How long will it take after merger?

[AJ2086]

How long will it possibly take for E* customers to see channels that were only on D* and vice versa? Will it happen instantly? Or will it take like a month, a year, or more?

[Scott Greczkowski]

Probably a year or more. (sucks huh?) :D

[Adam Richey]

I agree with Scott, although if they did officially merge and become one company, I'm sure that one company would have one contract for each channel, even if that company hadn't really combined services yet. Would that not be correct?

[Geronimo]

look at the Primestar precedent. It took quite awhile for the "benefits" of the merger to be realized.

[Chris Freeland]

Why would it take a year or more? If the New E* decides to duplicate most or all core channels until a single format is decided on and implemented, there would probably only be maybe a dozen or so additions and would just be a matter of turning on the switch. Personally I believe that until every thing is consolidated unto one platform that with in a few months or so we will see common basic and premium channel programing packages offered in both the current E* and D* formats. Most likely core and locals in current E* format on 110, core and locals in current D* format on 101, Spanish and locals in both formats on 119, HD and Chinese channel in current D* format on 119, HD and International in current E* format on 61.5 and 148. Subs with duel-speak STB's ( or own both D* and E* STB's) and proper dishes should be able to receive everything (if they can afford it:D) soon after the merger.

In the long term I suspect that a few locals at a time will be switched over to chosen singe format, will likely take 2 or 3 years to convert all locals to one format. Once all locals are in a single format it should not take long to combine core channels to one format which will open up a lot of bandwidth of additional National channels and services.

[Geronimo]

I think the thread started out discussing more than locals. There are a lot of issues concerning what format to use----and what receivers really are "dual speak" and what to doa bout people with the "wrong" format.

Bottom line is that there is no announcement and we can be optimistic or pessimistic as we choose but we are all speculating.

[jrjcd]

keep in mind that charlie is NOT going to honor any contracts that he feels is not in his benefit-and one thing charlie doesn't like is the high price of the NFL package....

(and before anyone says anything-keep in mind that the ONLY reason charlie even considered having the ticket on dish is because dtv had it-without the competition of dtv after the merger, charlie will have no reason to keep the service-)

[Nick]

Jack, you are way off-base with your analysis.

In acquiring D*, Charlie also aquires the rights and responsibilities of each programming contract.

Why would he keep ST? Simple, it brings in new subs by the droves.

[Chris Freeland]

Charlie will keep NFLST because he does not want cable to get it, NFLST brings in a lot of converts from cable and cable is the primary competition.

[Geronimo]

The Sunday Ticket contract is. I believe in it s final year. So in that particular case there wont be much of a responsibilty to acquire.

As for who will go after the new package I can't say. Neither the FCC nor the DOJ has ruled. After that we have to see what the state AGs do.

Historically Charlie has not been too keen on these packages and he might sit it out if there is no official merger. If there is maybe cable will outbid the new entity. I would not make authoritative pronouncements.

But I think the original question was about all services not locals or sports.

[James_F]

I'm not sure the NFL even wants to be on cable. I think that would open a can of worms with the locals... I'd assume they'd want to remain on DBS and DirecTV/Ecostar will do what it takes to keep them, or lose people like me who will go where the package is... :shrug:

[Brian Rector]

If Dish kept adding channels until the merger is complete, such as PBS Kids, TRIO, Newsworld International, etc...the transition wouldnt even be noticeable.

Dish will keep the Sunday Ticket. However, the people who want the package will have to pay a higher price since Charlie wouldnt want to pass the costs to the other subscribers who do not subscribe. There will be many who will pay extra to have the bragging rights to all those football games. When you think of how much it costs per person to go to a football game in person, the extra money per year is still a big bargain.

[Nick]

Geronimo said...I would not amke authoritative pronouncements"

Nor have you.

[Geronimo]

Thanks Nick I guess. :shrug:

[Richard King]

However, the people who want the package will have to pay a higher price since Charlie wouldnt want to pass the costs to the other subscribers who do not subscribe.
I don't think there would be a price increase unless the NFL raised their costs to the merged company. The problem with raising the price to cover the costs of the package is that once you raise the price enough customers may balk (excuse the baseball term in a football thread) at taking the package that they actually bring in less than they would if they left pricing alone.

[jrjcd]

james, the problem is this-IF the merger happens, expect to purchasing your bud because everyone assumes that charlie and E* will be making decisions that makes sense...

Understand this-typical, sensible marketing strategies are baseless in a conversation concerning the actions of E*...

1.) Charlie promises he will serve all 210(my bad-operating out of memory) DMAs if the merger goes thru-probability-charlie will welsh on that promise because he doesn't want to deal with 260 DMAs representing (what?)around 2000 different local stations, regardless if the technology is up or whatever-why?he doesn't need to anymore-no competition...

2.)charlie drops the contracts to NFL, MLB, NBA, etc because the organizations want too much money and Charlie won't spend it-The sports organizations don't bend because they like the money they got from past contracts with DTV-result-no more big sports packages on dbs-unless you're willing to put a bud up in the backyard, too bad for you...once again, the fruits of no competition...Alternative scenario-no competition, sports package prices ZOOM above the $250 ( or higher) mark per season, cause charlie never loses when it comes to money-not enough subscribers to justify it???fine with charlie-doesn't want it anyway...probably only deal on sports packages is college football, with heavy rotation of tennessee games-lol

3. niche channels-get in line or get off the air-E* doesn't like anything disney owned and operated just to give you an idea-once again-no competition

4. new channels-well, if the price is right-charlie likes porn and shopping channels because he gets a nice kickback on those-loves bowflex too...but if new channels that want to be on satellite don't meet charlie's price, too bad-once again, no competition

Now for all those who have swallowed hook, line and sinker that MYTH that cable is dbs's true competition, just wait to see what happens after the merger-in fact, once charlie has his way on the dbs front, don't be surprised should he turn a hungry eye towards various cable entities...

btw-charlie will STILL get new subs by the droves because, unless they have deep pockets and don't mind the limitations of c band, there wiull be only one game in town-once again, no competition...

[James_F]

Thanks for cheering me up! :D

[jrjcd]

there's the real world...and then there's charlie's world...

[James_F]

Cult of personality then huh?

[jrjcd]

well, he's certainly a legend in his own mind

(and i would congrats you on reaching 1500 posts, but that would only open a whole new can of worms, so i won't even bring it up...)

[Richard King]

1.) Charlie promises he will serve all 260 DMAs if the merger goes thru
It's 210 DMA's.
2.)charlie drops the contracts to NFL, MLB, NBA, etc You are beginning to sound like one of those who keeps unjustly claiming that Charlie won't put them on because he doesn't like sports.
Alternative scenario-no competition, sports package prices ZOOM above the $250and meet with a strike by the consumer and make even less than he would if he left prices alone. I think the max profit price is somewhere in the neighborhood where it is right now. I am sure DTV had many studies done before they set pricing on the packages. Lots of unsubstantiated speculation.
3. niche channels-get in line or get off the air-E* doesn't like anything disney owned and operated just to give you an idea-once again-no competitionYou are sounding like the Charlie doesn't like sports crowd again. I don't like much that Disney puts up at the moment now either though and think it would be best if some of the crap is removed. Disney crap (along with Nic) is simply turning into MTV in training.

Thanks for cheering me up!Ignore him, he is one of the many Charlie haters and nothing stated above is based on fact, simply unsubstantiated speculation.

[jrjcd]

with charlie, until he does it, you can only act on "unsubstantiated speculation"-however, i do base my speculation on severals years as both a subscriber AND a dealer...

but accepting him at his word prior to seeing any real action on his part is not basing anything on "fact" either...

but i "base" a lot of what i "speculate" on comments he has made in the past concerning some of these topics-

FACT-he DOESN'T like the high cost of the ticket and DOESN'T think it impacts subscriber aquisition so much so that he has to have it at any cost(something DTV didn't have a problem doing)*

FACT-he doesn't like mickey mousing around with the various local affiliates(you think it was only bandwidth concerns that he fought against must carry???)in the myriad of contracts the company has to keep up with or the different idiocies the affiliate owners try to heap on him(i'll sign my abc affiliate with you if you also carry my mom's knitting circle independant channel also)

also, yer partially right-i don't hate charlie, but regardless of the strides he's made from when he started in the c band business, there's just not a whole lot to admire about the man-he prevaricates and he lies on a regular basis, and unless he can turn a dollar on it OR if he's forced into a corner to provide it, you won't see channels on E* just because you asked for it...

[Jacob S]

Charlie's World is like Bobby's World, j/k.

Anyways there will be good and bad things about this merger, thats a given, the question is will the good outweigh the bad?

Just look at how long it took Primestar subs switched out. It may not take as long per sub seeing how many installers and retailers there are now but still it would take about twice as long unless we use the same mount and just reposition the dish and use the same wire, which would keep costs down. Also if they would use one standard for locals in certain areas at first at least, then everyone would have locals all at once without having to add more satellites by putting 105 on Dish, 105 on Direct (having more space for locals since there would be no more duplication, if they could automatically take away some of that duplication right off the bat, not sure how this could be done. How about switching over the customers with certain channels first that would be taken off of DirecTv to prevent duplication that would only be shown on Dish, or vice versa, depending on which service would actually be used.

[DeadlyYoink]

If this merger does go though will people have to buy a new receiver. I have a dish pro 301 and if the merger goes though will I have to get a direct tv receiver?

[Jacob S]

You would not have to BUY the receiver, they will do it free of charge.

[BrettR]

Originally posted by James_F
I'm not sure the NFL even wants to be on cable. I think that would open a can of worms with the locals... I'd assume they'd want to remain on DBS and DirecTV/Ecostar will do what it takes to keep them, or lose people like me who will go where the package is... :shrug:

There will be over 18 million satellite subscribers, more than the number of InDemand digital cable subscribers.

[Geronimo]

No one knows what standard will be used. It may be DiSH's, DTV's or a third.

[Jacob S]

It may even be both. I figure some customers will actually buy the system in which will be swapped over to in order to get the best thing sooner.

[Greg Bimson]

AJ2086 wrote right at the beginning:How long will it possibly take for E* customers to see channels that were only on D* and vice versa? Will it happen instantly? Or will it take like a month, a year, or more?As far as the cable networks are concerned, I think it may take a year or so to see channels duplicated from one platform to another.

Remember, Charlie mentioned that subscribers maintaining the same level of programming, but needing equipment switched, will have their equipment switched free of charge.

So, for Dish Network people in the New York DMA that want the YES network, they will probably have to switch to DirecTV out of their own pocket, since it isn't the same level of programming.

And, don't forget, once the merger goes thru, you'll probably no longer be a new subscriber to either provider. Also, the boxes at that point are to be dual-speak, meaning they can receive either Dish Network or DirecTV. Therefore, no subsidized equipment for you. :)

Don't take this as gospel, but it only makes sense. The New Echostar will want to defray costs of equipment switchouts and upgrades as much as possible. Having existing customers upgrade themselves for new programming packages and equipment is one way to put the cost back on the subscriber.

[Jacob S]

I figure that they will swap out all customers that receive certain channels first so that way they would not have to duplicate them any longer such as the foreign channels and locals, switching them over to the other brand and only making it available on that the new brand. They would keep the channels on until all subs are switched over and those that want those channels would have to be switched on over at that time. A good example may be for those that want America's Everything package. They would probably have those customers switched over first since they make them the most money. They would eventually have no premium channels duplicated as they finish all the swapping.

I am not sure if they are going to take this route to prevent duplication sooner or not, but this would also save them money by only having to pay for the programming once instead of twice during that period of time of the merger, especially seeing that it is going to take 3 years.

They may also put up FREE programming in the clear on the receivers that they choose to switch over to or offer only new channels on that new service causing those subs to pay to switch over. Those free channels themselves may not cost Dish as much as the switchover would, and would be something to entice the customer to purchase his own.

[AJ2086]

Do you think they would shuffle around the channel numbers and there transponders and move them to like a certain spot. Like all the locals get moved over to 119, 101 can have all the core programming and 110 can be just for HDTV. This way they could use the D* elipticl dishes and just go out and upgrade the E* subs or those who have Dish500 dishes can just have it moved to receive these locations.

[Greg Bimson]

No, AJ, I don't think they will shuffle around the channel numbers and their transponders.

Once the merger is complete, and the stock of DirecTV and Dish Network equipment finishes running thru the sales channels, the New Echostar will be selling dual speak receivers (capable of seeing both DirecTV and Dish Network) and installing the three slot elliptical dish, to see all three CONUS slots.

The approximately 1.2 to 1.3 million Dish Network customers that are only receiving from 119 also need to be upgraded to Dish500's. This would be so that Dish Network can shift core programming around from the 119 to the 110 slot, and vice-versa.

The New Echostar will then prioritize the duplicative programming they wish to consolidate and move. This will entail switching HD, foreign, and selected locals to a single system.

They just haven't decided which system to use. So, at this point, for the next couple of years, they'll use both. And the core services of both DirecTV and Dish Network will be separate for the next couple of years.

[Jacob S]

I figure that they could have all locals on the side slots and the core on the main slot, and since 110 is the center slot for both providers that will probably be used for the core, and 101, 61.5 for east coast, 119, 148 for the west coast, or something like this. This would allow some with dish 500's or a two slot dish to still be able to receive all services.

[Mike123abc]

I bet they move most locals to 110 and 101 and move most national to 119. Since 119 is shared by both companies now they can first change all the one sat people to multisat dishes to get them to 119 if they do not have it now. Given they have been pushing multisat dishes for quite a while now, they probably have a small base of people that do not have one.

Then they could put all the national for both systems on 119. They could have 16 transponders for each system on it while they work on the rest of the sats. With the 16 on 119 and 8 or so on 110 (E*) and 101 (D*) for each system, they could carry full national for both and have 24 transponders on 110 and 101 to play the local shuffle.

Then they go through each market and replace the boxes with the new system. Once the market is converted its duplicate LILs could be turned off and reused.

It will be quite a juggling act. I expect the computers at lyngsat.com to explode with the number of updates they will probably have to do every day.

[Jacob S]

It would not have to be done everyday by lyngsat.com but would have to be done often enough. Also remember that they promised a certain number of locals to be added each year before all of the receivers are going to even be replaced. They would have to do this by swapping the customers over each DMA at a time. If this is done then there will be a great rush to get each DMA to be swapped over, even if several DMA's are done at the same time. This means that there would be others to come in to do the swapouts such as DNSC other than the retailers that had put them in. There would be a time limit to have all customers swapped out.

[Mike123abc]

Any one know if there is a way to transmit in a way that both systems could decode at this time? I realize it would probably have to be in the clear since the differ on encryption standards.

Do they use a different digital standard that they do not have any common way to send out a signal?

If they had a way to send a common signal it would help in the transition a lot if they could put all the unimportant (if seen without paying) channels in the clear and share them (like the public interest channels, and shopping channels). They could probably even arrange for a "free preview" that lasts for a couple years of some less popular channels that might want to try to build an audience. Or maybe some channels that just want to reach as many viewers as possible that do not scramble C-band.

If they could get 5-8 transponders freed up with "free" sat channels (probably get 2-3 realistically), it would really help the transponder shuffling.

[Chris Freeland]

Originally posted by Greg Bimson
No, AJ, I don't think they will shuffle around the channel numbers and their transponders.

Once the merger is complete, and the stock of DirecTV and Dish Network equipment finishes running thru the sales channels, the New Echostar will be selling dual speak receivers (capable of seeing both DirecTV and Dish Network) and installing the three slot elliptical dish, to see all three CONUS slots.

The approximately 1.2 to 1.3 million Dish Network customers that are only receiving from 119 also need to be upgraded to Dish500's. This would be so that Dish Network can shift core programming around from the 119 to the 110 slot, and vice-versa.

The New Echostar will then prioritize the duplicative programming they wish to consolidate and move. This will entail switching HD, foreign, and selected locals to a single system.

They just haven't decided which system to use. So, at this point, for the next couple of years, they'll use both. And the core services of both DirecTV and Dish Network will be separate for the next couple of years.

I agree for the most part, however since most of the channels in the two providers current basic and premium programing packages duplicate each other already, I think the marketing people will come up with consolidated programing packages fairly soon after the merger, some channels will simply be available in DSS format only, some will be in DVB format only and most will be in both formats. Until the New E* consolidates platforms all new subs will get new duel-speak IRD's with three slot dishes which will give them access to all channels in both formats on all three conus locations. Current subs who do not want to wait for equipment consolidation and a possible free equipment upgrade will need to upgrade at their own expense. Another option for current subs that already own a dish or dishes for all three spots and already own IRD's from both E* and D* likely could activate both and pay for single set of packages and only pay the customary $4.99 mirror fee for each extra IRD, no matter what the format.

Locals will be on all three conus locations because the current D* spotbeam bird is already on 101, The E7 Spotbeam bird is already on 119 and E8 going up on Tuesday is going to 110, D* already has a another spotbeam bird planned for 119 and the proposed New E1 is planned for 110. If I am not mistaken it would be difficult at best to change the locations of these birds.

I think that the first subs to get switched to a single platform will be the Spanish package subs and they will go to 119 with most E* core going to 110, this will open up some bandwidth fairly quickly. Next I believe will be markets where both D* and E* currently provides local service, a few markets at a time they will shutdown the losing format and switch over their subs. Next will be subs with locals only in the losing format. Once all local services are on on a single platform all core National channels will be consolidated. If the surviving format is DSS then the International channels will be last to convert because none of them are duplicated and they are on the wing birds anyway, it would not make sense to convert them until last if at all.

[Jacob S]

Well said, I believe this would be done like this. They would only add locals to the new service and those wanting the locals will have to upgrade at their own expense. Seeing that the receiver would cost as much as what a dish would, it would not be that much of an expense anyways, and they may offer a promotion to those that order a certain package for a period of 1 or 2 years for a free or reduced upgrade to switch to the other service to get their locals.

They could also really compress the signal that they are switching from even more.