You would be surprised. Take SyFy...
SyFy collects an average of $0.21 per subscriber (slightly higher than the industry average of 20 cents), and is currently available in 98 million homes. That's roughly $20 million dollars per month. Meanwhile, SyFy gets about 1.2 million viewers. To break even, if offered a la carte, and purchased only by people that watch it, they would need to collect over $16 per month.
If we use that value as an average, your "package" of 9 cable channels and 4 locals would cost you well over $200 per month.
Interesting numbers but I think you should say "maintain their current subscriber income" instead of "break even" since we don't know what their profits are and they are getting money from commercials as well. If they have to lower their price to remain competitive and maybe produce a few less Sharktopus movies per year to stay within their budget, I am OK with that.
HBO shows that you can be a la carte and successful. All I know is a world where sports networks pay escalating sums of money for rights fees that they expect MSOs to then take out of everyone's pockets is eventually doomed to failure. I heard on the news that the number of cable/satellite subscribers continues to drop and while the percentage is still high, I am sure it will continue to drop as rates keep increasing. I think D* is realizing this too as they are becoming slow to add new sports nets like the Pac-12 and the new TWC Lakers channel. Sports at least need to be a la carted immediately and I say this as a sports fan. If ESPN is going to charge HBO like subscriber fees, then they need to be a la carted the same way.