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Reverse Dust Bowl - Californian's Leaving

Discussion in 'The OT' started by phrelin, Jun 14, 2009.

  1. dettxw

    dettxw MRVing

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  2. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    That was mighty nice of you to decorate the map with a welcoming dot like this:

    [​IMG]
     
  3. dettxw

    dettxw MRVing

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  4. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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  5. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    I posted this in June of last year. It has taken a little longer to unfold, but this past week the State Legislative Analyst issued an outlook for the State General Fund Budget:
    If you don't pay much attention to California's problems and particularly if you don't follow my blog postings, it may be difficult to put this situation in perspective. But simply, as compared to the State General Fund spending in 2007-08 of $107.3 billion, in 2011-12 there will be $62± billion to spend - $45 billion less representing a 42% cut.

    The numbers confronting Governor-elect Jerry Brown and the Legislature, or Governor Moonbeam and the Deliberators as I like to call them, will probably look something like this:

    [​IMG]

    While the 2009-10 spending was already down $20 billion, those were the easy cuts. For even Republicans among The Deliberators who are concerned we haven't cut enough government spending, a 42% budget reduction should be somewhat surprising. For Democrats who realize that Governor Moonbeam has said he will not increase taxes except with voter approval, panic should be setting in as the remaining $25 billion in cuts need to put in place in the next six months.

    The level of demolition to our educational system will be catastrophic.

    With regard to reducing the level of care of children through health and welfare programs, these programs will lose at least two federal dollars for each state General Fund dollar cut. (Forget the elderly and disabled, we have to throw them under the bus.)

    State parks and environmental law enforcement will be competing with CalFire and all will lose. Bring out the padlocks for the park entrances. And who is going to spend money on enforcing those environmental regulations the voters just confirmed? In the same election, the voters eliminated the ability of the Legislature to levy fees to support enforcement.

    Other than to make permanent cuts of this magnitude, only one real option exists to improve revenue on a stable basis. Increase the Jarvis-Gann Proposition 13 property tax rate from 1% of assessed value to either 1½% or 2%. The only issue is how much do we want to increase revenue - $20± billion or $40± billion?

    Whether Governor Moonbeam could persuade the voters to approve such an increase is questionable, at best.

    The Great California Slump has left us with a 1.4 million job loss. In September, nine of the nation's 13 metropolitan areas with an unemployment rate of 15% or higher were in California. Among metropolitan areas with a population of 1 million or more, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario had the second-highest unemployment rate in the U.S. at 14.8 percent, just behind the 15-percent jobless rate in Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev.

    Nothing about this situation can lead one to believe that things will noticeably improve in this decade. Which leaves the government funding problem a permanent problem. If you have been reading my posts for the past two years, you know I've been saying that. Now the Legislative Analyst is saying it, referring to a "structural deficit" and offering charts like this:

    [​IMG]

    We are about to institutionalize the adage that our late President and Former California Governor Ronald Reagan recited about recessions "government is not the solution to our problems; government is the problem." He was our guy, so I guess we want to try it his way with less government. (Well, not how he did it, but what he said.)

    So watch us here in The Magic Kingdom of California. We'll show you just how to put into effect the major government reduction that many conservatives have espoused for years. Ironically, Democrats - Governor Moonbeam and the majority of The Deliberators - will have to do it.

    In the meantime, I expect to see more middle class residents move out as the "Reverse Dust Bowl" continues.
     
  6. Cholly

    Cholly Old Guys Rule! DBSTalk Club

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    Sadly, the situation in California is mirrored to a lesser extent in many other states. My present home state, North Carolina,has received several serious blows over the past ten years: the collapse of the textile and furniture industries, closure of the Phillip Morris plant and the banking crisis, to name a few. As a result, investments in infrastructure and education have taken a serious hit. The Charlotte-Mecklenburg School system is in dire straits. They've laid off hundreds of teachers and have just passed a plan that will close 10 schools, most of which are underused, under performing or both. Most of the underused schools are in areas of predominantly minority (black) population and are extremely important educational facilities - having very good academic performance, with high rates of graduation and students going on to college. The school board has been deluged with cries of racism and threats as a result of this plan.They've tried keeping buildings open by consolidation, effectively doing away with neighborhood schools and uprooting students.
    I'm sure this pattern exists in most states, with revenue sources for education drying up (declining property and sales taxes). We are rapidly becoming a "third world" nation with no middle class.
     
  7. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    The issue is a nationwide issue. While we see the hue and cry regarding cutting the federal deficit, IMHO the reality is that the next crash will be because of the state and local government problem. Texas, which unlike California is run by a Republican Governor and Legislature, is facing a deficit similar to California's despite all the glib partisan bickering in our country. From a Dallas News article headlined Legislature likely to cut deep to meet possible $25 billion budget gap:
    Hiding this information has become an art nationwide. That's why we in California will keep hearing from the press about a $25 billion cut when in fact the total 4-year cut will be $45 billion and will occur without a single comprehensive debate about policy.
     
  8. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    For those that follow California's political scene, to his credit Governor-elect Jerry Brown has been going around to explain just how bad the State's General Fund Budget situation is. As I noted above, education spending will have to be cut by about 50% since 2007-08.

    Now we have Los Angeles Schools to Seek Sponsors:
     
  9. fluffybear

    fluffybear Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    I always knew this day would come - The 3rd grade brought to you by Snickers
     
  10. May 5, 2012 #210 of 260
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    In case The Great California Slump (what I call our unfinished version of The Great Recession) wasn't bad enough....

    From a Sacramento Bee article California's Emerald Triangle pot market is hitting bottom:
    This is the area known as The Emerald Triangle:

    [​IMG]

    The article explains that after federal Drug Enforcement Administration agents raided a marijuana farm licensed by Mendocino County, County Supervisors were forced to rescind a program that allowed the sheriff to enforce through regular inspection a 99-plant limit on pot farms by attaching $50 zip ties to each plant. This brought in $630,000 in fees in two years.

    The Mendocino County Sheriff's Department spends about $6 million a year to target major grows, mostly managed by Mexican Cartel employees who are illegally growing on U.S. Forest Service, National Park, and State Park lands tens of thousands of plants, diverting water, fouling the environment, and occasionally killing hapless hikers.

    Until the Justice Department changed its policy and the State shut down its drug enforcement operation, law enforcement was engaging in firefights with Cartel employees on those public lands. Now they'll pretty much have free run of federal lands particularly as the federal agents are focusing on the really dangerous licensed and inspected medical marijuana growers.

    Apparently the federal government has decided it's better to outsource to foreign organizations and is "rubbing out" the competition for them. I live in an area that has been invaded by a Latin American equivalent of Blackwater effectively with the permission of the federal government.

    And to make matters worse, it's destroying the local economy. :nono:
     
  11. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    I was really irked reading this AP story this morning:
    It's really going to be hard to vote in June. If we could just vote "no" on our State Legislature rather than for candidates....
     
  12. Jun 2, 2012 #212 of 260
    SayWhat?

    SayWhat? Know Nothing

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  13. Jun 2, 2012 #213 of 260
    dettxw

    dettxw MRVing

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    Both Road & Track and Car & Driver are Hearst publications, and Car & Driver is already located in Ann Arbor. Maybe they'll share the same offices. But then how long before they're merged?
     
  14. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Occasionally I bring this thread up to note what reality in California looks like. From an AP article Many left behind as Silicon Valley rebounds:
    As the article explains, one primary problem is the high cost of living, particularly housing.

    Time for the reverse dust bowl to kick in again....
     
  15. Davenlr

    Davenlr Geek til I die

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    I know two people who have moved from California to Arkansas, and one that moved from Arkansas to California, so I guess in my circle, its kicked in.
     
  16. Phil T

    Phil T Active Member DBSTalk Club

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    It seems like we get a lot of CA folks moving here to CO. A lot of the housing developments sell a lot of high priced homes to former CA residents, who can get three times the house here then they could there. I could say the same if I moved back to OH, IN, KY or TN.
     
  17. phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    Today we have this California gas prices are second highest in the nation to help folks decide to leave:
     
  18. May 2, 2013 #218 of 260
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    The thing about a "reverse" dust bowl migration is that parts of California may become the "new dust bowl." Along with the lovely spring wildfires :sure: , we had this story today:
     
  19. Oct 9, 2014 #219 of 260
    phrelin

    phrelin Hall Of Fame DBSTalk Club

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    I had to dredge up this thread because while our new dust bowl is developing just fine due to the drought, as you may have read in many stories a significant economic problem in the Bay Area is developing as explained in A Plan for a More Inclusive San Francisco offering this graphic...

    [​IMG]

    ...which explains...

    ...and which notes (emphasis added):

    The result is a visible shift in attitudes about social and economic issues causing many long time residents to leave. Those that don't leave may be shocked by the cultural change that will wash over The City sometime in the next decade.
     
  20. Oct 9, 2014 #220 of 260
    Mark Holtz

    Mark Holtz Day Sleeper DBSTalk Club

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    I need to leave California. Period.
     

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