Sea Launch Explosion

[lwilli201]

I was just watching Sea Launch live and the rocket exploded on the launcher. It went to black real quick.

[lwilli201]

It was NOT a Directv Satallite on board. Thank goodness.

[ajwillys]

For real? You are the first person to report this. I can't find it anywhere on the news.

[morgantown]

Not yet April 1st, but I don't think either of the next two launches are via Sea Launch anyways... (could be the second one though).

[wmschultz]

Where did you see it?

[FrankD1]

I didn't see it, but if you go to the SeaLaunch website to watch the streaming video, it says coverage ended due to anomoly

[Jeremy W]

This is true: http://www.spaceflightnow.com/sealaunch/nss8/status.html
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/sealaunch/nss8/images/explosion.jpg

[lwilli201]

Directv 11 is contracted to go up from Sea Launch. This may delay that. I hope no one was on the launch platform.

[RAD]

Holy sh*t, this has got to put a bit of a crimp in D*'s schedule. DANG!

I like how Sea Launch discribed it on their web site:

"The Sea Launch Zenit-3SL vehicle, carrying the NSS-8 satellite, experienced an anomaly today during launch operations. Sea Launch will establish a Failure Review Oversight Board to determine the root cause of this anomaly."

That was one heck of an anomaly.

[lwilli201]

Directv 10 will be a land launch. It should go as planned but exact date is not been announced yet.

[Jeremy W]

I hope no one was on the launch platform.
There was definitely no one on the launch platform.

[RAD]

Directv 10 will be a land launch. It should go as planned but exact date is not been announced yet.

Yea, but I would think the investigation will end up taking months to determine the cause of the failure and make any necessary corrections, which would push D11 launch probably to late 2007 and turn over in 2008 (just a SWAG). Would they be able to find space somewhere else to get D11 up in 2007, I would again guess that their schedules are probably all book well ahead of time.

[morgantown]

Yea, but I would think the investigation will end up taking months to determine the cause of the failure and make any necessary corrections, which would push D11 launch probably to late 2007 and turn over in 2008 (just a SWAG). Would they be able to find space somewhere else to get D11 up in 2007, I would again guess that their schedules are probably all book well ahead of time.

Yea, getting a sat rescheduled is not as simple as rescheduling a dentist appointment. This should give a "fair" amount of lead time though... Let's just hope the capacity of D10 can be shifted to the national channels and leave the rest (LIL's) to a future sat.

[lwilli201]

It will be a balancing act for D*. There will be those that will be unhappy.

[Tom Robertson]

Alas, D11 is (was) scheduled to launch on the exact same configuration in June/July: Zenit 3SL.

I have no idea what Sea-Launch's review board cycle looks like, perhaps I'll find something soon.

Edit: the last failure in March 2000 was followed by a successful launch in July 2000. Lets hope this review (and rebuild of the launcher) can be as quick.

Cheers,
Tom

[harsh]

Not yet April 1st, but I don't think either of the next two launches are via Sea Launch anyways... (could be the second one though).DirecTV 11 appears to be slated for Sea Launch, but it doesn't seem entirely certain if you read any of the propaganda over at ILS.

[morgantown]

It will be a balancing act for D*. There will be those that will be unhappy.

You are 100% correct.

[veryoldschool]

Holy sh*t...That was one heck of an anomaly.
Do you remember 20+ years ago with NASA & the challenger? About the same statement as the pieces came falling down.....

[Tom Robertson]

Directv 11 is contracted to go up from Sea Launch. This may delay that. I hope no one was on the launch platform.

There was definitely no one on the launch platform.

Just to confirm: Spaceflightnow reports:
"All personnel are safe and accounted for," Sea Launch says in a statement.

The platform is cleared of all workers before the rocket is fueled up. The launch team is stationed aboard the command ship three miles away.

There has been no official word on the extent of damage to the launch platform.

Thank goodness,
Tom

[the-real]

wow, im glad noone got hurt. that wouldve been a disaster.

[Jeremy W]

wow, im glad noone got hurt. that wouldve been a disaster.
That's why they leave the launch platform before fueling begins.

[lwilli201]

How important is it that D* has a spare if one gets destroyed. It takes about 2 years to build one of these sats.

[Tom Robertson]

How important is it that D* has a spare if one gets destroyed. It takes about 2 years to build one of these sats.

Adding to what you've said: IIRC, Boeings current contracts with D* (and others?) is such that the satellite is owned by Boeing until successful turnover in space. Even so, having D12 in Boeing's construction schedule has to help should something happen.

Cheers,
Tom

[moonman]

I wonder how much damage was done to the ship? The live web-cam has gone dead with the explosion...and I presume the future launch sked. will be in limbo?
http://www.navigon.net/sl/

[lwilli201]

According to the Boeing web site the Directv sats are delivered on the ground (DOG) They do hand over some in orbit (DIO). Here is the web site.

http://www.boeing.com/defense-space/space/bss/launch/launch_sched.html

[moonman]

According to the Boeing web site the Directv sats are delivered on the ground (DOG) They do hand over some in orbit (DIO). I will post the link.
-----------------
For what it's worth, Boeing has not yet delivered the Sat. to SeaLaunch,
which is a good thing considering...ILS has a option for a additional launch
with D*...it may get used depending on the damage done.

[HDTVsportsfan]

That's why they leave the launch platform before fueling begins.

So is this obvious? That the accident occurred during fueling and not liftoff? To me that's a big difference.

[employee3]

2345 GMT (6:45 p.m. EST)

There is no immediate word from Sea Launch on the condition of the Odyssey launch platform. The rocket exploded as it was trying to lift off from the converted Norwegian oil-drilling platform.

So is this obvious? That the accident occurred during fueling and not liftoff? To me that's a big difference.

[lwilli201]

So is this obvious? That the accident occurred during fueling and not liftoff? To me that's a big difference.

It exploded on engine start up. The countdown was 0

[Smthkd]

Here's the vid I made for those that want to see it!: http://s107.photobucket.com/albums/m313/Smthkd/?action=view&current=NSSExplosion.flv

[HDTVsportsfan]

It exploded on engine start up. The countdown was 0


Crap..That sucks. That certainly is one of the worst case scenarios.

[HDTVsportsfan]

WOW. It looked like it just collapsed from the bottom.

[DCSholtis]

Here's the vid I made for those that want to see it!: http://s107.photobucket.com/albums/m313/Smthkd/?action=view&current=NSSExplosion.flv

DAMN that looked scary. Reminded me alot of Challenger in some ways.

[cneth]

Yeah. Looked like maybe the first stage tank had a failure and the whole thing just collapsed.

ILS does have some ability to move launches around, but not sure if their other launchers have the performance to launch the DirecTV sat - it is probably a big one.

Craig

[James Long]

Do you remember 20+ years ago with NASA & the challenger? About the same statement as the pieces came falling down....."Obviously a major malfunction ..."

Wow. I don't believe the last failure blew up on the platform ... it may take more than a few months to get back to "operational".

There are usually backup plans for launch - contingency agreements that say if one launch company can't deliver another will fit the launch into their schedule. The launch companies work together for these "contingencies".

[lwilli201]

WOW. It looked like it just collapsed from the bottom.

You are correct. It did not lift at all. I wonder if the clamps did not release.

[Earl Bonovich]

Well... I have already heard from some of my contacts...
As you would expect, this will most certainly have an impact on DirecTV's plans for the two launches this year.

But at this time, that extent of that impact is not know.
And it probably won't be known for a while...

But you most like count on it being a topic from the "investors" next week during the Quarterly conference call... so we should know some more "official" information by then.

[HDTVsportsfan]

Well... I have already heard from some of my contacts...
As you would expect, this will most certainly have an impact on DirecTV's plans for the two launches this year.

But at this time, that extent of that impact is not know.
And it probably won't be known for a while...

But you most like count on it being a topic from the "investors" next week during the Quarterly conference call... so we should know some more "official" information by then.


Grreeeaaat.

Seriolsly though, thanks for the info.

[James Long]

One reason why nearly everything a good company says is labeled a "forward looking statement" - unless something goes wrong.

Hopefully this does not affect their launches ... nor Sea Launch. It is a good company.

[lwilli201]

"Obviously a major malfunction ..."

Wow. I don't believe the last failure blew up on the platform ... it may take more than a few months to get back to "operational".

There are usually backup plans for launch - contingency agreements that say if one launch company can't deliver another will fit the launch into their schedule. The launch companies work together for these "contingencies".

I hope that is the case. Sea Launch had 7 launches planned for 2007. This will put more than just the D* sats behind schedule. (Sea Launch also does some land launches. Not sure if the 7 includes any land launches)

[purtman]

Here's the vid I made for those that want to see it!: http://s107.photobucket.com/albums/m313/Smthkd/?action=view&current=NSSExplosion.flv

Thanks for sharing!

[uncrules]

Man this totally sucks. All the D* haters and skeptics are going to have a field day with this. D* is going to get blamed for missing a promised deadline.

I'm very anxious to hear what this is going to do to their plans. First order of business is to stop running the Back to future commercial where they are saying they will haves 3 times as much capacity as cable by the end of the year.

[moonman]

SeaLaunch's home page has a note as to how the failure relates to D*'s
and other launches....keep in mind that sealaunch also has a land based
facility in Russia(proton rocket) which is quite capable to launch heavy
payloads...ILS which has the contract to launch Direct10 also has a option
for a additional launch with D*
http://www.sea-launch.com/
http://www.ilslaunch.com/
http://www.ilslaunch.com/zmedia/newsarchives/newsreleases/rec316/

[Smthkd]

Thanks for sharing!
Your quite Welcome!

[lwilli201]

SeaLaunch's home page has a note as to how the failure relates to D*'s
and other launches....keep in mind that sealaunch also has a land based
facility in Russia(proton rocket) which is quite capable to launch heavy
payloads...ILS which has the contract to launch Direct10 also has a option
for a additional launch with D*
http://www.sea-launch.com/
http://www.ilslaunch.com/
http://www.ilslaunch.com/zmedia/newsarchives/newsreleases/rec316/

It would be interesting to know what the window is for that optional launch.

[wilbur_the_goose]

I wonder how soon D* will pull their TV commercial promising "Lots more HD - more than cable - coming SOON"..

It's a shame, but that's why well run company plan for this type of thing. This could even affect the DirecTV buyout if it's not handled well. Not good for D* customers or shareholders.

Be sure to check stock prices tomorrow for DirecTV and Comcast... I'll bet Comcast is up and D* down. Wall Street doesn't like this sort of thing.

[moonman]

It would be interesting to know what the window is for that optional launch.

-------------
I have a feeling that D* will be very tight lipped with ANY info on launches
given this development..would not be surprised if all those "back to the future" commercials suddenly ended!!

[Earl Bonovich]

I wonder how soon D* will pull their TV commercial promising "Lots more HD - more than cable - coming SOON"..

It's a shame, but that's why well run company plan for this type of thing. This could even affect the DirecTV buyout if it's not handled well. Not good for D* customers or shareholders.

Why?

Their first SAT wasn't planned for SeaLaunch anyway... it was the second that was.

Between now and then a lot of things can change.

Plus.. even with just 1 of the SAT's they can provide a LOT of HD content... maybe not the "capacity" by years end...

but even if both go up... there still won't be 150 HD networks by years end...

[Tom Robertson]

I wonder how soon D* will pull their TV commercial promising "Lots more HD - more than cable - coming SOON"..

It's a shame, but that's why well run company plan for this type of thing. This could even affect the DirecTV buyout if it's not handled well. Not good for D* customers or shareholders.

I'm sorry, but it sounds like you feel Directv has not planned for this. If so, I disagree. They've contracted optional extra launch slots, they picked multiple launch facilities, and they have a third bird in the oven. Plus, who knows what other backup strategies they might have.

Will this affect their schedule, you bet--but will that significantly affect the end results to consumers? Or will there be people pulling long hours to shift the project plans to launch on time?

Cheers,
Tom

[lwilli201]

Why?

Their first SAT wasn't planned for SeaLaunch anyway... it was the second that was.

Between now and then a lot of things can change.

Plus.. even with just 1 of the SAT's they can provide a LOT of HD content... maybe not the "capacity" by years end...

but even if both go up... there still won't be 150 HD networks by years end...

Earl, this is the stuff the Doom and Gloom bunch live for.

[Red Dwarf]

So what satellite was the rocket?

[wilbur_the_goose]

well - the Dutch company won't be able to put their "spare" in orbit until 2009, according to the AP report I just read. Obviously, DirecTV needs two birds to meet their strategic goals. Right now, Sea Launch will most certainly be down for quite a while - believe me, if nothing else, the insurers will not let another bird fly until they're 100% certain their investment is sound.

If you look at SES New Skies' website, you can see just how important this bird was to them - just like DirecTV's are important.

Believe me, I WANT to see D* launch soon. But I just don't think it'll happen now - it's not in their shareholders' best interests.

Of course, this all becomes moot if a true root cause of the malfunction is found and properly mitigated.

[La Push Commercial Codman]

Verizon might be the one out. I haven't had time to look into how it happen. The Cellaur providers were planing to launch communication satellites to provide better cell phone service. Verizon satellite cell phone, project put on hold. schedule launch of operation would be sometime around 2010 year. I wonder if this puts company on hold Direct and Dish may see there delay. Sea launch was used to launch most of GPS satellites, I bet.

[lwilli201]

I read it cost about $300 million to build, launch and insure a Boeing 702 sat. Not chump change.

[Tom Robertson]

Yes, SES New Skies will not launch until 2009. They didn't have a spare in the pipeline. So I might agree that they were not a "well run company" in your terms.

But how does this apply to D*? D* has several launch windows on two carriers. N+1 birds. Last Sea Launch Review was quick enough that D11 could still launch on Sea Launch on time... D10 isn't launching on Sea Launch at all...

The glass is always full. How much is beer and how much is air is the question...
Tom

[La Push Commercial Codman]

:) Good thing xm satellite radio got there bird up. Sea Launch will be delay, but rest assure, a launch from land is possible. Cell phone providers have put there millions of dollars on communication satellites. Nationwide cell phone by satellite is coming. I maybe a delay on Sea Launch, but not by land.:)

[lwilli201]

Ouch, this thread has been moved into oblivion. I quess it is not relevent to D*. It only got over 1300 hits in 5 hours.

[Earl Bonovich]

Sea Launch is just one of MANY private SAT launch companies out there.

No doubt they are all going to take a deep breath, and maybe delay their "next" launches to do some extra checks and stuff like that... but the entire industry is not going to shut down because one launch company had an issue.

If ANYTHING this goes to show, that these launches are NOT routine and really are "rocket science". You can be sure DirecTV will make the necessary adjustments and most certainly had "plans" in place, in case of something like this happened.

So let's all take a step back from the cliff... and just wait to see how things shake out.

[Earl Bonovich]

Ouch, this thread has been moved into oblivion. I quess it is not relevent to D*.

It is relevant to D*, probably more so then any of the other areas we cover here, because their 2nd SAT this year is scheduled to use SeaLaunch.

But it is also relavent to the "satellite" industry as whole.

[FTA Michael]

Saw the video. (Thanks!) When the countdown hit zero, the rocket went down. There's your problem - Somebody left it shifted in reverse! :)

Seriously, thank goodness no one was hurt.

[RAD]

:) Cell phone providers have put there millions of dollars on communication satellites. Nationwide cell phone by satellite is coming.

How/where did you come up with this? Don't you remember Motorola tried this and failed (Iridium), and end up selling it for a big loss, and that was using LEO satelittes to cut down on propagation delay.

[Richard King]

0050 GMT (7:50 p.m. EST Tues.)

Sea Launch had planned to conduct six commercial satellite deployment missions in 2007, with today's flight being the first. The schedule included the Thuraya 3 mobile communications satellite, direct-to-home broadcasting spacecraft for DirecTV and EchoStar, plus the Spaceway 3 broadband satellite and Galaxy 19 for Intelsat.

Obviously, it is too soon to know when Sea Launch will be able to resume flights. It is relavent to BOTH Directv AND Dish and could delay BOTH

[cneth]

Sea launch was used to launch most of GPS satellites, I bet.

Nope. None of them. The GPS satellites are all in polar, low earth orbits. Comm sats are all in Geosychronous orbit. (i.e. appear to be fixed in space above a certain point on the earth). Most of the GPS sats were launched on Delta rockets from the Cape or Vandenburg.

Sea Launch is designed to do one thing - get a lot of mass efficiently into geosych orbit. That's why the have the floating platform - they can launch right from the Equator and so don't have to spend energy changing the orbit. So they can use a relatively smaller rocket to get a bit sat into geo than other solutions.

You can how much difference it makes where you launch from if you look at the 'land launch' part of the Sea-Launch site - they can only put 3600 kg into GTO (Geosync Transfer Orbit) if they launch in Russia - but if they launch the same rocket from the equator, they can put 10,000kg into the same orbit. (Actually, the land launch rocket is bigger - it has a third stage, and it still has only 1/3 the performance of the Sea Launch system). This is also why Ariane built the launch site in South America - to get as close to the equator as possible...

Craig

[RAD]

I would have to guess that this explosion would have caused a lot more damage then if it was land based to the support structure. From what I've seen on ground base launches they move most of the support structures out of the way before launch. On the SeaLaunch platform there's not a lot or room to move stuff out of the way.

[lwilli201]

Nope. None of them. The GPS satellites are all in polar, low earth orbits. Comm sats are all in Geosychronous orbit. (i.e. appear to be fixed in space above a certain point on the earth). Most of the GPS sats were launched on Delta rockets from the Cape or Vandenburg.

Sea Launch is designed to do one thing - get a lot of mass efficiently into geosych orbit. That's why the have the floating platform - they can launch right from the Equator and so don't have to spend energy changing the orbit. So they can use a relatively smaller rocket to get a bit sat into geo than other solutions.

You can how much difference it makes where you launch from if you look at the 'land launch' part of the Sea-Launch site - they can only put 3600 kg into GTO (Geosync Transfer Orbit) if they launch in Russia - but if they launch the same rocket from the equator, they can put 10,000kg into the same orbit. (Actually, the land launch rocket is bigger - it has a third stage, and it still has only 1/3 the performance of the Sea Launch system). This is also why Ariane built the launch site in South America - to get as close to the equator as possible...

Craig
Can the Ariane carry a sat the size of the 702. All the Boeing 702 sats not being launched by the Air Force are being scheduled on the Zinit 3 or Proton launch vehicles. I am thinking that all the launch companies out there can't carry the weight of the 702.

[Hutchinshouse]

Not much more to say....

[Tom Robertson]

Can the Ariane carry a sat the size of the 702. All the Boeing 702 sats not being launched by the Air Force are being scheduled on the Zinit 3 or Proton launch vehicles. I am thinking that all the launch companies out there can't carry the weight of the 702.

Good question. I had to double check to be sure, but Ariane launched S2 AND TeleKom2 in November 2005. I'm not sure if launch delays are why D* decided not to use them again this year, or if something else.

That said, perhaps they might be a backup option should Sea-Launch be delayed too long.

Cheers,
Tom

[lwilli201]

Im sure that all the launch companies which are capable of launching the 702 sat are booked well into the future. Even if Sea Launch has a long down time, they probably will be able to get D 11 up before anyone else. Another company is not going to bump any other sats for a D* sat.

[Tom Robertson]

Im sure that all the launch companies which are capable of launching the 702 sat are booked well into the future. Even if Sea Launch has a long down time, they probably will be able to get D 11 up before anyone else. Another company is not going to bump any other sats for a D* sat.

I guess all depends on how "full" the various companies schedules are and how much they help each other out. The might not bump a launch for D*, but they might adjust slightly and slip D* in. You know they all want to show how flexible they can be, and accommodate D* just to get more business from D* and others.

And I thought this was gonna be an interesting spring and summer before...
Cheers,
Tom

[sunking]

Sea Launch is just one of MANY private SAT launch companies out there.

No doubt they are all going to take a deep breath, and maybe delay their "next" launches to do some extra checks and stuff like that... but the entire industry is not going to shut down because one launch company had an issue.

If ANYTHING this goes to show, that these launches are NOT routine and really are "rocket science". You can be sure DirecTV will make the necessary adjustments and most certainly had "plans" in place, in case of something like this happened.

So let's all take a step back from the cliff... and just wait to see how things shake out.

Umm....MANY is really a bit of an overstatement. If you could name 4 private companies worth capable of lifing this I'd be surprised. It seems to me that for the most part only Sea Launch and the Russians (Proton) have been used to put the 702 into orbit. Doesn't really bode well when you lose 50% of your launch sites for who knows how long. Don't forget that everything scheduled for probably the next year at least are scrambling to find an alternate launch vehicle. Other than having their sat lost this is about as bad as it gets. Wouldn't surprise me if they can't find something else for up to 2 years. The fact of the matter is that there AREN'T that many ways to get these things up. Depending on the damabe, they may be better off just to wait it out for SL, hoping that some of the schedules flight before them bale.


That being said, it's just TV :)

[Herdfan]

Can the Ariane carry a sat the size of the 702.
Yes. They launched Spaceway 2 plus Telkom2 on their Ariane 5 ECA rocket. So they can easily do a 702.

[La Push Commercial Codman]

Well So, phone's were getting into this phase, to compete, since it was a motorola satellite or Zenit satellite, maybe they did not start. Fringe area's around washington state and high terrains, will delay Verizon and other's maybe. Coverage would be good. Verizon told me about it and I read about it from Telco site. They wanted to provide better coverage with Fios cell towers and Verizon satellite cell phone. Numerous people were complaining of dropped calls..

I hope thus company, launching satellite had insurance, boy will insurance man be busy with this one.

[4DThinker]

Yea, getting a sat rescheduled is not as simple as rescheduling a dentist appointment. This should give a "fair" amount of lead time though... Let's just hope the capacity of D10 can be shifted to the national channels and leave the rest (LIL's) to a future sat.
Uhm... Unless the the last dental patient exploded in the dental chair.

;-)

[Nick]

"Sea Launch will establish a Failure Review Oversight Board..."
A Failure Review Oversight Board, or FROB, is a great idea, but
perhaps it would be more appropriately referred to as a FURB. :sure:

[La Push Commercial Codman]

What exploded was a IPTV satellite? According to Sky Report. Correct me. I just betcha Dish, DirecTV, Sirius, xm, Verizon, Cingler and others better have insurance, or you have sour apple's instead.

I betcha, salt air got to the Sea Launch ramp, in Long Beach, and see the Satellite rocket go dive into ramp and exploded, meaning something gave.. either rusted supports or a defective rocket..

[sunking]

What exploded was a IPTV satellite? According to Sky Report. Correct me. I just betcha Dish, DirecTV, Sirius, xm, Verizon, Cingler and others better have insurance, or you have sour apple's instead.

I betcha, salt air got to the Sea Launch ramp, in Long Beach, and see the Satellite rocket go dive into ramp and exploded, meaning something gave.. either rusted supports or a defective rocket..

These companies don't pay cash out of their own pockets to buy these things even if they did they would still insure them. Anyone investing that kind of cash requires insurance, especially on something where the rate of fairly is a fairly high ~5%. A quick search shows that insurance prices can be up to 20% the value of the sat. That ain't chump change. You also have to continue to carry insurance through the life, afterall what happens if your sat that is expected to last 10 years only lasts 2. Over a 10 year life can be another 20% of the value.

I'm sure the sea launch people never thought of salty air and rust. What do you think they are, rocket scientists?

[Tom Robertson]

Umm....MANY is really a bit of an overstatement. If you could name 4 private companies worth capable of lifing this I'd be surprised.

Ok, I can't name many, but I can do 4: ILS, Sea-Launch, Ariane, and United Launch Alliance can all do Boeing 702 from as many as 5 launch sites.

Cheers,
Tom

[sbcale]

Here's the vid I made for those that want to see it!: http://s107.photobucket.com/albums/m313/Smthkd/?action=view&current=NSSExplosion.flv

Thanks for the video, it is very interesting to actually see it.

[ToddD]

Ok, I can't name many, but I can do 4: ILS, Sea-Launch, Ariane, and United Launch Alliance can all do Boeing 702 from as many as 5 launch sites.

Cheers,
Tom

United Launch Alliance can do it from two different sites right here in the USA....one of which is located right out my back window.

[Tom Robertson]

United Launch Alliance can do it from two different sites right here in the USA....one of which is located right out my back window.

That must be awesome! Until I remember how loud thems things can be. :)

Would be nice if Boeing and ULA can get their costs down to match the rest of the industry.

Cheers,
Tom

[James Long]

You also have to continue to carry insurance through the life, afterall what happens if your sat that is expected to last 10 years only lasts 2. Over a 10 year life can be another 20% of the value.Larger companies can self insure. If it is going to cost 20% of the price of a satellite to insure it and a company has 10 satellites they have just bought 12 satellites if they are paying a 20% insurance rate. And what percentage of satellites fail? If it is less than 20% then the satellite company is losing money. It is cheaper for them to write off the occasional failure than to insure a large fleet.

Self insurance is very popular with large companies in general. Small companies need insurance and for them it is cheaper to pay even 20% than pay 100% for a replacement. Or risk going out of business if there is a failure.

I'm sure the launch was insured, and the launches of D* and E* satellites as well. But once the satellite is safely in orbit and tested the next stage begins and it is quite possible that "self insurance" takes over.

As far as the "we have a loan on it so we must keep it insured" argument ... that applies nicely to a personal home mortgage or auto loan where the home or car is the collateral for the loan. With large corporate loans the COMPANY is the collateral. More like a personal loan than a item collateral loan.

[LameLefty]

The GPS satellites are all in polar, low earth orbits.

GPS orbits are not low by any stretch of the imagination, and they're not polar either. They are approximately 20,200 km (12,552 miles) circular orbits inclined at about 55 degrees.

[ToddD]

If ANYTHING this goes to show, that these launches are NOT routine and really are "rocket science". You can be sure DirecTV will make the necessary adjustments and most certainly had "plans" in place, in case of something like this happened.

So let's all take a step back from the cliff... and just wait to see how things shake out.

As a member of the community where the science of launching was developed, thanks for your statement that we need to remember that “rocket science” is not routine. It most certainly is not.
It’s a sad time here on the space coast to be talking about a space related failure; the end of January has not been kind to the space business. 40 years ago last Saturday (January 27) we lost three astronauts in the Apollo 1 fire. On Sunday the 28th we remembered the Challenger disaster that took 7 brave lives and tomorrow we will remember the Columbia and its great crew. This time we can be thankful that no one was lost.
As to yesterday’s events and what they will portend for us that are Satellite TV fans….This is not just a DirecTV story. Dish has a payload for set for SeaLaunch in the next few months as well.
But as to DirecTV (who is my provider) I have been very critical of them and the way they have preceded in the modernization of the system. From the design of dishes to MPEG4 encoders to the HR20 that has made this place hum as we have debated its merits, DirecTV has not come off too well and I have been right there to chime in my disapproval. So in the interest of fairness and to reward genuinely good work where I see it, I must stand up and applaud the planning that has gone into the launch of these next two satellites. I will now predict that yesterday’s events will have very little effect on the rollouts at DirecTV.
The planning they have done is great. They have slotted backup launch dates just in case something like this happened. They even have a backup satellite in production. I expect that we will see the D10 go off as planed and D11 will most likely take the backup slot that was arranged for just in case. As has been pointed out here already there are others that could offer help if needed, including Boeing, the satellites manufacture.
So all in all, while it’s sad to see this type of event, Good Show by the DirecTV people to understand what they are doing and put in place plans to protect for such events.
While I am calling out good work, I would be remiss if I left out the SeaLaunch people who were smart enough to decide that when you are launching a rocket in the middle of the ocean, you want ALL of your people 3+ miles away. Without that decision, yesterday would be a day added to the tragic events in the space business at the end of January.

[dodge boy]

That must be awesome! Until I remember how loud thems things can be. :)

Would be nice if Boeing and ULA can get their costs down to match the rest of the industry.

Cheers,
Tom


I'm sure the biggest cost difference is fuel, from lifting off in the northern hemisphere as opposed to lifting off at the equator. (where the final destination of the satellite would be.)

[Tom Robertson]

As a member of the community where the science of launching was developed, thanks for your statement that we need to remember that “rocket science” is not routine. It most certainly is not.
It’s a sad time here on the space coast to be talking about a space related failure; the end of January has not been kind to the space business. 40 years ago last Saturday (January 27) we lost three astronauts in the Apollo 1 fire. On Sunday the 28th we remembered the Challenger disaster that took 7 brave lives and tomorrow we will remember the Columbia and its great crew. This time we can be thankful that no one was lost.
As to yesterday’s events and what they will portend for us that are Satellite TV fans….This is not just a DirecTV story. Dish has a payload for set for SeaLaunch in the next few mounts as well.
But as to DirecTV (who is my provider) I have been very critical of them and the way they have preceded in the modernization of the system. From the design of dishes to MPEG4 encoders to the HR20 that has made this place hum as we have debated its merits, DirecTV has not come off too well and I have been right there to chime in my disapproval. So in the interest of fairness and to reward genuinely good work where I see it, I must stand up and applaud the planning that has gone into the launch of these next two satellites. I will now predict that yesterday’s events will have very little effect on the rollouts at DirecTV.
The planning they have done is great. They have slotted backup launch dates just in case something like this happened. They even have a backup satellite in production. I expect that we will see the D10 go off as planed and D11 will most likely take the backup slot that was arranged for just in case. As has been point out here already there are others that could offer help if needed, including Boeing, the satellites manufacture.
So all in all while it’s sad to see this type of event, Good Show by the DirecTV people to understand what they are doing and put in place plans to protect for such events.
While I am calling out good work, I would be remiss if I left out the SeaLaunch people who were smart enough to decide that when you are launching a rocket in the middle of the ocean, you want ALL of your people 3+ miles away. Without that decision, yesterday would be a day added to the tragic events in the space business at the end of January.

Well said.

[kenglish]

AFAIK, they only have (had?) the one launch platform....a refurbished North Sea oil-derrick....a semi-submersible ship, that sits partway under water for stability.

[ToddD]

AFAIK, they only have (had?) the one launch platform....a refurbished North Sea oil-derrick....a semi-submersible ship, that sits partway under water for stability.

My fear is that HAD is correct.

[dmspen]

OK, my two cents worth here...

I work for a major aerospace company. I've have built, tested, launched and flown over 25 satellites; mililtary, hush hush, commercial (echostar), scientific (Gravity Probe), weather, etc. Enough with the credentials...

There WILL be launch delays with Sea Launch. It is inevitable. Rescheduling launches is difficult and expensive. Most likely, D* and E* will stay with Sea Launch. To change your booster is not economically feasible. There are different adapter rings, different electrical interfaces, schedules to change, different transportation, the list goes on and on. It's much cheaper to be delayed by 6 months than try to retest everything for a different booster.

Regarding insurance, all satellites are insured. Most are insured for liftoff through operational handover. Handover is when the satellite is handed over from the manufacturer to the owner. This can happen at different phases of operational capability.

[Tom Robertson]

OK, my two cents worth here...

I work for a major aerospace company. I've have built, tested, launched and flown over 25 satellites; mililtary, hush hush, commercial (echostar), scientific (Gravity Probe), weather, etc. Enough with the credentials...

There WILL be launch delays with Sea Launch. It is inevitable. Rescheduling launches is difficult and expensive. Most likely, D* and E* will stay with Sea Launch. To change your booster is not economically feasible. There are different adapter rings, different electrical interfaces, schedules to change, different transportation, the list goes on and on. It's much cheaper to be delayed by 6 months than try to retest everything for a different booster.

Regarding insurance, all satellites are insured. Most are insured for liftoff through operational handover. Handover is when the satellite is handed over from the manufacturer to the owner. This can happen at different phases of operational capability.

Thanks for the insider perspective!

Question, can a switch from one launcher who uses Zenit to another be done more easily (and economically?)

Cheers,
Tom

[ApK]

There was definitely no one on the launch platform.


'Cept the guy with the match who has to light the fuse, of course.

[Tom Robertson]

'Cept the guy with the match who has to light the fuse, of course.

long, long, long fuse. 3miles of waterproof fuse is getting expensive these days :)

[agentss]

Do you remember 20+ years ago with NASA & the challenger? About the same statement as the pieces came falling down.....

I know talk about what messed up day in first grade. No wonder I watch every NASA launch live now on NASA-TV via DirecTV. I am worried what might happen but you have to watch.
-Dana

[Larry Caldwell]

Man this totally sucks. All the D* haters and skeptics are going to have a field day with this. D* is going to get blamed for missing a promised deadline.

I'm very anxious to hear what this is going to do to their plans. First order of business is to stop running the Back to future commercial where they are saying they will haves 3 times as much capacity as cable by the end of the year.

It might not be as much of a setback as you think. A few years ago, E* contracted with Arianne to launch a satellite, and the French ran into technical problems. E* just found a different truck, and put the bird into orbit on a Chinese rocket. There are a lot of outfits in the orbital delivery business nowadays. Besides the Russians, the USA, China, Japan and France have active space programs. Since the D* satellite wasn't involved in the accident, it's hard to tell what effect it will have on company plans. I'm sure they are working hard to find an alternate launch vehicle.

[Earl Bonovich]

Swani and TV Predictions has now "piped" in on the topic

http://www.tvpredictions.com/sealaunch013107.htm

[dmspen]

Thanks for the insider perspective!

Question, can a switch from one launcher who uses Zenit to another be done more easily (and economically?)

Cheers,
Tom

Technically it can be done. However, when you change launch sites, you have to change all the booster software due to a different trajectory, and perhaps the spacecraft software as well. There's also all the launch pad interfaces that change too. Most people don't realize it, but when you launch a spacecraft, an entire mechanical and test team often goes to the launch base and tests the satellite on the pad. All the documentation is written for that particular launch base. I happened to be the person who wrote the command compatibility checkout document for Echostar X with Sea Launch. To change that to Kourou, for instance, would require a complete rewrite plus complete retest of all interfaces. Also, there may be different equipment that needs interfacing as well as coordinating all the communications links. Once again, it's probably cheaper to suffer a delay, especially because Sea Launch or NSS may have to pick up the tab for a delay.

[Tom Robertson]

Technically it can be done. However, when you change launch sites, you have to change all the booster software due to a different trajectory, and perhaps the spacecraft software as well. There's also all the launch pad interfaces that change too. Most people don't realize it, but when you launch a spacecraft, an entire mechanical and test team often goes to the launch base and tests the satellite on the pad. All the documentation is written for that particular launch base. I happened to be the person who wrote the command compatibility checkout document for Echostar X with Sea Launch. To change that to Kourou, for instance, would require a complete rewrite plus complete retest of all interfaces. Also, there may be different equipment that needs interfacing as well as coordinating all the communications links. Once again, it's probably cheaper to suffer a delay, especially because Sea Launch or NSS may have to pick up the tab for a delay.

Another poster, from Sea Launch, mentioned that in an emergency, a launch could be normally done in two months. Does this estimate include the time your talking about or would there be more time too?

Thanks for sharing!
Tom

[P Smith]

I would add, there are other obstacles for quick change - different vehicles have own mechanical parameters for lock the cargo, plus new cockpit, etc.

[P Smith]

Tibber, watch that footage (http://s107.photobucket.com/albums/m313/Smthkd/?action=view&current=NSSExplosion.flv)on slow motion - you'll see how the rocket goes dive down. I would say they're lost whole launch pad :(.

[Earl Bonovich]

So does anyone know if SeaLaunch has a 2nd launch platform?

I mean they have now been around for a while... I could understand not having a 2nd command ship... but the launch platform?

With this happening... I would HIGHLY recommend what the listings on Discovery for the SeaLaunch episode (I saw it about a year ago)..

EXTREMELY informative about the history of SeaLaunch, what it is, what it does, and why it was such a "big deal".

[Larry Caldwell]

Technically it can be done. However, when you change launch sites, you have to change all the booster software due to a different trajectory, and perhaps the spacecraft software as well. There's also all the launch pad interfaces that change too. Most people don't realize it, but when you launch a spacecraft, an entire mechanical and test team often goes to the launch base and tests the satellite on the pad. All the documentation is written for that particular launch base. I happened to be the person who wrote the command compatibility checkout document for Echostar X with Sea Launch. To change that to Kourou, for instance, would require a complete rewrite plus complete retest of all interfaces. Also, there may be different equipment that needs interfacing as well as coordinating all the communications links. Once again, it's probably cheaper to suffer a delay, especially because Sea Launch or NSS may have to pick up the tab for a delay.

Didn't E* move to a different launch vehicle after the Ariane 5 explosion in 1996? I'm not in the business, but I think I remember something about this from an early Charlie Chat.

[Smthkd]

Over at NasaSpaceflight.com they are reporting that the Odyssey Launch pad has avoided critical damage! http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/

[Tom Robertson]

Tibber, watch that footage (http://s107.photobucket.com/albums/m313/Smthkd/?action=view&current=NSSExplosion.flv)on slow motion - you'll see how the rocket goes dive down. I would say they're lost whole launch pad :(.

Yeah, its scary. I just wish HDnet was there filming in HD.

BTW, I've called the Sea Launch Hotline a couple times, no news beyond the initial "we've had an anomaly, but no one was hurt."

I don't see anything in the press releases about another launch vessel--this may be the only one.

Tom

[RAD]

Tibber, watch that footage (http://s107.photobucket.com/albums/m313/Smthkd/?action=view&current=NSSExplosion.flv)on slow motion - you'll see how the rocket goes dive down. I would say they're lost whole launch pad :(.

If I remember correctly from watch a show about it, the actual rocket 'launch pad' extends out over the water, check the picture in this link to see what I mean, http://spaceflightnow.com/sealaunch/echostar10/. So hopefully most of the damage is confined to just that end of the platform which looks like it doesn't have much around it.

[jackmacokc]

I scimmed the thread, but I haven't see any word on who's sat that actually was. Has anyone reported that? I wonder who lost their goods on that launch.

[directvfreak]

Couldn't D11 just be launched on land rather than sea?

[Smthkd]

Russian Space Corporation ENERGIA is also reporting that the Odyssey Platform is not damaged serverly! See below and here's the link: http://www.energia.ru/english/

Events, news:



January 31, 2007. Sea-faring space launch facility near Christmas Island (Pacific Ocean) - Korolev.
Launch of the Zenit-3SL Integrated Launch Vehicle (manufacturer – PO Yuzhmashzavod, Ukraine) from the Odyssey Launch Platform of the Sea launch Rocket and Space Complex resulted in a failure. Within the first seconds following lift-off from the launching device, an anomaly had occurred, which led to the launch vehicle falling down from the Platform. The Launch Platform was not damaged and is suitable for further operational use.
Failure Review Oversight Board was established to determine the root cause of the failure.

[P Smith]

I'm talking about 'launch pad' specifically, not whole 'platform'.
Also, official reports never will have technical disclosure.

[Smthkd]

I'm talking about 'launch pad' specifically, not whole 'platform'.
Also, official reports never will have technical disclosure.

I wasn't responding to you! Im just providing valuable information. Besides if you read the article you will see that the its talking about the "launch pad" which in its correct terminology is the Launch Platform! You should also realize that ENERGIA is the Russian partners of Sea Launch and they "can" make "official" responses.:rolleyes:

Oh and here's the proof: http://www.energia.ru/english/energia/sea-launch/partner.html

[Tom Robertson]

I'm finding notes, nothing official (at least in english) that the flame ducts "might" have sunk with the rocket, but that should be relatively minor. But, russianspaceweb (http://www.russianspaceweb.com/) is reporting "... the damage could be serious enough to require sending the platform to one of dry docks half a world away for repairs, something partners funding the Sea Launch venture might not be able to afford. "

Again, this is too early to know for sure. Might have to go to Long Beach to determine what has to be done.

Cheers,
Tom

[ajwillys]

I scimmed the thread, but I haven't see any word on who's sat that actually was. Has anyone reported that? I wonder who lost their goods on that launch.
It was SES New Skies
http://www.newskies.com/

And the press release:
http://www.newskies.com/pressreleases_420.htm

[lwilli201]

So does anyone know if SeaLaunch has a 2nd launch platform?

I mean they have now been around for a while... I could understand not having a 2nd command ship... but the launch platform?

With this happening... I would HIGHLY recommend what the listings on Discovery for the SeaLaunch episode (I saw it about a year ago)..

EXTREMELY informative about the history of SeaLaunch, what it is, what it does, and why it was such a "big deal".

From what I understand the Odyssy is a converted oil drilling platform. There does not appear to be another one.

It can be moved out to sea for each launch. Here is a picture of the Odyssey and the support ship in the background.

http://www.boeing.com/special/sea-launch/images/s3c6h_270x188.jpg

[Earl Bonovich]

Sorry... I had the wrong network.

It was National Geogrpahics "MegaStructure" series,which had the episode on Sea Launch

http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/megastructures/episodes.html

[leww37334]

It appears that D* maybe trying to use this disaster as an excuse for putting HD on the back burner and not getting sued. This should in no way prevent the launch of Directv 10 it is ground launched and from a different rocket. Although I would say that if D* totally reneges on their commitment to HD then HD users should have sufficient justification for canceling their contracts.

[RAD]

It appears that D* maybe trying to use this disaster as an excuse for putting HD on the back burner and not getting sued. This should in no way prevent the launch of Directv 10 it is ground launched and from a different rocket. Although I would say that if D* totally reneges on their commitment to HD then HD users should have sufficient justification for canceling their contracts.


Where has D* said anything about how this will effect the HD rollout schedule for 2007???? I love it how only about 24 hours after this has happened a bunch of folks are already saying D* won't make their target. Come on, lets give the folks at D* and Boeing a chance to see what impact this will have on the plans and make an announcement before you start saying the world is ending for D*'s HD plan.

[Tom Robertson]

Where has D* said anything about how this will effect the HD rollout schedule for 2007???? I love it how only about 24 hours after this has happened a bunch of folks are already saying D* won't make their target. Come on, lets give the folks at D* and Boeing a chance to see what impact this will have on the plans and make an announcement before you start saying the world is ending for D*'s HD plan.

Thank you! Sanity :)

This just happened 25 hours ago, D* was not using SL for the next launch anyway.

As Earl said, lets all just step back from the cliff. :)

[moonman]

It appears that D* maybe trying to use this disaster as an excuse for putting HD on the back burner and not getting sued. .

--------------------
There is no basis for your statement........you forgot to add "IMO" to it!

[nikwax]

hey, lighten up you guys:


Americans Demand Military Response After Chinese Shoot Down DirecTV Satellite (http://www.theonion.com/content/news_briefs/americans_demand_military)



!rolling

[mhayes70]

I think most of you guys are freakin out about nothing. Like the last couple of post has said, Directv has said nothing about delaying the HD channels due to this. D10 should not be affected by this because it is being launched on land and by a different company. D11 could be delayed but no one has said that yet. Even if it is delayed there still is plenty of room on D10 to get what networks have been anounced to be aired when D10 is launched.

[geoliquid]

DIRECTV Says Rocket Blast Won't Impact HDTV Plans (http://www.tvpredictions.com/dtvrocket013107.htm)

[RAD]

DIRECTV Says Rocket Blast Won't Impact HDTV Plans (http://www.tvpredictions.com/dtvrocket013107.htm)


Link or a SWAG?

[geoliquid]

Link or a SWAG?
sorry for not being current with the lingo but what is SWAG? :confused:

[Jeremy W]

sorry for not being current with the lingo but what is SWAG? :confused:
Silly wild-assed guess.

[geoliquid]

Silly wild-assed guess.

I linked the article quoting DIRECTV spokesman Robert Mercer. no SWAG on my part.

[RAD]

I linked the article quoting DIRECTV spokesman Robert Mercer. no SWAG on my part.

Sorry, that line didn't look like a link to another page.

[planomateo]

houston, we have a problem.

[Win Joy Jr]

Yes, it has only been 24 hours, but consider the following:

1. The last SeaLaunch failure was NOT a launch pad failure, but a launch vehicle failure to deliver the payload to orbit. This time, they will have to look at both the launch platform and the vehicle. Longer duration for the review board.

2. Moving D11 to another launch platform is not an easy thing. D11 is designed to be integrated to the SeaLaunch launch vehicle. To change now would require the purchasing of a launch slot and vehicle. And that would take at least 2 years if ordered in the next 90 days. Then add in integrating a new spacecraft / vehicle (what is the term???) interconnect, and securing a new orbital delivery location for checkout and delivery. After it is all said and done, it may be quicker to wait-out SeaLaunch's review before making a decision. Now, the return to flight for SeaLaunch might just require the launch of a dummy / demo payload to prove they have worked out the issues. Remember, that is what they did for their first launch, basically launched a brick.

The other thing to consider when looking at the manifest is that a number of customers may not want to go next, and the various insurers are not looking to be next.

With everything taken into account, I would be willing to make book that D11 will not see orbit this year.

[Win Joy Jr]

Just watched the video, looks like a structural failure in the launch vehicle...

It will be interesting to see what they can recover...

[P Smith]

I would say the launch table/clamps/etc did fall down.

[TheRatPatrol]

Sorry if this has been asked already, but is there anyway that D* could use the existing MPEG4 satellites to deliver a few more national HD channels, or are they strictly spot beams only? Couldn't they send the same HD channel(s) on all spot beams to cover all parts of the country, or is that not possible?

And will D* be able to deliver true HD with the new satellite capacity, or will we have to settle for HD lite?

Thanks

[P Smith]

Off Topic !!!

[Tom Robertson]

Sorry if this has been asked already, but is there anyway that D* could use the existing MPEG4 satellites to deliver a few more national HD channels, or are they strictly spot beams only? Couldn't they send the same HD channel(s) on all spot beams to cover all parts of the country, or is that not possible?

And will D* be able to deliver true HD with the new satellite capacity, or will we have to settle for HD lite?

Thanks

In theory D* could possibly us the existing satellites to create a few huge spotbeams to do some national HD. I've read that doing so might take too much of the available power within the satellites. At the press conference at CES, DirecTV mentioned they had looked into doing this, but decided it wasn't worth the effort.

They could deliver true HD--but the question is at what bitrate and how close will it be to meeting the needs of the source material...

Cheers,
Tom

[cforrest]

Article from today's WSJ:

Failed Boeing-Led Satellite Launch
Augurs Ill for Commercial Ventures

By ANDY PASZTOR
February 1, 2007; Page A6

... With Sea Launch out of commission at least for many months, and foreign launch capacity already constrained, it is likely to be "incredibly tough finding another launch slot" for satellites weighing as much as 13,000 pounds, said Tim Farrar, a satellite consultant in Menlo Park, Calif.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117028822916094341.html

[P Smith]

It was mentioned, Sea Launch Co have ability to use same Zenit rocket (land based type) for deliver apparatuses from Baykonur (Kazakhstan).

[Chris Blount]

Will Explosion Affect DIRECTV's HD Plans?

Earlier this week, a SES New Skies satellite and rocket exploded during its launch from the unmanned, ocean-going Sea Launch platform in the equatorial Pacific. A spokeswoman for the company confirmed that the Boeing-built NSS-8 satellite had been destroyed - but no one yet knows just how significant the damage is to the platform itself.

Particularly interested in the platform's current state is DIRECTV with its plans to launch two new satellites later this year that the company is banking on to take its high definition offering to the next level. Of the two satellites - DIRECTV-10 and DIRECTV-11 - the second is the only one slated for launch at the sea-bound platform.

Bernstein Research's Craig Moffett said DIRECTV-10 will be launched from the ground in June and should be able to provide sufficient capacity to deliver dozens of national HD channels that the company promised at this year's CES. The analyst also said it is likely that the launch of DIRECTV-11, however, will be delayed.

According to DIRECTV, a launch delay would limit the rate at which the company can expand availability of local HD channels. Moffett said the satcaster is looking at other launching options for DIRECTV-11, though its unclear whether it will be able to secure an alternative launch slot.

"Any delay in DIRECTV's HDTV strategy is an incremental negative for the company (but) the impact is likely smaller than initial reports may have suggested," the analyst said about predictions the company would postpone its HD development until 2008. "Having to delay expanding their HD locals footprint is clearly a setback, but we believe the impact is likely to be relatively modest."

Late last night, Robert Mercer, DIRECTV's director of public relations told SkyREPORT that the explosion would have no impact on the company's future HD plans.

http://www.skyreport.com (Used with permission)

[purtman]

Will Explosion Affect DIRECTV's HD Plans?

Earlier this week, a SES New Skies satellite and rocket exploded during its launch from the unmanned, ocean-going Sea Launch platform in the equatorial Pacific. A spokeswoman for the company confirmed that the Boeing-built NSS-8 satellite had been destroyed - but no one yet knows just how significant the damage is to the platform itself.

Particularly interested in the platform's current state is DIRECTV with its plans to launch two new satellites later this year that the company is banking on to take its high definition offering to the next level. Of the two satellites - DIRECTV-10 and DIRECTV-11 - the second is the only one slated for launch at the sea-bound platform.

Bernstein Research's Craig Moffett said DIRECTV-10 will be launched from the ground in June and should be able to provide sufficient capacity to deliver dozens of national HD channels that the company promised at this year's CES. The analyst also said it is likely that the launch of DIRECTV-11, however, will be delayed.

According to DIRECTV, a launch delay would limit the rate at which the company can expand availability of local HD channels. Moffett said the satcaster is looking at other launching options for DIRECTV-11, though its unclear whether it will be able to secure an alternative launch slot.

"Any delay in DIRECTV's HDTV strategy is an incremental negative for the company (but) the impact is likely smaller than initial reports may have suggested," the analyst said about predictions the company would postpone its HD development until 2008. "Having to delay expanding their HD locals footprint is clearly a setback, but we believe the impact is likely to be relatively modest."

Late last night, Robert Mercer, DIRECTV's director of public relations told SkyREPORT that the explosion would have no impact on the company's future HD plans.

http://www.skyreport.com (Used with permission)


I have to imagine there is some type of backup plan. Companies which invest a lot in technology, whether it's D* or a company that launches satellites, would have to have some type of backup. I would imagine the first satellite will go up fine and the second one may be delayed.

[Earl Bonovich]

IMHO... It is just over 36 hours since the "anamoly" there are still way too many unknowns at this point.

[harsh]

Late last night, Robert Mercer, DIRECTV's director of public relations told SkyREPORT that the explosion would have no impact on the company's future HD plans.The question that remains is whether or not they will tell us the truth about what their plans are. If D10 isn't due to launch until June as the stock analyst says, they clearly aren't going to make any Q1, Q2 or Q3 dates.

Mercer doesn't seem to be a very reliable source of information. Methinks he's been assimilated by the marketroids.

[RAD]

The question that remains is whether or not they will tell us the truth about what their plans are. If D10 isn't due to launch until June as the stock analyst says, they clearly aren't going to make any Q1, Q2 or Q3 dates.

Mercer doesn't seem to be a very reliable source of information. Methinks he's been assimilated by the marketroids.

Their 100 HD channel announcement said 100 in 2007 so what dates would be missed? Also, I haven't seen any official announcement from anyone that says what date D10 is schedule to launch, I've seen people say anywhere from April to July so who says this guy is right about a June launch?

IMHO, D*'s been in a damned if we do, damned if we don't problem. Folks always complain about D* not announcing what their plans are and now that they've made some announcements everyone's second guessing them all the time. We're less then 48 hours after this has happened, how about giving D* and Boeing a few weeks to find out how bad the damage was and what it's going to do to the schedule?

[dmspen]

Another poster, from Sea Launch, mentioned that in an emergency, a launch could be normally done in two months. Does this estimate include the time your talking about or would there be more time too?

Thanks for sharing!
Tom

In an emergency, almost anything can be accomplished, especially when the bottom line ($$$) is affected. It wouldn't take a real big deal to launch somewhere else in 2 months IF:

You had the same booster
You could get a time slot to launch
You had immediate access to the new pad

AND the biggest reason...
You KNEW what the original failure of the booster was!

Another option would be to replace one sat with another. For instance, D* 10 was Sea Launch. D* 11 is a Proton launch (I think). You could put D10 on the Proton using the D11 hardware. It would be unlikely that they are very different. That would be the easiest if you were in a rush. You'd still need to get a new launch time. Most launch bases are packed. Also, there's launch personnel to consider. For instance, the Delta booster has 1 launch support team. Thus, you can't launch a Delta from Vandenburg and turn right around and launch out of Canaveral. You need a minimum turn around time for the poor slobs who work round the clock (been there, done that!).

[RAD]

Another option would be to replace one sat with another. For instance, D* 10 was Sea Launch. D* 11 is a Proton launch (I think).

My understanding it's the other way around, D10 Proton, D11 SeaLaunch.

[mhayes70]

Their 100 HD channel announcement said 100 in 2007 so what dates would be missed? Also, I haven't seen any official announcement from anyone that says what date D10 is schedule to launch, I've seen people say anywhere from April to July so who says this guy is right about a June launch?

IMHO, D*'s been in a damned if we do, damned if we don't problem. Folks always complain about D* not announcing what their plans are and now that they've made some announcements everyone's second guessing them all the time. We're less then 48 hours after this has happened, how about giving D* and Boeing a few weeks to find out how bad the damage was and what it's going to do to the schedule?

I totally agree with you. D10 will be launched as planned with no specific date set yet. It is being launched on land. (Sometime between April and July) D11 might be delayed because it was a Sealauch. BUT, that has not been determined yet and won't be for a while.

[jodavis]

Knowing the Launch base and the orbital destination (which I dont but I'm sure someone here does) it should be possible to figure out the launch windows for D10 between April and July. I think there would only be a few since they are going to such a specific orbital slot.

[P Smith]

NO, you can't do that by your assumptions.

[Earl Bonovich]

Sea Launch has released a format statement.

http://www.sea-launch.com/news_releases/nr_070201.html

Thanks to moonman for providing the link

[RAD]

This is part of the statement that scares me "Applications for all necessary permits and licenses required to proceed with these activities are also in process." Between uncle Sam and California, that could take a long time, maybe longer then the actual repairs;)

[Mikey]

Sea Launch has released a format statement.

http://www.sea-launch.com/news_releases/nr_070201.htmlDamage control. Trying not to scare away investors and customers.

[Tom Robertson]

Knowing the Launch base and the orbital destination (which I dont but I'm sure someone here does) it should be possible to figure out the launch windows for D10 between April and July. I think there would only be a few since they are going to such a specific orbital slot.

You've got the right idea, but not enough information. For instance, while tests are being run, its pretty common to park the satellite somewhere else, which we don't know. As this is the first satellite to perform its duty in this final slot, it might actually be tested there, but I just don't know.

Another thing, Geosynchronous orbits have much easier windows than trying to mate with another orbiting object like ISS or Hubble. Or than trying to hit a low earth orbit pattern. GeoSats just need a clear path between all the stuff already there and the right daylight configuration. IIRC, they try to launch at certain times of the day to avoid thermal stresses, but I no longer recall all the details.

Cheers,
Tom

[lwilli201]

This event also hurt Dish. They have a sat scheduled with Sea Launch. D* had the forsight to schedule their two sats this year to different companies. They will get one up on time, while Dish may be pushed back for some time.

The best chance to get D 11 up anytime soon is for Sea Launch to get up and running again.

[wilbur_the_goose]

The net effect for me is the switch to the HR20 is now indefinitely delayed. Looks like NFLST HD will likely be in MPEG-2 again in '07 unless we have better news on the satellite front. To me, this is A-OK. Gives D* more time to get the HR20 to where they want it before a flood of subscribers move over.

[Lags]

Wow. The video footage of the explosion is incredible. Glad no one was hurt. I think something like this will definitely delay launch plans by DTV and Echostar.

[THX]

Looks like the owner of the satellite released a press release about the loss of their NSS-8:

http://www.newskies.com/pressreleases_420.htm

[directvfreak]

This talk about 100 National HD. I really don't care. All I would like is a few more of the popular HD. Starz, National Geographic, A&E and that sort of stuff. If they add 10 HD, I would be happy.

[mw1597]

Why?

Their first SAT wasn't planned for SeaLaunch anyway... it was the second that was.

Between now and then a lot of things can change.

Plus.. even with just 1 of the SAT's they can provide a LOT of HD content... maybe not the "capacity" by years end...

but even if both go up... there still won't be 150 HD networks by years end...

For me this was the last straw. Another unknown regarding when DirecTV will provide additional HD programming. For months I've been on the fence about upgrading my equipment to the DirecTV HD DVR and having a 2 year commitment, or switch to Dish or cable.
Dish now offers their HD DVR for no upfront cost and no commitment. I'm saying goodbye to DirecTV and hello to Dish (at least for the short term). I'll have HD content now and if DirecTV gets their SAT's up and if their HD content surpasses Dish then I may switch back. IMO there is no incentive to stay with DirecTV and this SAT launch issue may hasten many others to look elsewhere for HD content.

Mike

[RAD]

For me this was the last straw. Another unknown regarding when DirecTV will provide additional HD programming. For months I've been on the fence about upgrading my equipment to the DirecTV HD DVR and having a 2 year commitment, or switch to Dish or cable.
Dish now offers their HD DVR for no upfront cost and no commitment. I'm saying goodbye to DirecTV and hello to Dish (at least for the short term). I'll have HD content now and if DirecTV gets their SAT's up and if their HD content surpasses Dish then I may switch back. IMO there is no incentive to stay with DirecTV and this SAT launch issue may hasten many others to look elsewhere for HD content.

Mike

Bye Mike.

I just love how people are saying they're going to jump ship because of this while nobody has come from D* and said that this will prevent them from the 100 channels in 2007. Even if D11 doesn't make it this year, that's still 75 national HD channels that they would have the capacity to handle.

Also, E11 was schedule to use SeaLaunch this year also, they had a launch date before D11. So who know what that might do to any plans that E* had for that and additional HD channels, like the RSN's?

[Tom Robertson]

For me this was the last straw. Another unknown regarding when DirecTV will provide additional HD programming. For months I've been on the fence about upgrading my equipment to the DirecTV HD DVR and having a 2 year commitment, or switch to Dish or cable.
Dish now offers their HD DVR for no upfront cost and no commitment. I'm saying goodbye to DirecTV and hello to Dish (at least for the short term). I'll have HD content now and if DirecTV gets their SAT's up and if their HD content surpasses Dish then I may switch back. IMO there is no incentive to stay with DirecTV and this SAT launch issue may hasten many others to look elsewhere for HD content.

Mike

I'm sorry your frustration has reached this level, but I somewhat understand.

That said, remember Dish is affected by this as well. In fact, perhaps more so than DirecTV--their launch of Echostar X was scheduled on SeaLuanch sooner than DirecTVs. Sea Launch might get up and running again before DirecTV 11 was scheduled to go.

I still think DirecTV will accomplish more HD sooner than Dish by the end of this year. And may hold that for more than a couple months, given that Dish's next launch after Echostar X is in 2009, IIRC.

And cable is cable. Some are good, some are bad, some are just ok.

Anyway, good luck what ever you do.
Tom

[James Long]

E11 will be a good satellite for E*. (E10 was launched last year and is currently working fine at 110°, so it's XI not X that is in question.) But E* has yet to announce anything that depends on E11. As far as has been announced, E11 is a replacement satellite that hasn't even been given an orbital location that I can recall.

[inbloom]

They must have a back up plan. When I upgraded to HD the CSR promised 100 HD channels by the end of 2007, I doubt D* would make promises that they can't keep :lol:

[lwilli201]

E11 is a KU sat.

I think they know where they are going to put it since it is scheduled for launch. I believe it is scheduled to launch from Sea Launch before D10, when ever that will be. I dont think they are going to put Court TV on it.

Article about contract to launch E 11.

http://www.space-travel.com/reports/Sea_Launch_Contracts_To_Launch_EchoStar_XI.html

D11 will probably beat both up.

[James Long]

E11 is a KU sat.A good thing since DBS is Ku! :)

PALO ALTO, Calif. — December 20, 2004 — Space Systems/Loral (SS/L) today announced that it has been selected by EchoStar Communications Corporation, Englewood, Colo., to build EchoStar XI, a new direct broadcast satellite (DBS) based on SS/L's 1300 platform that will support EchoStar's DISH Network™ and serve as backup to its existing fleet.
source (http://www.ssloral.com/html/pressreleases/pr20041220.html)

[brittonx]

What concerns me about this is if D* can't launch the D11 bird then will the 100HD channels be "HDLite" to squeeze into the bandwidth of only the one sat?

[Tom Robertson]

E11 is a KU sat.

I think they know where they are going to put it since it is scheduled for launch. I believe it is scheduled to launch from Sea Launch before D10, when ever that will be. I dont think they are going to put Court TV on it.

Article about contract to launch E 11.

http://www.space-travel.com/reports/Sea_Launch_Contracts_To_Launch_EchoStar_XI.html

D11 will probably beat both up.

Yeah, E* has eschewed most of the KA frequencies (they might be using them for uplinks?). And E11 is definitely supposed to be before D10 and D11--but D10, will likely beat both--since D10 is scheduled for ILS, not Sea Launch anyway.

Cheers,
Tom

[James Long]

E* got a lot of complaints about the size of their "SuperDish"es for Ku FSS and the difficulty of pointing one. Ka will be used eventually, but for now E* has Ku DBS and FSS bandwidth to use ... so they are letting others take the risks with ka.

I expect that when E* does start using that bandwidth that they will be using it for business TV leased links, backhauls and satellite internet and not "normal" customer TV channels like D* is using ka.

[harsh]

That said, remember Dish is affected by this as well. In fact, perhaps more so than DirecTV--their launch of Echostar X was scheduled on SeaLuanch sooner than DirecTVs.Actually, it is Echostar XI; Echostar X has been online for several months now.

Obviously E* isn't at capacity yet as they slowly add new HD content every once in awhile (although this may be a result of MPEG4 efficiencies as opposed to unused bandwidth). D* has been stalled and will continue to be stalled until Q4 based on the most recent information.

It is a fairly safe bet that D* needs the bandwidth more than E*. The chances now that Echostar XI beats DirecTV 10 into orbit are probably pretty slim, but as we've watched things slip with the DirecTV 10 launch, you have to wonder.

[Tom Robertson]

Kommersant.com is saying: Repairs may take at least six month, unofficial sources estimated. and
Meanwhile, American DirecTV Group, which planned to launch its telecommunications satellite with a Zenit-3SL, has asked the Khrunichev Center send its satellite with another launcher, Proton-M.


They also say that Sea Launch will still launch Thuraya D3 satellite on time, but don't say how.

http://www.kommersant.com/p739176/Space_Satellite_Zenit/

Cheers,
Tom

[Dusty]

What concerns me about this is if D* can't launch the D11 bird then will the 100HD channels be "HDLite" to squeeze into the bandwidth of only the one sat?

I am not that concerned. I surely like HD but HDlite still beats SD.

[spectrumsp]

Having spent the better part of my 22 year USAF career in missile operations and the remainder inspecting Russian IRBMs/ICBMs under several arms control treaties, I will make the following observations:

The accident investigation board must first determine the initial cause/location of the explosion, ie, was it launch platform based (the ship and associated support equipment) or missile based...if it's launch platform based, then D* could possibly move forward with a land launch alternative if scheduling at a supportable launch site can be made.

If the issue is determined to be missile based, ie the initial cause was found to be on the bird or within associated ground support missile equipment, then all bets are off...I don't care what alternate launch facility is available, the missile will be decertified for commercial use until the issue is corrected...and that could take weeks or years.

If it is determined to be launch vehicle based, D* will have to determine if the sat can be launched by another vehicle such as a Delta...depending upon payload size/weigh and other orbit issues, another lauch vehicle may/may not be available...

As I initially said, the initial critical issue is where did the launch failure begin...on launch platform eqipment or launch vehicle equipment, including the missile...once that is determined, then D* can move forward...

[Richard King]

Welcome to the conversation, neighbor. It's about time we had a rocket scientist join us.

[Win Joy Jr]

I would say the launch table/clamps/etc did fall down.

I don't really agree. I am still leaning toward structural failure of the 1st stage of the launch vehicle.

[lwilli201]

I would think they have many cameras on the platform. It would be neat to see some of that.

[P Smith]

I don't really agree. I am still leaning toward structural failure of the 1st stage of the launch vehicle.

After posting my opinion, I found next day follow posted links same official suggestion.

[CCarncross]

Cos that would the sane and logical thing to do, and that went out the window when the internet was invented(you know, by Al Gore)

;)

[cbeckner80]

For me this was the last straw. Another unknown regarding when DirecTV will provide additional HD programming. For months I've been on the fence about upgrading my equipment to the DirecTV HD DVR and having a 2 year commitment, or switch to Dish or cable.
Dish now offers their HD DVR for no upfront cost and no commitment. I'm saying goodbye to DirecTV and hello to Dish (at least for the short term). I'll have HD content now and if DirecTV gets their SAT's up and if their HD content surpasses Dish then I may switch back. IMO there is no incentive to stay with DirecTV and this SAT launch issue may hasten many others to look elsewhere for HD content.

Mike

It amazes me. I left E* for the same reason(s). They wanted to charge me for equipment to do an upgrade to HD after being with them for eight years, so I switched to D* because they were giving me the equipment free. Now your talking about leaving D* to go to E* because D* will charge for equipment and E* will give it to you free.:nono2: :grin:

Seems like they are more interested in taking customers from the other sat provider than being loyal to their current customers.

Good luck.:confused:

[lwilli201]

Yep, always looking for something for nothing.

I am an early adopter, therefore I always buy all my D* equipment. If you don't you miss to much. And by the time they start giving things away, there is something better coming out. I have bought and installed my own since 1996. All the jumping back and forth to get new equipment is the reason for the 2 year commitment.


My stack of old receivers is getting higher all the time. :lol: :lol:

[johnp37]

They must have a back up plan. When I upgraded to HD the CSR promised 100 HD channels by the end of 2007, I doubt D* would make promises that they can't keep :lol:

Make promises they can't keep?!! Go to their website and they are still promoting the HR20 as the be all, end all DVR despite it's ongoing problems. It absolutely blows my mind that members of this forum, obviously intelligent and knowledgeable who own the HR20 have accepted corrective downloads,programs not recorded, and black screens as a fact of life(you say,well,it is getting better??). This machine should have been tested extensively and not released for production unless flawless right out of the box as was my original HR10-250. To that miniscule few who report zero problems with their machine, I say good for you and good luck. My current HR10-250, a refurb replacement by the way, is still going strong with no issues. I hope and pray it remains that way until such time in the distant future when the HR20 or a variation thereof is trouble free.

[James Long]

:backtotop

This thread is about the explosion on the Sea Launch platform, not about general problems with D* (or E*). Please keep the focus. Thanks.

[Tom Robertson]

nasaspaceflight.com has pix in their forum: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=5103&start=496

The exhaust deflector is gone, but that seems to be a planned replaceable part--the supports are still there. Aside from that and a good paint job, it looks like it could be ready to launch. (Yeah, I know, they have to actually test all the arms, clamps, etc., but considering what happened, the thing looks in great shape.)

Cheers,
Tom

[david803sc]

If you watch the top of the rocket at the time of main engine ignition you will see it rapidly fall straight down onto itself, which makes me think the bottom half of the rocket almost instantly suffered catastrophic damage, basically as if at time of ignition the bottom half of the rocket disintegrates causing the top half to fall straight down into that space.

David

[P Smith]

That forum extensively discuss it; also they did estimation for repair: 2-4 months if the whole rig is OK, or up to 1 year. Suppose to be done in Singapore.

[SockMonkey]

In case you didn't catch the link on that forum... there is a link to photos of the platform actually making it's way home? Amazing that it survived as well as it did considering the size of the fireball.

http://www.boeing.com/special/sea-launch/mission_nss-8/nss-8-in-transit.html

Bob

[Jeremy W]

Amazing that it survived as well as it did considering the size of the fireball.
It's not that amazing, considering the fact that it's an open platform. The explosion had unlimited space to spread out, and therefore caused much less damage. I saw a really good example on another forum: if you hold a firecracker in your open hand and it goes off, it'll sting but it won't really do any harm. But if you close your hand, you'll probably lose some fingers.

[jbart1965]

ON DTV's financial conf call today, company said:

Chase Carey, The DIRECTV Group, Inc. - President, CEO

Looking quickly at 2007, it's certainly both an important, and we believe it will be a big year for us. The headline of the year is going to be HD. We announced earlier in January our plans to have 100 channels of HD in the second half of 2007, and we are still on track for that. We will launch a satellite in the middle of the year that will provide us that capacity. I know last week there was the press about one of the two satellites we had planned going up relating to this being delayed, potentially delayed due to another satellite exploding on the Sea Launch vehicle. Again that won't affect our first satellite.

Our first satellite is going up on a Proton satellite. That launch is on plan. That satellite will really give us the capacity that we plan to have for 2007 for this second half HD launch, essentially getting us wide local HD, and around 100 channels of HD.

...

We don't know on the second satellite, we don't know the launch timing of it. Sea Launch seems to be encouraged that the damage to the platform is limited, and there may be little or no delays to the planned launches for those satellites. That satellite is really giving us capacity for the next phase of growth, so it wouldn't affect our '07 plans. Bottom line on '07 spending it gets us through the satellites, and it's certainly the large share of the buildout, we're built out for over 50 local markets today.

[digitalfreak]

Yes, it has only been 24 hours, but consider the following:

1. The last SeaLaunch failure was NOT a launch pad failure, but a launch vehicle failure to deliver the payload to orbit. This time, they will have to look at both the launch platform and the vehicle. Longer duration for the review board.

2. Moving D11 to another launch platform is not an easy thing. D11 is designed to be integrated to the SeaLaunch launch vehicle. To change now would require the purchasing of a launch slot and vehicle. And that would take at least 2 years if ordered in the next 90 days. Then add in integrating a new spacecraft / vehicle (what is the term???) interconnect, and securing a new orbital delivery location for checkout and delivery. After it is all said and done, it may be quicker to wait-out SeaLaunch's review before making a decision. Now, the return to flight for SeaLaunch might just require the launch of a dummy / demo payload to prove they have worked out the issues. Remember, that is what they did for their first launch, basically launched a brick.

The other thing to consider when looking at the manifest is that a number of customers may not want to go next, and the various insurers are not looking to be next.

With everything taken into account, I would be willing to make book that D11 will not see orbit this year.

That's what you get for using old USSR junk.

[cforrest]

Latest from Sea-Launch:

Long Beach, Calif., February 8, 2007

While the final assessment will be completed when the Launch Platform arrives at Home Port, the most notable findings at this time are the loss of the flame deflector, located below the launch pad, and the position of the aft doors of the hangar, which are off of their supports. This hangar houses and protects the transporter-erector support structure during launch operations. Preliminary assessments indicate that other Launch Support Equipment is in good condition.

The complete release at the link below:

http://www.boeing.com/special/sea-launch/news_releases/nr_070208.html

[Tom Robertson]

Sea Launch Odyssey is due back to home port Friday, perhaps Thursday night. We should learn more soon after that.

Cheers,
Tom

[lwilli201]

Does the Odyssey come back after each launch or stay out their? Was it going to return to port any way?

[Tom Robertson]

Does the Odyssey come back after each launch or stay out their? Was it going to return to port any way?

While Odyssey can be loaded at sea, I gather from the commentary that they do not like doing that. They prefer to bring her home, load her up and send her out again. Given the original flight schedule for this year and the dislike to load at sea, I'm fairly certain she was coming home anyway.

BTW, I didn't mention, but it sounds like she made "normal" time to transit home, a good sign that at least her flotation and sailing systems are in good shape and won't need repairs.

Cheers,
Tom

[P Smith]

Umm, sorry but Odyssey was a MAN ! :D

[Tom Robertson]

Umm, sorry but Odyssey was a MAN ! :D

I thought "Odyssey" was the epic of Odysseus the man. :)

besides, ships is girls.

Cheers,
Tom

[P Smith]

Ok, 'oil rig' or 'a platform', 'launch pad'.

[lwilli201]

I should have looked here to start with. Sea Launch website explains it all. It comes back after each launch.

http://www.boeing.com/special/sea-launch/slfacilities.htm

[Tom Robertson]

Ok, 'oil rig' or 'a platform', 'launch pad'.

Oops, I'm sorry, I think I missed your original point. Do they refer to Odyssey as "him"?

Cheers,
Tom

[P Smith]

" The Launch Platform provides accommodations for 68 crew and launch system personnel—including living, dining, medical and recreation facilities. It is equipped with a large, environmentally controlled hangar for storage of the Sea Launch rocket during transit, and with mobile transporter/erector equipment that is used to roll out and erect the rocket in launch position prior to fueling and launch. Special facilities onboard enable the storage of rocket fuels (kerosene and liquid oxygen) sufficient for each mission. "
Don't recall it - only "it" as above.

[P Smith]

They found a reason of the blow out:
"Experts found that the accident’s most probable reason was the disruption of main feed line of liquid oxygen from the fuel tank to the engine. It might be the evidence of spoilage which happened during the rocket’s production in Yuzhmash R&D center."

[Tom Robertson]

Sea Launch Odyssey is home: http://www.dbstalk.com/showthread.php?t=79995

[BNUMM]

has been rescheduled from March 2006 to September 2006 on Jet Propulsion Labs launch calendar. It was scheduled to be launched by Sea Launch.

[lwilli201]

has been rescheduled from March 2006 to September 2006 on Jet Propulsion Labs launch calendar. It was scheduled to be launched by Sea Launch.

Do you have the link to that schedule?

[Tom Robertson]

Do you have the link to that schedule?

http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/calendar/#0709

[lwilli201]

http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/calendar/#0709

Thanks for the link. There is alot to see in that list.

[Tom Robertson]

Thanks for the link. There is alot to see in that list.

Happy to help. :) I haven't found a list that is totally accurate on launches; seems like many people are using the same few limited sources for their data. But I keep lookin' :)

Cheers,
Tom

[harsh]

http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/calendar/#0709If you've followed that link for a while, the months for the DirecTV satellites haven't been updated in quite some time. Certainly not since the Sea Lauch booboo. Still no dates to be found.

[lwilli201]

If you've followed that link for a while, the months for the DirecTV satellites haven't been updated in quite some time. Certainly not since the Sea Lauch booboo. Still no dates to be found.

I have found that Sea Launch and ILS do not announce a launch untill it is the next one in line. Everything else is assumptions.

But if Echo star 11 does not go up untill September, that puts a serious delay on D 11. If D 10 gets up on time, we should have a significant increase in HD channels by the end of the year.

[harsh]

I have found that Sea Launch and ILS do not announce a launch untill it is the next one in line. Everything else is assumptions.That's what I liked about the satellitefinance.com website. Even if the parties weren't willing to talk about launch dates, the bonding agencies were. Most of the remotely authoritative news that we've been able to gather lately has been because of financial reporting and stock analysts. No matter how secretive the companies want to be, they don't seem to be able to turn down a wall street query.But if Echo star 11 does not go up untill September, that puts a serious delay on D 11. If D 10 gets up on time, we should have a significant increase in HD channels by the end of the year.You would appear to be assuming that DirecTV has no other option than Sea Launch for DirecTV 11. I have seen a couple pieces of evidence that suggest that they have a reservation with ILS.

[cforrest]

Harsh,

D10 has enough capacity for 100 CONUS HD channels, so if as stated "D10 goes up without a hitch," there will be a significant increase in HD by year end. With D11 up in the air as to when it'll launch, HD LIL will be delayed, since all available bandwidth on D10 will be used for CONUS HD channels until D11 is up there.

[Tom Robertson]

That's what I liked about the satellitefinance.com website. Even if the parties weren't willing to talk about launch dates, the bonding agencies were. Most of the remotely authoritative news that we've been able to gather lately has been because of financial reporting and stock analysts. No matter how secretive the companies want to be, they don't seem to be able to turn down a wall street query.
...

You would appear to be assuming that DirecTV has no other option than Sea Launch for DirecTV 11. I have seen a couple pieces of evidence that suggest that they have a reservation with ILS.

Also, DIRECTV might have a contract with Sea Launch to go in July no matter what that launch order might have been--assuming Sea Launch is launching by then. We'll know more in a few days/weeks. Sounds like Sea Launch will have to go to a shipyard, but probably not to a drydock across the ocean. Long Beach can't do the heavy lifting, alas.

Say Harsh, do you get the satellitefinance still? i'm not registered an they hid the latest calendar from free-view.

Cheers,
Tom

[lwilli201]

I doubt that D* has bump rights in any of its contracts. Sea Launch has three sats contracted to go up before D11.

[Tom Robertson]

I doubt that D* has bump rights in any of its contracts. Sea Launch has three sats contracted to go up before D11.

Could be, I really do not know. But I'd like to find out. :)

There is an example of Sea Launch launching a D* bird when Arianne had a delay; and D* has optional launches in its contract(s), perhaps just for this occasion or for D12's emergency lift?

All interesting :)
Tom

[lwilli201]

Could be, I really do not know. But I'd like to find out. :)

There is an example of Sea Launch launching a D* bird when Arianne had a delay; and D* has optional launches in its contract(s), perhaps just for this occasion or for D12's emergency lift?

All interesting :)
Tom

Could be that Sea Launch had an open window to do a unscheluled launch for D*. Today there looks like all the commercial launch companies are booked into the far future. There just is not a quick way to put up a sat. I guess D* could buy a launch spot from another company, but Dish has a bird scheduled before D* on Sea Launch, so I don't think Dish would want to swap launch spots.

[Tom Robertson]

Could be that Sea Launch had an open window to do a unscheluled launch for D*. Today there looks like all the commercial launch companies are booked into the far future. There just is not a quick way to put up a sat. I guess D* could buy a launch spot from another company, but Dish has a bird scheduled before D* on Sea Launch, so I don't think Dish would want to swap launch spots.

Thinking out loud and not disagreeing at all: if E* goes to a land based launch (which sounds like a possibility), losing their slot on Sea Launch?

Basically, everyone is scrambling and adjusting, throughout the whole industry. :) Atlas is still grounded, but might be available any day now; depending on their review of the explosion reports.

Cheers,
Tom

[P Smith]

<skip>
Sounds like Sea Launch will have to go to a shipyard, but probably not to a drydock across the ocean. Long Beach can't do the heavy lifting, alas.
<skip>
Cheers,
Tom

They did suggest do install a deflector and minor repairs and painting in Canada (Seattle ?).
But before that it will take a month for produce a report.

[lwilli201]

Thinking out loud and not disagreeing at all: if E* goes to a land based launch (which sounds like a possibility), losing their slot on Sea Launch?

Basically, everyone is scrambling and adjusting, throughout the whole industry. :) Atlas is still grounded, but might be available any day now; depending on their review of the explosion reports.

Cheers,
Tom

OK so E* goes to land launch, that still leaves 2 sats before D11 on Sea Launch. I'm sure that a contract with Sea Launch does not requires a launch in a small window because of all the variables. If Sea Launch can launch the sat in the contracted window, I'm sure they will not let E* out of their contract. Unless an enormous amount of money changes hands, I don't see any changes in launch sequences and launch companies.

[Tom Robertson]

OK so E* goes to land launch, that still leaves 2 sats before D11 on Sea Launch. I'm sure that a contract with Sea Launch does not requires a launch in a small window because of all the variables. If Sea Launch can launch the sat in the contracted window, I'm sure they will not let E* out of their contract. Unless an enormous amount of money changes hands, I don't see and changes in launch sequences and launch companies.

I gather that the launcher companies (and contracts) "help" each other out under these circumstances--but that all depends on available capacity, of course. :)

Cheers,
Tom

[lwilli201]

I gather that the launcher companies (and contracts) "help" each other out under these circumstances--but that all depends on available capacity, of course. :)

Cheers,
Tom

That could be true to a point if a launch window is open, but I don't think any launch company is going to delay one of their contracted launches to help out another. It appears that all launch companies are booked up solid for the next two years. It seems to take about 2 years to build a large DBS sat. When a company contracts to get a sat built, it also has to contract for a launch at the same time. There is just that much lead time required in that business.

Another thing to consider is that the insurance would probably have to be renegotiated based on the risk rating of a new launch company. Any companies that do not yet have insurance for launches scheduled for Sea Launch (if any) will have to pay a higher price because the risk will be higher because of the failed launch.

[P Smith]

I wouldn't worried about raising the companies' expenses as a stockholder - they'll pass every penny to us, customers. Just wait for next raise, it will be not $1 but $1.99 and will cover all that work/insurance/lawyers/etc.

[harsh]

D10 has enough capacity for 100 CONUS HD channels, so if as stated "D10 goes up without a hitch," there will be a significant increase in HD by year end. As D10, D11 and D12 are supposed to be functionally identical, I assumed that each had 75 channel capacity.

[cforrest]

Chase Carey said 100 HD channels from D10 alone, but then again he could be blowing smoke. I am sure no HD LIL would be coming from the Satellite though as all bandwidth would go towards CONUS. If 75 is the max with MPEG-4, then obviously he is blowing smoke. Only time will tell, just a question of how long.

[James Long]

The question of "How many channels can fit on a satellite?" has been moved to its own thread so we can concentrate on Sea Launch issues here.

See http://www.dbstalk.com/showthread.php?t=80369

[Ext 721]

D* is eyeing the prospect of doing BOTH launches from russia, instead of just the one.

Makes me wonder why Ecuador doesn't have a space facility.

[lwilli201]

D* is eyeing the prospect of doing BOTH launches from russia, instead of just the one.

Makes me wonder why Ecuador doesn't have a space facility.

Please let us have your source for that information.

[Tom Robertson]

Please let us have your source for that information.

:) I don't need a source for that one. I'm sure D* is eying whatever facilities it can scramble to get right now including: Arianne, ILS, Land Launch (tho I don't think it can lift that much, IIRC), and even the US ones.

Cheers,
Tom

[Ext 721]

Please let us have your source for that information.

Not the least source; sealaunch itself uses that facility (from their web-page) and D*'s "10" is scheduled to use it.

[lwilli201]

:) I don't need a source for that one. I'm sure D* is eying whatever facilities it can scramble to get right now including: Arianne, ILS, Land Launch (tho I don't think it can lift that much, IIRC), and even the US ones.

Cheers,
Tom

If they go to another launch company they will go to the end of the line and that is 1 or more years down the road. A little research wll show that all launch companies are booked well into the future. Sea Launch will be up and running before they could get a launch date from another company. The only alternative I see is if Sea Launch could schedule a land launch, but I don't see that happening unless they can not do any more sea launches. Even then, Sea Launch has 3 sats scheduled before the D* sat.

[moonman]

DIRECTV10 scheduled for launch with ILS,(Proton) according to this release..
http://www.ilslaunch.com/zmedia/newsarchives/newsreleases/rec316/
The 2005 contract, includes a option of a second launch with them.
I don't know of the details, however should it include a option for a extra launch this year, I'm sure D* would want to use it.

[lwilli201]

DIRECTV10 scheduled for launch with ILS,(Proton) according to this release..
http://www.ilslaunch.com/zmedia/newsarchives/newsreleases/rec316/
The 2005 contract, includes a option of a second launch with them.
I don't know of the details, however should it include a option for a extra launch this year, I'm sure D* would want to use it.

I don't see that the option specifically for this year. The specifics of that option would be interesting to know.

[harsh]

Makes me wonder why Ecuador doesn't have a space facility.It takes money and security to launch satellites. A case could be made that Ecuador has neither.

[Tom Robertson]

Thinking about this a bit, Equador also has the problem of being on the west coast and therefor also need overflight clearance of Columbia and Brazil. Which is why Arianne picked French Guiana.

Cheers,
Tom