Solved the 202 error with a complete uninstall/reinstall, including saying yes to removing user settings during uninstall. Didn't work when I told it to not remove them on the first try and then reinstalled, but it did work when I allowed it to remove the user settings when uninstalling again.
On this second reinstall, it decided to re-register, which seemed to be the trick: it gave a warning that the PC's license was messed up, which it seemed to fix automatically during reactivation, and it did not improperly consume another license count, which is good.
So it's up and running again, but the self implosion was pretty disconcerting.
Edited by AndrewSi, 14 October 2011 - 11:23 AM.