View Full Version : Last Days of Tivo?
johnsbin
07-29-03, 01:53 PM
This is from the August edition of Business 2.0 and I thought it would be pertinent to discussion in this forum.
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The Last Days of TiVo? The personal video recorder pioneer has a zealous, if small, customer base, and its technology, which lets people digitally record TV shows and fast-forward through commercials, still has the potential to reshape the economics of the entire television industry. But TiVo lost $82 million on sales of $96 million last year. A buyout by a deep-pocketed player is "a real possibility," says a West Coast banker. The deal would probably cost at least $1 billion, and there's a risk that a copycat technology could come along and crush TiVo's. That said, here's a look at five possible purchasers and why they'd be interested.
THE BUYER: Philips
THE PAYOFF: It manufactures TiVo boxes and is an investor in the company. If TiVo becomes a mass-market phenomenon, it makes more sense to own than to license.
THE BUYER: Comcast
THE PAYOFF: Comcast, also a TiVo investor, could incorporate the technology into its cable set-top boxes and offer its 21 million subscribers a reason not to flee to satellite.
THE BUYER: News Corp.
THE PAYOFF: Rupert Murdoch's pending purchase of DirecTV will give him a taste of TiVo; DirecTV already bundles TiVo with some set-top boxes, and DirecTV execs are big believers in TiVo as a competitive edge over its cable rivals.
THE BUYER: Apple
THE PAYOFF: Apple's digital hub strategy lacks a compelling way to connect to the TV, where most consumers still go to get their entertainment. TiVo solves that problem.
THE BUYER: Sony
THE PAYOFF: Like Philips, Sony is an investor and makes TiVo boxes. Why not capture TiVo's subscription fees and software margins as well?
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It seems to me DirecTV would want to grab it before letting the others get it but who knows.
Without any standalone market competition, Dish and DirecTV PVRs/DVRs may take a different direction. I have started to hear radio ads from Cable companies offering some kind of DVR capability.
What do you all think?
(Here is the online link - the blurb is at the bottom of the page -
http://www.business2.com/subscribers/articles/mag/0,1640,50847|10,00.html )
Randy_B
07-29-03, 04:26 PM
Business 2.0 has had a couple of pieces kinda advocating Apple buy to Tivo. That would be great if they did. Jobs definietly thinks outside of the box.
Tivo is not going away as a brand or a product or if it did, it would be the biggest marketing blunder of the century. It's value is in being used by as many manufacturers as possible. Tivo as a brand is as interchangeable with PVR's as Kleenex is to tissues or Coke is to Carbonated soda.
If someone buys Tivo, then they must do two things:
1) Keep pushing Tivo as a brand/service/set of features. When people think of PVR's they should use Tivo.
2) Make sure the licensing model for software is such that it's cost prohibitive for consumer electronics manufacturers to build their own software. It makes me wonder, how much does dish spend on it's proprietary software development?
3) If the subscription fee model is continued, then subscriptions should be split with the CE maker. This may be happening now.
It's these two things that could allow Tivo to become one of the biggest brands in the world.
If someone buys Tivo, then they must do two things:
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It's these two things.
oops, i mean three things. sorry for the miss type.
One more thought... What about Microsoft?? They discontinued Ultimate TV... If they couldn't beat them, why not join them? Or in this case, swallow them whole. It makes sense to me.
Microsoft can use the UltimateTV as the operating system for all TV's and set top boxes with a HDD. They in effect can turn the Consumer Electronics industry into an industry modeled after the PC industry.
. Tivo as a brand is as interchangeable with PVR's as Kleenex is to tissues or Coke is to Carbonated soda.
Yeah, that is the truth!
Rather than explain to guests what a "PVR" is, it is much easier to say "I TIVO'd that." And they understand immediately.
Interesting to get Apple in the mix. I always considered one of Dish's mistakes the sole production of their PVRs. Much like Apple does with their computers. If DISH would let TIVO and others manufacture receivers for their system, there would be much greater features and more market awareness to their product. As it is now, we are completely dependent on Dish Network for manufacturing our products and one company can only support so many products.
Dish may have the most PVRs in the market now, but once the technology becomes a staple of cable company set top boxes, Dish can forget any edge it has today. IMHO.
-todd
Mark Holtz
07-29-03, 05:13 PM
Not Microsoft. Tivo is Linux-based.
The biggest blunder, IMO, was that DirecTV uses the term "DirecTV with DVR" instead of DirecTivo.
James_F
07-29-03, 05:57 PM
Not Microsoft. Tivo is Linux-based.
The biggest blunder, IMO, was that DirecTV uses the term "DirecTV with DVR" instead of DirecTivo.
Except that they don't have the DirecTV name in the title. For the average person, DirecTiVo doesn't mean a thing, but DirecTV does. :shrug:
Not Microsoft. Tivo is Linux-based. .
So give MS two generations to switch the code over to the MS code base. How difficult would be be to port over for a company of Microsoft's size? Probably a drop in the bucket. The value of Tivo is the brand and being the mind share leader in a potentially monstrous market.
The more thought i put into it, the more i'm absolutely sure Microsoft is the perfect partner for Tivo.
James_F
07-30-03, 12:49 PM
Why would microsoft need the TiVo brand? They already have the Microsoft brand. I can say with 100% certainty Microsoft would not buy TiVo because they have nothing they need.
WalterG
07-30-03, 02:23 PM
Why would microsoft need the TiVo brand? They already have the Microsoft brand. I can say with 100% certainty Microsoft would not buy TiVo because they have nothing they need.
Microsoft standard proceedure for getting into new market:
1. Blatantly steal technology.
2. If that doesn't work, tied them up in a lawsuit.
3. If that doesn't work, buy and swallow competion.
They tried #1 and failed, TiVO owns patents so #2 is out, ...
James_F
07-30-03, 04:25 PM
Well you prove you don't know a thing about Microsoft. :rolleyes:
They would have bought ReplayTV, much cheaper and no one wanted it. Why would they pay a premium for something they already have. Microsoft does not need TiVo. They already have XP Media Edition which would fit well in a box.
WalterG
07-30-03, 05:00 PM
Well you prove you don't know a thing about Microsoft. :rolleyes:
They would have bought ReplayTV, much cheaper and no one wanted it. Why would they pay a premium for something they already have. Microsoft does not need TiVo. They already have XP Media Edition which would fit well in a box.
That's cause pop culture doesn't say, "I ReplayTVed Friends last night."
I'm not saying they need the technology. The UTV worked great from what I've read, but still failed to catch on. If they really wanted to (re-)enter the PVR market, I could see them buying TiVO for the name recognition or to just to kill the competition.
They discontinued the UTV, why would they need to "kill the competition" if they are not competing?
James_F
07-30-03, 05:46 PM
That's cause pop culture doesn't say, "I ReplayTVed Friends last night."
I'm not saying they need the technology. The UTV worked great from what I've read, but still failed to catch on. If they really wanted to (re-)enter the PVR market, I could see them buying TiVO for the name recognition or to just to kill the competition.
I understand that, but the cost will be too high. They'd rather people say I want to "XP" that or something to that extent. The cost of just the TiVo name is too high for what they would get from it. I'm sure stockholders would vote no by selling stock and Bill might lose 2 billion dollars from such a deal. ;)
Bill's smart. Microsoft is smart. They want to get into the market or UltimateTV wouldn't have existed. Tivo being for sale would be a boon to microsoft especally when you consider long term.
James_F
07-30-03, 06:10 PM
OK, you people keep thinking this, just like ReplayTV going to Dish, you have no clue about this deal. TiVo is not for sale, this thread is a waste of time.
gcutler
07-30-03, 06:13 PM
They discontinued the UTV, why would they need to "kill the competition" if they are not competing?
I don't think they are NOT competing, their initial Attacks failed, they retreated but they will probably be back (Talk of X-Box option..., etc) and will desire to kill the competition eventually. But until they have a valid strategy that seems to be winning, it isn't worthwhile to destroy the competition.
OK, you people keep thinking this, just like ReplayTV going to Dish, you have no clue about this deal. TiVo is not for sale, this thread is a waste of time.
Your probably right, it won't happy. If it did I would be happy though because I have found that I like Microsoft products in my living room. The Xbox is a better product than the PS2 or the Game Cube. I'd love to see what Microsoft does with Tivo and where you would see the Tivo brand partnered with. (shame but you probably wont see it in a Sony product if Microsoft got ahold of it)
Your probably right, it won't happy. If it did I would be happy though because I have found that I like Microsoft products in my living room. The Xbox is a better product than the PS2 or the Game Cube. I'd love to see what Microsoft does with Tivo and where you would see the Tivo brand partnered with. (shame but you probably wont see it in a Sony product if Microsoft got ahold of it)
I am assuming that you all do know that Microsoft is doing trials with Mexico on set top boxes. The have a deal I believe with (2) Mexican Cable Companies for the trials of set top boxes.
Make no mistake, while I don;t really see MS buying TiVo, they definitely want to have a set top box in every living room all across the USA. They are doing it incrementally, trying different strategies to see what sticks but they really believe they have reached a plateau on computer sales and to grow and win the next round, they will have to take the fight to the living room.
James_F
07-30-03, 08:09 PM
The MS rumor is just from this forum. I have not see it anywhere else. I would assume we'd see TiVo remain "independent" for the time being because neither Philips, DirecTV or Sony would want to see it in anothers hand. I suspect we will see "investments" from Sony and Philips keeping TiVo running without the need to sell the company.
I suspect we will see "investments" from Sony and Philips keeping TiVo running without the need to sell the company.
Thats where we are in complete agreement. Particularly with Sony who sees Microsoft as one of the biggest threats to it's main profit centers.
Mike D-CO5
07-31-03, 11:36 AM
Now that would be a really funny . Why not ,doesn't Charlie have about 2 billion left over from the failed merger? Then he would have Directv customers paying him also. The benefit would be the same for old Charlie as if the merger would have went through.
Why would microsoft need the TiVo brand? They already have the Microsoft brand. I can say with 100% certainty Microsoft would not buy TiVo because they have nothing they need.
You have missed the point.
TiVo owns a market that Microsoft has essentially failed to break into in a serious way. That alone is grounds for a buyout. The question that remains is whether Microsoft flushes TiVo down the toilet to make room for their product or they slap their name on it and pretend that they invented the technology.
kstevens
07-31-03, 04:43 PM
[QUOTE=toddjb]Yeah, that is the truth!
Well, i took a causal poll at my work place today (IT department) and only 2 people that I talked to new what TIVO was out of around 60. TIVO is not a house hold name yet, and may never become one.
Ken
Jacob S
07-31-03, 04:54 PM
Perhaps the Tivo name will stick and it would just be a change of ownership of the company, not a change of name. Just like Dish saying they were going to go to the DirecTv name because they had more of a name for themselves than Dish did because of their advertising and availability in a number of retail chain stores.
kstevens, that is pretty telling. I would expect that IT would have the largest percentage of poeple likely to own a TiVo, much less just know what one was.
[
Well, i took a causal poll at my work place today (IT department) and only 2 people that I talked to new what TIVO was out of around 60.
A good comparison would be to ask a good sample of people if they know what TIVO is and ask the same group also if they know what PVR is (or DVR as it were).
Either way 2 out of 60 seems pretty low. From my experience, of those people who are familiar with the technology (video recording on a hard drive) most are more aware of calling it "TIVO" then anything else. But yes, many are still ignorant of the whole concept....58 out of 60 in your case.
-todd
I suggest that if the general public were reading this thread, they wouldn't have a clue what we are talking about. Call it Tivo, PVR, DVR or whatever, the pvr concept is either (a) the most poorly marketed product in history, or (b) the mass market just doesn't give a damn about being interactively involved in their TV viewing. That takes a little effort. (Gimme a brew or two, a bag of chips and my remote and I'm good 'til bedtime!)
gcutler
08-04-03, 05:35 PM
The numbers also relate to those who still have their VCR blinking 12:00, and never timer record. So the most likely population of potential PVR/DVR users are those people who usually record something to VHS during the week and then watch later. But I think that probably included alot of women who got their male companions to setup daily recording of their soap-operas and that has been the tech for the past 10 years... Having them even pay attention to a TiVo ad is almost impossible, extra money another issue. It will require a male in the household to slip the tech into play, without approval :)
I take that point of view because every female PVR user I know, had the hardware forced upone them by a male member of the househould. They wouldn't ever give it up NOW, but would never had thought about even considering about making the move on their own, and would have voted against it if asked (luckily there was little asking) :p
I take that point of view because every female PVR user I know, had the hardware forced upone them by a male member of the househould. They wouldn't ever give it up NOW, but would never had thought about even considering about making the move on their own, and would have voted against it if asked (luckily there was little asking) :p
I'll have to second this. My wife considered a DVR a "toy" for me. After a year and a half of using one, she would be enraged if it was taken away. :lol:
The ex (roommate) was addicted to her Dishplayer (#2) soon after I brought it home. She was a fiend on the wireless keyboard, and a whiz at searching for movies, sports and concerts. Her record list was extensive, and she hated to delete any recorded programs. But she couldn't understand why she had to limit her recordings to the remaining HDD space available. When I split, I think she would have rather had her DP stay than me, but I took all the sat gear with me (he he). I did leave her with one of my two 32" tvs and a rabbit ears. :lol:
johnsbin
08-05-03, 03:48 PM
I know it can't be true of all women but my wife was the same way and has always been that way.
She didn't know why we had to have:
1. The coffee maker
2. The microwave
3. DishNetwork
4. 19" monitor on the computer
5. The DishPVR 721
All of these items are now essential and btw why don't they do this or this?
:lol: (Stop that laughing and get busy with the compound miter-saw you said you needed - yes dear.) :rolleyes:
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