P12N needs to secure some top football games in order to get the distribution it seeks. Games like Stanford-Oregon and Notre Dame-USC. But it won't because FOX/ESPN is paying billions of dollars.
BTN lucked out in that Michigan was upset very early on it's network. Had that not happened, who knows if it would have picked up as much distribution as it did.
I doubt that very much. It had good distribution before it even started. They had other things going for them. A big population center and a large alumni base that is scattered around the country. Being the first major conference to have its own network. Backing of Fox Sports. And not being overly greedy (good pricing outside footprint). And being early on the curve of the sports channel explosion.