Just think, in the future, individual household will get ads aim at their shopping habits!
Although I have not watched very many commercials in their entirety (other than Victorias Secret) since winning a Betamax in a contest in 1978 (and I have mixed feelings about that since commercial air time sales indirectly pays my salary), studies show that most people, even those with DVRs, do not skip commercials. They may walk the dog, pinch a loaf of their own, or make a Dagwood sandwich, but most folks let the commercials blare on in the background. Studies also show commercial ads are effective, but of course those studies are self-serving so may not be accurate at all. Personally, I don't see how the GEICO commercials are effective in any way, for instance.
What Druce is positing here might not be going to happen, but here is what is happening and what will happen:
First, most large market stations connect to cable outlets via direct fiber, and many of those send different commercials to cable viewers than they do to OTA viewers. That's been the reality for some time.
But here is what I predict. Broadcasters have many categories of commercials, but most fall into one of three. There are spots picked individually for particular avails, spots picked to run within a particular hour and/or particular day or daypart, and "ROS" which means Run On Schedule and refers to the cheap spots that can be plugged in anywhere.
One of the problems with DVRs is it delays the commercials as well as the program; if Sony Pictures wants to advertise on Thursday (which is why Thursday has the best programs) it doesn't do them much good if you only play back their commercial when you watch the show after that particular movie has already left the theatre. So +3 and +7 DVR rates are not desirable and don't mean much.
But the technology is there for DTV, for instance, to work with a broadcaster to have a group of generic ROS commercials that they can push to your DVR in the wee hours, and if a show is played back after 7 days, those commercials can be inserted on the fly locally per viewer, covering those commercials that folks don't want to pay for. They could even report back how many watched or FFWD-ed through the commercial, which is much more accurate than the current model which just assumes a particular number of eyeballs.
I don't think that is happening yet, but check back in a year or two. This might even breathe new life into the old business model.
Edited by TomCat, 29 December 2013 - 12:06 PM.