HDTV spreading, cable charging forward

[Mike123abc]

From USA Today:

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/techinnovations/2002-10-01-high-definition_x.htm

 

Note the bottom of the article.  E/D* will have a real problem in a few years.  Cable companies in all the top markets will be flooded with HDTV.  Who would take a sat dish in a market with HDTV cable?  Satellite will find itself being the low cost low quality provider soon.

IF E* and D* merge, they need to make the basic box HDTV capable with Composit, Component and Svideo out (do downconversion to 480i, or up conversion to 720/1080 just like the 6000 does now).

With optional add in cards for:

1: Over the Air/cable reception

2: DVI/1394 output

 

If their basic box had the ability to downconvert HDTV channels like the 6000 does, they could replace channels with HDTV feeds as needed without having to simulcast in HDTV and non HDTV.

I hope that they have the vision to be ready for HDTV, it would be irony if DBS became the low cost/low quality provider...  The Kmart of television...

[Mike123abc]

Just after I posted that and look what I found:

http://www.charlotte.com/mld/charlotte/business/technology/personal_technology/4198622.htm

Seems like the press is thinking the same thing... DBS needs HDTV or Cable will win.

[Charles Oliva]

This is all nice speculation, but pure bunk. As a whole Cable TV is no more ready for HDTV than DBS is. This quite frankly is starting to remind me of the broadband rollout. It's there, just we can't do the last mile. While the cable ops in the top 50-75 markets may be able to pass the current level of HD programming available. If say all of the premium cable, variety, sports channels offered a HD channel in addition to it's analog offering these cable systems would run into the same bandwidth crunch that DBS will, and thus would also have to replace all of it's current STB's in order to regain that bandwidth. In most of the cable ops in markets outside the top 75, there's no way it can do much if any HDTV, in many cases they did Digital Cable on the cheap, ie. they simply are using the unused analog spectrum and place the digital serivce there without upgrading the cable.

BTW, with less than 2 months to go before the 1st DTV deadline extension, already 420 stations have filed for a 2nd extension.

[Scott Greczkowski]

This is all nice speculation, but pure bunk.

I disagree with this 100%.

Cable will be adding HDTV very quickly in the next two years.

See my feeling on this in http://www.dbstalk.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=8187

Your Cable will carry ALL the local stations in their Digital Format (HDTV or not) while Dish Network will be showing Analog downcoverts from the Digital signals. (This is WHEN the Analog stations go dark)

There is NO WAY for them to carry 212 DMA's in their Digital Format once and if all the analog stations go dark.

This is the cable advantage.

[Mike123abc]

Most of the top 100 markets have upgraded their capacity substantially over the past few years. Any cable system capable of doing digital probably has more bandwidth than DBS. A DBS satellite using 8PSK with turbo coding (note this would be a major upgrade to current system, and assumes all boxes replaced after a merger) can get about 50mbit/sec per transponder (this is a very optimistic number, actual will be lower).

This gives them 1600 MBit/sec per satellite or 4800 Mbit/sec total. Now they also use spot beams, right now looks like a merged ED* would use slightly more than 1 satellite slot worth of transponders for LIL to 210 DMAs. So, they have 3200 Mbit/sec for national.

A digital cable system is capable of sending 30mbit/sec through a single 6MHZ channel. A modern one could get up to 40mbit/sec. For example my cable system here in a market in the 140 range carries 72 analog, 100 digital, and 42 music channels. 750MHZ capacity is common for modern cable systems. This gives the local cable company between 2-3 satellites worth of bandwidth, and they only have to do LIL to one market. The local cable company could carry 200-250 HDTV channels if they dropped analog.

[Charles Oliva]

Quoted from Scott Greczkowski:
Cable will be adding HDTV very quickly in the next two years.

Then how come Discovery HD is only on a handful of cable ops? This is a channel that cable can make money on, unlike HBO/Sho HD.

I can't wait til April '03 when ESPN-HD becomes available and the excuses that cable ops use as to why they can't/won't carry it.
Likley excuses:
We didn't built HD capabilities into our system.
We can't insert local ad's into the feed, and our contract prohibit us from charging for this channel.
HD is a niche item, and we'd rather introduce other "digital" products first.

Your Cable will carry ALL the local stations in their Digital Format (HDTV or not) while Dish Network will be showing Analog downcoverts from the Digital signals. (This is WHEN the Analog stations go dark)

So why are cable ops fight digital OTA must carry so hard.


I'm not doubting that there will be a major increase in HD programming in the next 2-3 years. But all this talk that Cable is going to provide all of it is what I question. As the saying goes, I'll believe it, when I see it.

[Scott Greczkowski]

Then how come Discovery HD is only on a handful of cable ops? This is a channel that cable can make money on, unlike HBO/Sho HD.

The problem now is that they are having trouble getting HD Equipment to the customers.

Seems as though in some areas some folks are waiting months for equipment to arrive.

I talked to someone at COX and they are READY to diploy at many of their systems, however they have no HD Equipment to guive to the customers.

There was a big article about this in on of the trade magazines last month (I believe it was Broadcasting and Cable)

[Charles Oliva]

Quoted from Scott Greczkowski:The problem now is that they are having trouble getting HD Equipment to the customers. Seems as though in some areas some folks are waiting months for equipment to arrive.

I talked to someone at COX and they are READY to diploy at many of their systems, however they have no HD Equipment to guive to the customers


Quoted by Charles Oliva:
This quite frankly is starting to remind me of the broadband rollout. It's there, just we can't do the last mile.

Yup, like I said.

[Martyva]

Cox cable owns Discovery. Hasn't anyone noticed they've added HDTV to 3 cities since July one?

[Mike123abc]

The same thing will probably happen to ED* if there is a merger. They claim that they will replace all 18million settop boxes in 3 years... that will be hard to do.

[Ontarian]

If a cable system is using 256-QAM modulation, that gives them 39 Megabits/Second of Data which translates into about 12-13 digital channels in 6 MHZ of bandwidth. If they are built up to 750 MHZ or 860 MHZ that gives them literally hundreds of digital channels without having to remove analog capacity now or in the near future. Some cable systems are using 64-QAM which gives only 27 Megabits/Second or 8 digital channels per 6 MHZ. In my area the cable system is 860 MHZ and has about 170 digital channels now and the capacity for about 600 more if they needed it.