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Guest Message by DevFuse

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Could this kill DVD's & Blu-ray?


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27 replies to this topic

#21 OFFLINE   4HiMarks

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Posted 13 November 2009 - 10:35 AM

I think you misinterpreted me. IMHO the days of physical media of any type are numbered. You won't have to worry about scratching a disk, or having a multi-terabyte drive, when every movie ever made is available online, streaming directly to any playback device you choose, anywhere you want, instantaneously, for pennies per showing.

It might not happen tomorrow, but I would be very surprised if it had not yet happened 20 years from now.
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#22 OFFLINE   rudeney

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Posted 13 November 2009 - 11:16 AM

streaming directly to any playback device you choose, anywhere you want, instantaneously, for pennies per showing.


I wouldn't count on that, unless you are counting in hundreds. This is really no different than the PPV models we have now, and they are already $5+.

#23 OFFLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 13 November 2009 - 12:04 PM

It might not happen tomorrow, but I would be very surprised if it had not yet happened 20 years from now.

No worries....I'll either be dead or drinking dinner through a straw by then. :D
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#24 OFFLINE   4HiMarks

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Posted 13 November 2009 - 02:01 PM

I wouldn't count on that, unless you are counting in hundreds. This is really no different than the PPV models we have now, and they are already $5+.


Note that I am talking about 2009 pennies. How much do you think today's $5 movie rentals would be in 1990 dollars?

And I'm also speaking of bandwidth. How much would it have cost 20 years ago to get 15-20mbps download speeds? Heck, even 10 years ago. Twenty years from now, we will all probably have gigabit (or higher) fiber to the home. Look at the speeds they have right now in Korea and Japan.

How much does an average long distance phone call cost today, compared to 20 years ago? Can't be measured, it's so small.

Now consider storage. A 1 TB drive was unbelievably large and expensive just a few years ago. I can remember when hard drives dropped below $1000 per GB. Now you can get 4-8 GB flash drives free as promotional items, or under $20 if you need to buy one. In 20 years, you'll be carrying around petabyte thumb drives. The content providers will have even more capacity. The marginal cost of the space for a single movie will be negligible. Do you worry about the price of the wood taken up by a single book in a bookshelf?

Consider Netflix. I don't subscribe, but if I did, and I really wanted to work it, how many movies could I stream in a month? 30? 60? more? I think they would come out to a lot less than $5 each. Redbox charges $1/movie, and Blockbuster is going bankrupt charging close to $5. HBO and other premium channels cost only pennies per film. PPV is the most expensive option out there, and the price of that is coming down too.
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#25 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 13 November 2009 - 04:19 PM

In your streaming-only model... I can't watch a movie if the internet is down. Also, if power is out and I have a home generator I could watch a DVD but I couldn't watch something from the internet.

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#26 OFFLINE   rudeney

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Posted 13 November 2009 - 07:26 PM

Note that I am talking about 2009 pennies. How much do you think today's $5 movie rentals would be in 1990 dollars?


Well, according to http://www.dollartim...s/inflation.htm, about $2.10. And as I recall, back when I was renting VHS movies, they were $2-$3 each. ;)

#27 OFFLINE   robbiecc

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Posted 26 December 2009 - 09:49 PM

My 1st computer was a Co-Co II and programs were either typed in, on carteges, or a 'data' cassette. Processor was an 8086 and 8K of ram, and the internet-when it finally started was 300 baud. That was maybe 20-25 yrs ago. I took my coco from 8 to 100k ram for more than a 500 gig HD cost now-not adjusting for inflation and $100 was a lot more back then. I've seen alot of these technologies start and where they are today and I wouldn't even hazzard a guess where it will be in 5-10 yrs. I rem a 7 channel tv market in chicago area and stations going off the air at nite-now we have hundreds of channels and they fill the dead time with info mercials(think the off air was better)
Point is, there is no telling what has yet to be invented , improved or perfected, and cost wise I rem cd writers(computer) were over $1000, now you can get a decient lightscribe for under $40. The only thing i would bet on is it will be smaller, faster and cheaper.

#28 OFFLINE   Luck255

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Posted 31 December 2009 - 09:25 PM

Is it just me or does it seem like putting a movie on an SD card and taking it home would turn into just obscene piracy? It takes only a few minutes to start downloading practically any new movie at a poor quality. I can't imagine why movie studios would just give you a perfect digital copy of their work and hope the honor system works out so you buy the movie again in 48 hours.




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