Possible Slight Delay of AMC-15 Launch

[rocatman]

A Soyuz launch to the International Space Station has been scheduled for October 14th from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan, the same launch site as AMC-15. Here's a link:

http://spaceflightnow.com/tracking/index.html

I do not believe that the Russians can/would have two launches from the same site in one day. Since the Soyuz launch date was set after the AMC-15 launch date, I would expect it to have priority so I would expect the AMC-15 launch to slip a couple of days unless there is a hiccup in the Soyuz lunch.

In another thread the question was asked on how long after launch would AMC-15 become operational.

If you look at the news section of the SES Americom website here,

http://www.ses-americom.com/index.html

you will notice that AMC-11 was launched on 5/19/04 and completed its on-orbit testing on 7/13/04 which is about two months. Now it may take a little longer since there is typically a larger initial orbital inclination when a satellite is launched from Russia than Florida so it may take slightly longer to maneuver the satellite to its final geostationary orbit. If AMC-15 is launched within a week or so of the October 14th date, I would expect it to be operational no later than January 1, 2005. This would be about the same time that DirecTV has the NFL HD TPs freed up as the NFL season ends.

[Mickdog]

I'm begining to wonder if they will ever get it up this year! :eek2:

[Jerry G]

If AMC-15 is launched within a week or so of the October 14th date, I would expect it to be operational no later than January 1, 2005. This would be about the same time that DirecTV has the NFL HD TPs freed up as the NFL season ends.

1. Will a successful launch of AMC 15 change Charlie's definition of "compelling content" in terms of adding more HD?

2. If so, how many years will it take for Charlie to change his definition and get his PR people in action to spin his new definition of "compelling content"? Oh, I just remembered, his current definition is meaningless anyway since TNT HD violates Charlie's own definition, so he's free to interpret his definition any way he wants regardless of how he'll redefine it in future. Charlie needs to be on some anti-psychotic medication. Maybe then he'll begin to think clearly and rationally.

3. Will AMC 15 cover the entire country? With Charlie's boys in charge, who can really tell until the bird is in operation. And even then, we won't know for sure until Charlie sells some Superdishes and users begin to report back.

4. When will Charlie start to brag about Dish's 50 HD channel capacity again?

[James Long]

I don't see any problem with the Russians doing both launches "October 14th".
Soyuz Launch time: 0306:25 GMT (11:06:25 p.m. EDT on Oct. 13)
AMC-15 Launch time: 2123 GMT (5:23 p.m. EDT)

The launches are 18 hours apart. I'm not sure what time zone Baikonur is in as Kazakhstan stretches from GMT+5 to GMT+7, but considering that the Soyuz launch will be Oct 14th 8:06am local time and the AMC-15 launch will be Oct 15th 4:23am local time (if GMT+5, or 10:06am/6:23am local if GMT+7).

Hopefully Charlie will put it up on CH101 for us to watch and enjoy!

JL

[rocatman]

1. Will a successful launch of AMC 15 change Charlie's definition of "compelling content" in terms of adding more HD?

2. If so, how many years will it take for Charlie to change his definition and get his PR people in action to spin his new definition of "compelling content"? Oh, I just remembered, his current definition is meaningless anyway since TNT HD violates Charlie's own definition, so he's free to interpret his definition any way he wants regardless of how he'll redefine it in future. Charlie needs to be on some anti-psychotic medication. Maybe then he'll begin to think clearly and rationally.

3. Will AMC 15 cover the entire country? With Charlie's boys in charge, who can really tell until the bird is in operation. And even then, we won't know for sure until Charlie sells some Superdishes and users begin to report back.

4. When will Charlie start to brag about Dish's 50 HD channel capacity again?

If Dish plans to put HD on AMC-15, then when it becomes operational, Charlie's definition of compelling content will change and the change will be overnight. AMC-15 is actually owned by SES Americom and Dish is only leasing it. Here is a link to a description of it:

http://www.ses-americom.com/satellites/amc-15.html

AMC-15 will cover the entire CONUS, Hawaii and Alaska except for extreme western Alaska. The satellite at 105 W currently, AMC-2 was not design for the 105 W location and is lower powered than AMC-15. When it was moved to the 105 W location it was hoped that AMC-2 would provide adequate signal for CONUS but it didn't quite work out. AMC-15 was specifically designed for the 105 W location and is much higher powered than AMC-2. If AMC-15 works as design there is no doubt it will provide adequate coverage.

Dish will probably not have 50 HD channel capacity even if they put HD on AMC-15 and leave the HD they have at 110 unless they move a great number of locals from the 105 W location and I don't think that will happen. Without moving locals, the maximum number of HD channels they could put at 105 W with AMC-15 is about 36 and this is based on Dish not adding anymore locals to 105. What I expect Dish to do is to move most if not all of the HD channels to 105 W when AMC-15 becomes operational with the possible exception of the HD premimum movie channels since they are packaged with their corresponding SD premimum movies packages. The inconvenience to subscribers in having to add a Superdish for the 105 location will be offset by adding more HD channels. Besides for the added HD capacity at 105 W, the reason to move most HD to 105 is that Dish needs to free up another 2 TPs at 110 in order to get the maximum benefit from the spotbeams of the yet to be launched E-10 satellite. This may be one of the reasons that Dish has kept 3 HD channels/TP on 110 and left TP 19 empty after the Olympics. If Dish empties other TPs at 110 by moving HD to 105, they could start moving some of the local channels from the wings that they plan on having on spotbeams when E-10 is operational. This would be a good PR move towards the FCC related to the locals on one dish issue.

In regards to the Russians launching two vehicles in 18 hours off the same range, I believe it is highly unlikely. I don't have specific knowledge about the capabilities at the Baikonur Cosmodrome but at the U.S.'s Eastern Range i.e., Cape Canaveral Air Station/Kennedy Space Center, they would not be willing/able to turn around the Range in 18 hours based on my experience. The radar and flight tacking/termination systems need to be re-configured for each launch and an 18 hour turnaround puts a great deal of strain on personnel that leads to mistakes. Usually the quickest turnaround is about 48 hours.

[James Long]

What I expect Dish to do is to move most if not all of the HD channels to 105 W when AMC-15 becomes operational with the possible exception of the HD premimum movie channels since they are packaged with their corresponding SD premimum movies packages.I do not expect ANY HD to leave 110, especially to 105. Customers with locals on 121 would be inconvenienced the most. It's just not worth it at this time. New HD could go there, if less compelling. But nothing on 110 will move off.
The radar and flight tacking/termination systems need to be re-configured for each launch and an 18 hour turnaround puts a great deal of strain on personnel that leads to mistakes. Usually the quickest turnaround is about 48 hours.We will find out together in the next 12 days. They should give us some notice if AMC-15 is moved back. If 18hr launch separation isn't possible they shouldn't have scheduled Soyuz that closely or should have announced a delay on AMC-15. But we will find out together. :D

JL

[James Long]

International Launch Services website (http://www.ilslaunch.com/stories/Current_Campaigns/) - they are the ones launching AMC-15 and have lots of good pictures there including the one below. Enjoy!

http://www.ilslaunch.com/pictures/proton/medium/AMC15_SC.jpg
The site has larger images.

JL