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DirecTV sees 4K TV having 'material impact' by 2016


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#51 OFFLINE   inkahauts

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 05:50 PM

They won't have MPEG-4 versions of SD channels if those channels are available in HD. If and when they go to all MPEG-4, they'll simply go with the HD versions for all subscribers.

 

If there is no hd version, then you'll have mpeg4 version in sd, which WILL happen.  There's tons of LIL channels that will never be anything other than sd. No point in wasting time upconverting a sd only and forever channel to hd just for mpeg4 when you can send it sd mpeg4 and let the box convert it and not waste the bandwidth



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#52 OFFLINE   inkahauts

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 06:23 PM

I'll just point out that DirecTV thought 3D would have a material impact on their business too. We saw how that worked out.

 

True, although I don't think they thought it would ever have an impact as great as 4k will..  4k is the evolution of today's hd, 3d was a whole other market trying to coexsist.  Very different worlds. And 3d has a chance still, if they can ever make 3d sets that don't require glasses.



#53 OFFLINE   JosephB

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 06:58 PM

If there is no hd version, then you'll have mpeg4 version in sd, which WILL happen.  There's tons of LIL channels that will never be anything other than sd. No point in wasting time upconverting a sd only and forever channel to hd just for mpeg4 when you can send it sd mpeg4 and let the box convert it and not waste the bandwidth

 

No kidding. I'm referring to the overwhelming majority of channels that have HD feeds available. When DirecTV gets ready to shut down SD/MPEG-2, they will not duplicate those channels that have HD available in an MPEG-4 SD feed.



#54 OFFLINE   JosephB

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 06:59 PM

I'll just point out that DirecTV thought 3D would have a material impact on their business too. We saw how that worked out.

 

No one said whether it would be a positive or negative material impact :)


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#55 OFFLINE   slice1900

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 08:16 PM

My point is they will need an mpeg4 version running before they shut off the moeg2 version. And they will want them simultaneous for a little while for sure. I suspect they will slowly kill conus channels to force stragglers along before they kill lil mpeg2 and then just do a market or two at a time.

No reason an sd only channel can't be shown in mpeg4 native as that's what thy do with some now.

I fully expect the next ten boxes to do hvec and them not stopping new sd installs till that equipment is out. And I dont see any reason other than maybe over the air reception as to why DIRECTV would need to include mpeg2 decoding in their next gen boxes if they can get mpeg2 decoding for over the air into a new AM5x type box. That might save them lots if money per box so I would think they'd at least consider that.

 

 

Taking out MPEG2 would save almost nothing. 90% of the MPEG2 patent pool will have expired by 2015 - that's barely a year away. The rest won't last much longer than another year or two after that - completely expired before Directv ever has a chance to dump MPEG2.

 

I doubt you could buy an MPEG4 decoder that doesn't also do MPEG2, so you probably can't avoid it even if you don't want it.


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#56 OFFLINE   JosephB

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 08:20 PM

Taking out MPEG2 would save almost nothing. 90% of the MPEG2 patent pool will have expired by 2015 - that's barely a year away. The rest won't last much longer than another year or two after that - completely expired before Directv ever has a chance to dump MPEG2.

 

I doubt you could buy an MPEG4 decoder that doesn't also do MPEG2, so you probably can't avoid it even if you don't want it.

 

Dropping MPEG 2 has nothing to do with license fees, and you're also right about MPEG 4 hardware also being MPEG 2 capable. It's not about saving money in the boxes either. It's all about saving bandwidth on the satellites (and, to a lesser extent, reducing the amount of hardware required at the broadcast centers. Encoders don't last forever)



#57 OFFLINE   slice1900

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 08:33 PM

Dropping MPEG 2 has nothing to do with license fees, and you're also right about MPEG 4 hardware also being MPEG 2 capable. It's not about saving money in the boxes either. It's all about saving bandwidth on the satellites (and, to a lesser extent, reducing the amount of hardware required at the broadcast centers. Encoders don't last forever)

 

I was responding specifically to inkahauts suggestion that the next generation of boxes could have the ability to decode MPEG2 removed if there were MPEG4 versions of all the SD only channels. He said they "might save lots of money" by doing so. I don't agree.

 

I still think his idea of adding MPEG4 versions of all the MPEG2 SD only channels today/soon makes no sense. There's no point in adding them up front, it just wastes bandwidth. You only do so as you remove the MPEG2 versions. The only reason you'd need the MPEG4 version for a long time in advance would be if there were receivers that could decode MPEG4 but were incapable of decoding MPEG2.


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#58 OFFLINE   JosephB

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 08:49 PM

Any MPEG-4 capable receiver will be capable of downconverting HD, so there will never be a reason for putting up SD duplicates in MPEG 4. The only SD channels that would EVER be in MPEG 4 would be channels that do not have an HD feed available. 



#59 OFFLINE   HDTVFreak07

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 08:23 AM

Was just at Best Buy yesterday.  I walked past the new 4K (UHDTV) and had to pull out my handkerchief to wipe off my drooling.  I stood up close, like inches, and could not find a single pixilation.  Wow, such amazing picture on it! 



#60 OFFLINE   Diana C

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 09:04 AM

IMHO, the biggest obstacle to 4K adoption is the huge success regular HD has been.  With so many HD sets out there, many (most?) of which are under 5 to 7 years old, it will be a decade before we will again see the sort of turnover in TVs that we have seen in the past 10 years (indeed, the manufacturers have been pushing 3D, "smart" TVs and now 4K to try and keep sales volumes and prices high).  The message was sent to the consumers (rightly or wrongly) that they needed to replace their analog sets with digital ones to be able to watch TV.  Watching a HD broadcast downconverted to SD on an analog set was, to put it mildly, an unpleasant viewing experience (letterboxed 16x9 on an analog 4x3 screen).  This factor does not exist in 4K.  There will be no 4K broadcasting for a long time.  4K will be mostly a Blu-ray, and perhaps PPV, format for the forseeable future.  This will slow upgrades.  Sure, people with the room and desire for 80" and larger screens will buy 4K sets (these folks bought the first generation 1080p sets as well, so they are a lot closer to replacing them than most).  But I'd be amazed to see 4K reach 30% market penetration before the next decade, and widely available 4K content will follow even later.

 

Both DirecTV and Netflix's announcements about 4K are far less about technical direction than they are marketing ploys to attract the higher end consumer that will be willing to pay a premium price for 4K content (and are more likely to spend more money on the 1080p content offered today than the average viewer). 


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#61 ONLINE   Laxguy

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 09:32 AM

I wonder if more 4k sets will be sold in the next few years than those HiFi buffs that have and use tube amps?!

 

I am hoping ESPN will jump on the bandwagon, and HBO and Showtime. If so, I am in. 


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#62 OFFLINE   JosephB

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 09:54 AM

IMHO, the biggest obstacle to 4K adoption is the huge success regular HD has been.  With so many HD sets out there, many (most?) of which are under 5 to 7 years old, it will be a decade before we will again see the sort of turnover in TVs that we have seen in the past 10 years (indeed, the manufacturers have been pushing 3D, "smart" TVs and now 4K to try and keep sales volumes and prices high).  The message was sent to the consumers (rightly or wrongly) that they needed to replace their analog sets with digital ones to be able to watch TV.  Watching a HD broadcast downconverted to SD on an analog set was, to put it mildly, an unpleasant viewing experience (letterboxed 16x9 on an analog 4x3 screen).  This factor does not exist in 4K.  There will be no 4K broadcasting for a long time.  4K will be mostly a Blu-ray, and perhaps PPV, format for the forseeable future.  This will slow upgrades.  Sure, people with the room and desire for 80" and larger screens will buy 4K sets (these folks bought the first generation 1080p sets as well, so they are a lot closer to replacing them than most).  But I'd be amazed to see 4K reach 30% market penetration before the next decade, and widely available 4K content will follow even later.

 

Both DirecTV and Netflix's announcements about 4K are far less about technical direction than they are marketing ploys to attract the higher end consumer that will be willing to pay a premium price for 4K content (and are more likely to spend more money on the 1080p content offered today than the average viewer). 

 

This, 100%. Completely agree.

 

Additionally, for the TVs that do get upgraded to 4K through attrition and that being the default, people are not necessarily going to pay extra for 4K just like there are millions of 3D TVs out there an obviously no one is paying extra for 3D content.



#63 OFFLINE   Diana C

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 10:27 AM

All the talk about how DirecTV will move satellites, services, dishes and receivers around to support 4K is pretty wild speculation.  Given that they are STILL installing new SD customers it is highly unlikely that they have any plans to discontinue this service in the forseeable future.  Likewise, speculation that HBO or some other premium movie channel will broadcast in 4K would seem a lot more plausible were someone to start broadcasting in 1080p (it has been nearly 5 years since DirecTV HD receivers were upgraded to support 1080p). The FAR more likely scenario is that 4K will be offered the same way 1080p is today - as PPV only.

 

Let's get real. DirecTV has been selling HD capable equipment and offering HD content for almost 10 years, yet are still selling and supporting SD installations, with NO indication that policy is about to change.  It will likely be 2024 or (much) later before DirecTV starts shutting down MPEG2 SD broadcasts.  If and when MPEG2 is finally turned off, making the 32 Ku transponders at 101 available, it is most likely that traditional HD will be moved from Ka at 99 and 103 onto those transponders (since ALL HD receivers can already receive those frequencies) and any new broadcast formats will use the liberated capacity in Ka and perhaps the newer RDBS capacity.  That way, those that want 4K linear broadcasting (if anyone does), or whatever new services are offered by then, will pay for any required equipment upgrades themselves.


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#64 OFFLINE   slice1900

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 12:38 PM

I wonder if more 4k sets will be sold in the next few years than those HiFi buffs that have and use tube amps?!

 

I am hoping ESPN will jump on the bandwagon, and HBO and Showtime. If so, I am in. 

 

 

If ESPN jumps on the bandwagon, I'll bet they have a 4K channel, but with few events actually produced in 4K. So it will be HD only 95% of the time, and only 4K for short periods of time. Nonetheless, people who bought 4K sets will be bragging about how great it looks, even when they have Sportscenter on.


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#65 ONLINE   Laxguy

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 01:28 PM

Heh. Well, I'll need more than crumbs, but not a lot more. 


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#66 ONLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 01:56 PM

Like any other market driver to date....content and its availability will drive the 4K HDTV momentum.

 

It was a heavily promoted technology at this past January's CES, and I anticipate it will be even more visible < 60 days from now at CES 2014.

 

Things like 4K HDTV cameras, blu ray players that support 4K native content, as well as content producer/programming (and delivery) support will determine if this mainstream in the future.

 

Realistically, it's several years away from being commonplace, but that said....during my visit this past weekend - the 4K HDTV displays, demos, and displays were quite significant at the nearby Best Buy location. The demos seem to be driven with 4K content from 4K enabled Blu Ray players - and the presentations were quite significant and impressive. Still...the price-tags were equally "significant".


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#67 OFFLINE   slice1900

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:11 PM

Of course places like CES and Best Buy will be promoting 4K. HDTVs are getting so cheap there's little profit to be made there now, and they're worried about Chinese companies taking over that market and driving prices so low the companies in Japan and Korea can't compete.

 

So they're pushing some new technology with high profit margins, until the profit gets squeezed out of 4K and they go onto the next thing to push, like gesture control, smartER TVs, 3D4K, 8K, or whatever :)


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#68 ONLINE   hdtvfan0001

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 05:54 AM

Of course places like CES and Best Buy will be promoting 4K. HDTVs are getting so cheap there's little profit to be made there now, and they're worried about Chinese companies taking over that market and driving prices so low the companies in Japan and Korea can't compete.

 

So they're pushing some new technology with high profit margins, until the profit gets squeezed out of 4K and they go onto the next thing to push, like gesture control, smartER TVs, 3D4K, 8K, or whatever :)

Unfortunately...that's only 1/2 real.

 

Nearly all of the best-selling HDTV's are manufactured by non-Chinese companies, so that part isn't really in play.

 

In terms of larger margins...there is some substance to that view...although the manufacturing costs of newer technology is also exponentially higher earlier in the life cycle of those products...so the margins aren't actually as high as some would think. 

 

Mass production and more sales brings down prices and costs - ultimately achieving sales through volume.

 

Fact is we're simply seeing more manufacturers adopt the 4K HDTV standard in terms of offering products. We'll have to wait and see how the adoption rate unfolds...


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#69 OFFLINE   Rockaway1836

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 07:08 AM

Was just at Best Buy yesterday.  I walked past the new 4K (UHDTV) and had to pull out my handkerchief to wipe off my drooling.  I stood up close, like inches, and could not find a single pixilation.  Wow, such amazing picture on it! 

I'm afraid I went beyond drooling. I bought one yesterday.



#70 OFFLINE   jimmie57

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 07:31 AM

I just ran across this sale for 4k TV. Wow, what a drop in price.

http://www.sears.com...05_05771550000P


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#71 OFFLINE   P Smith

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 07:56 AM

Could you post the model/mfg or SKU? The link not reveal the TV, perhaps found me overseas.

#72 OFFLINE   jimmie57

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 08:03 AM

Could you post the model/mfg or SKU? The link not reveal the TV, perhaps found me overseas.

Seiki 50" Class 4K 120Hz LED Ultra HDTV - SE50UY04


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#73 ONLINE   longrider

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 08:19 AM

If you've never heard of Seiki, you're not the only one. The China-based company made its first push into the US TV market in early 2013 by selling 4K-resolution TVs for thousands less than traditional TV brands.

 

What was that comment about Chinese manufacturing??

 

The overall review was not very complimentary: http://reviews.cnet....7-35828367.html


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#74 ONLINE   yosoyellobo

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 08:20 AM

Can't wait to be invited to somebody house and see somebody watching a 4k tv in SD.

#75 OFFLINE   jimmie57

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Posted 19 November 2013 - 09:33 AM

It will be years if ever that I move on from my 1080p sets.


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