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If the AT&T/DirecTV merger goes through


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#21 OFFLINE   James Long

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 03:58 PM

Since both parties agreed to the deal, are they then locked in for the entire waiting period? Meaning, if a better deal came along with someone else can they get out of existing one?


That would be up to the wording in the contract. DISH paid $690 million in merger termination costs when the deal to buy DirecTV fell through. There is probably some penalty for backing out written into the contract (for other than the specific reasons stated in the contract that allow one party or the other to end the deal).
 
 

The past is a horrible predictor of the future.  Just because something has never happened doesn't mean it won't.  You stated that prices do not go down.  While that has historically been true for pay television, it is not universally true and it may not be true about television prices in the future.


Again, I'm talking about pay TV ... not the price of beans or anything else in the universe. I believe you are overly optimistic if you believe prices of pay TV will go down.

 

If this trend continues, prices will *have* to come down.


The pay TV providers will just keep fighting over the remnants. Perhaps drop a few channel from their cheaper packages - or drop channels totally. Increase fees instead of prices and hide the cost increases.
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#22 OFFLINE   DoyleS

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 05:03 PM

I tend to think the days of the mega program packages are probably numbered.  Live TV is very important for Sports.  No sportsfan wants to DVR an event and then have some bozo tell them the score before they have a chance to watch it so most sports are watched live in a particular area.   The various drama shows can all be DVR'd and watched at convenience but the Hulus and other streaming services are cutting into that.  Watching those shows a week late is not a problem for most people and at less than $10/mo it is hard to justify the price of a major cable bill.  Apple TVs and Roku boxes make it all pretty simple since most people will have a reasonable internet connection.    Bundling phone, internet and TV is not going to be the deal it was when you can use your cell phone,  Magic Jack or Vonage to save money. 

Dish bought Blockbuster and what do we have to show for it.  Not a lot.  

 

The ATT/DTV deal is attractive if DTV can keep the NFL package.  Without it,  ATT can back out of the deal. 

Bottom line.......Times are a changing.  There is a lot more good programming available that any one of us can even watch. 


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#23 OFFLINE   inkahauts

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 08:02 PM

If sprint can't get T mobile maybe they will go after dish. Heck they may anyway.

Otherwise I look for Verizon too. And soon.

#24 OFFLINE   James Long

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 11:13 PM

I don't see DISH as being a company looking for a buyer ... they are more of a company looking to buy.

The headline "AT&T agrees to buy DirecTV" is apt. DirecTV was looking for a buyer - or at least very open to the concept. They were even open to the concept of being bought by DISH. (A deal which would have been difficult and expensive - DISH lost $690 million in 2002 not buying DirecTV - an outcome that should not be repeated.)

Look at companies DISH can afford and you'll find the ones that are most likely to be purchased. Not companies that can afford to buy DISH but companies that DISH can afford to buy.


There is always a chance that one of the companies DISH approaches will turn around and ask "why don't we buy you"? With the current ownership structure that is more difficult and would require Mr Ergen's agreement to sell. DISH was not created as a "build it and sell it" empire. I do not expect it to be sold while Mr Ergen is alive.
Welcome to DBS Talk - Let's talk about DBS! (The Digital Bit Stream)
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#25 OFFLINE   inkahauts

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Posted 20 May 2014 - 11:47 PM

Pretty sure Verizon is bigger than dish. And so is sprints parent company. Just saying.

But yeah could easily be the reverse and dish go after several of the little regional players too and build a new national.

#26 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 12:08 AM

The bigger companies do not always buy smaller ones.  Quite often, actually, smaller companies buy larger ones.  Sometimes companies in bankruptcy even buy solvent companies!  Many examples out there.


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#27 OFFLINE   James Long

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 12:16 AM

Pretty sure Verizon is bigger than dish. And so is sprints parent company. Just saying.


I believe the people suggesting Verizon Wireless + DISH or Sprint + DISH are thinking of DISH being bought - or at least some sort of "merger of equals".
 
 

The bigger companies do not always buy smaller ones.  Quite often, actually, smaller companies buy larger ones.  Sometimes companies in bankruptcy even buy solvent companies!  Many examples out there.


A weak big company can be bought by a smaller company as a turnaround opportunity. Personally I'd expect DISH to buy a weak smaller company.
Welcome to DBS Talk - Let's talk about DBS! (The Digital Bit Stream)
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#28 OFFLINE   damondlt

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:25 AM

The bigger companies do not always buy smaller ones. Quite often, actually, smaller companies buy larger ones. Sometimes companies in bankruptcy even buy solvent companies! Many examples out there.

I think it's safe to say Charlie doesn't have the funds to buy Verizon.
He already claimed Directv was out of his reach.
Directv is worth a quarter of Verizon.

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#29 OFFLINE   Laxguy

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 10:21 AM

I tend to think the days of the mega program packages are probably numbered.  Live TV is very important for Sports.  No sportsfan wants to DVR an event and then have some bozo tell them the score before they have a chance to watch it so most sports are watched live in a particular area.


This sportsfan avoids the bozos and gets to watch a baseball game in less than half the time if it were live, more if he FFs through boring innings. It helps a lot I don't have to go to an office, and that most folks here are thoughtful enough to not tip off scores. But I won't go to FB, unless it's baseball season; none of my "friends" seem to need to report on game number 53.....Other sites are also to be avoided.
"Laxguy" means a guy who loves lacrosse.

#30 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 11:42 AM

I think it's safe to say Charlie doesn't have the funds to buy Verizon.
He already claimed Directv was out of his reach.
Directv is worth a quarter of Verizon.

Sent from my Galaxy S5

 

It isn't a matter of money... at least not directly.  IF Charlie wanted to buy Verizon, and Verizon was open to it...  it wouldn't be that difficult for Charlie to leverage his total worth + the value of a combined company in order to make a merger happen.  Companies get loans all the time to buy other companies... again, smaller/less valuable companies can buy larger ones all the time.  For large loans, many banks offer payback plans that only require you to pay the interest for a while... so a stable company can take out a large loan in order to buy a company with a lot less "down" than you might think... and then when the merger goes through, the combined company is in a position to pay back the bank loan that funded the merger.


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#31 OFFLINE   satcrazy

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 12:05 PM

Now, don't jump on me, but what about Netflix?

Wouldn't that be a crazy deal?





Oh, and another thought, I bet all dish subs are still paying for that 690M$ termination fee.

Edited by satcrazy, 21 May 2014 - 12:11 PM.

chris


#32 OFFLINE   damondlt

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 02:52 PM

It isn't a matter of money... at least not directly. IF Charlie wanted to buy Verizon, and Verizon was open to it... it wouldn't be that difficult for Charlie to leverage his total worth + the value of a combined company in order to make a merger happen. Companies get loans all the time to buy other companies... again, smaller/less valuable companies can buy larger ones all the time. For large loans, many banks offer payback plans that only require you to pay the interest for a while... so a stable company can take out a large loan in order to buy a company with a lot less "down" than you might think... and then when the merger goes through, the combined company is in a position to pay back the bank loan that funded the merger.

Not going to happen.

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#33 OFFLINE   Laxguy

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 03:27 PM

Not going to happen.

He very clearly said "IF". It's a hypothetical, illustrating some key ideas. 


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#34 OFFLINE   damondlt

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:25 PM

He very clearly said "IF". It's a hypothetical, illustrating some key ideas.

I agree with him, he has some good points.
But when it comes to dish buying Verizon. No way on earth.


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#35 OFFLINE   damondlt

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 04:33 PM

Honestly, I think Dish should buy out some of these smaller cable companies before Comcast does.
I would say Cablevision , but I'm sure that ship has sailed.

But there are lots of Cable companies in the USA that my not survive much longer against these major merged companies.
I already heard Comcast has their sites on 3 independent companies here in Eastern pa.



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#36 OFFLINE   James Long

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:36 PM

Honestly, I think Dish should buy out some of these smaller cable companies before Comcast does.


How would that improve DISH's service? If it were a small company making a lot of money it may help bring some cash to DISH's operations - but I see no compelling reason to expand into a business that is generally doing worse than DISH. Any companies purchased need to add value to DISH Network.
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#37 OFFLINE   damondlt

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Posted 21 May 2014 - 05:42 PM

How would that improve DISH's service? If it were a small company making a lot of money it may help bring some cash to DISH's operations - but I see no compelling reason to expand into a business that is generally doing worse than DISH. Any companies purchased need to add value to DISH Network.

I think it would add value. These cable companies all have broadband services right at their doorsteps.

Tens of Millions out there with independent cable services currently

Dish would be Buying the customer base as well as all the land line Fiber.


 

 

 


#38 OFFLINE   Stewart Vernon

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 01:31 AM

I don't know how much fiber there is in the "smaller" cable companies.  I would think Dish would have to buy a larger cable company to get fiber...  and I don't know if Dish would care to buy old/small cable companies without substantial fiber installations.

 

I could see Dish buying a company like Verizon.  Not saying it will or even should happen... but that would expand them in a couple of directions into new markets, get them internet and fiber-optic configurations and a bunch of cellular/wireless to boot.

 

Dish did sort-of try and buy Sprint not too long back... so they could have been testing the waters.


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#39 OFFLINE   Drucifer

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Posted 23 May 2014 - 07:20 PM

Will there be DirecTV dishes on top of every AT&T wireless towers? So that they can feed homes block by trees?


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#40 OFFLINE   inkahauts

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Posted 24 May 2014 - 03:03 PM

Now, don't jump on me, but what about Netflix?

Wouldn't that be a crazy deal?





Oh, and another thought, I bet all dish subs are still paying for that 690M$ termination fee.


I've actually felt DIRECTV should buy Netflix for a long time. Dish has blockbuster. And they failed with it it seems.




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