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Hard disk drive shortage looming

Discussion in 'General DISH™ Discussion' started by TBoneit, Oct 20, 2011.

  1. TBoneit

    TBoneit Hall Of Fame

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    I wonder how this will affect DVR supply and releases of new models.

    From Here http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Thail...8.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

    "The personal computer industry, already reeling from depressed demand, has been dealt another setback: Massive flooding in Thailand has curtailed production of a critical component -- computer storage drives.

    Factories producing a third of the country's hard drives have temporarily closed as flooding has gradually spread since August. Prices have spiked, and Apple warned that its Mac products will likely be affected.

    And this "Gartner Inc. analyst John Monroe called the disruptions "very serious and ongoing" and said they affect production of roughly half of the "spindle" motors that turn the hard disks, along with other technologies. Monroe expects slowdowns through March."
    Computer manufacturers, the companies that supply hard drives and the makers of components for those drives are all bracing for troubles. What's not yet clear is what extent PC production lines will be affected and whether PC makers will absorb costs or pass them along to consumers.

    Thailand makes about a quarter of the world's hard drives and is the second-largest producer behind China"

    Reading the whole article Seagate and Western Digital warn of delays.
     
  2. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Time to start using SSD's as the principal drive in new computers anyway. That would free up some inventory.
     
  3. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    Isn't there some question of the SSD useable life or is that like the outdated Plasma argument?

    I can't imagine using a technology that is projected to last less than a year. Once blocks start getting mapped out, the situation will get exponentially worse. With DVRs, there's almost always more writing than reading.

    SSDs would surely be a hard lesson for those who refuse to turn off their DVRs what with buffering content 24/7 (100GB of buffering per day for an HD channel).
     
  4. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Northern...
    While you wouldn't use one for a DVR, generally today most SSD's in computers will become outdated before they die just like most mechanical magnetic hard drives. But just like mechanical drives, SSD's can fail.

    All I was suggesting is using them as the primary drive for new computers, although I recognize that depending upon use there are some potential problems with that.

    It seems to me that in a world where tablets are the trend and there may be a shortage of mechanical hard drives, we would see a shift away from the mechanical drive as the primary on computers.
     
  5. TBoneit

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    harsh, going beyond the cost. Intel warrants their current SSD line at 3 years except for their 320 series that has a 5 year warranty.

    How much of a SSD is used can affect lifespan too.
    If we take two drives and write the same amount of data to them but one is at 40% used and the other is at 90% used the 90% used will last a shorter time. The higher unused space allows wear leveling to have more room to spread the wear caused by writes.

    Likewise if we take 120Gb SSD and partition it to 100Gb it will last longer as the unused space is used by the wear leveling.

    phrelin: All my computers use SSD boot drives as of this year. In the case of the desktop I also use 7200RPM data drives. Laptops just the SSD.

    I went to them for speed of booting and opening programs and saving time at shut down too.
     
  6. Orion9

    Orion9 Legend

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    I've been in the computer industry since 1975 and I don't think I remember a time when there wasn't a warning about a shortage of something. I can't remember it ever being really noticeable at the user level though. Typically prices rise a bit (or don't fall as fast as they otherwise might have) and that balances the supply and demand.

    BTW the SSD drive in this PC is 3 years old. No issues yet.
     
  7. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    Usually it is been RAM. In most all cases, whatever we're "short of" comes from Taiwan.
     
  8. TBoneit

    TBoneit Hall Of Fame

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    You don't remember some of the price spikes in memory that drove the price way up?
     
  9. Jim5506

    Jim5506 Hall Of Fame

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    If you just bide your time the market will level out, don't buy when prices spike.
     
  10. FastNOC

    FastNOC Godfather

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    yeah I can't even imagine trying to replace my platter drives with SSD lol. they are still tiny, and EXTREMELY expensive per GB in comparison.

    I just installed an OCZ vertiex 3 in my workstation, and it has TRIM issues with windows still.

    The technology is way too new (and the write limitations will be veritually gone very soon, as theyr'e already talking about the next versions being 100X more write capability. but you'd rarely keep a drive that long). and the prices are absolutely insane.

    You'd be buring way more money trying to replace your platters with SSDs than waiting for any shortage to subside. By a mile.
     
  11. Dave

    Dave Icon

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    Just wondering why this is not in the Tech Forum?
     
  12. P Smith

    P Smith Mr. FixAnything

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    Because of line: drive-platters-dishes-dish :)
     
  13. TBoneit

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    I do not believe the technology is too new. More like some of the makers haven't shaken out yet.

    I do not believe the write limitations will go away soon since the trend is towards memory being used in the SSDs that is less durable rather than more durable. When they shrink the die size they seem to shrink the durability.

    I hate to say it to you but you bought something that based on user reviews isn't a good drive. I have heard that the latest firmware does help.

    What I bought for my Desktop and Laptops is mostly Intel 5 year warranty SSDs, Samsung & Kingston too. I bought the small Kingston & Samsung SSDs and I used them to back up the boot drives because a "Friend" asked me to order them, then after I ordered he then changed his mind, so I found a use for them.

    The only Non SSD boot drive in the house is a older computer that only has IDE connectors.

    I suspect that SSD bargains will slow down due to the flooding.
    When I look at the recent NewEgg e-mail specials I am not seeing hard Drives lately. I used to see 1Tb, 2Tb & 3Tb on sale all the time.

    This From Western Digital

    "In mid-October we temporarily suspended production at our two factories in Thailand, which have been inundated by floodwater, to protect our employees and our equipment and facilities. We manufacture approximately 60 percent of our hard drives in Thailand. With the greatest direct manufacturing exposure to the flooded areas, the impact on our business in the short term will be greater than to other HDD manufacturers.

    In addition, many of our component suppliers have been impacted, leaving material for hard drive production considerably constrained"
     
  14. Davenlr

    Davenlr Geek til I die

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    Teach em to outsource everything overseas...Come on back to America guys!
     
  15. TBoneit

    TBoneit Hall Of Fame

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    More good news today:

    One major computer maker is saying:
    Quote
    At this point in time, we anticipate constraints on supplies of HDDs to begin in mid-November. Snip... Unfortunately, it is very uncertain when the HDD industry will fully recover its production capacity, but we currently expect shortages to last into the first calendar quarter of 2012.
    End Quote
     
  16. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    From Cnet yesterday:
     
  17. P Smith

    P Smith Mr. FixAnything

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    And I'm pinching myself for ignorance to stop at Costco last Friday and get Goflex 2 TB external drive for $69 ! Really foolish behavior ! :D
     
  18. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Well!!! And why didn't you pick one up for me too????:D
     
  19. P Smith

    P Smith Mr. FixAnything

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    Where is you've been a few days ago !!!! YOU SHOULD POST AND PM SUCH DEALs TO US IMMEDIATELY !!! :D
     
  20. JeffN9

    JeffN9 Legend

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    I checked Newegg yesterday and it appeared that most of the 2tb EHD's had almost doubled in price from what they were a month ago. I think if you can still find one at a reasonable price you might want to grab it.
     

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