Sirius Investors going NUTS!

[BobMurdoch]

OK, this is NUTS! (but in a good way).....

Sirius now up to $7.50 a share today and has almost quadrupled since August. Market Capitalization is huge.

As of 2 pm, 200 MILLION shares of the stock have been traded making up about 20% of ALL shares traded on Nasdaq today.

My son's growing College fund is happy but I'm wondering if this is the beginning of a huge runup once the reality catches up to the promise, or is it due for a fall?

At first I thought the money they paid Howard and Mel was nuts, but it may wind up being similar to the deal FOX made ten years ago to steal the NFC NFL contract from CBS... It put FOX on the map and made them a bonafide network. Meanwhile, XM has risen slightly in sympathy with the runup, but nowhere near the leap Sirius has made.

Any opinions re: what happens from here?

[badkclark]

I sure hope it continues. I bought 50 shares at 4.30 and I just bought another 50. I've already almost doubled my $$ on the first 50. I just hope it doesn't top out too soon. :-)

[Richard King]

I feel dumb. :( I sold out (most) about 2 and 3 points ago after doubling my money. I think it is crazy myself. The company isn't worth anything near it's current valuation. I still have a batch that I bought ages ago at around $15. Who knows, maybe someday I may break even on that lot also. :lol: It seems everyone is buying it or has bought it. I was in an equipment rental store today that rents office space from me and the manager said that ne just sold his 100 shares after making 50% on his money.

[BobMurdoch]

It seems to me to be unsustainable (and I expect the bears to attack in force over the next few weeks).

It may EVENTUALLY be worth these values in a few years after it starts making some profit, but I'm guessing they need to hit 4-5 million subscribers before these prices are justified.....

Then again, maybe a lot of those Howard fans are buying $250 worth of stock each.......

[deraz]

I bought a couple of months ago at $2.89 and $2.91. I am waiting for a down dip to purchase more in the $4 - $4.50 range.

[Richard King]

If it gets back to $4 I will be back in like crazy. :D

[Nick]

Sirius is still riding the crest of recent announcements, but as any surfer can tell you, for every wave, there is a trough. But in the market, not every trough is followed by crest. Now that XM has signed Snoop Dog, expect Sirius stock to adjust downward as the market adjusts to this staggering news from the competition.

It's da schnizzle! :D

[BobMurdoch]

I'm surprised that XM (which I also own..... I always hedge my bets), hasn't run up as much. I bought both last Dec. and XM has gone up 59% since then (no slouch there either compared to my Gateway and Nortel (ouch) stock) while Sirius has gone up 125% (I bought two batches with a $3.37 average aggregate price). I actually thought the XM would be the better buy because of the better balance sheet, less shares outstanding, and its market leader position. Hmm. Does XM have a runup in its future (I'm surprised they haven't done a stock split.... a 3 for 1 would bring them in line with Sirius's "cheap" price which the individual investors seem to respond to....

[Richard King]

XM could be following the Dish history of only doing a split when it reaches 80-100 per share. That level always seemed to make DISH split in the past. However, if they feel they are overvalued (even if they reach $100) they probably wouldn't split because after the inevitable correction they could end up a penny stock. :lol: By the way, I still hold both, but got rid of the stock I used to play with in SIRI. I would like to play with it some more, but not at these levels. :(

[BobMurdoch]

Yeah, I'm starting to feel like it's 1999 all over again. It's only a couple of thousand bucks so it won't kill me if it goes back down, but I've got 8 years as it is in a custodial fund for my kids' college fund (I know.... I have a 529 plan too.... I started this account 4 years ago before they came into existence)

[n8dagr8]

Yeah, I'm starting to feel like it's 1999 all over again. It's only a couple of thousand bucks so it won't kill me if it goes back down, but I've got 8 years as it is in a custodial fund for my kids' college fund (I know.... I have a 529 plan too.... I started this account 4 years ago before they came into existence)

Yeah...use to trade Sirius back when it bounced around $1-$2. Kicking myself now! A little off the topic but a great one for the college fund is Florida Rock (FRK)....very solid financials and a great performer.

[Richard King]

It is starting to get VERY silly now.... over $9.00 today

I did something a bit crazy with the $$ from Sirius. I bought an old internet boom stock, CMGI at $1.64. It has done very well since (hit $3.00 today). But then, considering that during the boom it was $160 per share, all is relative.

Florida Rock (FRK)....You are the second person in about 3 days to mention that one.

[Rick_R]

Many years ago I bought a stock on a tip and it quadrupled in a few months. My source of the tip told me to keep it as it would keep going up. Another friend told me to sell half. That way if it crashed I still would have doubled my money and if it kept going up I would be around for the ride.

Turns out it crashed and I had kept it all, but the second persons advice remains in my mind as the best advice.

Rick R

[BobMurdoch]

If you are worried, sell enough to take whatever you originally invested off the table (or whichever number you want)

Then you are playing with house money. So far this is the ONLY way I have left Atlantic City with more money than when I walked in, and I don't see why not it won't work as well here.......

I still can't believe that XM isn't at least keeping pace...... They've got just as much long term promise, much better equipment, and the market leader label. Oh well, congrats to all who got in early. Get those stop loss values updated and enjoy the ride.

[MarkA]

Probably because Sirius has a better satellite network than XM (XM has a better terrestrial network, but neither one has any terrestrial coverage in Montana so who cares?). That or Stern, you decide :)

[djlong]

It's a lot of irrational thinking because of Sirius' low stock price. People think it's a bargain because it's selling so much cheaper than XM's stock. They don't understand the concept of "outstanding shares" or the convertible warrants that Sirius has that could make a bad situation worse.

Look at market cap and tell me who's out of whack with reality.

[BobMurdoch]

Buzzzzzz!

SOMEONE finally woke up. Sirius crashed, er "corrected" 23% today. Still way up for the year, but the ones who cashed out yesterday are loving life......

[deraz]

If it gets back to $4 I will be back in like crazy. :D


Richard, get your money together. My $4 to $4.50 prediction is looking a little more reasonable now.

[Richard King]

I have my doubts that it will return to $4, but since I sold at $5.10 and $5.14 I would be prepared to jump back in big time. Sold the CMGI today at 2.58 then bot back at 2.46. I must be crazy. :lol:

[NThomas76207]

Is this sending the wrong message to ppl seeing that XM stock is fine but SIRIUS is going down the tubes???

[BobMurdoch]

They are both "fine". Sirius is up 130% over the last 12 months and XM is up 60% ver that span. If only the rest of the stocks I own were doing as well as these two.....

Sirius is a great long term play, and the investors are betting on 5 years down the road at the current valuations. The market took some profits after having a huge runup over the last 90 days. Even after the 25% drop the other day, it is still triple what it was in August.....