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2011-12 Season Ratings - Fall

Discussion in 'TV Show Talk' started by phrelin, Sep 20, 2011.

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  1. Oct 24, 2011 #61 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here's Sunday #5.

    Like all Fall Sundays what everyone, including me, shows in their tables has no bearing on what really happened.

    Here's what the prime time schedule looked like in my DMA, the San Francisco Bay Area.

    In all of the Pacific Coast DMA's the schedules were similar - essentially no World Series or football in prime time.

    What I can tell from the ratings reports is that from 8:00 to 11:00 across the nation, CBS had about the same number of viewers it had in previous weeks. The same is true for ABC from 9:00 to 11:00.

    Also across the nation, the World Series on Fox stole viewers from Sunday Night Football.

    That leaves us with the premier of "Once Upon a Time" on ABC at 8:00 which we haven't watched yet. On the surface, the numbers look promising until you realize that on March 6 at 8:00 ABC premiered "Secret Millionaire" which pulled 3.3/9 -12.61 million but only pulled 2.1/6 - 8.52 in its April 10 finale.

    I've included the lower table to get some clarity. Compared to prior weeks, the total number of viewers watching ABC and CBS at 8:00 increased by 5.5± million. It appears that next week to retain the kind of ratings "Once Upon a Time" received, it would have to
    • pull viewers from Fox's "The Simpsons" and a series premier of "Allen Gregory" and from the Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles on NBC; or
    • draw 5+ million folks who so far this fall don't normally watch broadcast network TV on Sunday at 8:00.
    IMHO by December "Once Upon a Time" will be drawing an increase in total viewers to the time slot, but only enough to just be competitive with "Amazing Race." It will not continue to give "Desperate Housewives" the boost seen last night. And, of course, it didn't help "Pan Am" at all.

    Given the likely high cost of "Once Upon a Time", whether the ABC and Disney suits will consider that a win I don't know.

    Projecting out to the Winter schedule, right now NBC plans to offer "The Apprentice" at that time slot. No threat there to the established CBS and Fox audience nor to "Once Upon a Time".

    On the other hand, maybe "Once Upon a Time" will be so good it will continue to draw a demo in excess of 3.5.
     
  2. Oct 25, 2011 #62 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here's Monday #6.

    Again, the World Series distorts this somewhat as none of it was on in prime time on the West Coast. I've omitted the 10 pm ratings of 4.3/10 - 14.24 million because when added it grossly misrepresents the audience available at that time slot. The problem is that far more viewers in the Pacific Time Zone are available at 7:00.

    With that said, CBS continues to control the demo on Monday nights and its Monday two hours of comedy seems to have stabilized going into Nielsen November Sweeps (October 27 - November 23, 2011). This means that the other networks have to pry loose viewers from CBS', somehow get the 10 million 18-49 age group watching cable to switch, or get somebody not regularly watching TV Monday night to turn on the "boob tube."

    The only other thing of interest is that "Hart of Dixie" on The CW has shown a gain in viewers the past two weeks.
     
  3. Oct 26, 2011 #63 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here's Tuesday #6.

    There's not much to say here since this in no way represents the regular competition we'll see next week, the first Tuesday of Nielsen November Sweeps. Just another night led by CBS.
     
  4. Oct 27, 2011 #64 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here's Wednesday #6.

    This was the last night before the beginning of Nielsen November Sweeps, plus Game 6 of the World Series was rained out. So it was a night of mostly reruns.

    The shift of World Series games because of rain has some significant impacts on the Fox schedule. The "Bones" season premier will wait until next Thursday and presumably the return of Friday "Fringe" episodes will be put off a week. (I assume even if there is no Game 7, Fox won't further confuse things by moving back to the regular schedule tomorrow but we know about ass-u-me!).
     
  5. Oct 28, 2011 #65 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here's Thursday #6 and a demonstration of how the ratings system can really foul up or benefit despite the best laid plans.

    This was theoretically the first night of Nielsen November Sweeps. But these ratings are useless for purposes of evaluating regular programming.

    Fox. Despite the rain delaying these last two games of this World Series forcing Fox to shuffle its lineup and not being able to premier its Thursday lineup, Thursday was a win for Fox. What was thought to be a relatively uninteresting Series became a hot item.

    For ratings purposes, the problem is that in Pacific Time Zone the Game was not in prime time. It began at 5:00. I don't even show the ratings for these games at 10:00. But for discussion purposes I added the 10:30EDT/7:30PDT ratings. Using the preliminary ratings, here's what happens to the ratings as the commuters in the West get off work:

    8:00/5:00 4.1/12 -15.61 million
    8:30/5:30 5.4/15 - 19.46 million
    9:00/6:00 6.1/15 - 21.18 million
    9:30/6:30 6.6/16 - 21.78 million
    10:30/7:30 6.6/17 -20.49 million

    About the other networks....

    CBS pretty much held its own, winning the night for routine programming and probably doing very well in the Pacific Time Zone.

    ABC ran the annual 8:00 offering of "It's The Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown" producing much better ratings than "Charlie's Angels" and somewhat better ratings than last year. It's medical lineup of "Grey's Anatomy" did pretty well as normal.

    The CW gained a little from the Series, indicating something about its audience.

    NBC. "Adapt or die" apparently is not thrown around in meetings at NBC. The NoBody Cares network planned last ...what, April???... to go with their Thursday lineup to compete against regular programming on the other nets on the first night of November Sweeps. And compete they did, getting ratings that barely beat The CW.

    Of course a day or two ago when it was clear there was going to be a Series game on Thursday, they could have inserted reruns. Revenue implications wouldn't have been much worse than wasting new episodes last night.


    So what are folks planning for tonight to compete with Game 7? Well, as reported in CBS to Pull Original Series Episodes Due to Game 7 of World Series:
    This will be really interesting. The move by CBS might actually keep NBC's premiers from being a complete and total disaster.
     
  6. Oct 29, 2011 #66 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here's Friday #6.

    Fox did very, very well with the World Series. But see the time zone discussion for yesterday above.

    ABC lost viewers to the World Series.

    CBS decided not to waste new episodes of programming against the World Series and ran reruns which still allowed them to win the night for total viewers for programming other than the World Series.

    The CW wasn't significantly impacted one way or another.

    OK now...

    NBC. On September 20, 2010 "Chuck" premiered with ratings of 2.1/6 - 6.06 million compared to last night's 1.0/3 -3.39 million. Probably it will come up slightly, but basically NBC has decided to starve the last season.

    On the other hand, the season premier of "Grimm" probably benefited from there being no competition in the West from Fox or CBS. The show pulled a solid adults 18-49 for a Friday non-sports telecast. While it is being repeated on Syfy Tuesday, an adaptable network would have announced Wednesday night a repeat on NBC tonight, Saturday. Oh well....
     
  7. Oct 31, 2011 #67 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here is the first Sunday of Nielsen November Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    For the sake of discussion, I'm going to pretend that there are no time anomalies in this competition even though NBC's "Sunday Night Football" doesn't run in prime time on the West Coast and the CBS schedule wasn't shifted by a half-hour in the East Coast because of an NFL game overrun.

    ABC appears to have a solid show at 8:00 with "Once Upon A Time". Ground is lost with the last season of "Desperate Housewives" at 9:00. "Pan Am" is a loser at 10:00.

    CBS "The Amazing Race" continues to do adequately at 8:00. "The Good Wife" at 9:00 and "CSI: Miami" are weak performers but they are against football on NBC.

    Fox continues to do well in the demo with its animated lineup, though the "Allen Gregory" premier was weak.

    The real battle here is between ABC and CBS. For the night ABC won the demo while CBS won the total viewers. That might be considered good for ABC except that for the first two hours, in the demo Fox gave ABC a run beating them at the hour.
     
  8. Nov 1, 2011 #68 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here is the first Monday of Nielsen November Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    As you may have noted yesterday, I'm not comparing the Sweeps numbers to prior weeks. This is because you can't compare regular programming results mixed in with World Series games. And, for the same reason, you can't compare the results from the same week last year to this year as the comparable night last year had game 5 (SF Giants at Texas Rangers).

    But we can look at the choices networks have made and how it appears to be playing out in the ratings.

    ABC ran the "Scared Shrekless" on Halloween at 8:00. That choice cost them nearly 50% of their normal "Dancing with the Stars" viewers. But, hey, they are owned by Disney and even though the Shrek franchise is owned by DreamWorks Animation which is a subsidiary of Viacom ... it, still makes no sense. I really don't think "DWTS" viewers were trick-or-treating.

    By 9:00 "DWTS" viewers were back in their normal numbers. And "Castle" at 10:00 continues to have a good demo and leads in total viewers.

    CBS won the night in the demo. That's all that counts even though the network was nearly as strong as ABC in total viewers without any big reality competition show. Therefore any choices made going into this first Monday of Sweeps were winners. And the CBS choice is to provide their viewers with the same popular scripted programming week-after-week, no exceptions.

    Fox probably made a bundle on their World Series. In the process, they continued to destroy their scripted lineup. "X-Factor" will probably do OK this week and of course "American Idol" will do well in the Winter ratings. I really don't know why they don't get rid of their scripted show programming people. They would probably do better as The Game Show network running a combination of reality competition shows and sports.

    Finally moving "House" to 9:00 this year was a mistake. It means they've sacrificed their highest rated scripted show. It gives "Terra Nova" no lead in and "House" a crappy lead in. And, of course, viewers with short attention spans went on to other shows since baseball was on two out of the last four Mondays.

    NBC had an average demo of 1.2 and pulled in the same number of viewers in three hours that Fox got in two. What else can one say.

    The premier of "Rock Center with Brian Williams" did worse than the premier of "The Playboy Club" but it is so much cheaper to produce.

    The CW decided to rerun some "Ringer" episodes instead of regular programs. I really doubt it's going to help "Ringer" ratings tonight, but we'll see.
     
  9. Nov 2, 2011 #69 of 153
    phrelin

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    On Sunday and Monday there is distortion due to the NFL games ratings. On Monday night the ratings for ESPN's Monday Night Football were 4.7 in the demo with 12.03 million viewers. The shows on broadcast TV on Monday have to deal with the loss of that audience by appealing to other viewers. But what does that mean?
     
  10. Nov 2, 2011 #70 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here is the first Tuesday of Nielsen November Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    Again, week-to-week and year-to-year comparisons don't offer much insight because of the World Series games impact on Fox last week and the comparable night last year. But we can look at the results of decisions made by the networks.

    CBS overall won the night in demo ratings and total viewer ratings. "NCIS" continues to pull very strong ratings for scripted programming at 8:00. "NCIS:LA" won the 9:00 hour in total viewers against "DWTS Results Show" and in the demo against Fox's combination of "New Girl" and "Raising Hope." And "Unforgettable" continues to top its competition at 10:00.

    ABC ends up as #3 in the demo and #2 in total viewers at 8:00 and 9:00. Overall the ratings are adequate.

    NBC's "The Biggest Loser" probably earns a profit. "Parenthood" got a slight, but noticeable, bump in the ratings at 10:00.

    The CW made a mistake by renewing "90210". And running reruns of "Ringer" last night did nothing for the show's ratings while we "Hart of Dixie" fans were disappointed.

    Fox. By becoming The Game Show Network for three weeks, running baseball or "X-Factor" the past three Tuesdays, Fox sacrificed big time any momentum its Tuesday shows may have had:

    [​IMG]

    From TVbytheNumbers:
    Yeah, but baseball would have done just fine on TBS. What has been taken away is viewer support for Fox's "rest of the year" schedule.

    The World Series generated some strong revenue for the quarter for News Corp, the home of the "what happened 5 minutes ago" attention span. Next spring, everyone there will be puzzling over the decline of their regular schedule.

    I suppose to push ratings this coming Spring, they could run "American Idol" for an hour and two minutes at 8:00 Mon-Fri, followed by "House" on Monday, "Glee" on Tuesday, "The Finder" on Wednesday, "Bones" on Thursday, and "Alcatraz" on Friday.

    But really, they should just run "AI" part of the week and "So You Think You Can Dance" the rest of the week. That way they could really become The Game Show Broadcast Network. I'm sure it would just as profitable as any plans they have now.:rolleyes:
     
  11. Nov 3, 2011 #71 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here is the first Wednesday of Nielsen November Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    Fox. Two interesting things about last night:
    • "X-Factor" won the demo in its two hours with an average of 3.9.
    • ABC got a 3.5 average for three hours plus CBS got a 3.5 and more viewers at 8:00.
    So I'm not sure this is much of a win for Fox.

    Some pundits noted that "X-Factor" slipped but I don't know how one could conclude that since Fox moved it all over the schedule for the past two weeks.

    CBS won the night in terms of most viewers, again. And the demos for the three hours were good.

    ABC's Wednesday comedy lineup is doing well. And "Revenge" won the 10:00 demo in a big jump.

    The CW has a problem with its Wednesday lineup.

    NBC made a programming decision about 8:30 plus ran a rerun of "Harry's Law" last week. Those decisions may have given away about a million older viewers - you know, people like me who like consistency which is why we like CBS. Of course, according to everybody but CBS, we over-49 folks don't count.

    Whether it's good or bad that the Nielsen Sweeps periods ratings will influence programming, it's still a fact. So for Monday through Wednesday the average Sweeps ratings look like this:

    CBS 3.5 - 12.9 million for 3 hours a night
    FOX 3.1 - 8.5 million for 2 hours a night
    ABC 2.8 - 11.6 million for 3 hours a night
    NBC 1.5 - 4.2 million for 3 hours a night

    When I reluctantly add Sunday which was the first day of November Sweeps with a full lineup of regular programming and gives NBC credit for Sunday Night Football, NBC still comes in fourth for total viewers and barely beats out ABC in the demo. It looks like this:

    CBS 3.2 - 12.2 million for 3 hours a night
    FOX 3.2 - 8.1 million for 2 hours a night
    NBC 3.0 - 7.8 million for 3 hours a night
    ABC 2.9 - 10.9 million for 3 hours a night
     
  12. Nov 4, 2011 #72 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here is the first Thursday of Nielsen November Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    CBS again won the night in total viewers and though technically Fox's average 3.5 demo was higher, CBS 3.3 demo for 3 hours was really a winner.

    Fox's "X-Factor" hit about its average for the date and the "Bones" premier did well.

    ABC's 9:00-11:00 lineup appears to be losing its appeal with age. For instance, on 11/5/2009 "Grey,s" had 4.8/12 - 13.34 million and "Practice" had 3.6/10 - 9.59. Last night's "Grey's Anatomy" ratings weren't bad, but they weren't great. And "Private Practice" seems to me to be heading for the graveyard.

    NBC barely beat The CW in the 8:00 hour. "Community" and "Parks & Recreation" are surely in their last season. "The Office" and "30 Rock" are still somewhat competitive in the demo.

    At 10:00 on 11/5/2009 "Leno" pulled 1.6/5 - 4.68, while last night "Prime Suspect" pulled 1.2/3 - 4.47. "Prime Suspect" has to be canceled which is too bad as it is a pretty good police procedural. It is ironic how the affiliates complained that "Leno" wasn't giving them the lead into their news shows that "real programming" provides. I really am surprised that Comcast didn't sell NBC to the affiliates in the NBCU buy.

    The CW had its usual Thursday, which is its best night.
     
  13. Nov 5, 2011 #73 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here is the first Friday of Nielsen November Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    CBS as usual walked away with the total viewers, but did only tie for second in the demo at 8:00. One has to be impressed with those "Blue Bloods" numbers at 10:00 on a Friday.

    What I like to remember is that at 10:00 pm on Friday November 6, 2009, "The Jay Leno Show" pulled 1.2/4 - 4.60 million. As far as I'm concerned the other three "big networks" pulled "Leno" ratings for the entire night. It's informative that no one, particularly affiliates, is vilifying the network programmers like everyone did to NBC in 2009.

    ABC. Last week I said ABC lost viewers to the World Series. Apparently not. "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition" continues its slide from last spring on Sundays. Moving it to Friday was probably a good move. And "20/20" isn't doing all that hot.

    Fox. In terms of costs, "Kitchen Nightmares" is probably well-placed and profitable. "Fringe" is ...well... it's in its last season.

    NBC. "Chuck" is ...well... it's in its last season. "Grimm", on the other hand, won it's hour in the demo and was second in total viewers with 1.8/5 - 5.92 million. The problem is it cost many times more to produce than "Leno" did on November 6, 2009.

    The CW was normal for The CW.

    We've completed a Sunday through Friday cycle for Nielsen November Sweeps (ignoring the previous week which was screwed up with the World Series). Here's what things look like:

    [​IMG]

    Whether you look at the full period, or Monday-Friday to eliminate the skew of NBC's "Sunday Night Football", CBS is the clear winner in programming. On Tuesday through Thursday they pull the highest number of total viewers with decent demos, on Monday they win the demo, on Friday they win both, and on Sunday they win total viewers other than "Football".

    Fox is second in the demo while ABC is second in total viewers.

    NBC's decline in programming talent has put it clearly in fourth place. Without Sunday the network's average ratings for the week was 1.6 in the demo and 5.1 million viewers. Basically most of the entire lineup is pulling "Leno" ratings.

    The CW has a problem unless they are getting online viewing which is possible given their target demo.
     
  14. Nov 7, 2011 #74 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here's the second Sunday of November Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    There isn't much new to comment on here except "The Good Wife" which probably isn't correct because there was a football overrun in 17% of the country but I can't get the 9:30 ratings. And this is getting to be a problem for CBS because the one thing they offer the rest of the week is consistency.

    From the NY Times article N.F.L. Delays Anger ‘Good Wife’ Fans:
    Whatever happened to the old announcement by sportscasters "and now we will join "60 Minutes" already in progress"???
     
  15. Nov 7, 2011 #75 of 153
    Lord Vader

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    I noticed for the first time while watching CSI: Miami (I watched its recording after the Ravens-Steelers game), there was a commercial announcement by CBS that "during Sunday nights of the NFL season, CSI: Miami will often begin later than normal; therefore, please set your DVR to record it for 2 hours and not 1."

    Interesting.
     
  16. Nov 7, 2011 #76 of 153
    phrelin

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    That is interesting! They are acknowledging viewers who might not be in the Live+Same Day ratings group that advertisers favor.
     
  17. Nov 7, 2011 #77 of 153
    Lord Vader

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    CSI: Miami is one of the season pass shows I record. I always remember to change the stop time to 1 hour later during the football season.
     
  18. Nov 7, 2011 #78 of 153
    seern

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    I have stopped recording this show but last year added 2 hours to the end time.
     
  19. Nov 8, 2011 #79 of 153
    timf

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    I despise CBS's scheduling practices on Sunday night. Fox always schedules double header games to run until 7:30 with postgame coverage until 8:00 in order to account for the fact that late games NEVER end by 7:00. On single header weeks, they schedule reruns for the 7:00 hour that they preempt as necessary to keep the rest of primetime on schedule.

    CBS insists on scheduling 60 Minutes for 7:00 even when there's no way football games will be done by then. Even worse is when the scheduled game ends relatively on time and they then switch to the end of another game rather than keeping primetime on schedule. The practice is entirely a ploy to combat DVRs and get people to watch more of the CBS Sunday lineup by recording extra shows beyond what they really want to watch. Yet, I continue to put up with it since that's when they air The Amazing Race.
     
  20. Nov 8, 2011 #80 of 153
    phrelin

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    Here's the second Monday of November Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    NBC. I'm starting with NBC only because I can't help but mention that for November 9, 2009 the TVbytheNumbers headline read in part "Jay Leno slips below 4 million viewers" when The Jay Leno Show pulled 1.2/3 - 3.97. Brian Williams has lower ratings and the last hour of "The Sing Off" is about comparable. Boy, if I were an affiliate I'd be begging NBC to put Jay Leno back on a 10:00.:sure:

    ABC's lineup did about normal.

    CBS' lineup did about normal though I should note that the ratings for "Two and a Half Men" on November 9, 2009 were 4.4/11 - 14.12 million while this year it pulled a remarkable 5.1/12 - 14.52 million.

    The CW. By cleverly scheduling reruns of "Ringer" last Monday, it appears programmers were able to further drive down ratings for their Monday shows while doing nothing for "Ringer."

    And now to my nominee for replacing NBC in two years as the least competently run network, Fox. The Hollywood Reporter's headline this morning says 'Terra Nova' Improves Significantly which is a half-truth. The show's ratings on October 17 right before Fox decided to try out being The Game Show Network were 2.7/7 - 7.97 million while last night's ratings were 2.6/6 - 7.67 million. So while the ratings were a significant improvement over last week, they still haven't fully recovered from the damage Fox programmers caused when they decided scripted programming just isn't that important to them.

    Which brings us to "House." Fox premiered this show two weeks after premier week and it drew a 3.9/9 - 9.77 million. The following week, October 10, they basically demolished their lineup for a baseball playoff overrun causing "House" ratings to drop to 2.7/7 - 6.85 million. On October 17 the ratings recovered a bit to 3.1/7 - 8.37 million. The following week Fox destroyed the recover by showing the World Series which for that hour pulled 3.4/8 - 11.93 million, a rating likely close to what "House" would have received if Fox were a regular TV network rather than The Game Show Network. So last night's 2.7/6 - 7.54 million looks like "House" should be canceled when in fact Fox should be just move to cable placed next in the guide to the real "Game Show Network."

    :rant:
    Yeah, you can ignore this rant but I'm irked.

    I'm particularly tired of this catering to sports BS. Ordinary Americans apparently have decided to dump billions of hard earned, and now, scarce dollars into professional sports. In 1931 in the depths of the Great Depression Babe Ruth's salary maxed out at an equivalent of $1.1 million in today's dollars. No sports star should be paid more than that and no team should earn enough money from its fans to be able to pay more than that.

    Now back to your regularly scheduled posts....
    :rant:
     

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