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TiVo Loses 130,000 More Subscribers (was: TiVo Announces Results...)

Discussion in 'DIRECTV General Discussion' started by Milominderbinder2, Nov 28, 2007.

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  1. Milominderbinder2

    Milominderbinder2 Cutting Edge: ECHELON '08

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    See TiVo's Quarterly Report from 11/28/07:

    http://investor.tivo.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-07-254939

    Summary of DIRECTV and TiVo results:

    Code:
    DIRECTV     07 Q3    07 Q2    07 Q1    06 Q4    06 Q3    06 Q2
    Net adds      240      128      235      275      165      125
    Tot Subs   16,556   16,316   16,188   15,953   15,678   15,513
     
    TiVo Subs   1,712    1,708    1,727    1,726    1,625    1,572
    DirecTiVo   2,355    2,489    2,615    2,718    2,809    2,846
    DTiVo Adds   -134     -126     -103      -91      -37      -29
    Total Subs  4,067    4,197    4,342    4,444    4,434    4,418
    Total Adds   -130     -145     -102       10       16        1
    TiVo posted a net loss of 130,000 subscribers for the quarter as DIRECTV posted a net gain of 240,000 subscribers.

    In the past 12 months, TiVo has lost 367,000 subscribers while DIRECTV has added 878,000 subscribers.

    Motley Fool notes in their article yesterday TiVo Tanked:

    "It's been six long months since TiVo made history with its first, and so far only, profitable quarter. that TiVo has had one profitable quarter since."

    Note that DIRECTV did not announce the launch of the new HD channels until October 14, 2007, 14 days after Q3 ended. The results of the launch of the new HD channels will not be reflected until next quarters results.

    - Craig
     
  2. Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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    Oh boy I'm sure the stockholders will love the Q4 results.
     
  3. Pink Fairy

    Pink Fairy Hall Of Fame

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    Wow.
     
  4. bonscott87

    bonscott87 Cutting Edge: ECHELON '07

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    DirecTivo subs keep dropping like flies yet DirecTV keeps growing. Same as last quarterly results. Yet there are those on TCF that keep claiming that Malone is going to run to Tivo and beg them to "save" DirecTV. Yea right.
     
  5. jefbal99

    jefbal99 Hall Of Fame

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    I've never been a Tivo user, but my HR20 is much better than my Moto box from Comcast.

    A few D* subs I know have successfully made the switch to the HR20 for the new HD channels from their HD10-250s
     
  6. tonyd79

    tonyd79 Hall Of Fame

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    Tivo is going to need the cable boxes. They better get cracking on that yet delayed again software on the Moto box.
     
  7. Milominderbinder2

    Milominderbinder2 Cutting Edge: ECHELON '08

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    Also note that when you compare subscribers...

    For DIRECTV and DIRECTiVo's, "Subscribers" is the number of households with one or more receivers's in use. Whether you use one receiver or 10, you are one subscriber.

    For standalone TiVo, TiVo counts each receiver as a subscriber. So if you go from 3 HR10's to 3 S3's, they lose 1 DIRECTiVo sub but gain 3 "TiVo Owned" subscribers. The first S3 subscription is $12.95 a month and the other two subscriptions would qualify for the Multi-Service Discount at $9.95 each.

    - Craig
     
  8. Doug Brott

    Doug Brott Lifetime Achiever DBSTalk Club

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    Wow, those numbers look bad. I heard a report on the radio about this last night and the comment was "Tivo lost money, but not as much as expected .. "

    The DVR is a great concept .. Thank you TiVo for your part .. But the one thing a company needs to continue operation is profitability ..
     
  9. itguy05

    itguy05 Legend

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    Mark my words, Tivo will be dead in 5 years.

    Why?

    Do the math:

    TivoHD box $300 + $12.95/mo
    DirecTV HD Box $199 + $5.99/mo
    Comcast HDDVR $13.99/mo

    For the majority all 3 are interchangeable, and that's not including the hassles getting the TivoHD working with the Cablecards and the lack of functionality.

    Most won't go through the hassle of a Tivo when you can call up Comcast or DTV and get it installed for next to nothing.
     
  10. Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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    engadget.com has an article claiming that Nero, maker of OEM CD burning software, is partnering with TiVo for a PC version of the software. Given that Nero is not universally well regarded, I do not view this as a long term win for TiVo. It's possible that they will find success in the software market and abandon hardware, but I believe that would continue to marginalize them.

    http://www.engadget.com/2007/11/28/tivo-coming-to-pc-via-nero-software/
     
  11. jjohns

    jjohns Godfather

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    Tivo going belly up may be good for employess of and the corporation DirecTV, but is it really good for the average individual DVR customer?
     
  12. harsh

    harsh Beware the Attack Basset

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    The other telling statistic from the TiVo report was that DirecTiVo customers still represent 2.5 million of their users. As even SD customers are beginning to be nudged to Ka ready receivers, this number can only continue to slide.

    Q4 (and possibly Q1 2008) won't benefit from the Comcast and Cox agreements.
    The confusion about being able to get TiVo-inspired functionality from the cable provider for no up front and a comparable monthly price will cause a further erosion of TiVo revenues.

    I would surmise that like ReplayTV before it (which is now reduced to a computer based DVR), the TiVo ship is sailing off into the sunset and taking on water.
     
  13. bonscott87

    bonscott87 Cutting Edge: ECHELON '07

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    And there is something to keep in mind about that 2.5 million number: It would be any subscriber household that still has at least one DirecTivo activated.

    So in other words my account would still classify as one of those 2.5 million simply because I still have a DirecTivo active in the patio. Don't really use it much anymore but it's active. And so will a lot of other subs as they move to HD. There certainly is no reason to deactive any DirecTivo just because you go HD, use it in another room or something. They are still very capable machines and the R15 doesn't offer any real reason to upgrade for most. I personally will keep this DirecTivo going until either the mythical R16 with SWM capability comes to market or the HR20/21 series gets MRV at which point I'd get another one of those despite not having HD in that room simply so I can share shows from my home theater to it.
     
  14. bhelton71

    bhelton71 Cutting Edge: ECHELON '09

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    Not to draw comparisons (directly anyway) - didn't Tivo just announce a deal with Nero for PC based dvr. I just don't think they or Replay can compete with Sage or BeyondTV. Nero is already bloated enough.
     
  15. Milominderbinder2

    Milominderbinder2 Cutting Edge: ECHELON '08

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    Also Nero does not sell subscriptions, just software. If you watch for the Fry's rebate you can get Nero for nothing one week a month.

    So Nero will be sharing some of nothing with TiVo?

    - Craig
     
  16. RobertE

    RobertE New Member

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    It would not surprise me if the loss for Q4 was north of 175,000.

    I can confirm at least 1. Customer had an R10 that died. Only DVR in the house. She now has a R15. Contrary to diehard Tivo huggers, she found it very easy to use after 10 minutes.
     
  17. sNEIRBO

    sNEIRBO Icon

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    All those losses and I know of 4 subs they gained last quarter. My X bought 2 and two different friends both bought TiVos. I was starting to think they were making a come back . . .

    I tried explaining to all three of them that they could get free DVRs from DirecTV, but they didn't want to listen to me. I guess TiVo was running some $150 rebate special - that's why my friends jumped on board. My X has been a stand alone TiVo user for a couple of years. They offered her 2 additional dual tuner TiVos for FREE as long as she signed a 2 year contract with them.
     
  18. bhelton71

    bhelton71 Cutting Edge: ECHELON '09

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    Not even sure what the product would even be - "Tivo with Nero Burning Rom" or "Nero Ultimate ( now with Tivo Inside ! )"
    But where they could seriously win - if a PCI CableCard or a PCI satellite tuner (not the European FTA stuff - but Directv or Dish) were ever created.
     
  19. Stuart Sweet

    Stuart Sweet The Shadow Knows!

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    Hey, at least it looks more likely that TiVo will get some cash from Echostar. That is, if they can stay in business until the lawsuit is over, right?
     
  20. tfederov

    tfederov Well-Known Member

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    When it was all said and done, the USFL won $1 from the NFL FWIW.
     
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