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2010 NFL Discussion


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228 replies to this topic

#51 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 25 August 2010 - 11:11 PM

Personally, I'm fine with 16 games both from an entertainment standpoint AND understanding how grueling it is to play all of those games. I'd even like to see them go from 4/5 pre-season to 2/3 to cut down on those injuries as well.

BUT... we all know the NFL (nor any other corporation) would throw away money by eliminating even pre-season games... so I think we are in when-not-if territory.

I hope that when they go to 18 games they also do the following:

1. Drop at least 2 pre-season games to make up for some of the wear/tear on the athletes.

2. Expand to a 20 week season, giving 2 "bye" weeks to each team.

One of the oddities the way the schedule works now is that some teams get a "bye" early while others get one late... and while injuries are part of the game, some non-injured teams get rest early in the season when they don't yet need it while other teams get rest late in the season to refresh.

One plus for the players in an 18-game season with my proposed 2-bye-week scenario would be that the "byes" could be scheduled so that all teams get an early-season bye and a late-season bye. Still there would be some inequality to it the way it would have to be spread out BUT at least it would be an improvement over the way it is now.

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#52 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 25 August 2010 - 11:13 PM

How would the extra two games affect the time it takes a player to be vested? Now I believe it is three and a half years.


I would hope that the players would ask for it to stay the same number of regular season games to become vested...

So if it is 3.5 years for 16 games, then it would become just slightly over 3 (3.11111) years to vest.

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#53 OFFLINE   JACKIEGAGA

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 08:19 AM

Does anyone know who was calling the pre-season game Cowboys-Texans with Phil Simms?

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#54 OFFLINE   stevenv

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 08:51 AM

Does anyone know who was calling the pre-season game Cowboys-Texans with Phil Simms?


Gus Johnson.

#55 OFFLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 09:11 AM

Interesting week for the "getting ready for the start of the season" games:

Packers roll
Colts Get thumped big time
Cowboys get thumped and look pathetic
Cards and Bears don't find offense
Saints keep marching
Vikings win against medicre team and despite their own big shortcomings
Browns, Bengals, Jets, Raiders all have multiple key injuries

Lots of teams have lots of work to do. Some preseason favorites are floundering in big ways.

Interesting times coming up this week with the first big cuts.
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#56 OFFLINE   JACKIEGAGA

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 09:15 AM

Gus Johnson.


Thanks

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#57 OFFLINE   yosoyellobo

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 11:23 AM

Was the Tampa-Jacksonville game broadcast in HD in the Tampa area. I was not in Jacksonville.

#58 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 01:24 PM

You can't judge the preseason games on much of anything. Sometimes a standout rookie impresses... or a major star gets injured... but other than that, almost nothing about the preseason reflects on the regular season.

I forget who it was a few years ago (coach) who talked about being "champion of the preseason" and how it meant absolutely nothing.

Not too long ago the Colts had a winless preseason and then ran off their first 10 games or so of the season undefeated.

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#59 OFFLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 02:08 PM

You can't judge the preseason games on much of anything. Sometimes a standout rookie impresses... or a major star gets injured... but other than that, almost nothing about the preseason reflects on the regular season.

I forget who it was a few years ago (coach) who talked about being "champion of the preseason" and how it meant absolutely nothing.

Not too long ago the Colts had a winless preseason and then ran off their first 10 games or so of the season undefeated.

There's been enough to see which teams have major holes and which ones don't. The example you gave is a 1 in a 100 exception to that experience.

What is true is that corrections can still be made - trades, pickups from the waiver wire, injury replacements, rebounds by a few players, and a few newbie surprises that surface out of the weeds. Those things make forecasting much more difficult. But there's no doubt the Cowboys, Colts, Bears, Cards, and a few others have some real unplanned problems to overcome.

That could happen, but we saw tons of players and coaches with plenty of worry on their faces after this week's play. Oh and yes - the 3rd game of the preseason does matter, and it tends to create the first major cut list.
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#60 OFFLINE   sigma1914

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 02:52 PM

...But there's no doubt the Cowboys, Colts, Bears, Cards, and a few others have some real unplanned problems to overcome.
...


What are the Colts "problems?" The Colts are still high on lists of experts. The Cards knew they'd have no QB or WR depth. The Cowboys are questionable every year. The Bears aren't even a threat, much like the Cards.

As for whether preseason indicates success, here's some numbers:
http://www.tornbyspo.../nfl-preseason/

I examined the last three preseason’s of the NFL to see if there was any correlation between the records a team reached in the preseason, to the final regular season record.
...
0 Wins= Those teams that won no games in the preseason on average won 6.94 games during the regular season.

1 Win= Those teams that won exactly 1 preseason game did almost exactly one game better during the regular season; They won on average 7.93 games during the regular season.

2 Wins= Those teams winning two preseason games won on average 8.37 games during the regular season again an improvement from those that won one game.

3 Wins= Those winning three games did only slightly better (than those teams winning two games) winning 8.39 regular season games.

4 Wins= Here is where it gets interesting to me. Those winning 4 preseason games only won on average 5.66 games during the regular season.


http://www.twominute...ason-matter.htm

Our data sample covers the seasons from 1997 to 2005...
* Preseason wins are generally a positive sign for a team
* Good teams can succeed regardless of their preseason, but see less dropoff in wins with better exhibition results
* Average teams are much better prospects if they post three or more preseason wins


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#61 OFFLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 03:00 PM

What are the Colts "problems?" The Colts are still high on lists of experts.

Lack of bench depth, high proportion of older players than many other teams.
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#62 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 04:08 PM

The problem with pre-season, in terms of gauging regular season performance is multi-fold, in my opinion:

1. Starters/stars don't try as hard because pre-season doesn't count, they don't want to be injured, they don't want to give anything away to opponents too early, and they already know they have made the team.

2. Rookies, conversely, try harder in pre-season because they don't want to get cut.

3. Coaches don't want to give anything away either... also, will go for 4th downs in pre-season just to try something out OR will not go for a tie/win late in the game because the game doesn't count like it would in the regular season.

So... they don't "play to win the game" like in the regular season... Starters will play MUCH harder in regular season games... Rookies might actually have a let-down or hit the rookie-wall in the regular season once the pressure of making the team is over... and Coaches want to win in the regular season, don't care in the pre-season.

Think of last season, where the Colts started 14-0, then lost their last 2 games because they no longer were trying to win... then went to the Superbowl and lost a closely contested game.

Those 2 games they "gave" away because of being meaningless are very much like preseason games... and clearly were not at all indicative of the rest of the Colts' season.

Injuries matter in pre-season... as do rookies making the team (or not)... but almost everything else about any preseason game is useless to extrapolate to how that team will play the regular season.

To go the other way... I'm pretty sure one of the Carolina Panthers' recent 8-8 or worse seasons followed a 4-0 preseason.

The good teams that know what they have, don't care... The bad teams might get wins playing against those teams... but when the regular season starts and everything matters, the cream rises to the top.

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#63 OFFLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 04:28 PM

Seems some folks are confusing their Fantasy Football leagues with the real ones... :D:lol:
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#64 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 07:39 PM

Seems some folks are confusing their Fantasy Football leagues with the real ones... :D:lol:


That sounds more like what you are doing, actually... assuming regular season will follow from pre-season performance.

FYI, another good example...

I'm pretty sure the year Detroit went 0-16 was a year that they went 4-0 in the pre-season. That obviously did not help them when the games counted.

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#65 OFFLINE   sigma1914

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Posted 29 August 2010 - 08:13 PM

That sounds more like what you are doing, actually... assuming regular season will follow from pre-season performance.

FYI, another good example...

I'm pretty sure the year Detroit went 0-16 was a year that they went 4-0 in the pre-season. That obviously did not help them when the games counted.


You're right about Detroit.
Here's the preseason records of the last 11 Super Bowl champions:
2009 - NO - 3-1
2008 - PIT - 3-1
2007 - NYG - 4-0
2006 - IND - 1-3
2005 - PIT - 3-1
2004 - NE - 1-3
2003 - NE - 4-0
2002 - TB - 3-1
2001 - NE - 3-1
2000 - BAL - 4-0
1999 - STL - 3-1
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#66 OFFLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 06:38 AM

You're right about Detroit.
Here's the preseason records of the last 11 Super Bowl champions:
2009 - NO - 3-1
2008 - PIT - 3-1
2007 - NYG - 4-0
2006 - IND - 1-3
2005 - PIT - 3-1
2004 - NE - 1-3
2003 - NE - 4-0
2002 - TB - 3-1
2001 - NE - 3-1
2000 - BAL - 4-0
1999 - STL - 3-1

Contrary to a few defensiveposter spins on the subject....this seems to further validate that preseason DOES matter 9 of the past 11 years, as far as showing a team headed in the right direction for the Super Bowl.

Sorry guys....some of your teams are already in trouble this year.
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#67 OFFLINE   sigma1914

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Posted 30 August 2010 - 08:48 AM

Contrary to a few defensiveposter spins on the subject....this seems to further validate that preseason DOES matter 9 of the past 11 years, as far as showing a team headed in the right direction for the Super Bowl.

Sorry guys....some of your teams are already in trouble this year.

You're the only person who thinks Indy is in trouble. :lol:
Did you miss this?
http://www.tornbyspo.../nfl-preseason/

I examined the last three preseason’s of the NFL to see if there was any correlation between the records a team reached in the preseason, to the final regular season record.
...
0 Wins= Those teams that won no games in the preseason on average won 6.94 games during the regular season.

1 Win= Those teams that won exactly 1 preseason game did almost exactly one game better during the regular season; They won on average 7.93 games during the regular season.

2 Wins= Those teams winning two preseason games won on average 8.37 games during the regular season again an improvement from those that won one game.

3 Wins= Those winning three games did only slightly better (than those teams winning two games) winning 8.39 regular season games.

4 Wins= Here is where it gets interesting to me. Those winning 4 preseason games only won on average 5.66 games during the regular season.


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#68 OFFLINE   Boston_bill

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Posted 06 September 2010 - 10:03 AM

As a Patriots fan I cant stand the Jets. They have potential to be the biggest flop this year.

#69 OFFLINE   sigma1914

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Posted 06 September 2010 - 10:07 AM

As a Patriots fan I cant stand the Jets. They have potential to be the biggest flop this year.


Flop? As in going undefeated then losing the Super Bowl? :lol:
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#70 OFFLINE   carlsbad_bolt_fan

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Posted 06 September 2010 - 10:11 AM

As a Patriots fan I cant stand the Jets. They have potential to be the biggest flop this year.


Well, they finally got Revis signed. Biggest mistakes they made were acquiring LT & Cromartie. I'm a Chargers season ticket holder and have seen every down those two have played. LT has lost a two steps and Cro had only one good season.

BTW, those of you attending Jets games this season, watch what Cromartie does while the play comes in sidelines for the defense. He's always, and I mean ALWASY about 10-15 yards away from the defensive huddle. He's not talking to the coaches either. He'll just stand there, hands on hips.
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#71 OFFLINE   sigma1914

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Posted 06 September 2010 - 10:21 AM

Well, they finally got Revis signed. Biggest mistakes they made were acquiring LT & Cromartie. I'm a Chargers season ticket holder and have seen every down those two have played. LT has lost a two steps and Cro had only one good season.

BTW, those of you attending Jets games this season, watch what Cromartie does while the play comes in sidelines for the defense. He's always, and I mean ALWASY about 10-15 yards away from the defensive huddle. He's not talking to the coaches either. He'll just stand there, hands on hips.


Neither were signed to be #1s...LT was signed to give Greene rests. Cro was signed to compliment Revis.

Most corners don't waste energy going to the huddle when their job is to sick the WR. Watch old games of the best cover CB ever, Deion, & you'll see him do the same.
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#72 OFFLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 06 September 2010 - 11:45 AM

It sure didn't take long for Leinert to catch on somewhere else....Texans.
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#73 OFFLINE   JACKIEGAGA

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Posted 06 September 2010 - 11:46 AM

Jets are overated!

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#74 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 06 September 2010 - 02:39 PM

The NFL is really hard to pick in modern times... because even good teams that return all of their players don't always play as good the next season.

Look at New England, for example...

The year Brady got his first Superbowl... the following year they were something like 9-7 and didn't even make the playoffs I don't believe.

Then the mostly same team goes and wins back-to-back in the Superbowl.

Most of the rest of the teams since then don't tend to do very well at all the next season... and usually 1 or 2 horrible teams rise to being a good team the next year.

There are some consistencies, like the Colts who seem to always do well in the regular season... though not so much in the playoffs... or the Chargers who seem to like to start by losing 3-4 games and then having to win out to make the playoffs and then beat someone they probably shouldn't.

It's just really weird to me... and not counting injuries that derail seasons... I am always perplexed at how team performance varies so much from year to year with mostly the same roster.

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#75 OFFLINE   JACKIEGAGA

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Posted 07 September 2010 - 01:58 PM

If anyone wants in Yahoo NFL Pro Pickem
Here is the link
http://www.dbstalk.c...ad.php?t=182136


Still not to late if anyone wants in NFL Pro Pickem click the link above.

Thanks Joshjr for setting it up

JACK,
 
 





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