I didn't say they would go away...but they will change dramatically.
Viewers (particularly young viewers) are developing direct relationships with content providers. Today, providers like HBO only offer their content to viewers with a cable or satellite subscription, but sooner or later everyone will have access to their library, either by direct subscription or PPV. While I'm not saying products like Roku is the final answer, it is an indication of where things are going.
It is economics that will drive the changes. As fewer and fewer viewers feel the need to have cable or satellite service, the costs of operating these systems will be borne by fewer and fewer subscribers. This will drive up costs to the consumer, which will drive more cord-cutting. We can see this already...if you total the subscriber numbers of all the cable and satellite companies, the total number has been decreasing...not by much, but there has been a steady erosion. The cable are companies are also seeing a sharper decline in multichannel revenue, but that is being at least partially offset by increases in internet services.
My son is a perfect example. He lives in Greenwich Village and has Time Warner Cable for internet only. He watches TV via his Xbox360 from Hulu, Netflix and Amazon.
Satellite has faired a bit better than cable, but that is only a temporary phenomenon. Satellite subscribers are a self-selected group of people for whom linear TV is important. But eventually, the trends that are driving cable will effect satellite as well.
It's not going to happen tomorrow, but it will happen. Remember that when DirecTV and Dish Network got started they weren't an "economically viabale" alternative to cable. They lost money for a decade. The same will be true for whatever comes next...maybe it won't be IPTV, but I have to give Charlie kudos for at least putting a toe in the water of the that market.
I totally disagree. The economic forces are working against it. As streaming gets heavier, the caps and cost will skyrocket. The Internet method of television delivery will not be able to get to a point where it is enough to make a difference. I've had this discussion over and over here. For years and years.
For every student I know who uses Internet access primarily, I know several who watch shows when they air on liner channels. The stories of the new generation of tv watching and direct relationships to networks are overblown.