Nick
02-05-07, 06:57 AM
Evie Haskell, of Mediabiz.com, challenges conventional Wall Street wisdom.SkyBOX: Three "Facts" That Aren't
by Evie Haskell evie@Mediabiz.com
Welcome to the "Did you really believe THAT?" edition of SkyBOX ... our newly christened foray into the wonderful world of group think, self-deception and the place they call Wall Street. Now we're not here to bash the analysts. (Really, some of our best friends are analysts. Besides some of them are very, very smart.) But we have noted that, from time to time, The Street gets so wound up in its own esoteric equations that it forgets the bigger picture. Which is to say, just 'cause you heard it from Wall Street doesn't mean it's true.
Our first case in point: The cable industry has completed its infrastructure upgrade.
Oh, please. No highly competitive, technologically-driven industry has EVER completed its infrastructure upgrades. There's always something newer, more appealing to customers, or coming from competitors that the industry has to try to at least match or preferably beat. Thus ever since cable first balleyhooed its "fully completed" $80 billion (or $60 billion or $100 billion, the numbers tend to change) upgrade, the techies we know well enough to get the truth out of have admitted that more spending is on the way. So when Comcast last week announced plans for $5.7 billion in capex expenditures for 2007, it really shouldn't have come as all that huge a surprise.
Our second favorite fallacy of the day: DBS is doomed.
Finished, they say. Kaput. Killed off by the magic of the triple play. Once again ... oh, please. Sure the consumer satellite industry is facing much tougher competition than it once did. And yes, the lack of a robust two-way pipeline is a drawback. But satellite still has the best quality video product around ... and video is, after all, the long-time killer app of entertainment. Not only that but recent moves from DBS circles points toward plans to capitalize both on a quality video product and on the forward march of Moore's law. From the latter point, the ever-increasing storage capacity of DVRs has allowed DBS to tout its own VOD products. And sure it's not "true" VOD. But do you really think consumers care? On the former point, just take a look at DIRECTV's big HD play. Think that isn't going to appeal to the tens of thousands of folks who just rushed out to by HD sets in time for the Super Bowl?
And for our third "fact:" AT&T has lost interest in buying its way into DBS ...
Has anyone out there considered AT&T's history? (Remember when they tried to merge with TCI? Or with DIRECTV? Heck, mergers are the crack cocaine of the former-now-once-again big Bell.) Besides, AT&T's Homezone experiment with DISH is doing quite nicely thank you while its U-verse product languishes in the never-never land of Microsoft software completion. So do you really think the AT&T big wigs aren't working on due diligences of DISH? For one last time ... oh, please. www.SkyReport.com - used with permission
by Evie Haskell evie@Mediabiz.com
Welcome to the "Did you really believe THAT?" edition of SkyBOX ... our newly christened foray into the wonderful world of group think, self-deception and the place they call Wall Street. Now we're not here to bash the analysts. (Really, some of our best friends are analysts. Besides some of them are very, very smart.) But we have noted that, from time to time, The Street gets so wound up in its own esoteric equations that it forgets the bigger picture. Which is to say, just 'cause you heard it from Wall Street doesn't mean it's true.
Our first case in point: The cable industry has completed its infrastructure upgrade.
Oh, please. No highly competitive, technologically-driven industry has EVER completed its infrastructure upgrades. There's always something newer, more appealing to customers, or coming from competitors that the industry has to try to at least match or preferably beat. Thus ever since cable first balleyhooed its "fully completed" $80 billion (or $60 billion or $100 billion, the numbers tend to change) upgrade, the techies we know well enough to get the truth out of have admitted that more spending is on the way. So when Comcast last week announced plans for $5.7 billion in capex expenditures for 2007, it really shouldn't have come as all that huge a surprise.
Our second favorite fallacy of the day: DBS is doomed.
Finished, they say. Kaput. Killed off by the magic of the triple play. Once again ... oh, please. Sure the consumer satellite industry is facing much tougher competition than it once did. And yes, the lack of a robust two-way pipeline is a drawback. But satellite still has the best quality video product around ... and video is, after all, the long-time killer app of entertainment. Not only that but recent moves from DBS circles points toward plans to capitalize both on a quality video product and on the forward march of Moore's law. From the latter point, the ever-increasing storage capacity of DVRs has allowed DBS to tout its own VOD products. And sure it's not "true" VOD. But do you really think consumers care? On the former point, just take a look at DIRECTV's big HD play. Think that isn't going to appeal to the tens of thousands of folks who just rushed out to by HD sets in time for the Super Bowl?
And for our third "fact:" AT&T has lost interest in buying its way into DBS ...
Has anyone out there considered AT&T's history? (Remember when they tried to merge with TCI? Or with DIRECTV? Heck, mergers are the crack cocaine of the former-now-once-again big Bell.) Besides, AT&T's Homezone experiment with DISH is doing quite nicely thank you while its U-verse product languishes in the never-never land of Microsoft software completion. So do you really think the AT&T big wigs aren't working on due diligences of DISH? For one last time ... oh, please. www.SkyReport.com - used with permission