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Is time running out for Blu-Ray?

Discussion in 'Blu-Ray Hardware' started by Chris Blount, Jan 14, 2009.

  1. Jan 15, 2009 #61 of 149
    spartanstew

    spartanstew Dry as a bone DBSTalk Club

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    Thankfully with this economy, that may never happen.
     
  2. Jan 15, 2009 #62 of 149
    Mike Bertelson

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    Having worked in IT for a few years I would have to ask...

    When did people start backing up their files? :lol:

    Mike
     
  3. Jan 15, 2009 #63 of 149
    djlong

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    As long as people consider 768Kbps to be "broadband", you will NEVER see digital downloads replace physical media on a wide scale.

    I have a 15Mbps fiber connection and I'm an anomaly. *Most* people don't have anywhere NEAR that service and the biggest batch of people who even come CLOSE (cable modem subscribers) are *sharing* bandwidth in their neighborhoods.

    Now, I get perfectly good PQ when I'm watching a "Terry Jones Medieval Lives" (BBC series) via Netflix downloads on my Xbox 360 - in *SD*. But compare that to a Blu-Ray of Planet Earth. Throttling down the bitrate so that you can do Planet Earth over a 'typical' connection is pathetic. It just won't work.

    We don't overbuild infrastructure these days.
     
  4. Jan 15, 2009 #64 of 149
    Tom Robertson

    Tom Robertson Lifetime Achiever DBSTalk Club

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    Chris,

    This is exactly the balanced perspective that I missed from reading your earlier posts. I completely agree with this analysis.

    Tho I do have to say, my grandkids (about the same age as your kids) have a big tendency to "acquire DVDs" via the redbox channel. Even at $1/day, if you forget to return them long enough, it's cheaper to just buy the disk. And they have done that many, many times. :)

    (Which completely argues in your favor that downloads might very well be their answer.) :)

    Cheers,
    Tom
     
  5. Jan 15, 2009 #65 of 149
    Button Pusher

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    Well I hope Blu-Ray sticks around. I just purchased a Sony BDP-S350 yesterday. I was trying to hold out but just had to get one. I remember Stuart giving this player a good review so I went with it. Now watch Blu-Ray die within the month. That is what happened to me when I purchased my HD-DVD player.:rolleyes::(
     
  6. Jan 15, 2009 #66 of 149
    tgr131

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    I'm might have missed it, but there's one other issue that needs to be mentioned here --

    We're all techies, and we enjoy the challenge of either wiring our entertainment center for ethernet, or getting the wireless connection to work on our Roku Box, etc. I think we're a ways away from that being mainstream.

    Most people want to buy a player, and hook it up, and have it work. There will still be a market for that type of consumer for a long time.

    I have a Bluray player, and I find it frustrating that different discs respond differently to the same action. Some discs resume nicely after being stopped. Some discs force me to start over. DVD's have menus that pop up-- many BD's just start. I find those little annoyances, well, annoying. But they are alien to me in the same way that plugging an IP address into a br player would be to many.

    David
     
  7. Jan 15, 2009 #67 of 149
    hdtvfan0001

    hdtvfan0001 Well-Known Member

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    You'll be fine for years to come....not to worry....
    That's a function of the Hollywood folks in their BD disk setup and design, not the player...but your point is well-taken.

    I still contend that until significant broadband (10Mbps or higher) is the norm, we won't see any kind of significant download adoption to up-end Blu Ray.
     
  8. Jan 15, 2009 #68 of 149
    Balestrom

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    I think Tom sort of hit the nail on the head here.

    While I understand that its the tech savy people out there that help lead the revolution, I believe its the standard family unit that drives or slows the advancement of new entertainment technoligy by sheer sales.

    My kids and wife would flog me if I played them a brand new movie, Narnia, as an example, that they could not watch over and over again when ever they wanted for years on other players/televisions in the house.

    Access to movies by children drives the entertainment sales of Disney for example. As any parent of young children know, movies like Nemo and Mermaid get played over and over and over through years of having children and if they get scratched or destroy, out to the store to be another.

    Just take a look at the movie rack for any parent with children ages 1-15.

    The average family has learned how to use DVD players and Blue Ray players, but as I think about the neighborhood I live in or look around the office I work, I cannot think of anyone save a few who download or would like to download enough to even bother learning.

    As long as the family unit doesn't care about the technology or cannot utilize it effectively, then it won't become a large niche. As Tom indicated, the current trend in our area and many others is the purchase of DVD players in the car.

    The more something is cemented into our standard way of living, the harder it becomes to change it.

    Think of the amount of people currently using HD with DirecTV. Its been around for a long time, but most viewers only watch SD. How much longer will it take for the technology of HD to overtake SD? Ask the family unit.

    As another example, look at this whole mess in switching to digital siginals... our local ABC just had a half hour program the other night trying to educate people. To me, it simple. But, to spend a half hour trying to explain to their veiwing audience how they will be affected by the switch, tells me that there is a large percentage of the population who doesn't get it. And they are going to download movies? Those are the same people still using VCR's to record instead of DVR's because they are scared to switch or think it will be to complicated or believe the just don't need it. However, they are probably the same people who are currently popping Ben Ten season II disc 1 into their DVD player for there son (as long as they live in Iowa and schools are closed because its -19 outside right now.) :grin:

    So, that leaves your 15 year old child who is probably spends half his/her day texting. They will probably download movies in college (if it still be had on the cheap) and probably into their early twenties. Then they will meet a spouse, who is a hair dresser or an accountant and doesn't really care about downloading or technology and is 10 years behind the times (in tech terms). This new spouse will from time to time want to watch their favorite sappy movie on cold winters nights with popcorn, the 2015 remake of When Harry Met Sally. Then they will have children. And grandparents will get those children DVDs.. because of course they are 30 years behind the times and the whole cycle will begin again, with perhaps some new modifications in technology.... Okay, maybe that was over generalized.

    Long dull story shortened.... the family unit drives entertainment. If they don't care, then all this downloading will only become is a small niche.
     
  9. Jan 15, 2009 #69 of 149
    dettxw

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    edit - got better state locations for Ultimate from their website.

    For those in New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, & Minnesota Ultimate Electronics is selling the Sony BDP-S550 Blu-ray player for $245 from 5-9pm today. :)
     
  10. Jan 15, 2009 #70 of 149
    spartanstew

    spartanstew Dry as a bone DBSTalk Club

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    Why do you think that?

    The ability to access an online forum doesn't mean someone's a "techie".
     
  11. Jan 15, 2009 #71 of 149
    Alan Gordon

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    I'll be 28 next month, so I'm not sure whether or not I'm included in your "younger generation" anymore, but I do want to add a couple of comments:

    I really don't buy a lot of music these days. I have a few artists I buy every album of, and I often pick up the Now That's What I Call Music CD volumes.

    However, I have purchased music from iTunes as well. It's GREAT! I don't have to buy a whole album if I only want 1 (ONE) song. It's also great for picking up some obscure music. I know many people who buy from iTunes, for the very same reasons...

    However, while I may want only one song from an album, I DO (generally) want a whole movie.

    I know a lot of people who watch movies mainly via cable/satellite or rental outlet (mostly via rental stores, but I know one Netflix user). However, all of them usually own at least a dozen movies on DVD... sometimes more!

    I expect at least 10 years out of Blu-ray before "digital downloads" start becoming the dominant thing... and then I believe it's possible that both could possibly co-exist for several years after for us "older" folks who still want hard copies, and for those of us who like giving movies as gifts.

    ~Alan
     
  12. Jan 15, 2009 #72 of 149
    rudeney

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    Well, you can sort of do this with a subscription to MS TechNet, MSDN, or MAPS for Partners. MAPS seems to be the best deal at $300 per year.
     
  13. Jan 15, 2009 #73 of 149
    rudeney

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    You guys are alright in my book! Hunt for Red October is one of my favorite movies, too. And now *I* also have to decide how buy now or wait...HMM!
     
  14. Jan 15, 2009 #74 of 149
    rudeney

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    The comparison to downloading movies vs. downloading music is not apples to apples. Music can easily be taken with you and enjoyed in the background - home, car, work, beach, etc. Movies are a different sort of entertainment where you generally set aside two hours for viewing in a specific place. I know many music players also double as "movie" players, but few people really enjoy watching silver screen entertainment on a palm sized low-res screen.

    Also, the shift to downloads will likely not be the same as "owning' the disc. It's more likely to evolve into a PPV model. So, if I'm sitting on the couch one night and decide I's like to see The Hunt for Red October for the 18th time, I don't want to have to pay to download it and view it. I'd rather just pay $15-$20 once so the disc can be sitting in my closet, ready to pop into the player on a whim.
     
  15. Jan 15, 2009 #75 of 149
    mmccaugh

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    If you noticed that was the point of my post. If your situation becomes more prevalent then no one is going to download movies rather than buy them.
     
  16. Jan 15, 2009 #76 of 149
    mmccaugh

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    I believe it is a soft cap currently while they test the feasability.

    I find it absolutely laughable that comcast specificaly markets on the platform that their service is so much 'faster' than their competitions, yet that are simultaneously testing ways to limit your overall usage of their service. Instead of marketing ridiculous end user speeds that your backbone cannot actually support maybe a better solution would be to market realistic connection speeds that your network can actually support without limiting overall usage.
     
  17. Jan 15, 2009 #77 of 149
    tgr131

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    We all are able to access and frequent an online forum devoted to a fairly technical subject, which is more than the market I was referring to will do. (The bluray owner who just wants to buy the box and have it work, vs the gadget lovers like us who are willing to wire our entertainment centers with internet access) No judgment in that analysis, just making an observation.
     
  18. Jan 15, 2009 #78 of 149
    dettxw

    dettxw MRVing

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    Wouldn't you know, got there and of course they had none.
    (Sony BDP-S550 for $245)

    Was able to order one at the sale price though, should get it at least by Tuesday.

    I'll move the PS3 into my bedroom and set up the player in the living room. Then it can be controlled by a regular remote. My old gray-haired Mom never did figure out the PS3. :lol:
     
  19. Jan 15, 2009 #79 of 149
    hdtvfan0001

    hdtvfan0001 Well-Known Member

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    Just happened to get back from a quick stop at Blockbuster...they're up to 3 big rows of Blu Ray there now....and the Manager told me its up over 18% of his rentals...

    Last week, BD disk sales were up to 16.8% of movie disk sales....

    So the "traction of BD continues...
     
  20. Jan 15, 2009 #80 of 149
    smiddy

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    There has to be a certain amount of efficiency and as these folks get older they will look for the best value. So in order for that paradigm shift to occur it has to be worth it and I think it is doable with the right package. Heck, for that matter libraries could eventually become a thing of the past. I mean in the traditional sense, with a book repository. You could literally download the material you need when you need it and a similar scheme can be done with entertainment media too (not that books aren't that either, but you get the gest). It will all come down to the best value. If I know I will want to watch something over and over and over and over ad infinitum then the choice between NetFlix and hard copy, even at full price, hard copy will win out since I only pay once where I would have to continually pay with a NetFlix type service. The one thing that doesn't capture my interest is paying a monthly service for something I may or may not use...or at least get the value out I pay in (refering to Zune Social, though I imagine other music services are similar). Will it never capture the audience as a lion share, maybe. But it will likely never capture me. :eek2:
     

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