So if TWC makes a reasonable offer to DIRECTV then yes they'd probably make a deal. But remember Dish doesn't offer any of the NYC RSN's so DIRECTV may decide to take the same path in the second largest TV market.
I don't think they will. DirecTV is headquartered here, and has a HUGE customer base here. They offered locals here pretty much from the beginning (just like New York).
On top of that, the Lakers DMA is huge. It contains everything south of Fresno in California, including all of San Diego, it contains the entire state of Hawaii, it includes Las Vegas and major areas of Nevada, and it even contains portions of Arizona. With 18 million in the Los Angeles Greater Area alone, the entire DMA easily encompasses 30 million people.
If Los Angeles had an AVERAGE amount of DirecTV customers, using 300 million Americans, they would have had 2 million out of the 20 million DirecTV customers.
However, due to favorable weather, a HUGE mess in the Adelphia failure in 2006/2007, and the fact that DirecTV is headquartered here and heavily advertises here, I think that number is probably at least 3 million, maybe even 4 million customers within the Lakers DMA.
In my Neighborhood, I have seen 1 Dish Network dish, and dozens of DirecTV dishes. And it is that way most neighborhoods I drive through, DirecTV seems immensely more popular than Dish Network.
Where Dish has decided not to focus on sports, sports is what people come to DirecTV for.
The Lakers are probably one of the most important teams to have for DirecTV, together with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Celtics.
Personally, I won't cry if they don't carry them. The only time I watch basketball, is with the Olympics... and even then I am more interested in other sports. So I will continue to be with DirecTV if they don't carry this network. But there is a HUGE amount of Lakers fans who will take no time to switch to TWC (which also covers 90% of the Lakers DMA, Cox covering the other 10% in south OC, and Las Vegas) who automatically already carry the networks in HD.
This is pretty much a "must have" for DirecTV. But yeah, it has to make financial sense. But since DirecTV is also a "must have" for TWC, I am sure they will make a deal.