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Cable v. D*

Discussion in 'DIRECTV General Discussion' started by Spazzman, Jun 6, 2007.

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  1. Jun 6, 2007 #1 of 52
    Spazzman

    Spazzman AllStar

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    Here is a very detailed and interesting article regarding the Cable vs. Directv War. It details Directv's efforts to hold exclusive rights to sporting packages like extra innings and NFL ST.

    http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6448417.html
     
  2. Jun 7, 2007 #2 of 52
    Proc

    Proc Godfather

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    Good article.

    Bottom line?

    D* still has exclusive rights to the Sunday Ticket, which is its crown jewel and the reason millions are with D* in the first place.
     
  3. Jun 7, 2007 #3 of 52
    mluntz

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    It's the only reason I'm still here!
     
  4. Jun 7, 2007 #4 of 52
    Radio Enginerd

    Radio Enginerd New Member

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    And as I mentioned in another thread, not all cable companies are made equal.

    Minus locals, what you get on DirecTV in New York is the same as if you had DirecTV in San Francisco.
     
  5. Jun 7, 2007 #5 of 52
    ansky

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    Agreed. The Time Warner system in Westchester Co., NY is probably the best cable lineup I have ever seen. Every channel imagineable is on there. The thing I don't like about D* is their lack of local programming like NY1 and News 12 here in the NYC area...
     
  6. Jun 7, 2007 #6 of 52
    tonyd79

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    First plus for cable is wrong for a very big company...Comcast.

    They are moving NFL and its free on demand to a higher pay tier.
     
  7. Jun 7, 2007 #7 of 52
    Steve Mehs

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    I couldn't see it before, but when Sunday Ticket is up for renewal, I can see InDemand putting up a big fight for it. They never backed down when it came to MLB Extra Innings, and I am a very happy MLB EI subscriber and I really am grateful. Come on InDemand, get us NFL ST!
     
  8. Jun 7, 2007 #8 of 52
    Radio Enginerd

    Radio Enginerd New Member

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    You may be right but I imagine DirecTV to fight hand over fist for it too. We all know Charlie is too cheap at E* so I imagine they won't be in it until the bitter end.
     
  9. Jun 8, 2007 #9 of 52
    Diana C

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    Two completely different situations. MLB never sold EI as an exclusive before, so they were breaking with tradition. NFLST has never been anything BUT an exclusive.

    The real outcome of that is that NFLST is SIGNIFICANTLY more expensive than MLBEI. Even at the exhorbitant rates DirecTV gets for NFLST these days, it is no better than a breakeven proposition for them. They don't make money from NFLST, they make their money from the base package nearly all NFLST subscribers have as well.

    Also, remember how the NFL broadcast "negotiations" go...first, all the existing contractees are offered renewal contracts. Only if they choose to not accept the renewal rate does the contract go to bidding by other broadcasters. In the case of NFLST, the contract has never even been offered to anyone beside DirecTV since they originally picked it up over 10 years ago.

    In that climate it is hard or anyone to get into the mix. DirecTV is currently paying $3.5 billion for 5 years of NFLST, ending in 2010. The renewal will likely be worth at least $5 billion for 5 years. If InDemand wants to break the exclusivity, then they have to convince the NFL that they and DirecTV will end up paying more than $1 billion/year for a non-exclusive. Will DirecTV pay for a non-exclusive NFLST? I doubt it, and they've been telling the NFL that they wouldn't.

    So, the question becomes, can InDemand afford to pay more than DirecTV for exclusivity?

    DirecTV would probably be willing to go to at least $1.5 billion/year.

    Can InDemand go beyond that? I doubt it. The problem is that DirecTV can afford to lose money on NFLST since they can make it up in the base subscription fees of new subscribers that are attracted by NFLST. InDemand can't afford that. At 1.7 billion per year, even if the annual rate for NFLST was $500, InDemand would need 3.4 million subscribers to break even. That's about 6% of all cable subscribers in the country. Ain't gonna happen.
     
  10. Jeremy W

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    Whenever NFLST comes up for renewal, there is always a lot of talk about how "it's cable's time!" DirecTV isn't going to lose NFLST exclusivity, period. The company will go out of business before they let that happen. It's the one thing they can trumpet that nobody else can touch.
     
  11. Steve Mehs

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    Sure it was, from the very beginning to about 2002, all sports packages were exclusive to DirecTV. Primestar had NHL CI I believe but it doesn't matter since DirecTV bought them out.
     
  12. convem24

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    Steve Mehs - I very much doubt that InDemand will bid enough to get NFLST. Typically D* get first crack at the bidding and if they do it right (they will probably spend 1 billion a year with the new set of bids) the cable group and E* will not have NFLST for another 5 years. I doubt NFLST will get as much of an uproar as the MLBEI package got since MLBEI has never been exclusive. Look at Titan25's analsys. He is correct. Typically D* has more sports package subs than the cable group and E*. I would not be suprised if D* has more sport package subscribers than the cable group and E* has combined (I have no proof but D* I believe was very close to having more MLBEI subs than the cable group).

    And again I go back to Titan25's analsys of the situation. Lets say that InDemand does bid 1.5 bln and they are doing a break even analsys, they would need 3.6 mln subscribers to NFLST at a minimum and D* has over 2 mln currently, so I am very doubtful that the cable companies that are part of InDemand would want to lose a fair amount of money on NFLST. Typically the cable group wants to make money.
     
  13. rjdude

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    Would cable be able to carry all of the HD games??? DirecTV has that advantage with the new Sats so they would have to convince the NFL that they could carry all of the games in HD.
     
  14. Jeremy W

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    Without pre-empting other channels, I highly doubt most cable systems could handle it.
     
  15. Steve Mehs

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    For the 1 millionth time, SDV and analog channel removal. Any decent cable company can easily compete with DirecTVs potential bandwidth. My cable company has never preempted a channel, DirecTV on the other hand....


    I said put up a big fight, no where did I say InDemand will get NFL ST, but I expect them to put up a bigger fight then they have in the past, if they prevail, who knows, when the renewal is up DirecTV will most likely be under the management of Liberty, who knows what the new ownership will be like and what their focus will be.

    Also, for the 1 millionth time, yes MLB Extra Innings was a DirecTV exclusive at one point. Then it was opened up to InDemand then Dish got it 2 seasons later I believe.
     
  16. Jeremy W

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    For the 1 millionth time, how many cable systems out there have SDV or are 100% digital? It's going to be a while before either one of those things are found on any significant number of systems.
     
  17. Steve Mehs

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    Comcast and Time Warner, the nations two largest cable companies have already laid out plans and are testing. No different then what DirecTV is doing. But it doesn't really matter, it comes down to my vaporware is better then yours (even though cables vaporware is already on my cable system).
     
  18. garn9173

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    The local cable company here, Mediacom, has invested hundreds of millions of dollars to upgrade it's system state wide, however, that was several years ago and today, as of late, I see Mediacom falling behin the 8 ball because:

    1 - Their VOD is a joke (unless you have premium movie channel, it's basically useless

    2 - Very weak HD lineup and no plans to improve it (at the present time, I haven't jumped into the HD world, but seriously thinking about it before D10 comes online)

    3 - No EI, Leauge Pass, or Center Ice

    4 - It's price for basic/expanded cable costs just as much as D*'s TC+

    5 - No NFL Network, heck, Mediacom doesn't even have a deal yet with the Big 10 Network (could care less about that one)
     
  19. bidger

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    I question whether Liberty Media/Malone will still own D* the next time NFLST comes up for bid.

    But, Jeremy, you must have missed it. TWC announced that they expect to deploy SDV for 50% of their coverage areas by the end of the year. It didn't set well with the TiVo S3 owners, but I can see why TWC would do it to compete.

    I'd like to see how they handle it with customers who don't want to go digital.
     
  20. RobertE

    RobertE New Member

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    Not my parents system thats for sure. I have more channels removed from my list then they have available. They have no digital, no PPV, no VOD, no cable internet. They only have the main HBO, Sho & Cinemax. Thats it. You look up sucky cable in the dictonary, and their is a picture of their system. Its TWC. :barf:

    The next time I'm there, I'm switching them to D*. :)
     
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