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If the AT&T/DirecTV merger goes through


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#1 OFFLINE   satcrazy

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Posted 15 May 2014 - 04:27 PM

What will it mean for Dish?

 

 

apparently dish and direct had a meeting in March that produced "0".

 

 

 

maybe dish and verizon?


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#2 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 15 May 2014 - 07:47 PM

What merger?  You mean a Dish/DirecTV merger?  The recently rumored AT&T/DirecTV merger?

 

There are too many rumors of mergers over the years for me to keep track and so far the only one that is happening is the Comcast/Time Warner one I think.


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#3 OFFLINE   some guy

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Posted 16 May 2014 - 01:49 AM

Dish and Direct merger isn't happening.

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#4 OFFLINE   satcrazy

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 11:14 AM

Sorry,

 

I was reffering to the direct/At&T merger.

 

"If " it goes through, what might that mean to Dish?


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#5 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:42 PM

I'm not sure it means anything to Dish.  I'm not being flippant...  but AT&T was already a competitor... as was DirecTV... and DirecTV was already a bigger competitor to Dish...  so from a Dish perspective, I don't see how this merger would make any difference to Dish if it goes through.


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#6 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 12:43 PM

Fixed topic title to match topic starter's intended discussion.


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#7 OFFLINE   Orion9

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 02:43 PM

I noticed a poll on the portal page about the AT&T merger. According to voters there, 9% think this will make DirecTV better. The rest of the votes are for No, Don't know and Don't care.

I'd say it's too soon to guess. (Unless you're one of those talking heads on a financial channel that gets paid to whip up guesses.)

The company I worked for years ago did a deal with AT&T that failed miserably due to dramatically different corporate cultures and expectations. Especially about timelines – we were developing products in the same time it was taking them to develop presentations of how they planned to determine what the products should be like and how they would determine whether we were meeting the customer's needs. Total mismatch. The product and service never saw the light of day. But some upper level managers thought they had agreed… on… something. :)

#8 OFFLINE   tampa8

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 02:51 PM

I'm not sure it means anything to Dish.  I'm not being flippant...  but AT&T was already a competitor... as was DirecTV... and DirecTV was already a bigger competitor to Dish...  so from a Dish perspective, I don't see how this merger would make any difference to Dish if it goes through.

 

 

Completely agree. Depending on how At&t runs Direct TV, could be better for DISH I suppose. 


Edited by tampa8, 19 May 2014 - 02:52 PM.


#9 OFFLINE   Hunter844

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 04:04 PM

My immediate thoughts were of Dish buying up wireless spectrum and so forth. Was that to make them appear more valuable to a company like Verizon? I forget the details of that and what immediate impact if any that it's had for them.

It just seems like there have been some chess pieces moved around the board the last few years and with Att taking over Direct it's an obvious signal that AT&T wants to be in more households and devices (multi platform) and in order for them to expand they needed to get into the sat tv business. Verizon undoubtedly will want the same.

The next question I see a lot of people ask is how this affects NFL SUNDAY TICKET, and to that I figure nothing will change in the immediate future. However if wouldn't surprise me if AT&T customers who bundle with Direct will get a chance to stream Sunday Ticket on their mobile device or some such.
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#10 OFFLINE   James Long

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 04:13 PM

Some of the comments in the press release validate DISH's plans for expanding DISH beyond satellite TV. The positive is that if AT&T is willing to follow that plan then it can't be all bad. The negative is that it takes away one more distinctive and competes with DISH at all levels. I was hoping DISH would get a niche ... but good ideas are copied/stolen.

DISH has been the little pay TV system that could for nearly two decades. They still can and will.
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#11 OFFLINE   Drucifer

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:22 PM

What will it mean for Dish?

 

 

apparently dish and direct had a meeting in March that produced "0".

 

 

 

maybe dish and verizon?

 

Or Google.

 

But will any of these mergers get approved?


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#12 OFFLINE   Jim5506

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 07:42 PM

I read a commentary buy some pundit that said AT&T wanted DirecTV because it would boost profits.

 

I wonder if that means they will be boosting prices also.

 

Actually might be good for Dish.


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#13 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 19 May 2014 - 08:43 PM

I haven't been keeping 100% track... but I believe the Comcast/Time Warner merger is still on the table for approval as well.  In some ways, it might be a bad idea for AT&T and DirecTV to be trying this before that gets approved.  Some of the same rationale could be used to block this one IF the Comcast/Time Warner merger is rejected.  And, having this on the horizon might make folk in that room tend to reject Comcast/Time Warner if they don't want to see mergers like this becoming the norm.

 

We could end up with none of these mergers happening because all of them tried to happen at the same time.


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#14 OFFLINE   James Long

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 12:13 AM

I read a commentary buy some pundit that said AT&T wanted DirecTV because it would boost profits.


Profits for AT&T. Another $5 billion per year including Latin America.


I wonder if that means they will be boosting prices also.


Prices don't go down. Perhaps in a year one will be able to get today's prices in a bundle (commit to over priced services and think you're getting a discount). But prices don't go down. Even if all DirecTV does is maintain the status quo of annual price increases prices will go up.
 
 

We could end up with none of these mergers happening because all of them tried to happen at the same time.


I don't see why AT&T should have to wait 12-18 months for Comcast-Time Warner to be decided before they can start their own ~12 month process. The only reason to wait is if they felt that the regulators were going to make an emotional outburst decision "NO TO ALL!". While there will probably be some back room politics AT&T purchasing DirecTV may have a better chance to be approved in comparison to Comcast-Time Warner.

The combined footprint of AT&T and DirecTV isn't much bigger than the existing footprint of DirecTV (adding only potential customers without line of sight in UVerse areas). There will still be effective competition from whatever cable company is local in each UVerse area ... and competition from DISH in most areas (limited only by the difference in line of sight).

The biggest argument against AT&T purchasing DirecTV is "it is too big". I don't see regulators saying 20 million pay TV subscribers is fine but 26 million pay TV is too many. If they did they might as well draw the line at 20 million and tell DirecTV (without AT&T) to get rid of the excess subscribers as they are "too big".

In the cellular marketplace we have two large companies that have been allowed to operate. They provide competition for each other ... some would argue not enough competition but enough to pass government approvals. While consumers may disagree I believe regulators will accept AT&T's purchase of DirecTV.
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#15 OFFLINE   sregener

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 04:01 AM

Prices can and do go down.  So far, cable and satellite prices have not, but that does not mean that prices can only go in one direction.

 

Reading over on the DirecTV forum, it seems a lot of people are looking to drop DirecTV if/when this goes through.  I suspect Dish will be a very viable alternative for those people.  But I don't see DirecTV as a company that is hurting for investment and would benefit from AT&T's infusion of cash, so it seems improbable that DirecTV will become a more formidable opponent in the future.



#16 OFFLINE   James Long

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 05:04 AM

Prices can and do go down.  So far, cable and satellite prices have not, ...


Isn't that the prices that matter?

It seems that the only time priced "do" go down one gets less for the money. For example, DirecTV lowered the price of their lowest regular package a couple of years ago by introducing "Entertaiment" (roughly AT120) instead of having "Choice" (roughly AT200) as their lowest tier. A price decrease? Temporary offers are available for some but the price climbs.

DISH lowered the "price" of AEP a few years back ... and took away included features such as DVR service. On the surface it may look like a reduction ... but actual prices for similar purchases go up. It is very rare to see a price decrease that is not 100% or more countered by a fee increase or loss of included features/content.
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#17 OFFLINE   satcrazy

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 10:40 AM

Thanks for the insight.

I was thinking the proposed merger might make both sat co.'s a "david and goliath" scenario, but I don't under estimate Ergan. He may sit out this dance. If the merger goes through, he has the At&t merger as an example to fall back on if he also attempts one. [ Google? never thought of that one!] I think the extra bandwidth he holds gives him the upper hand, regardless.

I still feel dish is more user friendly than direct, having had both services.

I wonder if at&t would try and change the way direct deals with CS operations. [ extending perks like lowering monthly rates when a customer calls in to complain, adding free channels for a few months, etc...] I never was offered any of these perks while I was a direct customer, but dish, I have to say, has been more generous.
I don't follow at&t services, but I've not heard about perks they provide. [ Yes, I appreciate the perks]

I imagine the merger could take a long time to be Accepted or negated.

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#18 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 11:29 AM

I don't see why AT&T should have to wait 12-18 months for Comcast-Time Warner to be decided before they can start their own ~12 month process. The only reason to wait is if they felt that the regulators were going to make an emotional outburst decision "NO TO ALL!". While there will probably be some back room politics AT&T purchasing DirecTV may have a better chance to be approved in comparison to Comcast-Time Warner.

I don't have any real skin in the game...  it was more thinking out loud.  I agree they shouldn't have to wait... but at the same time, I think they probably will have to wait.  I mean, I imagine the queue starts with Comcast/Time Warner and AT&T/DirecTV will probably have to wait until that gets approved or rejected before their merger is reviewed.

 

I don't know if it will be an all-or-nothing scenario... but given the way this stuff goes, I could easily see it become one if the right people take it up...  Each merger should be approached as a unique thing... but I have to think people in the room will look at the landscape and say they see other mergers coming IF they approve this one or the next one... and I could see it swaying opinion.

 

It's the same precedent either way.  If one goes through, the next can say "you let them do it"... but if one fails it could become "no soup for you"...


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#19 OFFLINE   satcrazy

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 12:14 PM

It's the same precedent either way. If one goes through, the next can say "you let them do it"... but if one fails it could become "no soup for you"...

My point.

Here's another question:

Since both parties agreed to the deal, are they then locked in for the entire waiting period? Meaning, if a better deal came along with someone else can they get out of existing one?

chris


#20 OFFLINE   sregener

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 01:02 PM

Isn't that the prices that matter?

 

The past is a horrible predictor of the future.  Just because something has never happened doesn't mean it won't.  You stated that prices do not go down.  While that has historically been true for pay television, it is not universally true and it may not be true about television prices in the future.

 

I really do think we're on the edge right now.  Pay television has become so expensive thanks to all the bundling agreements that it is becoming extremely viable for people to cut the cord.  The number of pay television customers declined last year.  Not a lot, but it actually shrank.  If this trend continues, prices will *have* to come down.

 

Subscription channel-based television is doomed to follow the newspapers.  It will still exist in some form, but will become a shell of its former self.






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