Jump to content


Welcome to DBSTalk


Sign In 

Create Account
Welcome to DBSTalk. Our community covers all aspects of video delivery solutions including: Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS), Cable Television, and Internet Protocol Television (IPTV). We also have forums to discuss popular television programs, home theater equipment, and internet streaming service providers. Members of our community include experts who can help you solve technical problems, industry professionals, company representatives, and novices who are here to learn.

Like most online communities you must register to view or post in our community. Sign-up is a free and simple process that requires minimal information. Be a part of our community by signing in or creating an account. The Digital Bit Stream starts here!
  • Reply to existing topics or start a discussion of your own
  • Subscribe to topics and forums and get email updates
  • Send private personal messages (PM) to other forum members
  • Customize your profile page and make new friends
 
Guest Message by DevFuse

Photo

Hard disk drive shortage looming


  • Please log in to reply
20 replies to this topic

#1 OFFLINE   TBoneit

TBoneit

    Hall Of Fame

  • Registered
  • 2,276 posts
Joined: Jul 27, 2006

Posted 20 October 2011 - 08:50 AM

I wonder how this will affect DVR supply and releases of new models.

From Here http://finance.yahoo...6&asset=&ccode=

"The personal computer industry, already reeling from depressed demand, has been dealt another setback: Massive flooding in Thailand has curtailed production of a critical component -- computer storage drives.

Factories producing a third of the country's hard drives have temporarily closed as flooding has gradually spread since August. Prices have spiked, and Apple warned that its Mac products will likely be affected.

And this "Gartner Inc. analyst John Monroe called the disruptions "very serious and ongoing" and said they affect production of roughly half of the "spindle" motors that turn the hard disks, along with other technologies. Monroe expects slowdowns through March."
Computer manufacturers, the companies that supply hard drives and the makers of components for those drives are all bracing for troubles. What's not yet clear is what extent PC production lines will be affected and whether PC makers will absorb costs or pass them along to consumers.

Thailand makes about a quarter of the world's hard drives and is the second-largest producer behind China"

Reading the whole article Seagate and Western Digital warn of delays.
Remember when your kids were the TV set's remote control?

...Ads Help To Support This SIte...

#2 OFFLINE   phrelin

phrelin

    Hall Of Fame

  • Registered
  • 13,406 posts
  • LocationNorthern California Redwoods
Joined: Jan 18, 2007

Posted 20 October 2011 - 09:13 AM

Time to start using SSD's as the principal drive in new computers anyway. That would free up some inventory.

"In a hundred years there'll be a whole new set of people."
"Always poke the bears. They sleep too much for their own good."

"If you're good enough, they'll talk about you." - Tom Harmon
A GEEZER who remembers watching TV in 1951 and was an Echostar customer from 1988 to 2008, now a Dish Network customer.
My AV Setup
My Slingbox Pro HD Experience
My Blog: The Redwood Guardian


#3 OFFLINE   harsh

harsh

    Beware the Attack Basset

  • Registered
  • 18,662 posts
  • LocationSalem, OR
Joined: Jun 14, 2003

Posted 20 October 2011 - 10:02 AM

Time to start using SSD's as the principal drive in new computers anyway. That would free up some inventory.

Isn't there some question of the SSD useable life or is that like the outdated Plasma argument?

I can't imagine using a technology that is projected to last less than a year. Once blocks start getting mapped out, the situation will get exponentially worse. With DVRs, there's almost always more writing than reading.

SSDs would surely be a hard lesson for those who refuse to turn off their DVRs what with buffering content 24/7 (100GB of buffering per day for an HD channel).

Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought. -- JFK


#4 OFFLINE   phrelin

phrelin

    Hall Of Fame

  • Registered
  • 13,406 posts
  • LocationNorthern California Redwoods
Joined: Jan 18, 2007

Posted 20 October 2011 - 10:53 AM

Isn't there some question of the SSD useable life or is that like the outdated Plasma argument?

I can't imagine using a technology that is projected to last less than a year. Once blocks start getting mapped out, the situation will get exponentially worse. With DVRs, there's almost always more writing than reading.

SSDs would surely be a hard lesson for those who refuse to turn off their DVRs what with buffering content 24/7 (100GB of buffering per day for an HD channel).

While you wouldn't use one for a DVR, generally today most SSD's in computers will become outdated before they die just like most mechanical magnetic hard drives. But just like mechanical drives, SSD's can fail.

All I was suggesting is using them as the primary drive for new computers, although I recognize that depending upon use there are some potential problems with that.

It seems to me that in a world where tablets are the trend and there may be a shortage of mechanical hard drives, we would see a shift away from the mechanical drive as the primary on computers.

"In a hundred years there'll be a whole new set of people."
"Always poke the bears. They sleep too much for their own good."

"If you're good enough, they'll talk about you." - Tom Harmon
A GEEZER who remembers watching TV in 1951 and was an Echostar customer from 1988 to 2008, now a Dish Network customer.
My AV Setup
My Slingbox Pro HD Experience
My Blog: The Redwood Guardian


#5 OFFLINE   TBoneit

TBoneit

    Hall Of Fame

  • Topic Starter
  • Registered
  • 2,276 posts
Joined: Jul 27, 2006

Posted 20 October 2011 - 11:06 AM

harsh, going beyond the cost. Intel warrants their current SSD line at 3 years except for their 320 series that has a 5 year warranty.

How much of a SSD is used can affect lifespan too.
If we take two drives and write the same amount of data to them but one is at 40% used and the other is at 90% used the 90% used will last a shorter time. The higher unused space allows wear leveling to have more room to spread the wear caused by writes.

Likewise if we take 120Gb SSD and partition it to 100Gb it will last longer as the unused space is used by the wear leveling.

While you wouldn't use one for a DVR, generally today most SSD's in computers will become outdated before they die just like most mechanical magnetic hard drives. But just like mechanical drives, SSD's can fail.

All I was suggesting is using them as the primary drive for new computers, although I recognize that depending upon use there are some potential problems with that.

It seems to me that in a world where tablets are the trend and there may be a shortage of mechanical hard drives, we would see a shift away from the mechanical drive as the primary on computers.


phrelin: All my computers use SSD boot drives as of this year. In the case of the desktop I also use 7200RPM data drives. Laptops just the SSD.

I went to them for speed of booting and opening programs and saving time at shut down too.

Edited by TBoneit, 20 October 2011 - 11:11 AM.

Remember when your kids were the TV set's remote control?

#6 OFFLINE   Orion9

Orion9

    Legend

  • Registered
  • 193 posts
Joined: Jan 31, 2011

Posted 20 October 2011 - 11:20 AM

I've been in the computer industry since 1975 and I don't think I remember a time when there wasn't a warning about a shortage of something. I can't remember it ever being really noticeable at the user level though. Typically prices rise a bit (or don't fall as fast as they otherwise might have) and that balances the supply and demand.

BTW the SSD drive in this PC is 3 years old. No issues yet.

#7 OFFLINE   harsh

harsh

    Beware the Attack Basset

  • Registered
  • 18,662 posts
  • LocationSalem, OR
Joined: Jun 14, 2003

Posted 20 October 2011 - 11:28 AM

I've been in the computer industry since 1975 and I don't think I remember a time when there wasn't a warning about a shortage of something.

Usually it is been RAM. In most all cases, whatever we're "short of" comes from Taiwan.

Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought. -- JFK


#8 OFFLINE   TBoneit

TBoneit

    Hall Of Fame

  • Topic Starter
  • Registered
  • 2,276 posts
Joined: Jul 27, 2006

Posted 20 October 2011 - 11:32 AM

I've been in the computer industry since 1975 and I don't think I remember a time when there wasn't a warning about a shortage of something. I can't remember it ever being really noticeable at the user level though. Typically prices rise a bit (or don't fall as fast as they otherwise might have) and that balances the supply and demand.

BTW the SSD drive in this PC is 3 years old. No issues yet.


You don't remember some of the price spikes in memory that drove the price way up?
Remember when your kids were the TV set's remote control?

#9 OFFLINE   Jim5506

Jim5506

    Hall Of Fame

  • Registered
  • 3,464 posts
Joined: Jun 07, 2004

Posted 20 October 2011 - 07:49 PM

If you just bide your time the market will level out, don't buy when prices spike.
Tuners: Hopper 2000; Hopper w/Sling; 3 Joeys; Samsung SIR-T351; Accurian 6000;2 X HD TiVo; 2 X TiVo Series 2 Stand alone; Panasonic Showstopper 2000
Dish 1000.2 @ 110, 119, 129; dish 500 @ 61.5
Antennas - CM4228; RS U75-R; coathanger; Funke PSP.1922 (stillin the box); paperclip
Displays: Sony VPH D50Q with HD Fury HDMI input; Hitachi 57F59; Sony Bravia LCD;Sanyo 32" LCD; Panasonic 42" plasma
Sony 80GB PS3; Toshiba HD-DVD

Give me a Finco colinear array and I'll rule the world - HA-HA-HA-HA!

#10 OFFLINE   FastNOC

FastNOC

    Godfather

  • Registered
  • 409 posts
Joined: Sep 11, 2007

Posted 20 October 2011 - 10:54 PM

yeah I can't even imagine trying to replace my platter drives with SSD lol. they are still tiny, and EXTREMELY expensive per GB in comparison.

I just installed an OCZ vertiex 3 in my workstation, and it has TRIM issues with windows still.

The technology is way too new (and the write limitations will be veritually gone very soon, as theyr'e already talking about the next versions being 100X more write capability. but you'd rarely keep a drive that long). and the prices are absolutely insane.

You'd be buring way more money trying to replace your platters with SSDs than waiting for any shortage to subside. By a mile.

#11 OFFLINE   Dave

Dave

    Icon

  • Registered
  • 864 posts
Joined: Jan 28, 2003

Posted 21 October 2011 - 12:09 AM

Just wondering why this is not in the Tech Forum?

#12 OFFLINE   P Smith

P Smith

    Mr. FixAnything

  • Registered
  • 19,830 posts
  • LocationMediterranean Sea
Joined: Jul 25, 2002

Posted 21 October 2011 - 01:00 AM

Just wondering why this is not in the Tech Forum?

Because of line: drive-platters-dishes-dish :)

#13 OFFLINE   TBoneit

TBoneit

    Hall Of Fame

  • Topic Starter
  • Registered
  • 2,276 posts
Joined: Jul 27, 2006

Posted 27 October 2011 - 03:31 PM

yeah I can't even imagine trying to replace my platter drives with SSD lol. they are still tiny, and EXTREMELY expensive per GB in comparison.

I just installed an OCZ vertiex 3 in my workstation, and it has TRIM issues with windows still.

The technology is way too new (and the write limitations will be veritually gone very soon, as theyr'e already talking about the next versions being 100X more write capability. but you'd rarely keep a drive that long). and the prices are absolutely insane.

You'd be burning way more money trying to replace your platters with SSDs than waiting for any shortage to subside. By a mile.


I do not believe the technology is too new. More like some of the makers haven't shaken out yet.

I do not believe the write limitations will go away soon since the trend is towards memory being used in the SSDs that is less durable rather than more durable. When they shrink the die size they seem to shrink the durability.

I hate to say it to you but you bought something that based on user reviews isn't a good drive. I have heard that the latest firmware does help.

What I bought for my Desktop and Laptops is mostly Intel 5 year warranty SSDs, Samsung & Kingston too. I bought the small Kingston & Samsung SSDs and I used them to back up the boot drives because a "Friend" asked me to order them, then after I ordered he then changed his mind, so I found a use for them.

The only Non SSD boot drive in the house is a older computer that only has IDE connectors.

I suspect that SSD bargains will slow down due to the flooding.
When I look at the recent NewEgg e-mail specials I am not seeing hard Drives lately. I used to see 1Tb, 2Tb & 3Tb on sale all the time.

This From Western Digital

"In mid-October we temporarily suspended production at our two factories in Thailand, which have been inundated by floodwater, to protect our employees and our equipment and facilities. We manufacture approximately 60 percent of our hard drives in Thailand. With the greatest direct manufacturing exposure to the flooded areas, the impact on our business in the short term will be greater than to other HDD manufacturers.

In addition, many of our component suppliers have been impacted, leaving material for hard drive production considerably constrained"

Edited by TBoneit, 27 October 2011 - 03:44 PM.

Remember when your kids were the TV set's remote control?

#14 OFFLINE   Davenlr

Davenlr

    Geek til I die

  • Registered
  • 9,090 posts
Joined: Sep 16, 2006

Posted 27 October 2011 - 03:34 PM

Teach em to outsource everything overseas...Come on back to America guys!

Tivo Premier XL4, Tivo Premier, Tivo HD whole home on Xfinity HD, DirecTv Whole Home with 39" high gain KaKu dish, Roku3,SageTv 8 TB Win8 Server -> DVDO Edge-> Denon AVR, Klipsch KB15's/Panasonic 55ST60 plasma"


#15 OFFLINE   TBoneit

TBoneit

    Hall Of Fame

  • Topic Starter
  • Registered
  • 2,276 posts
Joined: Jul 27, 2006

Posted 28 October 2011 - 11:59 AM

More good news today:

One major computer maker is saying:
Quote
At this point in time, we anticipate constraints on supplies of HDDs to begin in mid-November. Snip... Unfortunately, it is very uncertain when the HDD industry will fully recover its production capacity, but we currently expect shortages to last into the first calendar quarter of 2012.
End Quote
Remember when your kids were the TV set's remote control?

#16 OFFLINE   phrelin

phrelin

    Hall Of Fame

  • Registered
  • 13,406 posts
  • LocationNorthern California Redwoods
Joined: Jan 18, 2007

Posted 01 December 2011 - 11:34 AM

From Cnet yesterday:

Micron Technology said today that demand is increasing for solid-state drives in the wake of the flooding in Thailand.

Since late summer, the prices of traditional spinning hard disk drives have been steadily rising because of shortages due to flooding in Thailand. That country accounts for about 70 percent of global hard drive-related production. And recently Hewlett-Packard CEO Meg Whitman said that large customers are calling HP because they can't get drives.


"In a hundred years there'll be a whole new set of people."
"Always poke the bears. They sleep too much for their own good."

"If you're good enough, they'll talk about you." - Tom Harmon
A GEEZER who remembers watching TV in 1951 and was an Echostar customer from 1988 to 2008, now a Dish Network customer.
My AV Setup
My Slingbox Pro HD Experience
My Blog: The Redwood Guardian


#17 OFFLINE   P Smith

P Smith

    Mr. FixAnything

  • Registered
  • 19,830 posts
  • LocationMediterranean Sea
Joined: Jul 25, 2002

Posted 01 December 2011 - 03:15 PM

And I'm pinching myself for ignorance to stop at Costco last Friday and get Goflex 2 TB external drive for $69 ! Really foolish behavior ! :D

#18 OFFLINE   phrelin

phrelin

    Hall Of Fame

  • Registered
  • 13,406 posts
  • LocationNorthern California Redwoods
Joined: Jan 18, 2007

Posted 01 December 2011 - 06:09 PM

And I'm pinching myself for ignorance to stop at Costco last Friday and get Goflex 2 TB external drive for $69 ! Really foolish behavior ! :D

Well!!! And why didn't you pick one up for me too????:D

"In a hundred years there'll be a whole new set of people."
"Always poke the bears. They sleep too much for their own good."

"If you're good enough, they'll talk about you." - Tom Harmon
A GEEZER who remembers watching TV in 1951 and was an Echostar customer from 1988 to 2008, now a Dish Network customer.
My AV Setup
My Slingbox Pro HD Experience
My Blog: The Redwood Guardian


#19 OFFLINE   P Smith

P Smith

    Mr. FixAnything

  • Registered
  • 19,830 posts
  • LocationMediterranean Sea
Joined: Jul 25, 2002

Posted 01 December 2011 - 06:20 PM

Where is you've been a few days ago !!!! YOU SHOULD POST AND PM SUCH DEALs TO US IMMEDIATELY !!! :D

#20 OFFLINE   JeffN9

JeffN9

    Legend

  • Registered
  • 178 posts
Joined: Apr 14, 2007

Posted 02 December 2011 - 11:31 AM

I checked Newegg yesterday and it appeared that most of the 2tb EHD's had almost doubled in price from what they were a month ago. I think if you can still find one at a reasonable price you might want to grab it.




Protected By... spam firewall...And...