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Discussion in 'DIRECTV General Discussion' started by Stuart Sweet, Jun 24, 2010.
Wow...I must be in a time machine back here in 3Q 2010.
This is TiVo's FY2011.
Strange, but true.
Not strange, I understand the 2011 fiscal year begins 7/1/10 for many companies. I'd like to say again that my original prediction was for the first quarter of calendar year 2011 and I am now saying that I expect it to be longer than that, if ever.
Since we still haven't seen even a hint of a prototype let alone anything in beta I totally agree that 1Q11 is looking pretty suspect.
CES in January will be very telling. If there isn't a demo unit there (that is actually working no less) then 1Q12 is in question and frankly I go for the "if ever" part of Stuart's prediction.
I'll be frank in thinking Tivo would save more face by just canceling it vs. it being a total flop it most certainly would be by 2012. By then you'll have probably over 75% of DirecTV's then near 20 million subs all with a DirecTV DVR plus the whole home server unit will be rolled out by then as well. Who but a very small number of die hards will be clambering for a Tivo? Nobody.
Fiscal Year means little in terms of a delivery date.
Maybe they are counting on the Mayans being right.
Here is some perspective from Cable world...
I switched a few months ago to Tivo's new HD box with cable. I still prefer this setup in terms of Amount of HD I get, cost, and some added Tivo features. (I integrated it with my computer network, and watch Tivo shows on my Xbox, on my Pre, and on my Zune - with little effort.)
However, the software on this box is incomplete. And the updates that get sent about once every month or two, make little noticeable difference. If this box is an example of the current capacity to innovate and produce new software, I have to say I think you folks are going to be waiting A VERY LONG time for a DirecTivo. And if and when you do get one, expect the same quality from it that you did from your first HR20 back in 2007.
If you are a big Tivo fan - I highly recommend you take another look at Cable, if you can, in your area.
I do MRV to an xbox over wirelessN and its beautiful.
You are seeing what I saw with TiVo when I had my HD TiVo. Stagnation. The most innovative company around went into stall mode.
BTW, I could watch NOTHING on my PCs as comcast set the copy protect flag here. Only OTA came through. Glad it is working for you, though.
Actually, it was 2006 for me anyway. By 2007 I'd found it stabilized.
That kinda contradicts your first statement, but maybe you're referring to having the "complete" TiVo experience.
I can see how it seems that way, but yes, I am talking of the whole experience. With the new Tivo, the Series 4, you can turn off the HD menus, and the thing is Extremely FAST with the traditional Tivo menus. Plus you have the internet OnDemand stuff built into it. The concept on the unit is great, they just have been slow to get the HD Menus for all screens completed.
When you combine the traditional Tivo experience with the freedom of CableCard, and the ability to watch *most* shows anywhere (on my system, movies are almost always copy protected, the rest of the shows aren't) all for much less than paying D*, it's great.
My ultimate point to people is this: If you are THAT big of a Tivo fan that you are still on the edge of your seat waiting for Tivo to put out a D* box, it's probably VERY WORTH your time to check out the new Series 4 on cable first. (assuming you have a decent cable system where you live.)
In a small sign of life, Tivo just released the previously-promised remote with slide-out keyboard. Favorable reviews at crunchgear and engadget. (edit: Cnet reviews (search at reviews dot cnet dot com) says it is "a must-have remote for owners of compatible TiVo DVRs.")
From Tivo's latest call - http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ti...-july-31-2010-2010-08-25?reflink=MW_news_stmp
"It is also worth pointing out that our software is being ported onto set-top boxes from multiple device manufacturers including Cisco set-top boxes for both ONO and Virgin and Technicolor set-top boxes for DirecTV and others, and there are additional set-top box providers showing significant interest in similar relationships. The integration of TiVo software onto a set-top box is truly a differentiator for set-top box manufactures looking to gain advanced television solutions deployments with multichannel operators.
So it is going onto the -100, we just don't know what to put in front of that dash yet.
LOL on that quote. It's pretty much the same thing Tivo has been saying for years now...but nothing changes. Good stuff.
By the way I notice a couple interesting sub numbers at the end of the article.
First, they lost another 125K subs in the quarter.
They are down to 1.3 million stand alone subs and just 1.08 million MSO subs which includes DirecTV, Comcast, RCN, etc.
I'd say there must be under 750K DirecTivo's left in service now, if that. Ouch.
By the time they finally get the new DirecTivo for sale there will probably be well under 500K DirecTivo's left. That's pretty low.
MRV clients. Mentioned here.
I know. Still odd. Especially since TiVo doesn't do MRV with streaming. They do copy to local DVR.
Apparently no longer, at least on paper.