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2011-12 Season Ratings - Winter

Discussion in 'TV Show Talk' started by phrelin, Jan 3, 2012.

  1. Church AV Guy

    Church AV Guy Godfather

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    It seems that the CW network cannot sustain these low ratings for much longer. Can they even be making money with these ratings? Are we going to see the CW following UPN and The WB? I hope not, but it looks inevitable.:(

    NBC seems to not have recovered from the Leno "experiment," or should I say, debacle? I know the viewing public is fickle, but I just can't see anyone looking at a show and saying, "Oh, that's on NBC. They did that Leno thing, so I'm not watching." I watch a lot more on the NBC Universal USA Network than NBC. Maybe they need to get someone from programming at USA to look into programming at NBC.

    Maybe I'm wrong, but it almost seems that both of these broadcast networks are circling the drain.:(

    Is FOX too far behind? They have a few really good shows, but overall, the ratings are pretty poor--not dismal, but poor.:( It's a sad time for broadcasters I fear. It wasn't this bad a few years back, was it?
     
  2. Holydoc

    Holydoc Legend

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    Panhandle, FL
    Hmm... I would not consider the ratings poor for Fox. They have the number 1 show every wed and thur. Fox has number 2 and 3 ratings locked each week in the top 10 shows.

    Though CBS has some really good shows right now, Fox is holding its own, IMO. 10.9 viewers for CBS with 8.7 for FOX. NBC and the CW...well, that is a different story.
     
  3. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    Here's the final Thursday of Nielsen February Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    Fox.
    There is a reason why News Corp insisted that affiliates agree to pass on to them $1 a month in retransmission fees, and by insisted I mean pay or lose your affiliation.

    Thursday is a good night to examine the competition and particularly Fox. Let's look at half-hour ratings, comparing Fox to CBS, to see who got the blue ribbon for demo eyes to sell:

    [​IMG]

    Two things are obvious. First, Fox only won one half-hour. Second Fox only has two hours to sell advertisers.

    Simply put, by the last Thursday of Nielsen February Sweeps, "American Idol" ratings had declined to a new low and could only win 30 minutes. And when you compare "Idol" ratings for the 8:00 hour to last year, it's time to panic if you're a suit at Fox:

    [​IMG]

    Of course, we're going to see spin aimed at advertisers. It will read something like Fox won the sweeps in the 8:00 to 10:00 competition because it looks like this:

    [​IMG]

    When you add all the "Idol" hours into the total it clearly gives the impression Fox won. But, in fact, even with running "Idol" 2 hours last week, Fox was #3 at 9:00 in the averages and last night it was #4.

    From a ratings perspective Fox has no general appeal programming for 2012-13. Sure they can buy expensive sports and run "Idol" into the ground.

    I have an opinion about this. A decade from now much the 18-49 demo will not be watching broadcast TV leaving the audience at 50+.

    For the three hours of prime time, CBS last night attracted 42% of the 50+ viewers, Fox (two hours only) with "Idol" 30%, ABC 18%, NBC 7%, and The CW 3%.

    Any one of the networks could choose not to ignore the 50+ demo, but right now CBS is the only one that has made that choice. Of course, a decade from now many of today's 50+ folks will be dead while more baby boomers with different tastes will be over 50, also may not be watching broadcast TV, and maybe CBS will have lost it. Who knows?

    ABC. "Grey's Anatomy" continued at a series low and without the 2-hour story-arc tie in to "Grey's", "Private Practice" continued its season slide.

    CBS. As noted above "Big Bang Theory" won its half hour despite slipping a little, "Rob" also slipped, "Person of Interest" tied for the demo at 9:00 for the first time, and though winning 10:00 "The Mentalist" slipped. CBS, as usual, won the 50+ for the night.

    NBC placed 3rd in the 9:00 hour because of "The Office." They obviously missed the obvious by running reruns of "Grimm" at 10:00 on Thursday instead of moving new episodes of "Grimm" into the 10:00 Tuesday slot.

    The CW. Thursday was the networks strong night, so they decided to do something about that.:nono2:
     
  4. Church AV Guy

    Church AV Guy Godfather

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    I just can't understand why they would do this in a sweeps period.:confused: It defies any logic! Not just a rerun of Vampire Diaries, but a rerun of Supernatural in the Secret Circle time slot?!? Not that anyone can answer this question, but, WHAT ARE THEY THINKING? Or, maybe better put, WHAT ARE THEY SMOKING? Wouldn't anyone know that you need to put new episodes of all your shows in a sweeps period, or, a "special" that will produce better ratings--but not reruns!

    Is the conventional thinking that American Idol has run its course, or that the loss of the original panel of judges has alienated the viewers, or is there another reason? CBS must be really happy with TBBT!
     
  5. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    Here's the final Friday of Nielsen February Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    And here's the averages for the first two hours competition:

    [​IMG]

    One observation about the four week averages is that on Friday's only 48% of the Thursday demo is watching broadcast TV whereas 67% of the Thursday 50+ crowd watched on Fridays.

    One observation about last night. The highest one hour demo was 1.9 and CBS won the night with a three hour demo average of 1.6 and a 50+ average of 8 million while attracting 43% of the viewers. The issue for the broadcast networks will become can Friday continue to be profitable?

    ABC's demo tied CBS in the two hour competition, for what that's worth. It is clear the Disney/ABC suits figured out that Friday is a night of cheap programming, so they were the investment-return winners for Fridays.

    CBS will be dumping "A Gifted Man" which dropped the network's 9:00 demo rating to 3rd.

    Fox continues to bleed money on "Fringe."

    NBC. "Grimm" won the 9:00 hour in the demo.

    The CW ran more reruns. :shrug:
     
  6. frederic1943

    frederic1943 Icon

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    Anna Torv (Olivia) is Rupert Murdoch's niece. :D
     
  7. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    Here's the final Sunday of Nielsen February Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    And for curiosity sake here's the 8:00 to 10:00 averages for the sweeps period:

    [​IMG]

    Sunday's during this sweeps period have been meaningless. The first Sunday NBC had The Super Bowl, the second Sunday CBS had The Emmy's, and last night ABC had The Academy Awards. This pretty much made the ratings worthless as an indicator of viewer interest in the regularly scheduled programming. Since The Super Bowl was the most watched of the three specials, NBC has bragging rights for Sunday.
     
  8. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    Here's the final Monday of Nielsen February Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    Fox ran the Daytona 500 which had been rained out Sunday. This gave it a ratings boost which helps its averages for the two hour competition during February Sweeps shown here:

    [​IMG]

    Without last night, Fox's averages were 2.2 in the demo, 4.5 in the 50+ and 6.7 total, making their regular programming #4 in the two hour race.

    ABC. Last night ABC found itself #4 in the first two hours and, because of Fox having the Daytona 500 last night, #4 for February Sweeps. It also ended up #3 in the 10:00 slot in the February Sweeps demo, but was nearly tied with CBS for the 50+ crowd at that hour.

    CBS. As usual, the CBS comedies do well. But the network ends up #2 in the two hour competition because of NBC's "The Voice". It's a tough night as ABC will be bringing "Dancing with the Stars" back March 19.

    NBC was #1 in the two hour race and #1 at 10:00 for the February Sweeps using its regular programming. Good for NBC!

    Unfortunately, NBC may have to worry about "Smash." I don't understand this. We record and watch all three shows, but if our only choice was to watch one of the shows live it would be "Smash". As far as we're concerned "Hawaii Five-0" is only slightly more interesting than "CSI:Miami" which we stopped watching a couple of years ago and "Castle", while enjoyable, is lightweight. But what do we know?

    The CW. :shrug:
     
  9. Laxguy

    Laxguy Honi Soit Qui Mal Y Pense.

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    Winters,...
    Funny- just finished watching last ep. of Smash a few minutes ago. There's something both fascinating and irritating about this show.

    I've been rooting for NBC to pull out of its nosedive, so any good news is.....
    good news. :confused:
     
  10. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    Here's the final Tuesday of Nielsen February Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    And here's the 8:00 to 10:00 averages for February Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    IMHO the Nielsen 2012 February Sweeps Tuesday results offer a snapshot at what's happening in broadcast TV.

    Fox. Last night is why I call Fox "the sports and game show network." Instead of the regular scripted programming, the suits at Fox ran a two-hour "American Idol" last night leaving "Glee", "New Girl", and "Raising Hope" fans out in the cold, as Fox routinely does to fans of its scripted programming.

    The suits at Rupert Murdoch's Fox think like all News Corp suits - everyone in the world is stupid but them. What they tried to do is make Fox's Tuesday ratings during February Sweeps look good. In this case, they think advertisers are stupid and don't see the handwriting on the wall:

    [​IMG]

    By doing this, what Fox has emphasized is that
    1. "Glee" has been running #2 in the demo at 8:00 and "New Girl" has been running #1 in the demo at 9:00.
    2. Fox doesn't give a crap about those shows or their viewers and would not hesitate to ruin their ratings to make a one-time quick profit on some special sports or game show airing.
    3. In the two hour competition, in scripted programming competition CBS is pulling 3 times the 50+ viewers completely devalued by Fox and beating them in the demo.
    Ad buyers know that Fox scripted programming can't guarantee any audience.

    And the fun part of Fox cramming an "Idol" in last night is that an ad buyer can get a much clearer picture. In 2009 there was a two hour "American Idol" on the comparable Tuesday:

    [​IMG]

    This tells advertisers everything they need to know as they contemplate their Spring Upfront advertising buys. The price for time on "Idol" is worth a whole lot less in the coming 2012-13 year.

    But that's all ok, because News Corp has a grip on the viewer's wallet with Fox's $1 per subscriber monthly retransmission fee.

    ABC in this February Sweeps on Tuesdays is clearly at #4 in the 2-hour competition and last at 10:00:

    [​IMG]

    ABC has the same problem as Fox. One can only squeeze so much out of a show like "Dancing with the Stars."

    NBC has gained a position to #3 thanks to ABC buying "The River" and not sticking with a sitcom for 8:30.

    And "Parenthood" clearly beat ABC's "Body of Proof" in the demo.

    CBS on Tuesday offers an opportunity to see what a broadcast network with business acumen and foresight looks like in 2012.

    Over the past few years, CBS noted and adjusted for trends. Those trends are:
    • People in the 18-49 demo are watching less TV live.
    • At best, a broadcast network is only going to get a third of the demo with programs that span 22-26 weeks of each viewing year.
    • On the other hand, folks over 50 now make up two-thirds of the live viewing audience.
    • The 50+ live viewing audience will watch popular programming if it is reliably scheduled.
    • The only viewing audience a broadcast network can deliver reliably to advertisers is live viewers over 50 years of age.
    The most popular scripted TV show on television is "NCIS" and Mark Harmon, age 60, was voted most popular television personality in a recent Harris poll. "NCIS" does consistently win its time slot in the demo.

    But after adjusting out Fox's "Idol" last night, what is most important to note is that "NCIS" consistently delivered to advertisers 60% of the 50+ live viewers along with 34% of the 18-49 demo. And the 50+ live viewers made up 70% of the 8:00 audience.

    And just in case "NCIS" is not popular with teenage girls, CBS owns half of...

    The CW. Apparently The CW has a strategy, but I'm not sure it has much to do with broadcast TV other than to keep a placeholder in the less-internet-enhanced portion of the female 14-24 demographic. A recent New York Times article noted regarding Netflix:
     
  11. Church AV Guy

    Church AV Guy Godfather

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    According to TV by the Numbers, Ringer is likely to be cancelled along with at least one other show on the CW. This article is not too rosy about the future of the show(s). Too bad since I like the show. It keeps entertaining me, and surprising me!
     
  12. Mar 1, 2012 #112 of 146
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    Here's the fourth Wednesday, and last night, of the Nielsen February 2012 Sweeps:

    [​IMG]

    Here's the 8:00 - 10:00 competition averages...

    [​IMG]

    ...and the 10:00 competition averages:

    [​IMG]

    Fox dominated the 2-hour competition with "American Idol" popular in the demo and the 50+ crowd. The first Wednesday "Mobbed" didn't do so well at 9:00, but "Idol" at 8:00 gave the sports and game show network a large win.

    That's the good news for the suits at Fox. The bad news is that compared to a year ago when "Idol" ratings were 7.7/22 - 22.58 million, the demo dropped by 34% and the 50+ dropped by 19%.

    ABC's comedy lineup did ok, coming in second in the two hour demo, though it was the "Modern Family" half-hour with very high ratings that pushed those two-hour ratings up to beat CBS. Apparently those that don't continue with ABC to watch "Happy Endings" disappear from the live viewing audience.

    Once you remove the "20/20" ABC decided to run on the third week (why?), "Revenge" looks a little better in the 10:00 race, well ahead of "SVU" though still #2.

    CBS. Wednesday is tough against "Idol" but at 8:00, except for the first night when they ran that "Person to Person" (why?), "Survivor" is #2. "Criminal Minds" wins the 9:30 half hour, but the audience for ABC's "Modern Family" is large in the 9:00 half hour.

    "CSI" continues to win the 10:00 hour.

    NBC clearly made no effort to win anything on Wednesday as they start to rebuild on other nights.

    The CW, for whatever reason, premiered "America's Next Top Model" on this night. :shrug:
     
  13. Mar 2, 2012 #113 of 146
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    As CBS (and Turner) start creating a stir for March Madness "brackets", prime time moves into the March Doldrums when some teams try to "rebuild" while others squeeze additional profits from past performances. Here's the first Thursday of the March Doldrums presented along with the February Sweeps averages:

    [​IMG]

    ABC clearly is a network trying to squeeze additional profits from reruns. The cheap to produce "Wipeout" at 8:00 seemed to earn nearly as well as it did the first time around.

    "Grey's Anatomy", on the other hand, didn't. And the "Jimmy Kimmel" Oscar rerun ratings were a disaster.

    CBS had reruns for its entire lineup except "Rob." The reruns did ok from a revenue standpoint, helping to offset the cost of production. But without a new "Big Bang Theory" as a lead-in, "Rob" suffered some though not too badly.

    Fox ran another 2-hour "American Idol" potentially helping "The Finder" lose what audience it had. Last year on the equivalent Thursday, the two hours of "Idol" averaged 8.2/24 - 25.0 million compared to this year's 5.4/15 - 18.3 million, a 34% drop in the demo and a 23% drop in the 50+ viewers.

    If this literally meant a 34% drop in revenue from "Idol", Fox's failure to adequately support other shows would represent a dim future, except they now can look forward to that $1 a month retrans fee from all of us.

    Note that I am showing the Sweeps averages for only "The Finder" at 9:00.

    NBC. In the first two hours, against reruns on the other networks, the NBC comedy lineup did not gain any viewers leaving them at their dismal ratings.

    At 10:00 the "Awake" premier did win the demo, barely, against a rerun of "The Mentalist", but pulled 40% fewer 50+ viewers. To quote TVbytheNumbers:
    The CW. It appears that The CW is using a similar strategy to what they did last year. That worked so well for them.... :rolleyes:
     
  14. Mar 3, 2012 #114 of 146
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    Here's the first Friday of the March Doldrums presented along with the February Sweeps averages:

    [​IMG]

    And for what it's worth here's the two hour listing:

    [​IMG]

    ABC's ratings for each time slot were above the Sweeps Average, so I guess that's progress.

    CBS. "Undercover Boss" got the only demo above 1.9 last night. But the finale of "A Gifted Man" kept CBS from getting a clear win in the two hour competition.

    Fox's two reruns of "Kitchen Nightmares" didn't do too well.

    NBC's "Grimm" still indicates it could have had decent ratings if it had been scheduled correctly on another night.

    The CW.:shrug:
     
  15. Mar 5, 2012 #115 of 146
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    Here's the first Sunday of the March Doldrums:

    [​IMG]

    And here's the two hour competition:

    [​IMG]

    I'm not including any February Sweeps data since three of the four Sundays were made irrelevant by The Super Bowl, The Emmy's and The Academy Awards.

    In fact, the next few weeks will be the first real indication of the competition on Sunday.

    What is a real indication of the status of regular programming on broadcast TV is that on 10/23/2011 when NBC had Sunday Night Football and Fox had a World Series Game, the 8:00-10:00 average live viewing totals were 14.1 in the demo and 31.67 in the 50+ crowd. Last night the numbers were 9.3 and 29.17, or 34% fewer in the demo and 8% fewer in the 50+ crowd.

    Sooner or later, advertisers are going to realize that on a routine basis the only eyes on broadcast TV ads are in heads that are over 50 years of age. The 18-49 demo has moved on from live broadcast TV except when there is something they just can't miss. Whether whatever that demo is doing can be reached by advertising on a reliable basis is an interesting question.

    ABC is the Sunday night winner in the demo and they get enough of the older crowd that they can consider it a good night from 7:00 to 10:00. But the 10:00 slot is a problem because "GBC" premiered with a lower rating than the premier of "Pan Am" and was #2 in the demo.

    CBS finds itself having a problem night with no wins in the demo and with "The Good Wife" running #4 in the demo but #1 by a wide margin in its time slot in the 50+ crowd.

    Fox's animated lineup continues to deliver decent ratings even winning the demo at the 9:00 half hour.

    NBC's "Celebrity Apprentice" won the 10:00 hour in the demo though it only had 57% over the 50+ viewers that CBS pulled.
     
  16. Mar 6, 2012 #116 of 146
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    Here's the first Monday of the March Doldrums presented along with the February Sweeps averages:

    [​IMG]

    And here's the 8:00 - 10:00 competition:

    [​IMG]

    CBS offers interesting numbers with its entire lineup of reruns. Looking at the total viewers for time slots, it appears most of the reduction is due to folks not watching CBS reruns - they just aren't watching.

    ABC's "The Bachelor" did about average.

    NBC's "The Voice" won the 8:00 to 10:00 competition. And against two reruns "Smash" didn't gain though it won the 10:00 competition. Again, the regular viewers of "Castle" and "Hawaii Five-0" aren't interested in "Smash."

    Fox. If "Terra Nova" was canceled with demo's consistently over 2.0 what are they going to do with "Alcatraz"?

    On April 2 they will begin to kill "Bones" by airing it on Monday nights at 8:00 and return "House" to 9:00 where it languished earlier this year.

    IMHO Fox intends on canceling their entire 2011-12 scripted lineup unless "Touch" does well against "Grey's Anatomy" and "Person of Interest" on Thursday. The big question is how many viewers will be willing to gamble on "Touch" actually having a future.

    The CW. :shrug:
     
  17. Mar 6, 2012 #117 of 146
    Laxguy

    Laxguy Honi Soit Qui Mal Y Pense.

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    Wow. For the first time since Mr. Pasteur boiled his milk, I watched a show on NBC that was rated first, and wasn't a sporting event. I guess cows can jump over moons.
     
  18. Mar 6, 2012 #118 of 146
    Church AV Guy

    Church AV Guy Godfather

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    Terra Nova was MUCH more expensive than Alcatraz. There is more to the renewal decision than just ratings.

    As far as the whole schedule is concerned, you could almost say that of FOX, NBC, and the CW.:(
     
  19. Mar 6, 2012 #119 of 146
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    True but as I noted in other threads, there are five production companies spreading the cost and widespread international distribution.
    Fox has the Sunday animated lineup that does modestly well. On weekdays, they have 16 hours to sell. Here's what they offered this year:
    • Glee - marginal ratings compared to prior years
    • New Girl - great ratings
    • Raising Hope - near death ratings
    • I Hate My Teenage Daughter - near death ratings
    • Terra Nova - cancelled
    • House - cancelled
    • Bones - As of April, returns on Monday at 8:00
    • The Finder - death ratings
    • Fringe - death ratings
    • Alcatraz - near death ratings
    • Touch - premiers this month on Thursday at 9:00
    • American Idol - popular, but dropping year-to-year
    • The X-Factor - ok cost/ratings ratio
    • Kitchen Nightmares - ok cost/ratings ratio
    Scripted drama has not been their thing lately.
     
  20. Mar 7, 2012 #120 of 146
    Church AV Guy

    Church AV Guy Godfather

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    That's a bit of an understatement. Clearly, I agree with you.
     

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