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2013-14 Season Broadcast Ratings - Fall

Discussion in 'TV Show Talk' started by phrelin, Sep 17, 2013.

  1. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Last night the 2013 fall broadcast network premiers began for ABC and Fox. Here is the overnight ratings results:

    [​IMG]

    Last year against NBC's "The Voice" which had already premiered but was the only non-repeat regular programming, "Bones" pulled a 2.3/6 demo, 7.82 total and "The Mob Doctor" 1.5/4 - 5.09. This year "Bones" pulled about the same but "Sleepy Hollow" begins with double the ratings. Whether this means anything is unclear since next week NBC will premier "The Voice" and CBS will premier its comedy lineup.

    And, of course, Fox will soon begin its "Where's Waldo" cycle of preempting its regular programming for sports and after the preemption period intends to kill "Bones" by having it on the schedule on Fridays beginning November 8.

    "Dancing with the Stars" two hour rating was 3.2/9 - 16.19 compared to last year's premier at 2.7 / 7 - 14.58. But last year when "DWTS" premiered "The Voice" was in its third week on NBC and the CBS lineup premiered the same night as "DWTS".

    The total number of viewers is surprising given the number of reruns of regularly scheduled shows and other shows.
     
  2. yosoyellobo

    yosoyellobo Icon

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    I have Hostage and The Blacklist set to record the opening plot next week.
     
  3. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    The 10 pm ratings chase should be interesting. Last spring, the new episode average ratings looked like this

    [​IMG]

    "Castle" seemed to be the beneficiary of a solid but weakening lead-in from "DWTS". "Revolution" had "The Voice" as a lead-in. Whether "Hawaii Five-0" declined on its own merits last year or was the victim of the lead-in competition is unknown.

    This year NBC's "The Blacklist" will benefit from "The Voice" but much like "Revolution" it is a gamble on a relatively unknown writer and, other than James Spader, a gamble on a relatively unknown cast. Whether it can grab and hold an audience is a question in my mind.

    "Hostages" is the product of Jerry Bruckheimer's company and has Emmy, Golden Globe, and other award winning stars. But that and a dollar will buy you a cup of coffee. CBS has stuck by it's comedy lead-in approach but with a couple of newbies. Unfortunately, those comedies don't do so well buried in the midst of "The Voice" and "DWTS."
     
    1 person likes this.
  4. Church AV Guy

    Church AV Guy Godfather

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    phrelin! It's good to see these posts back. Thanks a lot, in advance. I have always enjoyed them.

    A rerun of Castle did better than I would have expected, though it was last season's finale. Also, Sleepy Hollow did very good. The "village" had a sign with the population listed as 144,000. Biblically, that's a very significant number. I wonder if there will be many Easter Eggs in the show, like Lost?
     
  5. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Happy to be doing these even as broadcast viewers become less and less important to advertisers due to streaming. I have a feeling you're going to be right about the Easter Eggs in "Sleepy Hollow." The thing about 144,000 is that it's not only biblically significant, it's also a significant number for the Mayan Calendar, though I would guess the Mayans aren't watching much Fox TV.

    Here's Tuesday:

    [​IMG]
    Last year, "New Girl" premiered slightly lower but it was a week later, they did two episodes and had other new season competition. On that same night a year ago, "Mindy Project" premiered at 2.4/6 - 4.73, so this year's premier ratings do not bode well for the show. "Dads" and "Brooklyn 99" premiered better than "Ben and Kate" and much better than the "Raising Hope" 2012 season premier (on October 2) which pulled 1.7/5 - 3.89. I have no idea what any of this means since "NCIS" was still a rerun and NBC's "America's Got Talent" in the 9-11 pm slot was headed towards tonight's season finale. And, of course, as I noted yesterday Fox does like to play "Where's Waldo" with their schedule.
     
  6. tsmacro

    tsmacro Hall Of Fame

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    Hmmmm......looks like NBC's Million Second Quiz isn't exactly burning up the ratings either. Of course it took me a second to figure out where it even was since it's not even listed. Awful lot of hoopla for something that doesn't seem to be doing much, oh well being a game show even if it's relatively expensive game show, they'll probably still come out ahead as those are usually less expensive to produce than scripted television anyway. I will say this I've watched it since the second night and I can understand why the ratings aren't great, it took me something like two nights to really figure out the format and how it all worked, it was definitely a little confusing. There's been some good competition though and that's kept me watching.
     
  7. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    I know this week's ratings are going to be a little odd, but the focus is to be on the 2013 Fall shows. It's just easier for me not to list all the Summer show finales. I don't do anything with the Summer broadcast ratings as they're in heavy competition with cable channel Summer lineups.

    Anyway, here's Wednesday:

    [​IMG]

    Last year "Survivor" premiered with 3.1/10 - 11.22 compared to this year's 2.6/8 - 9.52. It might look worrisome for CBS, but last year "The X Factor" pulled 3.5/10 - 9.38 compare to this year's 2.2/7 - 6.56. I guess it should be comforting to CBS that they didn't take as hard a hit as Fox. But the fact that total broadcast TV viewership is down 17% and demo viewership is down 26% from year-to-year probably isn't all that comforting.

    That brings up the overall strategy issue. It appears that CBS has kept it "eye" (pun intended) on the 50+ crowd. That seems like a smart move since CBS is in the broadcast network business. Fox still focuses on the demo and as last night's numbers show, they're a fickle bunch who are moving away from watching traditional TV. As each year goes by a new bunch of new-media-oriented 18-year-olds come in while 49-year-olds age out. It is only going to get worse for Fox as a broadcast network.

    The thing is that CBS has two long-running reality shows - "Survivor" and "Amazing Race" - which seem to hold a core audience. In the case of "Survivor" its average ratings last Spring against "American Idol" was 2.5/8 - 9.45. Those folks came back for the premier.

    The long-term issue for advertisers is going to be "what is the comparative dollar-for-dollar value of streaming/on-demand ads?" The long-term issue for CBS is if and when the Netflix economic model will become a better option. When your corporation is basically Showtime and CBS, the latter with a sports component, you have to start wondering about the value of the broadcast network affiliate model. Fortunately, CBS won't have to confront that immediately because they have found a way to "monetize" 50+ folks. And they have started meaningful streaming tests as we see in stories like CBS Sports will stream Alabama vs. Aggies on its website, mobile apps:
    CBS is the corporation to monitor if you want to see what will become the logical way for a corporation heavily invested in broadcast TV to deal with the changing media environment.

    In the meantime, I'll report the ratings.
     
  8. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    There were no Fall season premiers Thursday but here are the ratings:

    [​IMG]

    The only matter of note here is that "The X-Factor" last year pulled 3.4/11 - 9.85 compared to this year's 1.9/6 - 6.07 which is consistent with the Wednesday ratings drop for the show. I'm not quite sure what Fox will do with this show since they won't move it to Friday like everything else that doesn't get ratings. But IMHO they would be much, much better off to move "Bones" to 8 pm Thursday right now and move "The X-Factor" weekly part 2 to Friday.
     
  9. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Here's Friday where many shows go to die:

    [​IMG]


    The only premiers were on ABC. What we see is that "The Neighbors" fell from its season finale last March 1.5/5 - 5.51 and from "Malibu Country" series finale last March 1.4/5 - 7.00. But "Last Man Standing" also fell from its March finale 1.6/6 - 7.85 and "Shark Tank" fell from its last season May finale of 1.9/7 - 6.57. It wasn't a particularly auspicious premier Friday for ABC.
     
  10. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Last night's ratings we're worthless for determining the future of any show and instead are primarily for bragging rights (and revenue) as NBC won the demo with the NFL game and CBS won the 50+ crowd (and total viewers) with the Emmy Awards:

    [​IMG]
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    That CBS is relying on us 50+ folks to maintain its lead has been established. Last night ABC and Fox received the "participant" ribbon. There will be some adjustments because of all the time variations, but it isn't all that important unless you are Barney Stinson/Doogie Howser aka Neil Patrick Harris who may turn out to be the new great host of award shows.
     
  11. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Here's Monday at almost-full competition (The CW premiers are set for October 7):

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    NBC. The big grins are in the executive suites at NBC this morning. The Peacock's tail is on full display as "The Voice" dominates the 8-10 pm race and led the way into "The Blacklist" premier grabbing 48% of demo viewers and 36% of 50+ viewers giving it 39.9% of total viewers. I haven't seen any of the 10 pm shows yet, but if the 50+ like "The Blacklist" that's gravy for NBC.

    ABC won the 50+ viewers which apparently the network doesn't find satisfying if this year's one-episode-per-week scheduling of "DWTS" means anything.

    Fox should be happy with "Sleepy Hollow" as it was #2 in the demo and beat CBS in total viewers in the 9 pm hour.

    CBS suits should be in a panic. "Hostages" is already in the "move it to Friday or Sunday" class. There is no "Hawaii Five-0" is long-in-the-tooth excuse which was used last year. The comedies did about as well as I expected. The newbee "Mom" is well done, but is in the wrong time slot.

    The CW shows which premier in two weeks will have no chance against the other network Monday lineups, even worse than usual. That's unfortunate for CBS which owns 50%.
     
  12. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Here we go, Tuesday at almost-full competition (The CW premiers are set for October 8):

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    CBS. Tuesday has been the Eye Network's night. And in terms of total viewers, last night was no exception in every hour. However, a bit of brow-furrowing is going on in the executive suite this morning. It's not that CBS has an immediate problem. It's just that in terms of the year 2020 the future is obvious.

    Two years ago "NCIS" pulled 4.2/12 - 19.5. Last year it was 4.1/12 - 20.16. Neither was against "The Voice" blind auditions. This year's 3.4/10 -19.47 demonstrates that those in the 18-49 demo who will watch "NCIS" live+same day are not committed to a show. My guess is that many in the demo age group who normally watch "NCIS" instead watched "The Voice" and recorded "NCIS" for later or will stream it. It isn't like the advertised story line for the season opener wouldn't be a grabber for loyal "NCIS" fans. It's just that it works to watch it on your smart phone on the lunch hour today.

    "NCIS: LA" two years ago pulled 3.6/9 - 16.69 and one year ago 3.4/9 - 16.72 compared to this year's 3.0/8 - 16.17.

    Shifted by CBS from Thursday at 9 pm, "Person of Interest" pulled a 2.3/4 - 12.29. Two years ago "Unforgettable" pulled 2.9/8 - 13.98 and a year ago "Vegas" pulled 2.5/7 - 14.70 in this time slot. Two years ago "Person of Interest" premiered on Thursday at 9 pm with a 3.1/8 -13.22 and a year ago it pulled 2.9/8 -14.27.

    NBC. The NBC executive suite is full of grinning suits. Their lineup handily won the demo races, 8-to-10 pm and 8-to-11 pm. As we all know, two years ago the Peacock Network was a solid #4. And last spring, "Chicago Fire" was barely hanging on to #2 on Wednesday at 10 pm.

    Fox. Seeing an opening for a solid #4 position on Tuesday, the suits at Fox jumped in with both feet. They now hold the lead for this season's "we're-out-of-touch-with-the-viewers" award.

    ABC. The suits at the Alphabet Network need to worry. "Lucky 7" is DOA. While the "Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D." premier did well in the demo providing a lead-in to the comedy shows at 9 pm., those comedy shows will have to appeal to viewers on their own to maintain decent ratings by mid-season.

    The CW shows will premier in two weeks.

    It's interesting to note that a premier week Tuesday finds 18 million viewers who weren't there for the broadcast networks last week.
     
  13. Supramom2000

    Supramom2000 In Loving Memory of Onyx-2/23/09

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    I had no desire to even add Lucky 7 to a one-night recording. Nothing about it appealed to me in any way. For all I know, it could have been a gripping show, but the advertising that was done, and the concept as I saw it, left me uncaring.
     
  14. renbutler

    renbutler Godfather

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    The ads for both of those ABC comedies looked horrible. I can't believe one of them pulled a 3+.

     
  15. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Much to my surprise, both my wife and I liked "Trophy Wife." On the other hand, we're not so sure about "The Goldbergs" which seems like a SNL parody of "The Wonder Years."

    Here's Wednesday:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    ABC won the demo based solely on the "Modern Family" one-hour premier. But there was no network winner last night. Compared to this year's 4.1/11 - 11.45, two years ago a one hour "Modern Family" premier pulled 6.0/15 - 14.29 and last year's half hour pulled 5.5/15 - 14.21. And "The Middle" saw declines. "Nashville" came in #3 in the 10 pm slot.

    CBS retained bragging rights to the total viewer scores because of the strength of its programming with the 50+ crowd.

    NBC. The Comcast suits, after a strong Monday and Tuesday, must be questioning their scheduling decision for Wednesdays. Last year "Revolution" premiered in its 10 pm Monday time slot with a 4.1/11 - 11.65. Of course, NBC premiered their stuff a week ahead of the other nets, so the show premiered against no competition. But it was strong in the demo last spring. I don't get the 8 pm Wednesday time slot for this show. But the two hour "L&O:SVU" did well, looking really good in the 10 pm hour. I'm not sure that will be any indication of how well the "Ironside" remake will do.

    Fox. "The X-Factor" won the demo in the 8 pm slot but with numbers that led it to the #3 position at 9 pm. The problem for Fox is going to be the gradual disappearance of the demo from traditional TV. At the point they may have to appeal to the 50+ viewers but they will have to replace everyone in the executive suite. Or maybe Fox got it right by taking the lead on the huge hike in retransmission fees thereby taxing the 50+ crowd to support their programming aimed at the younger crowd still stuck watching live TV. But those aren't members of the younger crowd with a lot of disposable income.

    The CW shows will premier in two weeks.
     
  16. tsmacro

    tsmacro Hall Of Fame

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    Yeah I seem to remember that Revolution was pretty competitive in it's Monday 10 pm timeslot last year. Looks like the night and time change didn't do that show any favors.
     
  17. yosoyellobo

    yosoyellobo Icon

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    When I found out I was not one of the seven I lost interest.:)
     
  18. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Here's Thursday:

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    [​IMG]

    CBS won every half hour in total viewers and won the demo from 8:00 to 9:30. At 9:30 about 10% of the demo viewers found something else to do other than watch broadcast network TV. Two years ago CBS premiered "Big Bang Theory" with two episodes. Compared to this year's hour average of 5.6/17 - 18.90, two years ago for the whole hour the show scored 4.9/15 - 14.26. Looking at the 8:00 slot, this year's score was 5.3/18 - 18.30, last year was 4.8/15 - 15.31, and two years ago 4.8/15 - 14.06. "The Crazy Ones" scored a win for CBS against "Grey's Anatomy".

    ABC. The "Grey's Anatomy" premier gave ABC the 10 pm win and bragging rights to #2 despite the rerun at 8 pm.

    Fox. In the 8 pm hour "The X-Factor" was #2 in the demo and the 50+ crowd with its 4.8/15 - 14.06 which compared favorably to last year's 3.2/10 - 9.19 and 3.9/11 - 11.43 two years ago. On the other hand, "Glee" with 2.0/5 - 5.17 is down from its early premier last year's 3.3/9 - 8.09.

    NBC. On what used to be - a long, long time ago - "Must See TV" night, NBC's shows gave the network a solid last place (ignoring The CW).

    The CW will offer premiers next week.

    It's worth noting that 13+ million more viewers watched last night compared to last week including 5+ million demo viewers.
     
  19. inkahauts

    inkahauts DIRECTV A-Team

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    Trophy wife seems to be the funniest new show I have so far.
     
  20. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Here's Friday:

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    CBS won the Friday night contest, for what it's worth. They won the 50+ category in all six half hours and the demo in the 10 pm hour and tied in the 8:30 half hour. Compared to this year's 1.7/6 - 11.39, last year "Blue Bloods" premiered with 1.5/5 - 11.11 and two years ago 2.0/6 - 11.85. It's tough to compare the "Hawaii Five-0" premier ratings of 1.5/5 - 9.38 in this time slot, but it certainly did better than the "Made In Jersey" premier last year which pulled only 1.1/4 - 7.74. Two years ago "CSI: NY" scored 1.8/6 - 10.67 which means "Hawaii Five-0" is not only pulling 20% fewer demo viewers, it is down 50+ viewers by 11%.

    ABC's comedies and "20/20" fell from last week's premiers. However, "Shark Tank" was up slightly. This gave them the #2 position with "Shark Tank" winning the demo in the 9 pm hour.

    NBC was #3 in the 8-11 race but did beat...

    ...Fox in the 50+ crowd in the 8-10 race.

    The CW. I'm not sure this matters, but in the 8 pm slot a year ago "America's Next Top Model" scored 0.5/2 - 0.92 compared to this year's 0.4/1 - 0.99 in the 9 pm slot.

    It's import to note that between 8-10 there were 12± million fewer viewers than Thursday which pretty much tells us how devalued Friday is.
     

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