962?

[hounddog]

I emailed DISH a few months ago asking about the supposed upcoming 962, but of course the DISH babe in customer support acted confused as if she didn't know anything about it. I imagine that if I had been with DirectTV for 9 years, they wouldn't treat me any better than DISH, who offers the perks only to new subscribers. When and if the MPEG-4 version of the 942 is released, I imagine that old subscribers won't be able to get them in any type of promo, that it will probably be $1000+, and that owners of the 942 will be stuck with the 942 (won't be eligible for an upgrade). I guess that as long as DISH and DirectTV have the same policies (i.e., no competition), the consumer will be screwed.

[Ron Barry]

Since this thread had no actually 942 support issue or topic I have moved it to the General DVR area. As to when the Dish will release their MPEG-4 HD DVR, I doubt that a CSR would now that information at all.

[rickc]

Since this thread had no actually 942 support issue or topic I have moved it to the General DVR area. As to when the Dish will release their MPEG-4 HD DVR, I doubt that a CSR would now that information at all.

I'm thinkin that there are many higher-ups at Dishheadquarters who also have no idea when the new DVR will ship.:lol:

rich..

[Ron Barry]

Well knowing what I know about delivering embedded product what is in the mind of upper management, marketing and sales is usually a lot different than what engineering knows. Also, Given the nature of the beast nobody really knows exact dates and at this point in time usually any estimates are just SWAG (Scientific Wild A** guess or Super Wild A** guess) so given out a date would just cause customer dissatisfaction and there is nothing to be gained by it. Like my mommy use to say... "It will be done when it is done". ;)

[Stewart Vernon]

Most companies, and I worked at such a company once, are reluctant to "pre-announce" future products for a variety of reasons even IF CSRs or other people actually know about them.

There's dozens of reasons why it can be a bad business idea to announce a product that you have yet to release.

Sure, sometimes the info leaks to the public... but that isn't the same as an announcement from the company that binds them in some way to customers with an official statement vs rumor and speculation.

I frankly don't blame companies for not talking about the "962" or any other non-released receiver at this point. That's just good business.

[Ron Barry]

Yep... I full agree HDMe.. Sites on the internet is covered for reasons not to.

[Mike D-CO5]

The 962 was a product only mentioned on the following website.


www.vssll.com/dvr962.html



Notice there is no picture as it hasn't been invented yet. The rumours of this product started after this website was mentioned and it grew from there.

If Dish was smart they wouldn't come up with another dvr but just upgrade the 942 form mpeg2 - mpeg4 and re release it back to the customers. IN other words , just change the chip form mpeg2 - mpeg4 and change the front door on the unit so it reflects the mpeg4 working on the front. They could reship the units back out as refurbs and use them for failed units. Then they wouldn't have to reinvent the wheel again , just to have a mpeg4 hd dvr receiver. It would also save them from having to do new software again and they could get a return on their investment with the 942.

Now if they want to add another ota tuner so it has two ota tuners I wouldn't mind. Then they could call it what ever they want.

[hounddog]

The 962 was a product only mentioned on the following website.


www.vssll.com/dvr962.html



Notice there is no picture as it hasn't been invented yet. The rumours of this product started after this website was mentioned and it grew from there.

If Dish was smart they wouldn't come up with another dvr but just upgrade the 942 form mpeg2 - mpeg4 and re release it back to the customers. IN other words , just change the chip form mpeg2 - mpeg4 and change the front door on the unit so it reflects the mpeg4 working on the front. They could reship the units back out as refurbs and use them for failed units. Then they wouldn't have to reinvent the wheel again , just to have a mpeg4 hd dvr receiver. It would also save them from having to do new software again and they could get a return on their investment with the 942.

Now if they want to add another ota tuner so it has two ota tuners I wouldn't mind. Then they could call it what ever they want.


As my mother once said, that is a pregnant idea. Unfortunately, most of the dweebs in big business usually don't follow logic (sorta like Dilbert's boss). At any rate, maybe we will get lucky and DISH will adapt your idea.

[James Long]

The 962 was a product only mentioned on the following website.
www.vssll.com/dvr962.htmlOther more rumor oriented websites have discussed it as if it was a done deal too. I'd rather deal in facts. As far as we know there never will be a model 962. It is obvious that there will be a MPEG4 DVR, but lets stick with facts not wild rumors.If Dish was smart they wouldn't come up with another dvr but just upgrade the 942 form mpeg2 - mpeg4 and re release it back to the customers.I wonder if sometimes the engineers wish they could go back to the 942 and start from scratch. Do 942 users really want a 942 "patched" to work with MPEG4 or would they prefer a receiver that works better from the motherboard up?

JL

[SimpleSimon]

Do 942 users really want a 942 "patched" to work with MPEG4 or would they prefer a receiver that works better from the motherboard up?Considering the history of E*, patch is better.

They have proven it 100% of the time that they are NOT capable of producing even a relatively trouble-free box at initial release.

[dwcobb]

I dunno...I understand that they don't want to commit to a date, but I think Dish has an obligation to customers who are thinking about their upgrade options. The 962 is semi-official at this point, and since they HAVE announced the NON-DVR Mpeg4 HD receiver, I think it would only make sense for them to be saying something as basic as "we will have news on the DVR version in a couple of months..."

I check these sites frequently in the hopes that they have said something somewhere, but still no news, and for anyone who is wanting to do something to replace their box (or to sign up for dish) this is kind of a big deal.

[Mike D-CO5]

Other more rumor oriented websites have discussed it as if it was a done deal too. I'd rather deal in facts. As far as we know there never will be a model 962. It is obvious that there will be a MPEG4 DVR, but lets stick with facts not wild rumors.I wonder if sometimes the engineers wish they could go back to the 942 and start from scratch. Do 942 users really want a 942 "patched" to work with MPEG4 or would they prefer a receiver that works better from the motherboard up?

JL


I would rather have a patched 942 that works as well as it does now rather than a new 962 , that we have to start all over with with bugs. Dish has a long history of releasing buggy receivers that do not work as they are supposed to.

The 942 actually works pretty much like it is supposed to . The dolby digital audio problem on one of the pips is now fixed. The Voom audio synch problem is now fixed; I think that one was related to the uplink of the channels , not necessarily a 942 software problem. In short I am happy with the 942. I am not having any video pixelation problems as some are saying; I think that is individual tvs not communicating with the 942 well.

The only thing I would like to see happen is that they would add 2 ota tuners and give us the ability to add additional hard drives to add to our recording time. So a patched 942 that works with both mpeg2 and mpeg4 would be just fine with me. :D

[dave1234]

Adding Mpeg4 to the 942 would be very easy. The chipset currently used in the 942 is designed to be used with a companion mpeg 4 decoder. The only hardware change neccessary is the addition of this companion chip to the motherboard.

[KingLoop]

Not to digress from the 942/962 conversation here, but I feel compelled to point out that right now D* has their MPEG4 receiver (the H20) available to new and existing subs for $199 with a $200 rebate. hounddog said in his original post...

I imagine that if I had been with DirectTV for 9 years, they wouldn't treat me any better than DISH, who offers the perks only to new subscribers.

D* I think has done well in offering an amicable solution to their current HD subs.

I hope E* does as well come time for the upgrade.

[hounddog]

Not to digress from the 942/962 conversation here, but I feel compelled to point out that right now D* has their MPEG4 receiver (the H20) available to new and existing subs for $199 with a $200 rebate. hounddog said in his original post...



D* I think has done well in offering an amicable solution to their current HD subs.

I hope E* does as well come time for the upgrade.



Perhaps after being with DISH for over 9 years, I should tell DISH to stick it and switch to DirectTV. I went to DirectTV's web site and "built" a four room system that includes an HD DVR. The results copied from their web site follows (this is for new customers):

4-ROOM DIRECTV® HD DVR SYSTEM

• $499 after $100 instant online rebate!
• 1 DIRECTV Multi-Satellite Dish
• 1 DIRECTV® HD DVR
• 3 standard receivers
• Add up to 2 more standard receivers for $49 each
• Standard professional installation included
• Access to over 225 channels of programming


Sounds much better than DISH. Any comments? And don't be surprised that when the successor to the 942 is released, DISH tells 942 owners "too bad", but they won't be eligible for any type of upgrade.

[James Long]

It is only a rumor at this point that there will be MPEG4 channels for the new receivers to use anytime soon. The Vip211 and 411 appear to be quietly replacing the 811. I suspect once testing is finished the MPEG4 DVR box will quietly replace the 942. I don't see E* releasing MPEG4 channels until after they have a MPEG4 DVR on the open market. "Don't Panic" seems to be a good plan.

BTW: This is an E* DVR Specific forum. No need to troll for D* here. :)

JL

[hounddog]

It is only a rumor at this point that there will be MPEG4 channels for the new receivers to use anytime soon. The Vip211 and 411 appear to be quietly replacing the 811. I suspect once testing is finished the MPEG4 DVR box will quietly replace the 942. I don't see E* releasing MPEG4 channels until after they have a MPEG4 DVR on the open market. "Don't Panic" seems to be a good plan.

BTW: This is an E* DVR Specific forum. No need to troll for D* here. :)

JL

I a not "trolling" for DirectTV. I was simply letting everyone know how disappointed I am in DISH.

[James Long]

When and if the MPEG-4 version of the 942 is released, I imagine that old subscribers won't be able to get them in any type of promo, that it will probably be $1000+, and that owners of the 942 will be stuck with the 942 (won't be eligible for an upgrade).And don't be surprised that when the successor to the 942 is released, DISH tells 942 owners "too bad", but they won't be eligible for any type of upgrade.Don't let your imagination run too wild and let your fear make decisions for you. As noted by KingLoop, D* has an existing customer deal running. As noted on the last Tech Forum (when the 411/211 was introduced) there will be existing customer upgrades.

I wouldn't worry about getting an MPEG4 receiver until there is actual MPEG4 content available to subscribers. If what they called "8PSK Turbo" on the last Tech Forum works as well as noted on the forum (30%-40% efficiency increase without MPEG4) it may be a while until we see MPEG4.

JL

[Ron Barry]

I dunno...I understand that they don't want to commit to a date, but I think Dish has an obligation to customers who are thinking about their upgrade options. The 962 is semi-official at this point, and since they HAVE announced the NON-DVR Mpeg4 HD receiver, I think it would only make sense for them to be saying something as basic as "we will have news on the DVR version in a couple of months..."

I check these sites frequently in the hopes that they have said something somewhere, but still no news, and for anyone who is wanting to do something to replace their box (or to sign up for dish) this is kind of a big deal.

I am in the same boat as far as the wait game. As far as the 962 being semi-official I would not say that. There has been no official word from Dish in this regards. Just because it is posted on a website does not make it true.

What you are talking about here dwcobb is a two edge sword. If dish was to make your statment and they did not release a MPEG4 HD DVR in two months people would be yelling "Where is that damn receiver". Dish has done this in the past when they are optimistic about a release and then when they run into the last mile hurdle and the release gets pushed back it creates a lot of negative feedback. If dish said they would have a DVR in 2 months and it took 6, I am sure you would be even more upset and some might even call Dish Liers in that case. Making statement like you suggest dwcobb is a no win situation with Dish.. One of those. Damned if you do.. Damned if you don't situation.

Popular opinion is that there will be a Dish MPEG 4 HD DVR out. The 64K question is when. I don't think anyone really knows the answer to that at this point and it is a waiting game. Sucks.. but that is the nature of the business.

[dwcobb]

I disagree.

You only need to look at the tech market to see that companies routinely pre-announce new products, and in situations that are far more sensitive than this. Heard of the Playstation 3 I am sure. No release date out yet, but features are pretty well known (though they have changed).

Same happens with new chips, new video boards, new sound card technology. And in the Consumer Electronics market, people pre-announce products all the time. HD-DVD players on the way, Blu-Ray DVD players on the way, etc.

Dish is in my view out of step with normal practice by not revealing more of its intentions here. Even acknowledging officially that there WILL be a 962 at some point would be a step in the right direction for them.

And I am sure they can do a timeline. If they are not far enough along on it to project when they can release it, you can be pretty sure it would be safe for them to say "2007."

The reality is that most people don't bother to look for information about Dish receivers in advance...only those of us who go to sites like this. If we as a group can't deal with an announcment that says "our goal is Q2 '06 but that will depend on our progress" that is just sad. And the reality is, even if everyone on this board and the others spontaneously burst into flames in frustration, it wouldn't really matter much in the overall scheme of their client base. The vast majority of dish customers have probably never been to a Dish-oriented message board in their lives.

My issue is right now, you have now way of knowing for sure if the next HD DVR is 3 months away or 20 months away. Not even a ballpark.

[BobMurdoch]

I still think we are at least a half year away from a MPeg4 HD PVR. I'm guessing they will unveil a prototype at the CES in January, but I don't see them shipping a finished box until well into 2006. Hopefully that will make them hold off offering Mpeg4 exclusive channels until that time.....

[Ron Barry]

Actually companies handle this very differently. IBM is very conservative in making pre-release type announcements. Microsoft is on the other side of the spectrum. They use Pre-release press releases as a competitive hammer. I never said that it is not done. My point is there is a downside to both in terms of customer confidence and also

Example:
I work in the tech field and a product I worked for had a pre-relase press release that was like 8 months before the product was ready to got out the window. The press release actually stated that it was soon to ship because Marketing never talked to engineering on what the real date was and went by the orginal estimated date. Well to make a long story short.. the company took a lot of heat for this and making statements like this can freeze sales.

As for Dish being in steep.. My experience has been ever company handles this situation differently. Dish at times has been more aggressive with this information and when unable to deliver they have taken a lot of heat. DirecTV is more closed mouth and takes heat for not being more open. Dish might be swinging to be more like DirecTV in this case. That is ofcourse my opinion..

[LtMunst]

It seems to me the primary issue is Dish's plans for new HD with regards to whether or not it is MPEG4. If Dish states the new HD channels will be 8PSK then there really is no point to worrying about the "962" for quite some time.

[Stewart Vernon]

When you pre-announce a new product... it affects your current sales. People who are saying "I don't know whether to buy now or wait" will absolutely wait if Dish says it will be less than 6 months away... and Dish loses revenue during this time... and if they miss their projected 6-month window? Then they lose more money and customers who waited get mad.

If they say "it will be 1+ years from now" then a bunch of people will say why can't they do what DirecTV is doing now? And those people will threaten to leave Dish because it is "taking too long"... and again Dish loses money.

I understand people are naturally impatient and want everything now... but I don't know where this expectation came from during my lifetime that suddenly companies owe it to tell us all their future plans now too. I missed that panic memo I guess.

There are people who are always happy, people who will always complain, and then most people who just sort of go with the flow neither happy nor not taking things as they come... so it isn't worth a company rocking the boat to announce things they aren't very sure of.

Using the Playstation 3 example... Try to find mention of Playstation 3 on Sony's Web site. I couldn't. I suspect any Playstation 3 info you are finding isn't coming from Sony directly, unless they are leaking information under the table to test the waters. Companies do this sometimes too... leak information unofficially to guage public reaction to see if they are moving in the right direction before making an official company statement.

[dwcobb]

They shouldn't be selling 942's if the 962 is around the corner. Even with delayed implementation of MPEG4, they should be gradually replacing those boxes. The more non-MPEG out there to replace, the worse it is for them. Customers should have some inkling about this when making purchase decisions.

As far as Sony is concerned, they did a huge press conference on the PS3 last May, and have spoken to a lot of trade press. There is plenty of Sony-sanctioned info out there about the PS3, whether or not it is easy to find on their website.

[Stewart Vernon]

They shouldn't be selling 942's if the 962 is around the corner. Even with delayed implementation of MPEG4, they should be gradually replacing those boxes. The more non-MPEG out there to replace, the worse it is for them.

I agree with this mostly... If a company is producing a product, and is designing a replacement product, they should have end-of-life plans in place which include end-of-marketing (when they stop advertising old product), end-of-manufacturing (when they stop making the old product), and end-of-sales (when they stop selling any already manufactured old product). This is part of smart business.

And as you point out, to ease replacement headaches down the road, it behooves them to think about their future plans while making the current product so they don't end up in a worse scenario down the road than they have to be in swapping old for new.

Customers should have some inkling about this when making purchase decisions.

This part I don't necessarily agree with. If a business has a definate plan, and they know they are going to make the deadline, then they should announce so as to get customers ready and in the mode to buy... but when their plans are not set, they should not make announcements about vaporware or projects that they think will happen and so forth.

It is very dangerous to get into the pre-announce mode unless you make all your targets.

In the scheme of things... Technology is almost always out-of-date within a few months of purchase anyway... things improve and prices go down all the time... this is a fact. So a company doesn't have to apologise for producing better equipment at a better price next year than they did last year!

BUT... if they announce something better and cheaper... and then they don't release it as planned... customers will start to not believe in them or their products... and this is a bad thing for business.

As a consumer I like to know as much as I can... but I don't feel I am owed this information, nor does it surprise me that companies don't want to release it.

[navychop]

Mike D-CO5: From what I've read, your description in post 7 is exactly what the 962 is- a 942 with MPEG-4 and maybe a larger hard drive.

An announcement of a future product, not to be released in the very short term, risks sending people to the competition or drying up sales as people wait for the new- as HDMe posted. Remember that "luggable" PC company that went bankrupt when news of an improved model leaked too soon? Sales dried up, they ran out of money before they could get the new out the door. So: Don't release info too soon; Don't stop current production until release is certain.

Releasing some info to this, or any forum/bulletin board, would result in the story being picked up and published in the wider press. Timing of a press release is important.

Anyone leaving E* now for D* will be moving to lower HD PQ, as has been documented elsewhere.

AFAIK, it still is not definite how the additional Voom 11 channels will be transmitted. It was announced in a Chat that they would be in MPEG-4, but things change. I suspect we'll know the answer to this in January.

I believe the 942 was released as a pretty solid product. Sure, some features were for later release, like NTSC OTA. It was a later s/w update that caused problems, mostly fixed by now.

...And I thought it was Silly Wild A........

[Mike D-CO5]

If the 962 is nothing more than the 942 with a larger hard drive and the mpeg4 processing chip then Dish should save lots of money.

They could do just what I said and put in the chip and the larger hard drive , change out the front of the door on the receiver and put the new one on that says mpeg4. They could also just give you a software update that would allow you to add extra hard drives via the usb port so you could have more recording time.

I still wouldn't mind if they would add a second ota tuner to the new replacement. I would love to be able to record 2 ota stations at the same time. When you want to record 2 hd stations at the same time it would definately come in handy.

[dwcobb]

Dish Network is NOT in the hardware business, however. So citing examples of businessses going bankrupt because of preannouncing products makes no sense. If their profitability relies on them selling their "fine" boxes, they are in bigger trouble than anyone can imagine.

But we will simply agree to disagree I think. I can see no reasonable harm in them preannouncing. If their business success requires them to force people to buy up the inventory on the 942 so they can later sell them a full priced upgrade (again), then they are a shoddy kind of company with no respect for their customers.

On the 962 proper, one thing I would want to be different from the 942 is support for VOD. I would hope that would be a given but of course we will see ... some day...maybe?

[navychop]

Yes, the Dish business plan seems to include "sorta VOD" on future DVRs. It's probably not of much interest to me- but if they're in HD, I might change my mind. I'd rather have the extra space for my own recordings, but there's limits to how much I'd want to keep on a DVR.

[Jon Spackman]

I dont know about the rest of you, but having used the VOD from a cable service (comcast) while visit the in-laws.....Its really cool. I, like navychop would prefer my own extra space, but if they are going to use it for virtual-VOD, then it should be cool. I hope some HD is available someday. The comcast one i played with was cool except the movie was stereo sound and non-HD (thru an HD box).


Jon

[dwcobb]

It would also be nice if they did something more worthwhile with HD PPV. I often see things under regular PPV that I would like to see but since it is 4x3 and not HD, I decide to wait on the DVD.

[Stewart Vernon]

I have seen the Time Warner cable VOD, and I have to say I'm not impressed. It isn't like you can just choose whatever you want to view on demand, as the commercials imply, but you can choose only from whatever they have decided are popular to have VOD... which may or may not jive with what you or I actually want to select.

I'm underwhelmed at the notion of satellite (Dish or DirecTV) offering this service as not only would it be the same kind of limited selection... but limited even more by the space they reserve on your hard drive.

I realize it is probably a relatively cheap feature to add as opposed to other things they could do... but VOD doesn't impress me one way or the other right now as I've seen it.

[Mike D-CO5]

Actually Dish has reserved space on your hard drive on all their dvr receivers that doesn't conflict with your recording capabilities. So if they did down loads of video on demand on their portion of the hard drive and offered it FREE to customers it would be an added service.

Imagine if you sub to say Hbo or Showtime and Dish would have the series tv shows from these channels already on your hard drive and you could watch them when you wanted to FREE. I think it would be a nice addition. It would sure beat the hell out of what Dish does now with the 625 video on demand feature. They have a bunch of old movies you can watch for a price of 2.99 and up on certain movies. It isn't worth having the way it is set up now.

Now if they would set up a third sat tuner that would be only used for video on demand movies on a much larger hard drive space ( both for the customer and for Dish's use) , it would work. They could record all the shows they wanted to and never have it conflict with your recording on the other 2 sat tuners. They could still download pay per view movies as well and charge for them. They could still make money as well as offer an added service to their customers.

Now if Dish would only do dvr receivers like the above version I described , they could even eliminate the pay per views up on the sat and just download them to your hard drive .

OF course this is only a wish. I am sure that Dish will never do this as it makes to much sense.

[dwcobb]

Several years ago in business school I cajoled a group I was working with to do a paper on the experiments that were being done with the "on demand" concept at the time.

The vision for on demand then was much more ambitious than what you see live today. There were hundreds of options on massive storage on the other end and you ordered them more like a hotel's in-room PPV system. It was a mix of TV shows and movies, but the experience really approached the idea of a "virtual video store" that you could reach with your remote control.

It is kind of DVR on steroids, and I still believe it is where television will go in time, even if the medium for it ends up being internet based TV (a real possibility, and something that is already beginning to find some roots in Europe). So, basically, instead of planning ahead to record something you want to see, you find the specific show you want to watch right now and select it.

I am in the media (albeit not in TV) and I watch a lot of the discussions on what is happening on the TV front. Networks are darned nervous about the implications of DVR's and at this point, DVR viewership is being discounted from TV ad rates. As DVR's proliferate, the whole model for ad-based American TV could crumble.

Part of the response you are seeing is the return to the embedded advertising in programs...the product placements, etc have been getting more and more overt.

But looking to the long view, and assuming for the moment that DVRs will continue to build marketshare, and more and more people will have those skip 30 second buttons, the picture could look grim for what we are used to getting. And while we do pay our carriers for the TV we are getting (cable, satellite etc) we don't pay enough in aggregate to fund the programming we watch.

Personally, I really do hope the PPV/On Demand approach wins out. If I am paying "about $100 a month" for my TV, I would rather know that what I am buying is shows I really watch rather than funding a lot of expensive sports programs I don't want, or getting 8 billion shopping channels.

It will be interesting to see how "TV" really works in about 30 years time. I won't be the crazy futurist and say 10 or 20 years...change is slow. But change will definitely come.

VOD I think has a lot of promise, even if this current iteration is anemic. Dish really has to be playing in this space to figure it out for their long term.

[navychop]

Neither my 721 nor my 508 DVRs have space reserved by DISH for "VOD." The only stuff DISH has put on my hard drives is the EPG info and maybe some software.

[P Smith]

Hehe, your wish will not come true :) - for sure 508 and 510 will have the VOD feature soon;
two factors working here - Dish testing new software for 508 and 510 with VOD support; - on your disk exist big unused partition, probably 1/3 of total size.

[James Long]

True(ish). The 625 is the only receiver with VOD space at the moment. It is possible that the 522's will be adjusted to have the VOD feature.

E* has in the past 'reserved' some space on hard drives for their promotional materials (such as ClubDish cards) that get downloaded in the mittle of the night - and I believe their Term and Conditions allow this, even when they don't use the space.

JL

[Ghostwriter]

Well I for one am no fan of VOD at least not what Comcast calls on-demand. There are only a few things worth watching on there anyway. Give me a larger HD to record what I want.

As far as the 942/62, I was offered the $250 new customer upgrade even though I am a current subscriber. After reading here about MPEG4 I backed off and passed on the lease deal, which I now regret. I don't think the 962 will be around before late 2006 but thats just my opinion. It seems my 811 is spooling new s/w for turbo qpsk and readiness for E10. This just leads me to believe the the idea of Turbo QPSK over MPEG4 is very real and I see them in no hurry to roll out the HD DVR.

[tegage]

When you pre-announce a new product... it affects your current sales. People who are saying "I don't know whether to buy now or wait" will absolutely wait if Dish says it will be less than 6 months away... and Dish loses revenue during this time... and if they miss their projected 6-month window? Then they lose more money and customers who waited get mad.

I agree. You are referring to what is called the "Osborn Effect". A company should not pre-announce a new product if it will make people wait to buy it instead of purchasing the current product.

I am an example of this. I want a HD DVR badly. I can afford one, but have pushed off the purchase for 4-5 months now based on the 962 rumor. If I was an average customer that didn't spend time on DBS forums, I would not have heard the rumor and would have purchased a 942 by now.

Sometimes pre-announcement is good. In this case, it would not be.

[tegage]

BTW - the feature I would love to see on a 962 would be HD TV2 output. I use the SD TV2 output on my 625 a lot. With both my TV's now HD, This feature would be cool.

[navychop]

tegage:

Thank you. I could not remember the name of that luggable computer company that went under due to pre announcing. Osburne. See a short bit about the story here: http://inventors.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://oldcomputers.net/osborne.html

[dwcobb]

I agree. You are referring to what is called the "Osborn Effect". A company should not pre-announce a new product if it will make people wait to buy it instead of purchasing the current product.

I am an example of this. I want a HD DVR badly. I can afford one, but have pushed off the purchase for 4-5 months now based on the 962 rumor. If I was an average customer that didn't spend time on DBS forums, I would not have heard the rumor and would have purchased a 942 by now.

Sometimes pre-announcement is good. In this case, it would not be.

Again, I think we just have to agree to disagree.

I think it is a terrible thing for Dish to be selling $700 upgrades to a non-Mpeg4 compliant DVR to current customers with an MPEG option potentially less than 6 months out.

They are only making a bigger problem for themselves, and if I had NOT been watching this board, and had decided to bump up to the 942 for $700, after paying $500 on the 921 (I know - that was the "deal" price), and then found out I had another full price upgrade I would need later...they would probably lose me as a customer.

Screwing your customer base to sell box upgrades makes no sense when your business model is supposed to be all about the monthly service fees.

Boxes should be sold at cost or near it; the 921 shows me pretty clearly they have no business trying to be a hardware company.

[LtMunst]

They are only making a bigger problem for themselves, and if I had NOT been watching this board, and had decided to bump up to the 942 for $700, after paying $500 on the 921 (I know - that was the "deal" price), and then found out I had another full price upgrade I would need later...they would probably lose me as a customer.

Screwing your customer base to sell box upgrades makes no sense when your business model is supposed to be all about the monthly service fees.



What makes you assume you would have to do a full price upgrade later? When MPEG4 becomes mandatory for programming (seems it will be awhile now) Dish is very likely to offer a good upgrade path. If you had NOT been watching this board, you would probably be much happier.

[tegage]

navychop:

Here's a blurb on the Osborne Effect from: http://mediacenter.blogs.com/morph/2005/08/apple_and_micro.html It makes interesting reading.

Osborn Effect



At the beginning of the last decade, Adam Osborn became famous in the silicon valley for pre-announcing the following year’s product and killing both current-year sales and his company. This is called the Osborn Effect. Microsoft is the only company that regularly begins talking about the next generation product years before it actually shows up and then wondering why adoption of the current product fails to meet expectations.

Apple, in contrast, refused to talk about products until they were announced and as a result enjoyed much better adoption as a percentage of their installed base. (They even go so far as to take fan sites to court who get access to this information early). Recently, Apple announced 18 months in advance their move to a new (Intel) architecture, and recent surveys indicate a massive shift out of potential demand. This should adversely impact Apple’s numbers in the next two quarters and there was no real reason to do the announcement this early.

dwcobb -

I'm going to purchase a 942 becuase I am tired of waiting. If they come out with a 962 without an upgrade option - for either the new unit or upgrading the 942 - then I'll be in your camp. I am hopeful that won't be the case. But, as a business executive, as cold as it can sound, a company needs to protect its profits, otherwise they loose market share and their employees loose their jobs and we loose a product/service we enjoy. Bottom line, these issues are always difficult with many sides to the story.

[Stewart Vernon]

Word on the street has been that Microsoft is selling their new XBox 360 at or under cost... and that package goes for around $400 retail.

Dish isn't selling 942s directly to consumers. Instead you are buying them from retailers.... so how do you know Dish isn't selling them to the retailers at cost, and the rest of the markup isn't the profit the retailers are making for themselves?

[dwcobb]

Quote:
What makes you assume you would have to do a full price upgrade later? When MPEG4 becomes mandatory for programming (seems it will be awhile now) Dish is very likely to offer a good upgrade path. If you had NOT been watching this board, you would probably be much happier.


Again, from current upgrade paths, I see no indication that this is going to be the case in the near future.

DIsh has indicated a gradual migration to MPEG4, so there may be a period of up to year(s) before they feel compelled to cut a deal for current customers. If you don't need MPEG4, you can presumably continue to use your 942 until MPEG4 content is delivered. That doesn't sound anytime soon.

However, I expect them to roll out a 962 next year...just not to use MPEG4 for a while. Then they can hope that their installed base will opt to pay full price for the upgrade BEFORE they cut a deal.

I think the Xbox is a perfect example of the technical issue we are talking about here (and the same is true of playstation). The profit model for dish is from the subscription revenue, not the one time box sale. As a customer, if they sell me a box one time for $500, and I use it for 3 years and pay $100/month in subscription fees, my subscription value to them ends up being $3,600. Then yes, I may buy another box later (and if they make a small profit on it then I am sure they are happy). But their revenue is all about their subscriptions not their boxes. Protecting unit sales on out of date (or soon to be out of date) boxes is a suicidal strategy for a company whose primary business is ongoing subscription revenue.

That is what I am expecting. I see no reason to believe it won't play out that way right now.

As far as who is actually making the sale, it is really irrelevant. Dish could be selling directly to consumers like they have with other boxes (like my 921). The fact that they opted to put this through the retail channel is an indication that yes, they are trying to be in the box building business as a profit center to some degree. This is the oddball receiver in their line up as I understand it, is it not?

[Ghostwriter]

Although I have found alot of great info on this site sometimes I wsh I never found it. I could have upgraded to a 942 as a new customer sub back in October, but there was already talk of MPEG4 deployment being around the corner. Now I sit here in mid december almost and MPEG4 looks further away not closer. I am going to try to get that lease deal again on the 942 and if they offer it I will jump right on this time.

[Stewart Vernon]

Although I have found alot of great info on this site sometimes I wsh I never found it. I could have upgraded to a 942 as a new customer sub back in October, but there was already talk of MPEG4 deployment being around the corner. Now I sit here in mid december almost and MPEG4 looks further away not closer. I am going to try to get that lease deal again on the 942 and if they offer it I will jump right on this time.

You're the perfect example of why a company shouldn't pre-announce stuff... because if they had been talking about the "962" then you would be in a position to blame them for waiting all this time.

As it is, you just fell into the rumor-trap that many of us fall into from time to time... but at least you aren't blaming Dish like some people would do in your situation.

Hopefully they'll do something for you.

[dwcobb]

Although I have found alot of great info on this site sometimes I wsh I never found it. I could have upgraded to a 942 as a new customer sub back in October, but there was already talk of MPEG4 deployment being around the corner. Now I sit here in mid december almost and MPEG4 looks further away not closer. I am going to try to get that lease deal again on the 942 and if they offer it I will jump right on this time.

Contrariwise, I bought the 921 without seeing any of these sites and found out that the 942 came out almost immediately after I upgraded to HD (about 3 months I think). I had assumed the price was $499 because they were getting cheaper to build.

Had I known what was pending, I would have waited and paid the $700 for the box I really wanted and not the $500 for the lemon I got. The key feature I overlooked on the 942 when it did come out was name based recording, which is my biggest technical pet peeve with the 921. Since they have no plans of adding that feature to the 921 that I am aware of, all I can do is regret. When the box was first announced the materials focussed on the 2 HD outputs thing which simply was irrelevant to me. NBR, however, is hugely important since I am a loyal Tivo kind of guy and had to give that up when I went HD with Dish.

The fact my personal box is a lemon is kind of beside the point. It pisses me off, but I know not everyone has as bad an experience with the 921 as I do. That makes the current upgrade choice more frustrating, however, since I put up with a machine that is a real junker (my box specifically not the line in general) and feel strongly I should sit tight this time and just simmer about it, rather than buying a 942 and risking finding out that a leaner/meaner/better box comes out almost immediately (again).

As far as HDMe's "blaming dish" comment, I do feel it is their responsiblity to communicate on their upgrade plans. They do have monthly on-TV forums where they talk about these things. They first started talking about MPEG4 receivers for HD on those shows back in January (at the latest - I checked and found one mention in a Charlie chat at least that far back). The Non-DVR version of the Mpeg 4 box is officially announced. It is only natural they say SOMETHING about the DVR version. I don't blame Dish for my past decisions, but for not giving the information I need to make reasonable current decisions, yes, yes I do. And no apologies for it, either.

I frankly find the arguments about ruining their own market weak and irrational. They are not in the box business. They are in the service business. To reduce the arguments being made to their most basic form, you are basically saying that it is "good business" for Dish to dump inventory of its last generation into the market as long as possible when they are in an upgrade cycle. Particularly when they are migrating (gradually) to MPEG4, that makes no business sense to me.

[Stewart Vernon]

As far as HDMe's "blaming dish" comment, I do feel it is their responsiblity to communicate on their upgrade plans. They do have monthly on-TV forums where they talk about these things. They first started talking about MPEG4 receivers for HD on those shows back in January (at the latest - I checked and found one mention in a Charlie chat at least that far back). The Non-DVR version of the Mpeg 4 box is officially announced. It is only natural they say SOMETHING about the DVR version. I don't blame Dish for my past decisions, but for not giving the information I need to make reasonable current decisions, yes, yes I do. And no apologies for it, either.

But do you tell Dish (and all other companies with whom you do business) all of your future plans? Like when you are thinking of taking a vacation, or changing jobs that might affect your finances in the future? Do you tell Dish how much money you are looking to spend in the next 6 months on a new box should they release one? And do you tell all other companies as well? How about if you are thinking of having children, and would then be more interested in children's programming OR might have less money to spend on your satellite TV? Don't you owe them that information too? So that when you change your service they have been able to plan for that?

All you owe Dish is to pay your monthly bill... and all they owe you is to give you what you pay for. Bottom line. Anything else is gravy... and good business just don't tell everyone all their plans because plans sometimes don't ever happen, other times happen off-schedule... and if you blame Dish now for not telling you something, I guarantee you'd blame them more if they told you something and didn't follow through!

I frankly find the arguments about ruining their own market weak and irrational. They are not in the box business. They are in the service business. To reduce the arguments being made to their most basic form, you are basically saying that it is "good business" for Dish to dump inventory of its last generation into the market as long as possible when they are in an upgrade cycle. Particularly when they are migrating (gradually) to MPEG4, that makes no business sense to me.

You said it yourself actually... they are in the business to provide satellite service... and right now they are providing that to you, and you're paying for it. So they haven't lost any money from you by not telling you about future plans!

Now, if you're willing to grant they have lost money by not telling you about a future MPEG4 DVR... you'd have to also grant that they make a profit on those sales... which nullifies your earlier assertion that they can't hurt themselves by preannouncing a product that they don't profit from.

[dwcobb]

My implied point is that they could indeed lose business from people who KNOW what DirectTV is doing on the receiver front with MPEG4 rollout and local high def.

They are in a competitive situation where their competitors have already declared a clear upgrade path for current customers. Dish, on the other hand, has backpeddled on how important MPEG4 is to them in the near term, which hints strongly to me that there will be no deals (I don't expect them).

So yes, they can indeed lose money. Not from me right now--programming issues keep me locked at Dish. I am only there for two exclusive channels at this point. I was not really a willing customer in the first place, and I feel a bit jerked around by what has been happening with their lack of information about upcoming costs to me.

I need to upgrade my box. I have been waiting for six months for news on the next generation so I don't get burned again. I just want a timeline ... a rough one.

And my points about their business line and profit is not about "oh my god they will lose me as a customer." It is about the fact that they are sharing nothing when their competitors have been very outspoken about what they are doing. They will lose some of their customers because of this, yes.

At any rate, this is just kind of going round in circles. We just don't agree, which is fine. I am not screaming hatred at Dish. I am very very frustrated that I have been in limbo for so long about upgrading my box, and (barring some actual info in Charlie chat on Monday) I am thinking I am going to stay there for at least another six months.

[Stewart Vernon]

My implied point is that they could indeed lose business from people who KNOW what DirectTV is doing on the receiver front with MPEG4 rollout and local high def.

Not to be argumentative... but DirecTV's MPEG4 rollout plans don't mean anything until they actually happen. If you are comparing Dish's lack of announcement to DirecTV's announcement, you are comparing with vaporware until DirecTV actually starts a major rollout and replacement of receivers.

They are in a competitive situation where their competitors have already declared a clear upgrade path for current customers. Dish, on the other hand, has backpeddled on how important MPEG4 is to them in the near term, which hints strongly to me that there will be no deals (I don't expect them)

There's no need for Dish to declare any kind of MPEG4 rollout plan until they are ready to implement the plan. DirecTV may have an announced plan, but that may or may not become reality! DirecTV doesn't have TNTHD for instance... and that channel has been live for a couple of years now... and DirecTV customers have been hearing that they have "plans to add the channel" for a long time.

No point in competing with plans when Dish can be more than competitive with actual reality.

[KingLoop]

My implied point is that they could indeed lose business from people who KNOW what DirectTV is doing on the receiver front with MPEG4 rollout and local high def.

E*'s MPEG4 receivers are coming soon and that is an agreed upon fact among anyone involved with E* on a business level.


So yes, they can indeed lose money. Not from me right now--programming issues keep me locked at Dish. I am only there for two exclusive channels at this point. I was not really a willing customer in the first place, and I feel a bit jerked around by what has been happening with their lack of information about upcoming costs to me.
Plans on the upgrades are still being formulated. Right now in very select markets D* is doing their upgrades. D* did get a small jump on E* on that front; but for HD E* is still the CLEAR leader. So why would E*'s executives worry about HD "competition".

I need to upgrade my box. I have been waiting for six months for news on the next generation so I don't get burned again. I just want a timeline ... a rough one.

The new receivers are CURRENTLY in production.

And my points about their business line and profit is not about "oh my god they will lose me as a customer." It is about the fact that they are sharing nothing when their competitors have been very outspoken about what they are doing. They will lose some of their customers because of this, yes.

I would reiterate, E* does not appear to be worried in the least about this possibility.

[tegage]

The new receivers are CURRENTLY in production.




I wish you wouldn't of said that. I had just come to grip with a decision to not wait and to purchase a 942. Now you have me waffling again:nono2:

[rolodoc]

I wish you wouldn't of said that. I had just come to grip with a decision to not wait and to purchase a 942. Now you have me waffling again:nono2:

Perhaps he is referring to the 411/211, not 962.

[James Long]

I hope so. The 962 being in production would be breaking news that even E* would be suprised to hear.

JL

[KingLoop]

Perhaps he is referring to the 411/211, not 962.
Oh yes, 411/211,

My post was in response to the complaints that D* had their MPEG4 receivers out already and E* hadn't made some big press release about their own.

[Bill R]

The 962 being in production would be breaking news that even E* would be suprised to hear.

JL

Very true according to one of my E* contacts. According to him, the design is "just about" finalized and "production runs are expected to start early in 2006".

[dwcobb]

I really hope your source turns out to be right, but the good thing/bad thing about a site like this is you hear from a guy who heard it from a guy who heard it from Dish.

I like that it sounds like this is a second degree contact, but for now I will just hold off on building up any hopes about it and hope there is a good announcement around CES.

[James Long]

Even if they started rolling off the assembly line next week I wouldn't expect to see it on the market for consumers until mid year. Don't put off getting HD just to wait on a "962".

JL

[dwcobb]

I suppose for many - but I already have HD and the 921. I just want to upgrade to a box with NBR, and of course, a box that I don't have to reset every other day.

It is annoying, but better to wait and spend $700 once later (or better still, less if they DO cut a deal) than risk spending $700 now, and then $700 again 7 months from now.

[Jon Spackman]

I would not wait. The 942 replacement is not coming very soon. The 942 is available today and works very well. Dish has been working hard to get the 942's problems ironed out. I had a 921 and am very glad i replaced it with a 942. I had no confidence in the 921. I was afraid if i was recording a show and finished a previously recorded show and wnet to delete it that it would mess up my recording in progress.

Yes, you could wait, but you could also get a 942 now and enjoy it everyday until the next latest and greatest comes out sometime next year! Its only money!