snap up this tech is somewhat out of date....They are doing so.

To a point. I can't speak much for the east coast, but on the west, while that crowd is definitely interested in cheap (read: free) content, they aren't all as technically sound as it looks. Apple developed the iPod. "They" exploded on it (they referring to the crowd), Apple developed the iPhone, once again, they exploded on it. Some amongst the crowd put the iPhone through many trials and tests before 'breaking' it. But even after it was broken, very few of the crowd would dare touch it until a shiny almost stupid-proof interface was built with step by step instructions. (Using 'jailbreaking' the iPhone as an example, not condoning the practice).

The 'Rich' among the crowd have Home Theater PCs because they paid best buy to install it and show them what buttons to push. The 'Geeky' among the crowd have Home Theater PCs because they built them. The rest have "Media Center Extenders" (which may be microsofts TM'd name for it but you get where I'm going), and I'd be willing to wager a larger percentage of the market share uses the PlayStation 3, for example, more to play DVDs and Blu-Rays rather than stream content from the PC.
XBox as well. (I don't know what the Wii's capabilities are but based on my extremely limited use I doubt it has this sort of feature).

Even with the technology right in front of them, it doesn't necessarily mean "they" are interested in it.

[gregjones]

In this thread, the cognoscenti have bashed the HDPC-20 as being unneeded, unwanted and flawed from the beginning. It is interesting to go back a couple of years and read what the same people said when the HDPC-20 was introduced.

I have never espoused its virtues. It was always a bad idea with little to no profitable market. A lot of the people that enjoy HTPC as a hobby also don't want to deal with commercials or channel logos on HTPC content. A lot of the people that have all of the hardware running in their house right now would not use DirecTV as a source for the content because it is not a great fit with their expectations on the material.

If I want to store just a lot of content, I can do that today with an external hard drive and an HR2x. If I want content without logos and commercials, I can use an HTPC (on my choice of operating system and hardware). The point people miss is that live TV and radio represent a very small portion of content on a media server/HTPC.

I have a media server and love it. It just doesn't incorporate DirecTV content because I really am not that interested in combining the two. Content on my media server is there forever, archived for viewing/listening. Content on my DVR is there until I watch it.

[rjsimmons]

I only have one thing to add to my earlier comments.

Apple iSlate...

Lets face it guys, the content world has been seriously changed by Apple and it looks like there is more change in the wind...and that is not 3 to 5 or 5 to 10 years away.

The future is now. The only question is how can DirecTv profit from the new markets that would "like" to have access to the content they control.

[Stuart Sweet]

In this thread, the cognoscenti have bashed the HDPC-20 as being unneeded, unwanted and flawed from the beginning. It is interesting to go back a couple of years and read what the same people said when the HDPC-20 was introduced.


I don't know if I am one of those cognoscenti to which you refer... but I was enthusiastic about the HDPC-20 when it was first shown. Over time I came to see that there was less demand than I had hoped for, and that there were other factors in play as well. It's not a bad thing to have a device like this, but it just seems that the economic model for producing it wasn't there.

[P Smith]

We don't know for sure a reason for mothballing the project [second time]. By other thoughts it wasn't economic, but by pressure from content providers who are paranoid about total control.

[Doug Brott]

Economics is the line to consider .. content providers involve a number of black helicopters some of which are unmanned ...

[P Smith]

Doug, I know from personal experience how many ideas/real things come from EE labs making consumer's products and I know how companies handling expenses for those ideas ... If a company brought such product to public ( remember - second time ) it was passed positively thru marketing and accountants and VP; I'm strongly opposed that reason what vocalized many time here.

[Doug Brott]

There are things that happened that changed the dynamics .. cutting losses was the result.

[bakerfall]

There are things that happened that changed the dynamics .. cutting losses was the result.

Economics makes quite a bit more sense then pressure from networks. Cable card exists, U-Verse (mediaroom) is adding Media Center 7 capabilities. D* could have easily leveraged the same restrictions already available.

Personally, I wish D* would look into Media Room as a OS. It is remarkably better than the D* guide, and includes a lot more value add (better MRV, viewing on xbox360 and media center, etc). I would love to have those features, but am not really interested in U-Verse's HD quality and HD stream limits.

[Jeremy W]

Personally, I wish D* would look into Media Room as a OS.
Mediaroom and all of it's benefits require an IPTV system. It would not work for DirecTV.

[bakerfall]

Mediaroom and all of it's benefits require an IPTV system. It would not work for DirecTV.

Yea, I know. I'm just saying it's too bad DirecTV couldn't use something similar.

[P Smith]

I think there was something what at M$ end did not satisfied content providers [MPAA].

[Beerstalker]

I can't believe this would be because of the MPAA not liking something that Microsoft is doing. They didn't fight too much when the first Cable Card tuners came out and those had to be installed by the manufacturer and pass CableLab certification. Now they've even allowed tuner cards to be sold to the end user to install themselves as long as the computer meets certain requirements. To me that says the MPAA and cable companies believe that Microsofts content protection is pretty solid.

Now if there was an issue between D* and Microsoft, I may be willing to believe that.

[P Smith]

There are MANY programs what perfectly working with many sat-tuner PC cards (PCI/USB/PCIe) under Windows/Linux. Don't tell me M$ cannot compete with those independent SW developers. BTW, some of them allow to use subscribed equipment to view DTV(!) [not MPEG-4] channels legally.

[Jeremy W]

Don't tell me M$ cannot compete with those independent SW developers.
Nobody ever said that.

[P Smith]

"Can you post anything that isn't negative?"

[Jeremy W]

"Can you post anything that isn't negative?"
Still waiting for an answer...

[P Smith]

Search for my posts, perhaps you'll see some D10/D11 spectrogram, a fan mod of 622/722, etc

[Stuart Sweet]

Last chance... personally I think this thread has run its course, but please feel free to prove me wrong if you can. If it's just idle chat, I'll close it.

[Beerstalker]

Don't tell me M$ cannot compete with those independent SW developers.

I'm not sure if you were aiming this at me, but I definitely do not think this is the case. I'm sure Microsoft would have been able to make it work.

I'm just wondering if it isn't something like 2 marketing execs got in a pissing match and the whole thing got cancelled over bruised egos? I've seen this happen before at my old job (it was 2 different construction equiment manufacturers but the same thing can happen in any industry).

[P Smith]

Just venting alone ... Your post just triggered it :).

[harsh]

Apple iSlate...Yeah, and the Soviets invented the toaster back in the early 1980s (I heard the Radio Moscow broadcast myself). Tablet computing pretty much came and went with a wimper long before Apple leaked the iSlate.

No, I don't consider the Newton a tablet computer. It was good try at a PDA but was buried by the Palm Pilot (and reportedly some bulldozers at a California landfill).

[P Smith]

No, they keep them in Tech Museum near 101. ;)

[CJTE]

It'd be great if DirecTV revisits the HDPC but it doesnt look thats gonna happen soon :(

[wavemaster]

In this thread, the cognoscenti have bashed the HDPC-20 as being unneeded, unwanted and flawed from the beginning. It is interesting to go back a couple of years and read what the same people said when the HDPC-20 was introduced.

AMEN - Of course then it was D telling them it would be good for them. - Now that it has been tabled the same cheerleaders will tell you you no longer need it.

[wavemaster]

The point everyone seems to miss is this isn't just the 250.00 or 500.00 for the device that DTV will lose (Don't let that define the market).

The minute I can do this with HD quality and a comprehensive amount of content - I am gone!

So it is more like $2,000.00/yr from my house alone.

You ever notice how the grocery store will lose money on items week in and week out to get your "whole order". Give the beer away at cost because doritos and chips are on a 40% margin... It's called a loss leader in retail. Niche or not, having it will be worth millions, not having it will cost millions.

[Doug Brott]

Niche or not, having it will be worth millions, not having it will cost millions.

Not today it won't .. I think DIRECTV still has plenty of time to make a decision on this market. As it is we're discussing a decision that was made some time ago. If the market becomes interesting again, I'm sure DIRECTV will look for ways to take advantage.

[gregjones]

The point everyone seems to miss is this isn't just the 250.00 or 500.00 for the device that DTV will lose (Don't let that define the market).

The minute I can do this with HD quality and a comprehensive amount of content - I am gone!

So it is more like $2,000.00/yr from my house alone.

You ever notice how the grocery store will lose money on items week in and week out to get your "whole order". Give the beer away at cost because doritos and chips are on a 40% margin... It's called a loss leader in retail. Niche or not, having it will be worth millions, not having it will cost millions.


What you are missing is that the scenario above only works because beer is popular. As Doug and I have noted over and over, it takes a lot of households to offset the expense of supporting this kind of device. At this point, a number of customers are having a hard time correctly connecting the HR2x to a network. The HDPC is orders of magnitude more complex. DirecTV can't put a disclaimer saying "you must be at least this competent to purchase this device."

[briancav]

I'm also in the camp of jumping ship as soon as I can get all of my HD TV conent into my HTPCs. I've been using XP MCE for 5 years to access all of my DVDs, music, home movies, and photos. It drives me crazy that I've never been able to integrate the TV.

Now that you are able to purchase cablecard tuners and use them in home-built PCs, I will be most like going to FIOS.

There are two exciting cablecard tuners that were shown at CES that should be available relatively shortly, a Ceton 4-tuner device and a SiliconDust 2-tuner device that is networked. The Ceton device is supposed to be out by 3/31/10. Once that is successfully in the market, I'll be rebuiling 4 HTPCs with Windows 7 and giving FIOS a try.

It'll be nice to tell them that I don't need any of their boxes, I'll just need one (maybe 2) cablecards.

[wavemaster]

I'm also in the camp of jumping ship as soon as I can get all of my HD TV conent into my HTPCs. I've been using XP MCE for 5 years to access all of my DVDs, music, home movies, and photos. It drives me crazy that I've never been able to integrate the TV.

Now that you are able to purchase cablecard tuners and use them in home-built PCs, I will be most like going to FIOS.

There are two exciting cablecard tuners that were shown at CES that should be available relatively shortly, a Ceton 4-tuner device and a SiliconDust 2-tuner device that is networked. The Ceton device is supposed to be out by 3/31/10. Once that is successfully in the market, I'll be rebuiling 4 HTPCs with Windows 7 and giving FIOS a try.

It'll be nice to tell them that I don't need any of their boxes, I'll just need one (maybe 2) cablecards.

This is exciting news. We have digital cable as well as D. It will be nice to only have one again.

[Tom Robertson]

AMEN - Of course then it was D telling them it would be good for them. - Now that it has been tabled the same cheerleaders will tell you you no longer need it.

Can I be a bit of both? I think the HDPC-20 would be cool. Might be fun to have one.

Yet I also understand the business logic behind "it has to pay for itself". If it can't do that, then sadly it had to go.

Now, if someday they could get the cost below $25 and sell it for $50, then who knows, it might come back. Even then, one would have to consider an extra fee to keep it viable supportwise. As always it is a numbers game--with dollars as the key number.

Cheers,
Tom

[Tom Robertson]

The point everyone seems to miss is this isn't just the 250.00 or 500.00 for the device that DTV will lose (Don't let that define the market).

The minute I can do this with HD quality and a comprehensive amount of content - I am gone!

So it is more like $2,000.00/yr from my house alone.

You ever notice how the grocery store will lose money on items week in and week out to get your "whole order". Give the beer away at cost because doritos and chips are on a 40% margin... It's called a loss leader in retail. Niche or not, having it will be worth millions, not having it will cost millions.
I'm sure DIRECTV has very carefully quantified every aspect, including yours.

Retail rotates their lost leaders, to convince customers they are the place to shop. DIRECTV can't rotate their lost leaders in the same way. And HDPC is not a lost leader item. Not enough people would jump on it.

Cheers,
Tom

[wavemaster]

Can I be a bit of both? I think the HDPC-20 would be cool. Might be fun to have one.

Yet I also understand the business logic behind "it has to pay for itself". If it can't do that, then sadly it had to go.

Now, if someday they could get the cost below $25 and sell it for $50, then who knows, it might come back. Even then, one would have to consider an extra fee to keep it viable supportwise. As always it is a numbers game--with dollars as the key number.

Cheers,
Tom

That's some funny stuff there.

"it has to pay for itself"? That is the only reason stopping them?

If that were the case D would NEVER have been created, lord knows it didn't "pay for itself" for years and years.

How many millions did they put into HD years ago for the 10 of us that bought it? How long before that niche market is worth it?

What they have now is millions of subs because they invested in the technologies.

Obviously I wish they would think long term like they used to and not by the bottom line minute like they do now.

And again, the first provider to embrace the technology will gain at least one more sub ;-)

[Tom Robertson]

That's some funny stuff there.

"it has to pay for itself"? That is the only reason stopping them?

If that were the case D would NEVER have been created, lord knows it didn't "pay for itself" for years and years.

How many millions did they put into HD years ago for the 10 of us that bought it? How long before that niche market is worth it?

What they have now is millions of subs because they invested in the technologies.

Obviously I wish they would think long term like they used to and not by the bottom line minute like they do now.

And again, the first provider to embrace the technology will gain at least one more sub ;-)

Ah, yet DIRECTV has paid for itself. And HD has too. We all knew HD would pay for itself or at least be a market requirement. Seems disingenuous to think the HDPC has a similar market size as HD or PayTV. :)

Cheers,
Tom

[Jeremy W]

Seems disingenuous to think the HDPC has a similar market size as HD or PayTV.
A CableCARD-based tuner like the new HD HomeRun has essentially the same market as the HDPC-20 would have had, but it's actually coming out along with other CableCARD tuners. So the cancellation of the HDPC-20 is 100% opposite of what the competition is doing.

[Tom Robertson]

A CableCARD-based tuner like the new HD HomeRun has essentially the same market as the HDPC-20 would have had, but it's actually coming out along with other CableCARD tuners. So the cancellation of the HDPC-20 is 100% opposite of what the competition is doing.

Cablecard has a market of 70M. DIRECTV is only 20M.

QAM tuners are cheap. Sat. Tuners aren't.

Cheers,
Tom

[P Smith]

"QAM tuners are cheap. Sat. Tuners aren't" - Not that fast, actually practically same if you exactly mean "tuner". Often using same/similar chips.

[Jeremy W]

Cablecard has a market of 70M. DIRECTV is only 20M.
Those are subscriber numbers. You have to take into account the fact that this technology will attract people to services that support it, and that the majority of subscribers will never take advantage.
QAM tuners are cheap. Sat. Tuners aren't.
So the SatelliteCARD tuner is more expensive. I'm sure the market can deal with that.

[Tom Robertson]

When DIRECTV has 70M subs they can realistically generate enough sales to make HDCP-20 viable. :)

[Jeremy W]

When DIRECTV has 70M subs they can realistically generate enough sales to make HDCP-20 viable. :)
Come on Tom, that's simply ridiculous. In reality, the HDPC-20 is not terribly more complex than any other receiver. IIRC, you can buy an H2x for $200, and DirecTV is making a profit on that. Price the HDPC-20 at $300-$400, and it'll sell. It won't sell as much, which means economies of scale will be less, but that's why the price is higher.

If you assume that the nation has 70M cable subs, which sounds about right, the CableCARD adoption rate is about .5%. With DirecTV's 20M subs, and an adoption rate of .5% (which I believe is low, since satellite subscribers tend to be more invested in the service) you've got 100,000 sales. At $400, you've just generated $40M in revenue.

The numbers simply don't add up. I believe the HDPC-20 was cancelled for some other reason which we're unlikely to ever find out.

[Tom Robertson]

Come on Tom, that's simply ridiculous. In reality, the HDPC-20 is not terribly more complex than any other receiver. IIRC, you can buy an H2x for $200, and DirecTV is making a profit on that. Price the HDPC-20 at $300-$400, and it'll sell. It won't sell as much, which means economies of scale will be less, but that's why the price is higher.

If you assume that the nation has 70M cable subs, which sounds about right, the CableCARD adoption rate is about .5%. With DirecTV's 20M subs, and an adoption rate of .5% (which I believe is low, since satellite subscribers tend to be more invested in the service) you've got 100,000 sales. At $400, you've just generated $40M in revenue.

The numbers simply don't add up. I believe the HDPC-20 was cancelled for some other reason which we're unlikely to ever find out.
I ain't the finance nor marketing guy. You've made numbers sound good, yet reality isn't always that good.

Cheers,
Tom

[P Smith]

If I would a mod I would be more positive and more often support our member not that companies' decisions. :p Perhaps I'm totally independent from them, hehe.

[Tom Robertson]

If I would a mod I would be more positive and more often support our member not that companies' decisions. :p Perhaps I'm totally independent from them, hehe.

Nah, I think for myself...

[Jeremy W]

I ain't the finance nor marketing guy. You've made numbers sound good, yet reality isn't always that good.
We know that there were working models that got as far as private beta testing. In order for it to get that far, DirecTV certainly did their research and ran some numbers. The numbers didn't suddenly change one day, causing DirecTV to cancel the project and never speak of it again. Something else had to have happened. I've got my own theories as to what that was, but I simply cannot believe that it was a decision that was purely internal to DirecTV.

[Doug Brott]

The numbers simply don't add up. I believe the HDPC-20 was cancelled for some other reason which we're unlikely to ever find out.

Let's just say there's at least one poster in this very thread that makes a lot of sense ...

[harsh]

Something else had to have happened.I think it more likely that it was because something didn't happen. Something like support from Microsoft in their August 2008 WMC software update for example.

http://www.dbstalk.com/showpost.php?p=1914292&postcount=242

[Doug Brott]

Yup .. That pretty much sums it up.

[Beerstalker]

OK, so that explains why they may have shelved it for a while. But now Windows 7 is out. The Media Center in it is getting great reviews from everyone that I have seen talk about it, and a lot of people are upgrading to it. The Cable Card tuner manufacturers seem to really be embracing it. So shouldn't they be thinking about bringing this back to life and working on it so they can be sure to be added with the next Windows 7 update?

Or are you hinting that Microsoft may have burned some bridges by not including D* in the last update so now they don't want to work with them anymore?

[Doug Brott]

There are a lot of factors .. DIRECTV may reenter the market at some point, but I certainly haven't heard of anything forthcoming.

[Tom Robertson]

Another thing that happened was DIRECTV2PC. While it doesn't answer all of the HDPC market, it does erode it somewhat.

Cheers,
Tom

[Beerstalker]

DirecTV2PC is a nice start, but it really isn't the answer to what is needed. People want to be able to watch their satellite/cable channels and recordings on portable devices like a Zune, iPod, iPhone, Archos, etc. Right now the only real way to do that is pay for the content and download it. Why should they have to pay for it when they have already paid to get it from their cable/satellite provider. Media Center integration could make this much easier, cheaper, and still keep copy protection in place.

[P Smith]

Because as soon you'll download it to your storage, content provider will lost its control ( or fear of that which is more killing factor of such devices).

[Jeremy W]

Because as soon you'll download it to your storage, content provider will lost its control ( or fear of that which is more killing factor of such devices).
Content providers are fine with CableCARD, which does the same thing, so this theory holds no water.

[gregjones]

DirecTV2PC is a nice start, but it really isn't the answer to what is needed. People want to be able to watch their satellite/cable channels and recordings on portable devices like a Zune, iPod, iPhone, Archos, etc. Right now the only real way to do that is pay for the content and download it. Why should they have to pay for it when they have already paid to get it from their cable/satellite provider. Media Center integration could make this much easier, cheaper, and still keep copy protection in place.

And then there is single vendor lock-in with Microsoft when the really pioneering work being done in HTPCs is not their software. Right now, DRM means picking a single vendor (Apple) or a single operating system (MS). Non-DRM content is not going to move forward without DirecTV's contracted content providers threatening to play hardball. When DRM and non-DRM both are a no-go, you find another way--a streaming and not-storing-it-on-the-hard-drive way. A way like the solution given to us after HDPC was canned...

[Jeremy W]

And then there is single vendor lock-in with Microsoft
CableCARD has no problem with that.
when the really pioneering work being done in HTPCs is not their software.
Like what?

[Beerstalker]

Content providers are fine with CableCARD, which does the same thing, so this theory holds no water.

Exactly, the content providers can set the Protection flag or whatever it is called if they are asked to do so by the content owner. I beleive that HBO, Showtime, etc do this currently on their shows. I believe they can set the content flag to allow you to make one copy, or no copies at all.

I don't understand how they can't do something like embed the Windows product ID number into each video file that is recorded on that computer. That way if that file ends up on the net they know exactly which computer it came from and they can go after that person. If you only use that recording on your own devices, or burn a copy for personal backup then there are no issues.

[Jeremy W]

I don't understand how they can't do something like embed the Windows product ID number into each video file that is recorded on that computer. That way if that file ends up on the net they know exactly which computer it came from and they can go after that person.
They could do that, but it would be a waste of time. Nobody posts DRMed files on the Internet. Everything that gets posted is DRM free and scrubbed of any personal information that may have been attached.

[Beerstalker]

Yeah but at least then DirecTV/Comcast/Microsoft/etc. could say that the content wasn't getting there because of them.

[Albie]

Come on Tom, that's simply ridiculous. In reality, the HDPC-20 is not terribly more complex than any other receiver. IIRC, you can buy an H2x for $200, and DirecTV is making a profit on that. Price the HDPC-20 at $300-$400, and it'll sell. It won't sell as much, which means economies of scale will be less, but that's why the price is higher.

If you assume that the nation has 70M cable subs, which sounds about right, the CableCARD adoption rate is about .5%. With DirecTV's 20M subs, and an adoption rate of .5% (which I believe is low, since satellite subscribers tend to be more invested in the service) you've got 100,000 sales. At $400, you've just generated $40M in revenue.

The numbers simply don't add up. I believe the HDPC-20 was cancelled for some other reason which we're unlikely to ever find out.

Yet at even 100% Gross Profit how quickly does a company go through $20 million in support, distribution, advertising, overhead etc., especially at a company the size of DirecTV?

That being said I still think there is also a politically(for lack of better term) motivated side to this as well.

[Tom Robertson]

Yet at even 100% Gross Profit how quickly does a company go through $20 million in support, distribution, advertising, overhead etc., especially at a company the size of DirecTV?

That being said I still think there is also a politically(for lack of better term) motivated side to this as well.

It seems to me that all marketing is predicated on beliefs and motivations. They start the whole chain of "wonder if this would sell?", "wonder if we could make money?", "let's check the marketplace?", etc. If an internal champion moves on or is convinced another solution is better (such as DLNA support), then the will to start or continue a project (especially one that is lagging repeatedly), withers.

And this gives me the thought that DIRECTV's answer lies in part with DIRECTV2PC and more fully in DLNA support. Then the solution is not "just" a Microsoft vs. Apple vs. Linux decision. And opens the door for someone else to support all those clients rather than DIRECTV.

Thinking out loud,
Tom

[wavemaster]

Here I am just wanting to integrate D* into my media center and CONTINUE paying them for the service.

If D* keeps dragging their feet, more and more users could just quietly go away.

It's really good to see so many others out there (http://www.dbstalk.com/showthread.php?t=171249) with MC's for their content. Once you get all your media archived on your PC or fileserver it just makes sense. http://www.dbstalk.com/showthread.php?t=171249

[HTPCGuy]

Here I am just wanting to integrate D* into my media center and CONTINUE paying them for the service.

If D* keeps dragging their feet, more and more users could just quietly go away.

It's really good to see so many others out there with MC's for their content. Once you get all your media archived on your PC or fileserver it just makes sense.

I am in the same boat. 90% of what I watch I get over the air or from Netflix Watch Now, or can now get through Hulu on my HTPC. I am ready to purchase a new TV and second HTPC box. When I do that I will be dropping the attached satellite receiver from that TV and will be down to a single satellite box. If one of the two providers cannot get a HTPC tuner in the next few months I will be dropping the service.

[Jeremy W]

If one of the two providers cannot get a HTPC tuner in the next few months I will be dropping the service.
Might as well just drop it now, because nothing is happening in the next few months.

[Stuart Sweet]

In this case I completely agree with Jeremy W. Folks, you can look back and decide whatever you want as far as what "really" happened. The bottom line is, the project is dead, dead like Jimmy Hoffa, dead, it's not coming back. I quote Mr Cleese:

He's not pinin'! He's passed on! This parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! He's expired and gone to meet his maker! He's a stiff! Bereft of life, he rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed him to the perch he'd be pushing up the daisies! His metabolic processes are now history! He's off the twig! He's kicked the bucket, he's shuffled off his mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-PARROT!!

npjOSLCR2hE

Do feel free to resurrect this thread now and again if it offers comfort, but I simply say, and not meaning to be rude or disrespectful... the HDPC-20 is not coming back.

If, at some time in the future, there is another WMC-compatible device, it will not be the HDPC-20.

[JeffBowser]

This happened to me some years ago. We once had some OS/2 software. It commanded all of 10 small customers, so after 8 years, we pulled the plug. Those 10 customers become the most vocal pack of jackals ever, and would NOT leave us alone. Got to the point where their threats and rantings reminded me of a nut house. Some people just can't let go, and fail to understand job costings and business decisions.