Replace 3D above with HD - it is just deja vu all over again.
I think you are both right and wrong here
You are right... some said the same thing about HD too... and to be honest, as much as I love my HD... HD was available via OTA in my market before anywhere else since WRAL was the first channel to broadcast digital HD OTA in the US... but when I signed on with Dish in 2002, I didn't even have an HDTV.
I didn't get an HDTV for another year or two after that... and didn't get an HD receiver from Dish until another year after that... by which time arguably HD had been around nearly 10 years! And Dish was the HD leader at that time... with the 5 channels that were available!
So... IF you are going to make the comparison of 3D and HD... this 3D technology right now is barely a year or two old in terms of an available channel. Dish and DirecTV were nearly 10 years late to the HD party in some respects!
I would say waiting to see if 3D is around for 5 years might be prudent AND would still put Dish ahead of the HD adoption curve.
Infact HD was a lot more of an investment - one HD channel ate the bandwidth of 6 SD channels.
All things being equal, though... doesn't a 3D channel take the same space as 2 HD channels, given the left/right frames? Or is it not quite twice the bandwidth due to compression efficiency?
Every other movie this summer offered 3D......the horror, fantasy and cartoon crowd must be buying tickets or the movie makers wouldn't be messing with it.
Perhaps... but how is the box office doing on all those movies?
Avatar was a big hit, mostly because people liked the movie AND also because it was 3D... so Hollywood jumped into 3D development after that and we are seeing the fruits of that labor this summer... but I guarantee you if box office draw continue to underwhelm for most of those 3D films, we won't see the trend continue in subsequent years.
Like when a particular sitcom or drama hits it big... then next season each network tries 2 versions of that same formula... and most of them crash and burn. Check out the super-hero movie trend.
Marvel started with Blade, X-Men... Spider-Man, stumbled a bit with the first Hulk movie, then had Iron Man and has been back on a high... DC countered with another Superman that floundered and a Batman that hit highs, but had a Green Lantern that missed horribly this year.
As long as more super-hero movies make big money... they will keep making them... AND they will make more, even for less-popular characters... but a few more flops like Green Lantern, and Hollywood will decide to turn away from super-heroes again for a few years.
That's what has historically happened with 3D... It comes around, makes a splash, then gets overused for bad movies... then goes away again. It remains to be seen if 3D is here to stay this time OR is just another glitch.