Posted 30 October 2008 - 01:41 PM
Blu-Ray is FAR from dead.
The real problem is that many people had false expectations for it; they assumed that it would grow as fast as DVD did (the fastest-adopted CE device in history). That just isn't realistic.
DVDs are NOT HD, but for a lot of folks who either don't have HDTVs or have HDTVs but no HD programming, DVDs look "great" compared to normal SDTV. For many of these people DVD is "good enough", just as many people used to say that VHS is "good enough" when DVD players were first released and DVDs were $30-35 for new releases.
Most people I know already own their favorite movies on DVD, and most families own 100-200 DVDs. They are going to be relutant to spend any more money on most of those movies, and honestly, many of them won't be any better in HD. Is Zoolander going to be any funnier in HD? Enough to justify the expense? No.
What WILL happen is that people will buy Blu-Rays for action, Sci-Fi, and horror/thriller movies, where HD makes the biggest visual and aural impact. They will re-buy Star Wars, Indiana Jones, and other classics action movies on Blu-Ray. They won't buy Steel Magnolias or Tootsie again, because the cost/benefit ratio isn't there.
But... once they have Blu-Ray, it's likely that they'll start buying NEW movies in Blu-Ray almost exclusively, even ones that aren't major action movies. This will be especially true when you can get these titles on sale, where the price isn't too far from DVD price.
The pace of Blu-Ray adoption is going to be slower, no doubt, but it will happen. And unlike VHS-to-DVD, all Blu-Ray players are backwards compatible with DVD, so again, there's less incentive to re-buy those non-blockbusters if you already have them on DVD.
The people who counted on HD to duplicate what DVD did for the industry were simply deluding themselves. Today, there are far too many alternatives (including DVD) for one product to make such an impact.