Foolish to think this is not going to happen.
Two keys reasons:
1. HD cameras are now dirt cheap, can be hand held and produce stunning HD/Movie quality video. This is going to be the un-doing of Hollywood's control and they know it. Anyone can now produce a movie or tv show on the cheap and distribute it without Hollywood's blessing. Content is dirt cheap and getting cheaper.
2. Pure economics. TV is an elastic product. This means if the price of coke increases to a certain level people will buy a substitute. If no substitute exists they will stop drinking soda. Don't be fooled, at a certain price people will stop watching tv and find an alternative which includes torrents. To think otherwise means you don't understand economics or read history.
Look at google fiber, this is the first shot across the bow of the content providers but they had no choice but to work with google. Why? Google could produce 10 tv shows without anyone ever noticing a blip on their balance sheet. Netflix is already going down this path.
Hollywood is losing control due to these cameras and that is the key here. Sat racer et al, you guys are kool aid drinkers. History is filled with markets being decimated. Half the dow companies from the 1980's are gone. Just a few years ago it was sears then walmart now amazon is killing them all. Some comedy writer is now sticking it to the shaving industry to the point they lowered prices and are now fighting back via commercials. I can go and on and on and on. Content providers are no longer immune from market disruption due to these cameras.
Kid, you're on a roll. Enjoy it while it lasts, 'cause it never does.
That's not how the Walmart and Amazon P&L sheets tell the story. Your comment about Sears might be accurate, but not Walmart. Amazon.com in no way is killing Walmart. Walmart posted a $27 Billion profit in 2012. Capital B. Amazon on the other hand lost 60 cents a share in Q3. Amazon isn't even in the same league as Walmart. They are Northern Illinois to Walmart's Alabama.
Hollywood is not losing control. The companies that own the networks report record profits. How is that losing control?
I think you under estimate the cost to produce programming. How much does something like Game of Thrones cost to produce? Google says $60M dollars for the first season. Even for Google, that's a lot of cash to risk on something that might fail.
Tech history is also not on your side re your comment about HD cameras being cheap... Just because a camera is cheap doesn't mean that people who know how film, direct, edit, write and act are. This is the same argument that anti-luddites made when YouTube came out, and when Amazon started selling independently authored books, and when Apple made it easy for any garage band in America to "professionally" record their own music and release it through iTunes. And to this day - truly professionally produced content from the major publishers and record lables still dominates. And YouTube is nothing more than a gathering place for people to watch the latest oddity - i.e Gangnum Style. History is not on your side.
Edited by tulanejosh, 03 January 2013 - 06:53 PM.