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HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray War Thread - Update: Toshiba formally announces end of HD DVD

Discussion in 'The Movies' started by Nick, Apr 23, 2007.

  1. Jul 26, 2007 #101 of 3123
    hdtvfan0001

    hdtvfan0001 Well-Known Member

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    Target?

    Are you kidding....

    They may be big in retail...but not in electronics sales, especially $500 Blu Ray units....heck...the big box stores have trouble selling those.

    On Amazon (who sells more electronics in one month that Target will in 2 years) the only HD disk players that are selling (3 of the top 15 players for any platform) are HD DVD units. Blue Ray's first listing in terms of sales is barely in the top 40.

    To date, if you exclude PS3's, there's a 60/40 HD DVD player advantage in the U.S. and 70/30 advantage in Europe. Disk sales worldwide are virtually even.

    Since the PS3's haven't seemed to give Blu Ray any disk sales advantages, Sony has failed miserably with their Blu Ray format.

    Right now, movie viewers are buying HD DVD. Game players are buying PS3's and renting movies, not buying them (in general). The disk sales numbers support this fact.

    More new HD disk title releases have been announced for the timeframe between now and Nov 1 on HD DVD than Blu Ray...and there are some major titles set for the holiday season on HD DVD.

    HD DVD disks are less expensive, and their players are 1/2 the cost.

    Based on all this....HD DVD will win out.
     
  2. Jul 27, 2007 #102 of 3123
    Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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    Who knows...

    Personally I don't by consumer electronics at Target but that's because I'm within shooting distance of two Circuit City's, two Best Buy's, and there's a Fry's on my way home from work. Not everyone is so lucky. If you're in the middle of nowhere and your choices are Wal-Mart, Target, or the internet, maybe you do buy your electronics there.

    My local Target stocks as decent supply of LCD TV's, and their stock seems to stay fresh so they must sell them.

    Now, if Wal-Mart enters the fray with a $199 HD-DVD player, I say call the game right there for HD-DVD.
     
  3. Jul 27, 2007 #103 of 3123
    allargon

    allargon Legend

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    Basically, Target and Wal-Mart are shaking Toshiba and Sony down.

    Sony paid for the endcap and put their previously "premium" brand where it had not been sold in a long time.

    Toshiba needs to hit Microsoft (and maybe Universal) up for some money and pay for their own endcaps at Fry's, Best Buy, Target, Wal-Mart, K-Mart (still matters in urban areas), Costco, Sams, Circuit City, etc. with a $199 (really $99-150 is the sweet spot) player. Then it really will be game over. They also need to have Universal bribe RedBox to counter the Blockbuster announcement. (Do you really think Netflix and Blockbuster are causing each other that much pain? I do believe there's at least one additional element at work.)
     
  4. Jul 27, 2007 #104 of 3123
    BudShark

    BudShark New Member

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    I don't think price is the #1 component here.

    I don't care if you offerred me a $49 HD-DVD player. Sure I'd buy it, but I wouldn't be satisfied until I could get Sony, Fox, Disney, et al on the HD player. Thats where the general consensus comes from that Blu-Ray is here to stay, but HD-DVD might or might not be.

    Yes - we are probably heading toward dual-format players as the solution long term, but to declare HD-DVD as the winner would, in my opinion, to be declaring High Definition video discs as a total loss.

    My reason for this is simple: content. If a significant amount of current release blockbusters are only on Blu-Ray - but HD-DVD has "won" because of a low price player, then HD movies are not what most people are renting/watching.

    Sony won't fold anytime soon. Disney won't fold anytime soon. So that means from this summer alone Spider-Man and Pirates will NOT be on HD-DVD within the next 1-2 years. That doesn't count any of the other Blu-Ray exclusives because those studios might jump ship.

    So that leaves price. And legitimately the price differential is about $200 right now - but BOTH are priced too high for mass buying by the consumer to influence the studios. So when will they drop? And to what? Probably safe to assume we will see $150 for HD-DVD and $299 for Blu-Ray black friday deals - with normal price in the $199/$349 range for the winter. But still... I'm guessing not mass purchasing or mass returns (Wife or parents bought Blu-Ray but you wanted HD-DVD or reverse). And besides - who buys a new player without new movies? So when they go to try to match player=titles and find confusion they'll just buy something else.

    So... again, in my opinion this winter will NOT decide anything. Maybe Christmas 2008 will. But every month that passes Blu-Ray will erode the price differential. There just isn't enough room anymore. Six months ago the differential was generally about $400 - ($499 vs. $899). Now its $200 ($299 vs. $499). Every move HD-DVD makes, Blu-Ray can counter. And by this time next year - the differential will likely be insignificant ($50-$75).

    So - again - I think Target is irrelevant. Blockbuster is marginal. Any shifting or restricting of distribution of players or movies doesn't matter. Its still too early. And by the time it does matter, the only difference will be titles. And Blu-Ray has that game won. HD-DVD has to win it now. But the market isn't ready for it and its biggest weakness (titles) is already starting to show.

    Chris
     
  5. Jul 27, 2007 #105 of 3123
    machavez00

    machavez00 Hall Of Fame

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    Phoenix,...
    and Sony said they would never make a VHS machine
     
  6. Jul 27, 2007 #106 of 3123
    BudShark

    BudShark New Member

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    :rolleyes:

    Ummm... yeah but you forgot to mention it took them 13 years. So I guess if you consider 2020 "soon"... sure your point makes sense.

    Chris
     
  7. Jul 27, 2007 #107 of 3123
    Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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    Chris, I respectfully disagree. If the price is low enough, a certain segment of the population will buy one because it's cheap enough to be disposable. Right now the large surge isn't coming because people are afraid to commit to a losing format. At a low enough price, I believe they will.

    As far as number of titles, neither format has anywhere near the number of titles to guarantee success, and the gap between them (given the low number of titles) is statistically irrelevant.
     
  8. Jul 27, 2007 #108 of 3123
    Cholly

    Cholly Old Guys Rule! DBSTalk Club

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    I wonder how low the prices will really go. I'm personally format neutral, even though I have a Toshiba HD-A2 HD DVD player. FWIW, the picture quality of HD DVD's on this unit as seen on my 55 inch Sony RP LCD TV is outstanding. If I were to have any complaints, it would be about Dolby Digital Plus being converted to DTS for my Yamaha surround receiver.
    I'd like to see an objective comparison of the two formats -- one which shows the strengths and weeknesses, the pros and cons of the two in a way that prospective buyers can understand.
    Granted, the fact that Sony has Disney and Fox distributing exclusively on Blu-ray, and Target and BJ's both selling only Blu-Ray players bodes well for that format and ill for HD DVD. Further, when you look at a list of the members of the board of Blu-ray Disc Association, it is formidable:

    Apple Computer, Inc.
    Dell Inc.
    Hewlett Packard Company
    Hitachi, Ltd.
    LG Electronics Inc.
    Matsu****a Electric Industrial Co., Ltd.
    Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
    Pioneer Corporation
    Royal Philips Electronics
    Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
    Sharp Corporation
    Sony Corporation
    Sun Microsystems, Inc.
    TDK Corporation
    Thomson Multimedia
    Twentieth Century Fox
    Walt Disney Pictures
    Warner Bros. Entertainment

    The HD DVD promotion group has many members who also support Blu-ray. Member list can be found at http://www.hddvdprg.com/eng/about/member.html

    Is this a Betamax vs. VHS battle? Possibly so. Interestingly, the DVD Forum supports HD DVD exclusively. Most major movie studios support both formats, hedging their bets, but also giving Blu-ray a decided advantage when it comes to the number of titles available.
     
  9. Jul 27, 2007 #109 of 3123
    BudShark

    BudShark New Member

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    I think the market has changed. How many people who have HDTVs (again we are talking a smaller than "everyone" market here) bought the cheapest thing out there? Look at Plasma, LCD, etc. They are neither the highest quality nor the lowest price. They are however the "coolest". I think the HD market has shown that splash and flash appeals to this segment more than cash (sorry for the bad rhyme! ;) )

    So then what will draw people to a format in large numbers? I think a consensus winner (which is more marketing than anything), availability, and titles. This is much different than VHS - and its a mistake to compare them. We are talking about a mature market (home movies) with a stable platform (DVD) and a desire to move to the next technology. To me, it is all about titles and availability.

    My personal guess is the $$$ difference will be small enough its irrelevant by mid-2008. Studios will not shift within the next 12 months, giving Blu-Ray a commanding new title availability (not transferred old titles, but new titles). And Blu-Ray will eventually be the winner with HD-DVD fading until the point that dual format players are cheap enough that HD-DVD compatibility is included bringing the HD-DVD holdouts and the small studios into the fold (because of the cheaper HD-DVD manufacturing cost).

    But I'm as prophetic as my dog - so its just as likely that Sony will announce tomorrow they are making HD-DVD players and publishing HD-DVD titles!

    Chris
     
  10. Jul 27, 2007 #110 of 3123
    Drew2k

    Drew2k New Member

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    As pointed out, there currently is no clear-cut winner in terms of unit sales of either players or movie titles, and each faction has lined up a number of movie studios exclusive to their format.

    However if the HD-DVD player prices start to drop and HD-DVD players make their ways into "average" home theaters at a faster rate than Blu-Ray players, how long before the Blu-Ray studios start to notice they are missing out on selling their titles because they are exclusive to Blu-Ray? How long before they start to make HD-DVD titles because they want their product to reach the consumers who are NOT buying their Blu-Ray titles?

    I could ask the same if the situation was reversed and suddenly the price of Blu-Ray players dropped.
     
  11. Jul 28, 2007 #111 of 3123
    Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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    I hope you're wrong. I don't care what format wins but I'm very tire of there being no clear winner. I hope one format breaks out and the other breaks down. I think a draw is the worst possible scenario... I think the market is too small at the moment to support as much fragmentation as there is right now.
     
  12. Jul 28, 2007 #112 of 3123
    machavez00

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    from another thread
    I have read that HD-DVD sales are much higher that Bluray in Europe
     
  13. Jul 28, 2007 #113 of 3123
    jpl

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    Don't know if anyone's posted this one yet, but I found it interesting:

    http://reviews.cnet.com/4520-6449_7-6754683-1.html?tag=nl.e497

    I've also gotta disagree that cost won't be a major consideration in determining who wins the war. I've been looking to upgrade our DVD player, and I've been weighing both formats, and I have to say, that Toshiba A2 is looking mighty appealing - especially for the price ($239 at Circuit City).

    I do agree that combo units will eventually be the silver bullet... eventually. The one difference between this war and the VHS/beta war is the fact that both of these formats use the same medium. But the price for those units right now is just in the stratosphere. That price advantage that HD DVD has is not to be glossed over - many people make these decisions mostly based on price. For example, at $250, I can convince my wife that we need to go HD... but I can't make the same argument (as effectively) with a $600 BluRay player. Will that be enough to bring about a victor? Hardly, but it's a very real consideration.
     
  14. Jul 28, 2007 #114 of 3123
    eahmjh

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    We just received the Panasonic Bluray player @ CC and in the box are 5 discs included.
    The other BR players are offering a 5 discs rebate coupon.
    Blockbuster is only offer BR rental movies.

    Bluray might have a chance of winning but the race aint over yet.

    Samsung has a Bluray HD combo unit, so no matter which one wins you win as a comsumer.
     
  15. Jul 28, 2007 #115 of 3123
    allargon

    allargon Legend

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    Blockbuster is offering only BR's at certain brick and mortar stores. They still rent HD-DVD'S online. Plus, they only rent regular DVD's at most of their stores.

    It's cheaper to buy two standalone players than to buy a combo unit from Sansung or LG. :confused:

    Bluray has had the press momentum lately plus they have some strong backers. Fox/MGM are in the Blu-ray camp. However, they haven't released movies in HD a long, long while. There is a replication capacity shortage in the Blu-ray world. This is why there is very little adult content on Blu-ray. (It's not the 80's, but this still matters.) Bluray doesn't even have finalized specs, but that doesn't matter in the war of perception. A lot of the companies in the Bluray group are those that have beaten Sony in previous format wars. As a result, they may be coaching Sony to prevent them from making the same mistakes.

    HD-DVD has been sloppy lately. Toshiba's trying its little heart out. Universal has hardly released any good exclusives on HD-DVD. Warner and Paramount are format neutral so they don't help. The adult film industry has started cranking out quite a few titles on HD-DVD. Many people think Toshiba's HD-DVD are near HD or upconverters not full HD. (Honestly, this is a problem with all the optical HD players.)

    Short of Universal going neutral (I see Lionsgate going neutral before anyone else), this will continue for another 3 years. The high-def optical market is tiny (a few million per year?) compared to the standard def DVD market.

    Joe Sixpack still thinks progressive scan standard DVD on his 37" 720P Vizio LCD *is* high definition! :nono2:

    (Note: I'm format neutral, but I bought a Toshiba A20 first since it was cheaper and it would play all the high def pr0n!)
     
  16. Jul 29, 2007 #116 of 3123
    Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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    Engadget just reported that Target will be carrying HD-DVD after all...

    I guess the wars continue.
     
  17. Jul 29, 2007 #117 of 3123
    Nick

    Nick Retired, part-time PITA DBSTalk Club

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    Link, please.
     
  18. Jul 29, 2007 #118 of 3123
    Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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  19. Jul 29, 2007 #119 of 3123
    Nick

    Nick Retired, part-time PITA DBSTalk Club

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    Thanks a bunch, Shadow. That's certainly better news for HD DVD supporters
     
  20. Jul 30, 2007 #120 of 3123
    wakajawaka

    wakajawaka Godfather

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    Has anyone considered that the longer the format war continues the more likely both formats will die?

    I won't touch either format until there is only one on the market.
     

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