Jump to content


Welcome to DBSTalk


Sign In 

Create Account
Welcome to DBSTalk. Our community covers all aspects of video delivery solutions including: Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS), Cable Television, and Internet Protocol Television (IPTV). We also have forums to discuss popular television programs, home theater equipment, and internet streaming service providers. Members of our community include experts who can help you solve technical problems, industry professionals, company representatives, and novices who are here to learn.

Like most online communities you must register to view or post in our community. Sign-up is a free and simple process that requires minimal information. Be a part of our community by signing in or creating an account. The Digital Bit Stream starts here!
  • Reply to existing topics or start a discussion of your own
  • Subscribe to topics and forums and get email updates
  • Send private personal messages (PM) to other forum members
  • Customize your profile page and make new friends
 
Guest Message by DevFuse

Photo

AT&T Loss: How Bad for Dish?


  • Please log in to reply
11 replies to this topic

#1 OFFLINE   phrelin

phrelin

    Hall Of Fame

  • Registered
  • 13,372 posts
  • LocationNorthern California Redwoods
Joined: Jan 18, 2007

Posted 08 October 2008 - 03:38 PM

At the end of what I felt was a thoughtful article on the whole AT&T partnership issue and the future of DBS TV, the writer said:

The bidding war between Dish Network and DirecTV to win the AT&T deal must have been intense, and whatever DirecTV promised is likely to be reflected in the raising of DirecTV’s already high subscriber acquisition cost.

Thus while Dish Network faces tough times, for DirecTV the words of poet John Donne also apply, “…send not to know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee.”



...Ads Help To Support This SIte...

#2 OFFLINE   HDRoberts

HDRoberts

    Godfather

  • Registered
  • 306 posts
Joined: Dec 11, 2007

Posted 08 October 2008 - 04:40 PM

I don't think it's that huge of deal. With Uverse continuing to expand, AT&T will push that and not market DirecTV. I thought I remembered seeing the in 2Q that AT&T only signed up 3,000 customers, down from over 20,000 the previous quarter. I bet they don't get better for DirecTV.

#3 OFFLINE   Gilitar

Gilitar

    Legend

  • Registered
  • 106 posts
Joined: Jul 31, 2004

Posted 08 October 2008 - 05:31 PM

Nope, not a big deal at all. AT&T isn't pushing TV with the exception of U-Verse.

#4 OFFLINE   phrelin

phrelin

    Hall Of Fame

  • Topic Starter
  • Registered
  • 13,372 posts
  • LocationNorthern California Redwoods
Joined: Jan 18, 2007

Posted 08 October 2008 - 06:21 PM

Well, that's not exactly how the article presents the numbers:

During the first six months of 2008, AT&T accounted for 15% of Dish’s gross subscriber adds, or 222,000 of its 1.48 million gross new subscribers. During this same period, almost as many Dish subscribers churned off the service as were added, leaving Dish with only 10,000 net new subscribers. Without AT&T’s contribution as a distribution channel, Dish would have suffered a net loss of over 200,000 subscribers during the first half of the year.

But maybe his numbers are off.

#5 OFFLINE   HDRoberts

HDRoberts

    Godfather

  • Registered
  • 306 posts
Joined: Dec 11, 2007

Posted 08 October 2008 - 07:50 PM

Well, here in Cleveland, I have not seen and add for AT&T/Dish in a very long time, including before the contract was not to be renewed. But I see a ton of ads for Uverse.

Its interesting his numbers are for "the first six months." It would be interesting to see the actual numbers Q1 v. Q2 (and, soon, Q3). Its also interesting that he does not show that, even without AT&T, some of those customers would have signed up for Dish. He acts as without AT&T, 222,000 would not have signed up. While not all would have subscribed, a few would have. Without AT&T, Dish signed up 1.26 million subscribers, a lot more than AT&T got. Clearly, Dish is capable of signing up large volume of customers, they now just need to do better, which I think they are with the TurboHD campaign.

#6 OFFLINE   James Long

James Long

    Ready for Uplink!

  • Super Moderators
  • 39,509 posts
Joined: Apr 17, 2003

Posted 08 October 2008 - 09:10 PM

Well, that's not exactly how the article presents the numbers:

During the first six months of 2008, AT&T accounted for 15% of Dish’s gross subscriber adds, or 222,000 of its 1.48 million gross new subscribers. During this same period, almost as many Dish subscribers churned off the service as were added, leaving Dish with only 10,000 net new subscribers. Without AT&T’s contribution as a distribution channel, Dish would have suffered a net loss of over 200,000 subscribers during the first half of the year.

But maybe his numbers are off.

The numbers are reasonable but they assume DISH would not have added any of the AT&T customers if it were not for the deal.

The base numbers are from the quarterly reports. Interpretations vary. :)

#7 OFFLINE   dishguy77

dishguy77

    AllStar

  • Registered
  • 54 posts
Joined: Oct 08, 2008

Posted 08 October 2008 - 09:26 PM

In the area I live AT&T sent a letter out to all of their customers telling them that as of the end of June 2008 they were discontinuing their cable service. As a result many of these customers signed on for Dish Network service just to keep their bundle. But AT&T also promised to have U-verse live by the end of the year. Seems very planned out to me.

#8 OFFLINE   moghedien

moghedien

    Legend

  • Registered
  • 200 posts
Joined: Dec 03, 2007

Posted 08 October 2008 - 09:53 PM

Will people who have Dish through AT&T start getting a separate bill from Dish once the agreement ends?

#9 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

Stewart Vernon

    Excellent Adventurer

  • Moderators
  • 19,505 posts
  • LocationKittrell, NC
Joined: Jan 07, 2005

Posted 08 October 2008 - 11:49 PM

As James alludes... the assumption that Dish would not have added any of the 200,000 or so AT&T subscribers without AT&T is not a good one and has no basis.

To assume that one would have to assume that the only reason those subscribers went with Dish was because of the bundle and that none of them would have done so otherwise.

Further, one has to assume that Dish would not have done anything else to bring in new subscribers during that time. My gut says that if Dish didn't have AT&T bringing in new customers they would have been doing something else to bring them in themselves. For that matter, I'm not sure AT&T did much in the way of "selling" Dish to people that didn't call specifically asking for the bundle.

-- I like to go fast (not really)


#10 OFFLINE   jacmyoung

jacmyoung

    Hall Of Fame

  • Registered
  • 6,544 posts
Joined: Sep 08, 2006

Posted 09 October 2008 - 12:48 AM

But I thought the quote from the OP was really saying the ATT deal is a bad deal because it will cause the D* sub acquisition cost to go up, meaning it will be a money losing deal, or a "loss leader", as some said about the ATT/E* deal.

If so it might have made sense for E* to let it go, or the title of this thread should have been: ATT loss: a good thing for DISH?:)

#11 OFFLINE   James Long

James Long

    Ready for Uplink!

  • Super Moderators
  • 39,509 posts
Joined: Apr 17, 2003

Posted 09 October 2008 - 12:56 AM

How about "AT&T Loss: Better than TiVo". :D

#12 OFFLINE   phrelin

phrelin

    Hall Of Fame

  • Topic Starter
  • Registered
  • 13,372 posts
  • LocationNorthern California Redwoods
Joined: Jan 18, 2007

Posted 09 October 2008 - 01:01 AM

But I thought the quote from the OP was really saying the ATT deal is a bad deal because it will cause the D* sub acquisition cost to go up, meaning it will be a money losing deal, or a "loss leader", as some said about the ATT/E* deal.

If so it might have made sense for E* to let it go, or the title of this thread should have been: ATT loss: a good thing for DISH?:)

That's what the article implied as a big picture. He's looking at Fios and U-verse and questioning the long term advantage for the DBS providers from an association with telcos.

But he also has an opinion that includes a back-handed compliment to Dish but a doubtful prognosis for DBS in the long term:

There is no pleasure in piling on Dish Network, an innovative and entrepreneurial company. For what it’s worth, DirecTV is also far from a long-term sure thing. For several years, I have opined that both DBS operators face a strategic competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis the multiplay cable and telco operators.

I don't entirely agree with him, but he makes some points about the overall picture regarding the packages and issues associated with them including cable v dsl for ISP's.




spam firewall