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Future of TV Program Delivery


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28 replies to this topic

#1 OFFLINE   mreposter

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Posted 04 August 2009 - 05:44 PM

CBS Research Analyst discusses the future of program delivery
http://www.tvweek.co...search-guru.php

boiled down highlights include:
- DVRs are transitional technology to be replaced by internet delivery
- Internet-enabled TVs will show up in 2010 (no big surprise)
- Local affiliates are in trouble (if you read between the lines)
- Local news is about the only value add for local affiliates
- Nets have new opportunities to make money

I agree with most of what he said, but think there's still another shoe to drop as more and more programming moves from "scheduled" to on-demand.
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#2 ONLINE   SayWhat?

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Posted 04 August 2009 - 06:02 PM

I see internet delivery stumbling as more ISPs impose BW caps and/or per Mb fees.
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#3 OFFLINE   davring

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Posted 04 August 2009 - 06:13 PM

Internet delivery, at the speeds necessary for HD quality, is a long ways off for the masses, simultaneous multi-channel would be out of the question.
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#4 OFFLINE   say-what

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Posted 04 August 2009 - 06:57 PM

Until bandwidth is addressed and higher speed delivery is made available to everyone and at affordable prices - internet delivery will continue to be a novelty.

#5 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 04 August 2009 - 07:54 PM

Have to agree there... Internet delivery for the masses is quite a ways off.

The bandwidth isn't there for the masses, and really not sufficient even in the elite areas where folks have super-high-speed FIOS Internet. Also, the way ISPs are looking at pay-per-play on bandwidth, it will never happen on that front either.

I think certainly there could start to be some shows exclusive to Internet delivery. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see some more mainstream webisode-type shows start up to try and attract people... but I think it will be a niche for quite a while.

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#6 OFFLINE   LarryFlowers

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Posted 04 August 2009 - 08:06 PM

Everything he suggests will never even be possible without a drastic, non capped bandwidth increase across the board. There is no way that the current internet structure can support this. The USA lags seriously behind in bandwidth availability, we don't even rank in the top 10 of average internet speeds around the world.
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#7 OFFLINE   phrelin

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 01:34 PM

Heck, there's still a meaningful number of Americans who cannot get high speed internet (satellite internet services don't count).

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#8 OFFLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 01:35 PM

Internet delivery, at the speeds necessary for HD quality, is a long ways off for the masses, simultaneous multi-channel would be out of the question.

Agree....been saying that now for over a year as well.

Perhaps in 3-5 years, but not sooner.
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#9 OFFLINE   Stuart Sweet

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 01:40 PM

Sure it's possible that total on-demand internet-based delivery is possible in the future, but you need 15Mb downstream on a pretty reliable basis... that's what "high speed" means in 2009. (I remember when 1200 baud, or roughly .001Mb, was high speed.)

Perhaps someone will invent a miracle codec that allows for Blu-ray quality at 3Mbps but until then, I don't see it.

He is right, though, local affiliates are in trouble and that's trouble for everyone. When there are no newspapers or TV stations that serve your hometown, when it's easier to find out what they're wearing in Milan than what your kid's having for lunch... we're all in trouble.

Edited by Stuart Sweet, 05 August 2009 - 01:49 PM.

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#10 OFFLINE   phrelin

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 01:42 PM

He is right, though, local affiliates are in trouble and that's trouble for everyone. When there are no newspapers or TV stations that serve your hometown, when it's easier to find out what they're wearing in Milan than what your kid's having for lunch... we're all in trouble.

Do you ever feel like "the good old days" were less than 10 years ago?

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#11 OFFLINE   Stuart Sweet

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 01:48 PM

Yeah... when every city had a newspaper, a post office, a locally-owned hardware store, etc. etc. etc.
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#12 ONLINE   harsh

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 02:03 PM

Given that universal broadband access is the current pet project at the FCC, I think we can assume that nobody is particularly concerned about bandwidth. As long as the Comcasts, the Qworsts, the Verizons and the AT&Ts can bill you for something they'll make it happen; especially if the can make it traffic sensitive.

#13 ONLINE   SayWhat?

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 02:20 PM

^^^ Wasn't it called Internet 2.0 or something where they were talking about billing by traffic instead of ( or in addition to ) a flat monthly access rate?
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#14 ONLINE   SayWhat?

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 02:29 PM

This thread brings up a memory of an interview on a local TV news station back in the late 80's or early 90's. Some tech guru was being interviewed about TV via the internet. The news anchor (an idiot, but that's a different story) kept trying to compare it to channels. He kept referring to cable TV's 200 channels and asking how many channels there would be on the web. The techie kept trying to explain the concept of URLs which wasn't widely understood by most people then. He'd say that there would be thousands of URLs that you could enter and the anchor would come back with "So there will be thousands of channels? How can anyone watch all that?".

The techie finally gave up.
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#15 OFFLINE   bscoles

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 02:33 PM

Internet delivery could potentially be possible in 2010 for some provided they are not BW capped. Personally, I don't think 2010 is a realistic time frame for both technical and practical reasons. Also, Internet 'enabled' also does not directly translate to a complete model of watching TV from the Internet or IPTV.


If you were to combine technologies, it could almost be indistinguishable from existing DVR technology. So you could browse your guide for shows, then set them to 'Record'(download) as a series link - downloading when they became available. Live viewing could be more problematic, but stream BW adjustments could allow it to be tailored to the BW available.

Local, Regional & National shows could be delivered to common connected server farms that could then redestribute throughout the nation.

The only thing is, I have not seen any hardware, software or business models that currently attempts to do any of the above examples in a self contained form. Not that any of my examples are the end all, be all... but I do think it's going to require a combination of technologies. Closest, so far, is the on-demand feature in the DirecTV DVR.

In the end though, it's not the technology that is going to limit it's availability in the next few years. What is going to have to change is the large Media Behemoths to change their direction away from what it perceives as a tried and true method 'mass' delivery to a new approach. Even locals could attempt to compete, but would require a major change in the business model and mindset. Yes, in some ways it is heading that way, what with hulu and netflix, etc. making offerings. But these are all currently designed not to displace the current method.

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#16 OFFLINE   BAHitman

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 02:40 PM

Time Warner tried that "pay by the kilobyte" stuff here in Austin, and due to public outcry, cancelled the "test' of that service...

It is going to take the consumer to complain, or competition to make a difference...

Here in Austin, the normal rate is 7Mbit, but in areas where there is FIOS, TWC has it raised... I so wish FIOS would come to the Austin area so I can get decent internet speeds...
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#17 OFFLINE   Ken S

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 02:54 PM

Do you ever feel like "the good old days" were less than 10 years ago?


The good old days are in front of us...unless of course you're betting long term on old, stop-gap technology like hard-drive based single DVRs and one-way satellite delivery of content. They won't go away totally anytime soon, but an HR2x will pretty much akin to running a Commodore 64 before very long. I think we'll see adoption really start around 2011 and the "gold rush" around 2013 - 2015.

We may see the concept of networks go away as well...production studios and/or networkks may choose to go direct to customers.

Edited by Ken S, 05 August 2009 - 03:05 PM.


#18 OFFLINE   The Merg

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 03:05 PM

Sure it's possible that total on-demand internet-based delivery is possible in the future, but you need 15Mb downstream on a pretty reliable basis... that's what "high speed" means in 2009. (I remember when 1200 baud, or roughly .001Mb, was high speed.)


1200 baud?!? My first modem was for my C64 at a whopping 300 baud... :D

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#19 OFFLINE   Stuart Sweet

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 03:14 PM

Luxury! My first modem was the kind where you had to put the phone handset in a cradle! (Technically not a modem but an acoustic coupler!)
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#20 ONLINE   SayWhat?

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Posted 05 August 2009 - 03:50 PM

^^^^ Would you like to play a game Professor Falken?
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