The future is direct IP access to content (either free or subscription) and it is only the providers standing in the way of that. The sooner they are driven out of the picture, the better off we consumers will be.
I think content over IP will be an additional service, to add on to existing television service, but won't replace it any time soon. For starters, 30% of the United States can't get more than about a 3 Mbps connection through DSL, and it doesn't look like there are much initiatives to change that. About 10% of the United States live so rural, it would cost a fortune to wire up those small towns for any type of decent internet connection.
You can't push a single HD stream through that, let alone turning on 2 or 3 TV's in your house. Those people will always have a satellite service of some sort. Right now DirecTV has 20 million customers, Dish about 14 Million. Given the average of 2.1 persons per household, one could conclude that about 70 million Americans receive their television through a satellite dish, either because they choose to (which is most) or because they have no other alternative.
I don't believe this is going to change.
What I do believe will happen is that DirecTV and Dish at some point (and I do believe Dish already does something along these lines with some form of international channel package) will ADD IPTV services to their boxes, for those that have a capable internet connection. This way, DirecTV could actually deliver sub channels to each market, international (news) channels, independent channels, internet-only channels, etc, etc.... and place them on a channel number on your receiver, where it will just tune in to a internet supplied stream when you hit that channel instead of a satellite feed.
I, for one, would be quite happy with a selection of international news channels (e.g. BBC, Al Jazeera, RT, etc, etc) provided via IP, so they show up on my receivers without having to use a separate device to tune in to them.
I believe that DirecTV and Dish will transform in to a hybrid service. With the upcoming 4kHD technology, for which DirecTV says they will be ready, and first Quad/Ultra/4k (however you want to call it) HD services launching around 2016, IPTV is going to have a bit of a harder time, as for a clear 4kHD picture, CURRENTLY a 160 Mbps connection is required, but with advances in encoding/compression, they can probably knock that down to about 40-50 Mbps, which is not the type of connection most Americans will have, not in 2016, not even in 2020. (Of course the internet connection might be there, but will it be able to deliver more than 1 stream? And it will certainly not be there for everyone in the U.S.) So there is future in satellites for quite some time. But DirecTV will probably at some point start to offer IPTV services over the internet as a "add on" package, for channels not worth carrying on satellites.
We'll see how this develops.