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Guest Message by DevFuse

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DISH Network Announces Conference Call (5/11/09) for 1st Q 2009 Financial Results


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28 replies to this topic

#26 OFFLINE   Kheldar

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 09:46 PM

Last I was aware, Dish had around 13.7 million subscribers... so I'm not sure how a loss of 120,000 would drop them below 13 million. Or maybe I'm missing something.

Also.. In DirecTV's net gain, the whole story is not told. DirecTV gained 1.175 million subscribers and lost 715,000 subscribers to get that 460,000 net gain.

So, yes DirecTV did have a nice net gain... but still almost 3/4 of a million subscribers ran screaming from DirecTV.

DirecTV continues to do a MUCH better job at adding new customers than Dish does, BUT it is worth noting that at the same time DirecTV is NOT doing a good job of keeping subscribers.


Looking at the 2008 Annual Reports for DISH (page 38) and DirecTV (page 49) (since DISH's Q1 numbers haven't been released to compare with, and I can't find a Q4 report on DISH's site):

Total Subscribers as of Year-End 2008
DISH Net: 13.678 million
DirecTV: 17.621 million

Gross Subscriber Additions For All of 2008
DISH Net: 2.966 million
DirecTV: 3.904 million

Net Subscriber Additions For All of 2008
DISH Net: -102,000 (loss of 102,000)
DirecTV: 861,000 (gain)

From the two numbers above comes the total of disconnects
DISH Net: 2.966 million - (-102,000) = 3.068 million disconnected accounts
DirecTV: 3.904 million - 861,000 = 3.043 million

So, back to your quote:

DirecTV continues to do a MUCH better job at adding new customers than Dish does, BUT it is worth noting that at the same time DirecTV is NOT doing a good job of keeping subscribers.


Not only is D* adding more gross new customers, but is disconnecting less customers than E*. So, if "DirecTV is NOT doing a good job of keeping subscribers", then E* is doing even worse.

At least for the year 2008, DirecTV added more (938,000 more) and disconnected less (25,000 less) customers than DISH. That translates to DirecTV adding 963,000 more subscribers in 2008 than DISH Network did.
George Bernard Shaw: "We learn from experience that men never learn anything from experience." ;) :D

The 50-50-90 Rule: "Whenever you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability that you will get it wrong." -- Unknown ;)

Heinlein's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

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#27 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 08 May 2009 - 10:17 PM

...

From the two numbers above comes the total of disconnects
DISH Net: 2.966 million - (-102,000) = 3.068 million disconnected accounts
DirecTV: 3.904 million - 861,000 = 3.043 million

...

Not only is D* adding more gross new customers, but is disconnecting less customers than E*. So, if "DirecTV is NOT doing a good job of keeping subscribers", then E* is doing even worse.


I wouldn't feel that good, personally, in either case of losing 3 million subscribers. The difference between Dish vs DirecTV losses during that span (25,000) is negligible compared to the 3 million number.

Again, it is clear that DirecTV has been doing a MUCH better job at attracting new customers. This is where Dish is suffering most. They are not attracting new customers at the same rate as their primary competitor.

But many paint a picture that has customers leaving Dish for DirecTV in droves... and the numbers clearly don't support that. Clearly both Dish AND DirecTV have the same problem with customer retention. DirecTV's percentage is always going to look better since they have been around longer and have about 5 million more subscribers than Dish for that head start...

The fact remains, that both companies are bleeding customers... and no one really knows all the answers why to that aspect. What we do know, however, is that DirecTV is doing a much better job at replacing those lost customers.

So, if I'm Dish... while I'd certainly like to improve customer retention... the numbers don't lie, and I'd say my chief area for needed improvement would be in attracting new customers.

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#28 OFFLINE   Kheldar

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 11:48 AM

Looking at the 2008 Annual Reports for DISH (page 38) and DirecTV (page 49) (since DISH's Q1 numbers haven't been released to compare with, and I can't find a Q4 report on DISH's site):


Now that E*'s Q1 report is out, we can make a comparison to D*'s Q1 report:

Total Subscribers as of End of Q1 2009
DISH Net: 13,584,000
DirecTV: 18,081,000

Gross Subscriber Additions in Q1
DISH Net: 653,000
DirecTV: 1,175,000

Net Subscriber Additions in Q1
DISH Net: -94,000 (loss of 94,000)
DirecTV: 460,000

From the two numbers above comes the total of disconnects
DISH Net: 653,000 - (-94,000) = 747,000 (5.49% of quarter-end customer base)
DirecTV: 1,175,000 - 460,000 = 715,000 (3.95% of quarter-end customer base)
George Bernard Shaw: "We learn from experience that men never learn anything from experience." ;) :D

The 50-50-90 Rule: "Whenever you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability that you will get it wrong." -- Unknown ;)

Heinlein's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.

#29 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 11 May 2009 - 12:16 PM

Now that the results have been posted, let's continue the discussion here.

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What I do when I'm not here





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