Is TIVO losing the battle to Dish?

[Tusk]

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/georgemannes/10115688.html

In a note published Thursday morning, Pacific Crest Securities analyst Jeff Goverman raised the possibility that TiVo's relationship with DirecTV -- the expected source, he says, of half of TiVo's subscribers going forward -- could go sour upon the impending takeover of DirecTV by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation. Citing a filing that News Corp. made at the Federal Communications Commission this week in anticipation of a News Corp.-Hughes merger, Goverman says News Corp.'s commitment to TiVo is "questionable." The analyst points out that News Corp.'s BSkyB European satellite service was a onetime partner of TiVo's, but then started marketing a competitive digital video recorder. Judging from News Corp.'s filing, writes Goverman, the company's past successes in the satellite business "will be a large part of the new blueprint."

With Dish surpassing 1 million in DVR users, this might throw a new wrinkle into which satellite company has the best product.

[Bob Haller]

TIVO stock crashed and burbed today oin speculation murdock would cancel the D TIVO contracts

[joe]

I dont think it matters who has the best product..just who has the cheapest!! remember beta vs vhs in the 70's

[Karl Foster]

With Dish surpassing 1 million in DVR users, this might throw a new wrinkle into which satellite company has the best product.

Has the argument over who has the best product been hashed over enough? :rolleyes:

I have a hard time believing that News Corp is just going to tell DirecTivo subscribers to cram it and have a nice day. Not a good way to retain your best customers. Any speculation that News Corp is going to cancel an existing agreement that D* has with Tivo is a bit premature.

Murdoch may be an ego-maniac, but he isn't stupid.

[Mike D-CO5]

He could just not offer any more of the directivos after the supply is gone. Any replacements could be his new line of dvrs. It wouldn't take long to run out of stock of existing supply when you consider he wants to put a dvr into the hands of all the Directv customers.

He might even cut out all the individual business contracts with other makers like sony , phillips, rca etc , in order to do everything inhouse like he does overseas. Dish does this now and is able to keep profits inhouse , now the price of the dvrs would go up of course, with no other makers contributing to the defraying of costs.

Rupert wants to make a dvr in every house his main goal . This in order to download and control what the directv customers watch. I would be very worried about what Rupert has in mind for the future of Directv.

Remember he was the one who thought hdtv was a fad not worth the extra money to upgrade to it. Fox is now going to do 50 % of his programs in hdtv NEXT FALL. After holding out for this long.

Kind of makes you wonder why most people were against old Charlie getting his hands on Directv. I can remember people having these same worries about Tivo and Charlie replacing it with Dish dvrs.

I guess time will tell....... :scratchin

[Kagato]

Problem, TIVO is a verb. I hear it four or five times a week on TV. It's very popular. If DirecTV dumps Tivo their DirecTivo customer base will revolt. Dumping Tivo means somone else is free to scoop up a brand with a huge name reconition.

Most notable, Cable companies. It's not hard to slap some basic QAM decoding stuff into a SA tivo, and with a return channel built into cable there would be no need for a modem, or for Tivo to pay for dial in access. I'm guessing Tivo could make a box for about the same as a Sci Atanta. It might cost a little more per month, but I could see them looking at it as marketing fees to have a well established brand.

[toad57]

Article on Tivo stock drop (http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech/georgemannes/10115688.html).

...But that model has already been threatened from multiple sides, most notably by direct broadcaster EchoStar (DISH:Nasdaq - commentary - research), which has started giving away non-TiVo DVRs to its satellite subscribers.

Time for Echostar to buy them? :D

[toad57]

I dont think it matters who has the best product..just who has the cheapest!! remember beta vs vhs in the 70's

Here's a recap of the βetamax (Sony) -vs- VHS (JVC) (http://www.urbanlegends.com/products/beta_vs_vhs.html) war.

[Randy_B]

If DirecTV dumps Tivo their DirecTivo customer base will revolt Where would they go? DirecTivoistas are pretty clear in the disdain if not hatred of all things Dish.

[Curtis0620]

Since TiVo is closing in on 1 million in less time than it took Dish, no they are not losing.

Besides, how many cables subs have a DishDVR?

DirecTiVos are not going anywhere, Murdoch will probably only offer a basic DishDVR type offering to supplement the TiVo receivers.

[dbronstein]

The problem Tivo is going to have is that the market for stand-alone DVRs is going to disappear within a couple of years. Dish makes their own and the cable companies are starting to roll them out. So if DirecTV starts making their own, there's nothing left for Tivo.

Dennis

[Kagato]

Tivo is too strong of a brand to just go away. The name based recording feature is also very compelling. The Cable DVRs, just like Dish Networks DVRs lack a lot of big features Tivo wants. It way too soon to tell where they are going.

[dlsnyder]

DirecTV would also have a legal problem with all of the subscribers who purchased lifetime TiVo subscriptions. Even if they didn't sell any new TiVo-capable boxes they would probably still continue to service existing subs.

[dbronstein]

DirecTV would also have a legal problem with all of the subscribers who purchased lifetime TiVo subscriptions. Even if they didn't sell any new TiVo-capable boxes they would probably still continue to service existing subs.

They could provide replacement boxes or send out a software update to change over to their new platform. There are plenty of ways around having to keep them as Tivo.

Dennis

[dbronstein]

Tivo is too strong of a brand to just go away. The name based recording feature is also very compelling. The Cable DVRs, just like Dish Networks DVRs lack a lot of big features Tivo wants. It way too soon to tell where they are going.

Most people still have no clue about DVRs, let alone the differences between different brands. It will be very hard to convince the average person that a SA Tivo is a better choice than an integrated box from their cable or satellite company.

I agree it's too soon to say that Tivo will die. But IMO unless they can keep their deal with DirecTV and make some with the cable companies, they are going to have a hard time surviving with only SA boxes.

Dennis

[Randy_B]

Since TiVo is closing in on 1 million in less time than it took Dish, no they are not losing.?Huh? Tivo came to market well before E*/MS came out with the original Dishplayer (I believe DP came out in Spring '99) (Tivo incorporated in August 1997, went to market in Summer '98) and Dish has ALREADY surpassed 1M units and Tivo won't until sometime in 2004, And that is ALL Tivos (SA and DTV). If you are alluding to DirecTivo as a hot seller only, there are only approx 350K of those out there. Dish has sold 500K units in the last 6 months alone. Perhaps you are referencing something else? I don't see that.

I agree, Tivo is not losing, it is not a question of winner/loser. From their filings, Tivo is closing in on moving into the black. So in real terms they are winning. But they may have to evolve their market strategy to be more aggressive on licensing. The new "Tivo lite" coming out in DVD recorders is a good example.

Although DirecTV could readily support DirecTivos without marketing them anymore.

[James_F]

Wait, are we talking about two different things. TiVo is in SA units, DVD Recorders, TVs, and DirecTV. Dish DVRs are in Dish receivers. Apples and oranges. If DirecTV ever dumped TiVo, I doubt TiVo would die.

[Mike D-CO5]

The total amount they were talking about for Tivo was with the stand alones and Directv tivos included. They still don't equal the amount that Dish has sold by themselves.


Hopefully Charlie will spend some of that left over money on buying Tivo. Imagine built in revenue from stand alone subs and all the partners that Tivo has now. Charlie would be in the best position of his life being able to sell licensing contracts for other companies to use Tivo software in their products; like dvrs with hard drives with Tivo lite versions.


He could also download the software to existing dvrs like the 501/508/ and 721 and give them Tivo lite versions with the ability to upgrade to the full features either through dvod fees or lifetime fees or subing to AEP to do away with them all together. All the newer receivers like the 522 and 921 would of course have the full Tivo software downloaded to them with the fees of course. The same subscription of course to AEP would keep the fees away.


This would at least give Dish customers some value for their money with the new Tivo software. This would also keep Charlie on top of the dvr business, since he passed on Replay when it was on the auction block.


Come on Charlie give it a thought. Just imagine all the ways you could make money by buying Tivo and license fees you could charge other companies who wanted to use the Tivo software. Of course you would also get ahead of old Rupert and we all know you want to win that contest. So think about it Charlie it would be one of the wisest moves you could ever make. And think no more software bug complaints from customers, well at least less than you have now. :money:

[James_F]

The fact is TiVo, can survive without DirecTV. More and more DVD recorders have TiVo built into to them. Its cheaper to license TiVo than create your own software. I doubt that DirecTV would kill TiVo off. I'm sure the deal they have from them now is skewed in DirecTV's favor.

[the_beaver]

the ONLY thing i want from tivo
software is the named-based
recording---i wouldn't want to
give up the guide browse with
current program PIP feature, EVER...
oh--ok, i wouldn't mind abit more
stability but that goes without
saying...
let us not throw the baby out
with the bath-h2o